Monday, April 07, 2014

Reckoning...my game by game predictions...

Overall, I did pretty well this year...I picked us to go 11-19 (not including final Cancun game and MAC tournament) and 6-12 in the MAC, and BG went 12-18 and 6-12.  We will see in a minute if I just ended up right by being wrong, but in general, this was the season I expected.  As I mentioned several times during the year, the team did exceed expectations in some ways.  There were a bunch of close games and a couple nice wins.  But, in the end, they finished where you would have expected.

Overall, I got 19 right and 11 wrong on a game by game basis.  I did not expect us to beat WKU, @Morehead State, @WMU, @OU, @BSU or Kent....and I did not expect us to lose to IPFW, EMU, NIU, Miami, or @Miami.  I don't feel too bad about this.  BG surprised me playing as well on the road as they did...I didn't think Ball State would be that awful, and then BG surprised me playing as poorly as they did at home.  NIU was better than expected, but still...

Anyway, that's how it totals up.

EARLHAM    WIN  RIGHT

Earlham is a DIII team that was 4-21 last year.

SOUTH FLORIDA  LOSE  RIGHT

BG threw away this game last year in Tampa.  This year, the Bulls are not very good again but brought in a huge FR C and should beat BG.

AT WISCONSIN  LOSE RIGHT

AT SAINT LOUIS  LOSE RIGHT

VS PRESBYTERIAN  WIN RIGHT

"Blue Hose" are picked to be last in the Big South.  They are likely to be BG's first DI win this year.

WESTERN KENTUCKY  LOSE  WRONG

The Hilltoppers were 20-16 last year and bring four guys back.  They were in the tournament last year.  On our court, this one has a shot but this is an unlikely win.

AT XAVIER   LOSE  RIGHT

NORTH DAKOTA  WIN  RIGHT

The No Nicknames beat BG last year on their home floor.  They are picked to be 2nd in the Big Sky and have uber star Troy Huff.  He dropped 14 and 12 on BG last year.  I'm going to take a shot and say BG wins this one on home floor.

AT MOREHEAD STATE  LOSE  WRONG

Bunch of new faces for Morehead.  I'd say that this is a road game BG could steal but I see us struggling to win on the road.

DETROIT   WIN  RIGHT

Detroit has a bunch of new players, has to replace Ray McCallum and also had Jason Calliste transfer at the last minute.

AT WRIGHT STATE  LOSE RIGHT

BG won this one at the Stroh least year.  Wright State went on to win 20 games and could win the Horizon this year.  Tough game for BG on the road.

IPFW   WIN  WRONG

Mastodons beat BG in bracket buster in Ft Wayne last year.  Frank Gaines, who popped 26 on the Falcons last year is gone and BG should win this one at home.

EASTERN MICHIGAN  WIN WRONG

This one could be close, but I will take BG on home court.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS  WIN WRONG

NIU is expected to not be very good.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN  WIN  RIGHT

I would think BG also wins this on home floor.

Quick note here.  The opening part of the schedule for BG is crazy easy.  Three of the worst teams in the MAC, all at BG...and Miami in game 6, also at home.  BG's last 12 games are all losable.  BG could compete with Ball State and Miami--but both those games are on the road.  Buffalo and Kent at home are not unwinnable.  But, BG could easily be an underdog for every one of there last 12 games and a 12 game losing streak to end the season is not outside the realm of possibility.

AT WESTERN MICHIGAN  LOSE WRONG

Paul and Hutcherson are both gone, but the Broncos good enough to win this in K-Zoo.

AT OHIO  LOSE WRONG

Ohio may take a step back but the Bobcats will be tough to beat at home.

MIAMI (OHIO)  WIN WRONG

Miami still in a rebuilding mode.

AT EASTERN MICHIGAN  LOSE  RIGHT

Eagles even the score at home.

BUFFALO  WIN  RIGHT

I don't know.  The media doesn't seem that high on the Bulls but they have a lot of guys back and are Witherspoon-free.  Take BG but its close.

AT TOLEDO  LOSE  RIGHT

The Rockets bottomed out and now are among the conference elite.

AKRON  LOSE  RIGHT

Akron still too strong for Falcons.

AT KENT STATE  LOSE  RIGHT

No chance at the MAC.

AT BALL STATE  LOSE WRONG

This one is winnable.  However, on the road, Ball State will be favorite.

TOLEDO  LOSE  RIGHT

See above.

AT MIAMI (OHIO)  WIN WRONG

Can BG win on the road this year?  This might be the best shot.

KENT STATE  LOSE WRONG
AT AKRON LOSE  RIGHT

No chance at the JAR.

OHIO LOSE  RIGHT
AT BUFFALO LOSE  RIGHT

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