Friday, February 02, 2018

Flash Preview

As nice as the OU win was, the next game promises to be a more interesting challenge.  Kent State was 6-7 entering MAC play, but are 6-3 in conference play and that includes winning 5 of their last 6.  That includes a win over Buffalo in their last game.  Now, on the other hand, they are only 1-3 on the road and the win was at CMU.  Right now, they are the #3 in the MAC.

Overall, Kent State has gotten where they are by doing everything pretty well...nothing poorly.

To wit, they are #5 in offensive efficiency in the MAC and #7 in defense.  Meanwhile, BG is #10 in offense and #8 in defense.  The key element is going to be on making baskets, where the Falcons continued to struggle even in their last win.  If they're going to keep allowing 1.05 PPP, they will need to score roughly that match to start having a shot at winning.



So when you compare the Kent offense and the BG defense, you see two teams which are pretty much at the same level.  In fact, this is about as evenly matched as you will find.  Kent does shoot well--and that should present a challenge for the BG defense.  They are #3 in the MAC in EFG%.  They are #4 in 3FG and #6 in 2FG and they are #6 the rate of attempting 3FGs...all of which fits the same theme, which is doing most things well but nothing great.


Now, on the other side, BG is 10th in EFG% and Kent is 6th at defending the shot.  As noted, BG's got to pick up the pace here.  BG is #2 in 3fg% but #9 in 2FG%, although they don't take a high rate of 3s.  Anyway, the other element that could be a test.  BG relies on FTs, which they have been getting fewer of.  They need to get back on the wagon with that.


Kent's leading scorer is a 6'2" G...Kevin Zabo.  He's a SR, came to Kent from a JUCO.  He only averaged 5.6 PPG last yeat but this year is north of 18 PPG, #5 in the MAC (in MAC Play).  He's a good shooter, shooting 47% on all FGs and 41% on 3FG.  Their second lead scorer is Jaylin Walker, the better-known player.  He's a JR who was MAC tournament MVP last year.  He's scoring 16.2 PPG, shooting 41% and 39% and 4.2 RPG.

Kent's new transfer (once went to St. John's) is Adonia DeLa Rosa, a 7'0" player scoring 13 a game and averaging 9 rebounds.  He's shooting 55%.  Wiggins struggled on defense against UT and he'll need to be much better on Saturday against DeLa Rosa.

Jalen Avery, their leading assist man, has 34 assists over only 6 turnovers, the top ratio in the MAC and it isn't especially close.

So this is an opportunity for BG to put some of the struggles behind them and hold serve on home court.  Kent is playing well and has strong guards and a big man.  BG is capable of playing their best and taking them down, but that's what it might take.

No comments :