Red Flash Preview

So BG heads off to play in a post-season game as part of the CIT.  They are playing the Red Flash (not Flashes) of St. Francis.  It is the second CIT bid for BG, the first one ending in a  defeat at Oakland.  As I have already covered, BG has lost every post-season game for the last 40 years.  This is a chance to right that wrong.

This is the first ever meeting with St. Francis.

St. Francis is in the Northeast Conference.  They were 16-15 on the year, and 10-10 in conference play.  They have an RPI of 183.  The game will take place in their gym, and they were 10-2 at home so that makes the assignment tougher.

Their biggest win was over Albany, an RPI of 104, who made the NCAAs.  They won @Duquesne and @Rutgers.  On the negative side, they lost to Wagner (295), Central Connecticut State (342), who won only 5 all year.

Let's take a closer look at the Red Flash.  First, we are using all game stats here.  Second, BG played a tougher schedule, which gives context to the numbers. The first thing I would notice is that they are pretty similar to BG in a lot of ways---not in terms of record, but in terms of style of play.  First, they played this year at 64 possessions per game, which is exactly the same as BG, so there should not be any tempo issues.

As you can see below, they have the numbers of a .500 team, meaning they are scoring slightly more than they are allowing.  They are a below average offensive team and an above average defensive team.  Meanwhile, BG is a better on both defense and offense and against tougher competition.

It is a little tough to figure out why St. Francis doesn't score more efficiently.  They only shoot 44% overall, but they attempt a metric f***ton of 3FGs.  They are in the top 20% of the country in attempting 3FGs.  They aren't great at making them---34%, 207th in the country--but it balances out to a decent EFG%.  Their turnovers are not great but not awful.  They don't do any offensive rebounding and get to the line OK, if not great.  That all somehow equals out to an above average offensive output.  Given BG's struggles defending the 3FG late in the season, I would say that should be the top priority for Tuesday's game.

Flipping it around, things are pretty evenly matched.  Again, with the caveat that BG played a tougher schedule, we see that BG's scoring and offensive stats are pretty consistent with what SFPA is used to giving up.

Individually, they are led by 6'6" Sr. F Earl Brown, a first-team all-NEC selection.  He scored 15.9 PPG on 54% shooting and 8 rebounds a game.

PG Malik Harmon is scoring 9.5 PPG on 39% shooting and only 2.7 APG.  The Flash have three other players in the 8-9 PPG range.

In that sense, they are a lot like BG, in that they have one double figure scorer and it is a F who is the leading scorer and rebounder on the team.

Oh, and Ollie Jackson is their leading 3FG at 40%.  He's a senior guard.

So that's the deal.  I haven't done the full research, but if BG has had a better chance to break this post-season drought, I don't know what it is.  BG has played well on the road, this is a team that struggled in a lower ranked conference (The MAC is the 10th ranked conference and NEC is 26th).  This is a game BG absolutely should win, if they are looking to win.