Bull Run with Friday's Permutations...

FRIDAY POSSIBILITIES
CMU @ WMU	EMU @ UT	BG @ UB	KSU @ UA	Double checked?	#1 Seed	#2 Seed	#3 Seed	#4 Seed	#5 Seed	Notes and explanation
CMU 13-5	Toledo 12-6	UB 12-6, BG 11-7	Kent 12-6	Y	CMU	UB	Kent	Toledo	BG	UB-Kent-Toledo: UB 2-1, Kent 2-1, UT 1-2 H2H2H. Then UB 2-0 vs Kent 0-2 H2H
CMU 13-5	Toledo 12-6	UB 12-6, BG 11-7	(Akron) Kent 11-7	Y	CMU	UT	UB	Kent	BG	UT H2H over UB; Kent vs BG 1-1 H2H, both 1-0 vs CMU, Kent 2-0 vs UT, BG 0-1.
CMU 13-5	Toledo 12-6	BG 12-6, UB 11-7	Kent 12-6	Y	CMU	Kent	Toledo	BG	UB	Kent-BG-Toledo: Kent 3-1, BG 1-2, UT 1-2; Toledo H2H over BG
CMU 13-5	Toledo 12-6	BG 12-6, UB 11-7	(Akron) Kent 11-7	Y	CMU	Toledo	BG	UB	Kent	Toledo H2H over BG; UB H2H Kent
CMU 13-5	EMU (UT 11-7)	UB 12-6, BG 11-7	Kent 12-6	Y	CMU	UB	Kent	Toledo	BG	UB over Kent H2H; Toledo over BG H2H
CMU 13-5	EMU (UT 11-7)	UB 12-6, BG 11-7	(Akron) Kent 11-7	Y	CMU	UB	Kent	Toledo	BG	See Kent-BG-UT tie above
CMU 13-5	EMU (UT 11-7)	BG 12-6, UB 11-7	Kent 12-6	Y	CMU	Kent	BG	Toledo	UB	See Kent over BG above; Toledo H2H over Buffalo
CMU 13-5	EMU (UT 11-7)	BG 12-6, UB 11-7	(Akron) Kent 11-7	Y	CMU	BG	UB	Kent	Toledo	See top row for UB - Kent - UT three-way.
(WMU) (CMU 12-6)	Toledo 12-6	UB 12-6, BG 11-7	Kent 12-6	Y	CMU	Kent	UB	UT	BG	UB 2-3, CMU 4-1, UT 1-4, Kent 3-2 H2H2H2H
(WMU) (CMU 12-6)	Toledo 12-6	UB 12-6, BG 11-7	(Akron) Kent 11-7	Y	CMU	UT	UB	Kent	BG	CMU-UT-UB: CMU 4-0, UT 1-2, UB 0-3 H2H2H; Kent over BG see above
(WMU) (CMU 12-6)	Toledo 12-6	BG 12-6, UB 11-7	Kent 12-6	Y	Kent	BG	CMU	UT	UB	CMU 2-2, Toledo 1-4, BG 2-2, Kent 4-1 H2H2H2H; BG H2H over CMU
(WMU) (CMU 12-6)	Toledo 12-6	BG 12-6, UB 11-7	(Akron) Kent 11-7	Y	CMU	BG	UT	UB	Kent	CMU 2-1, BG 1-1, UT 1-2 H2H2H; UB H2H Kent
(WMU) (CMU 12-6)	EMU (UT 11-7)	UB 12-6, BG 11-7	Kent 12-6	Y	CMU	UB	Kent	UT	BG	CMU 2-1, UB 2-2, Kent 1-2 H2H2H; Toledo H2H over BG
(WMU) (CMU 12-6)	EMU (UT 11-7)	UB 12-6, BG 11-7	(Akron) Kent 11-7	Y	CMU	UB	Kent	UT	BG	CMU H2H UB; Kent-BG-UT see above; Toledo H2H over BG
(WMU) (CMU 12-6)	EMU (UT 11-7)	BG 12-6, UB 11-7	Kent 12-6	Y	Kent	BG	CMU	UT	UB	Kent and BG 2-1, CMU 1-2 H2H2H; Kent over BG see above (maybe division record matters here?); UT H2H UB
(WMU) (CMU 12-6)	EMU (UT 11-7)	BG 12-6, UB 11-7	(Akron) Kent 11-7	Y	BG	CMU	UB	Kent	Toledo	BG H2H over CMU; UB 2-1, Kent 2-2, UT 1-2 H2H2H

OK....so here, courtesy of our friends over at Bull Run, is a comprehensive table of how the final day of the MAC season can roll out.  This is awesome and a lot of mind numbing work.  By the way, they will be updating and "greying out" possibilities as they are eliminated on Friday night, so you can click this link and follow along.

First, the ultimate thing is this.  If BG loses @Buffalo....and they have to be considered significant underdogs going in...they will get the 5th seed and play Ball State on Monday at the Stroh.  That part is 100% certain.

If BG wins, they could still finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and are guaranteed a bye. Further, there are more ways for them to finish 1-2 than 3-4.

You can see what has to happen above.  If you are talking finishing #1 and winning the regular season, you can see on that bottom line how that happens.  None are completely impossible, but all would be upsets.

As for a #2, there are ways for that to happen with any team winning or losing, just depending on the combination, which you can see above.

It is interesting to see.  Honestly, I think BG will be thrilled to beat Buffalo--a very tough assignment--and less worried about which seed it is, but certainly a top-2 seed would be huge.  All the games will be going on at roughly the same time, so that will heighten the drama for sure.

Enjoy.