MAC Preview, Ball State up first

The MAC tourney begins.

I have said for a long time that I like the MAC tourney set up the way it is now.  I think that most sports get it wrong when they don't give as much weight as possible to the regular season.  Also, you want to give your best teams the easiest road--as a reward but also to increase the odds that you get an NCAA tournament run and the credit and cash that comes with it.

The argument against that system is that teams can get disproportionate advantage based on minute performance differences.  Obviously, BG makes a last shot in Buffalo Friday and they are #2.  Having said that, they didn't and ended up tied with UT and UT beat BG and I don't think you can argue the seeding.  Whether it is fair or competitively balanced to make BG play two more games than UT to win the tournament is another matter. Since it was decided on a head-head tiebreaker, I don't have a problem with it. The system rewards winning.

UPDATED: MAC Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket with first round game times. #MACtion pic.twitter.com/LK1zNfFuw3
— Jeremy Guy (@JGuyMAC) March 7, 2015

So here is the bracket.  BG plays at home Monday against Ball State, a team that has lost 16 straight games.  You'd like to think BG wins that game, but there's plenty to watch for.  More on that in a minute.

If BG does beat Ball State, they would play the winner of EMU and Miami in Cleveland.  BG split with the RedHawks and beat EMU easily.  Either opponent presents a winnable game but likely to be a very competitive game.  Miami is playing well and EMU just savaged UT.  Anyway, if BG won that game they'd get a rematch with the highly inconsistent Rockets who will be playing their first game in the tourney at that point.

What's the history?  The last 2 years the top seeds have won the whole thing.  In '12 OU won from the #3 seed.  Those are the results from the years using the current format.  In '11 Akron won from the #6...the most recent team to make a run to the title that started playing a first round game.  Everyone knows the story of OU making its run in '10 from the #9 seed, but again, those were under the old format.

In the 3 tournaments using this format, 11 of the 12 semi-final spots have been occupied by the teams with byes.  The only team that started playing on Monday to make the semi-finals was EMU last season.  That's how it was supposed to work and that's how it has worked.

BG has not won a MAC tournament game since the last game at Anderson against NIU.  The next year BG played #11 seed CMU at the Stroh and lost and the year after that BG lost to #11 seed Miami at home.  Last season, BG lost at NIU in OT.

A key issue for BG is the health of Richaun Holmes.  I have no idea what his status is for Monday or beyond and obviously I would not expect a lot of info out of BG in the meantime.  BG should be able to beat Ball State without him, but the chances of them winning 5 in 6 days without Holmes are very remote.  The odds with him are long enough.

So, Ball State.

First, BG has played poorly at home of late and was only 5-4 in conference play at the Stroh.  That's a worry.  Obviously, Ball State is just awful, having lost 16 straight games.  They only won 2 MAC games last year, too.  Their last win was on January 10...improbably enough an 18 point win over CMU.  I almost wish they had won their last game.  They will win someday.  Let's hope it isn't tomorrow.

I worry about how BG will come out.  Based on the season, I expect them to come out with something to prove and take out some frustration against the Cards. But any team, coming off last week, might have trouble getting up for a 5-game title slog.

They have last place stats.  They are last in offensive efficiency, last in turnover percentage, 6th in offensive rebounds and 10th in free throw rate.  They are 11th in FT% and 10th in 3FG%, although they take a ton.

They are also 11th in defensive efficiency.  They are last in opponent effective FG% (and 325th in the country),  5th in forcing turnovers, 2nd in protecting the offensive boards and 9th in FT rate.

BG beat Ball State twice this year.

The first game BG won by 12 at the Stroh.  The game was close with 14 left in the game, and then BG went on a 17-3 run over 5 minutes to take command of the game and then the game was even again for the remainder of the contest.

BG shot poorly in that game at 37% and 17% and primarily won due to a +14 advantage at the FT line.  That was a game BG was happy to win, but I'd say BG didn't play its best.

College Basketball Stats

BG won the 2nd game in Muncie by 12.  BG was up 9 at the half and then 16 by around the first media time out of the second half and BG coasted home from there until Coach pulled his starters a little early and the Cards rallied.  They never got the score within 10.

This game was a little more like the profile you'd like to see Monday.  BG shot 51% and 44% and made only 5 turnovers.  It was BG's best offensive performance in a MAC game.

BG did not play especially good defense, however.  In fact, Ball State outshot BG and made 50% of their 3FG attempts.  The Cardinals were undone by the large turnover differential.  It was the worst defense BG played in a MAC game that resulted in a win.

College Basketball Stats

In the first game, Zack Denny double-doubled in support of Richaun Holmes, who had a rough nice with 11 points on 3 of 8 shooting.  In the second game, Holmes had 20 and Denny had 18.  (Denny clearly likes playing the Cardinals!).

Zavier Turner had 14 points to lead Ball State in the game at the Stroh.  Matt Kameiniecki added 11 rebounds. In the second game, Kiapway scored 16 on 5 of 7 shooting, while Turner added 12 points and 8 assists.  Bo Calhoun had 11 points and 9 rebounds.

It begins Monday.  BG should be heavily favored, but you fear a hangover from last week along with struggles at home.  Hopefully BG can get its first win in 3 seasons and make it back to the Q.