Zip Preview, The Sequel

So here we go. Standings-wise, what occurs on Tuesday will be the most important game at the Stroh since Chris Jans left....say the 81-80 Kent loss on March 3.  (If you remember these types of things, BG lost 81-80.  It was the game where Richaun Holmes, inexplicably, under no pressure, tossed the ball to Jehvon Clark on the other side of the timeline for a crushing over and back).

Anyway, here we are again.  BG in 4th place, with something to play for in late February.  Just as before, you have to win to make it matter.  And here is BG, playing Akron.  Akron.  So, no secret here, Akron has just owned BG over the past....oh....10 years.  Now, last year BG beat them at the Stroh for the first time since 2009.

Meanwhile, Keith Dambrot left the building along with most of the players.  (Duquesne is 15-12 and 6-8 in A-10 play, FYI).  John Groce, a proven MAC quantity, took the program over, but the droids we have seen before.

Akron is 4-10 in MAC and have lost 6 of their last 7 games.  Along the way, they lost @Miami, @OU and @Kent.  In fact, they have yet to win a road game in the MAC. 

I read the story about the Kent game in the ABJ, and Groce thinks they are playing better.  Don't know if that is accurate or not.

They have had a tough road.  They were short-handed before and then lost Emmanuel Olojakpoke to heart surgery just before we played them in January and then in that very game Jaden Sayles (another big) was seriously injured with wrist and concussion issues and has not played since.

Akron won the game at the JAR by 1 point in a frustrating loss.  Late in the game, BG got the missed shot they needed but did not corral the OREB and Akron scored late in the possession to win the game.  Had BG even gone to OT, Akron was playing with 3 DQs and Huger and overtime equal victory so it could have been different.

Here's how the stats looked.  Much like BG's last game, Akron outshot the Falcons but BG evened it out at the FT line.  Akron was called for 31 fouls and BG shot 43 FTs in the game.  In fact, BG shot 67%, if they shoot really well they win for sure.

Akron is the 9th best offensive team in the MAC and 12th in defense.  So, you can see where the game's test will be.  How good will BG be at exploiting the Zip defense.  Also, Akron plays at the 8th fastest pace in the MAC.

So, here's the deal.  Akron is the easiest team to shoot against in the MAC and give up the most FTs.  They are 10th defending the 2FG and 11th defending the 3FG.  They do force turnovers but they are poor on the defensive boards.  BG simply has to execute on the offensive end.  They need to make shots and get to the line.  If they do, this is a game that should be won.

The Zips has not a lot better on offense, but as you can see here, their offensive numbers are very similar to BG's season numbers.  BG has been defending better of late against poor teams and if the Falcons can get stops, it just helps the offense even more.

Their leading scorer is Malcom Duvivier.  He's scorig 16 PPG on 42% shooting and makes 37% of his 3FGs.  Jimond Ivey scores 14.5 PPG on a rough 38% and 33% shooting and leads the team with 4.2 APG and 5.8 RPG.  Daniel Utomi scores 13.8 on 40% and 35% shooting and 4.5 RPG.

So an important game this late in the season.  Something to be valued.  BG needs to continue to reverse the Zip domination and turn this into a win that is badly needed.