Here Kitty, Kitty, Kitty

Two games left before the MAC tournament.  BG is still decently positioned to play at home next week, and a win in Athens would close the deal.

BG beat OU earlier this year at the Stroh.  BG won by 16, their biggest win in MAC play.  OU was struggling badly to score at the point in the season.  At that point, OU was 2-7 in MAC play and it was looking like a real struggle for them.  Things have stabilized a little.  They are 3-4 since leaving the Stroh.  They have won 3 in a row at home.

What you have here is the two worst offensive teams in the MAC.  OU is 12th, BG is 11th.  BG is 5th in defense while OU is 7th, which explains BG's 2-game lead over OU.

What's interesting is that OU gets to being the worst offensive team in the MAC in a completely weird--and by that I mean OU--way.  They are actually the 5th best shooting team in the MAC, and you just never see a team be 5th in shooting and last in offense.  They don't take good care of the ball and they are very poor on the offensive boards.  They do a decent job of getting to the line but are 10th in FT%.

They are effective 3FG shooters.  They are shooting 39%...but are 8th in the frequency of shooting the 3.  On 2s, they are 11th.  You can see that things are pretty even.  If BG can defend the shot well...OU was 2-17 from 3FG in the first game...they have a good shot at winning this game.

Flipping it around, BG's struggle is to get some baskets here and there and then get to the line.  That's the way it has worked most of the way.  OU defends the 2 and the 3 about equally well and BG's goal will be get to the basket, I think, and make those close up shots better than they did against Kent.   One last thing, OU plays the 2nd fastest pace in the MAC and BG has the 5th which means that missed shots will have a decent shot of turning into baskets.

Teyvion Kirk is OU's leading scorer at 16.7 PPG.  He's shooting 45% and adds 5.7 RPG.  Mike Lester is scoring 12.9 PPG on 46% shooting and 43% from 3FG.  Jordan Dartis is also scoring 12.5 PPG on 45% and 43% shooting.  Doug Taylor leads the team with 6.1 RPG per game.

So, this is what it comes down.  BG is just a slight hair from being a winning team, but they are not.  OU is tough at home but if BG can put together a stronger effort, even a little, this is one they can win.