Men's Basketball Preview: Go Go NoDak

The North Dakota No-Names come to BG tomorrow to take on the Falcons...UND is continuing until 2015 to play without a nickname until 2015, due to some good 'ol American nutball stuff, which I wrote about last year.

North Dakota plays in the Big Sky Conference now.  Last year they were in the Great West.  They are picked #2 or #3 (coaches or media) in the pre-season poll.

They are 2-5 this year, but against a very difficult schedule.  They beat Minnesota-Morris (not difficult) along with a very good North Dakota State team.  They have losses to Wisconsin, Oregon, Pacific and Butler, all top 50 teams.  Now...none of the games have been close...their closest loss has been 15 points and they lost to not-great Cal-Poly by 27 on a neutral floor.

In other words, I think it is safe to say that we don't really know what we have with these guys yet.

They did beat BG last year, 56-53 in Grand Forks.  UND dominated BG on the boards and the Falcons made only 53% of its FGs in the loss. (ahem).

NCAA Basketball Stats

This year's game is pretty evenly matched.  In fact, while UND has played a tough schedule (#3 RPI schedule in the country to date), BG has played a tough one too (#33).

When you picture UND basketball, or North Dakota in general, you don't picture up-tempo ball.  Yet, that is what they provide.  They are going at 74 possessions per game, which is about 5-6 possessions more than BG.  They are averaging 78 and giving up 83 PPG.

Inside all that, they are about average in efficiency on offense, scoring 1.05 points per possession (NCAA median 1.06).  On defense, they allow 1.12 points per possession, which is 305th in the country.

When you look at the four factors, you can see that BG and UND are actually pretty close across the board based on what the team itself produces.

NCAA Basketball Stats

The real story is on defense.  UND allows 51% FG shooting and 36% from 3.  That 56% EFG% is among the 20 worst in D1.  They are average on the defensive boards and they foul a lot...3 more fouls per game than BG and a high proportion of FT shots created.

And that's where BG is going to need to exploit the UNDers.  It is going to be an interesting game of contrasting styles, but BG has the chance to score big in this one and they will need to...in addition to attempting to control the tempo, which is certainly not easy to do.

Individually, they feature a bona fide stud in Troy Huff, who is averaging 22.7 points per game in 29 minutes.  (Like a lot of up tempo teams, they play a deep rotation).  That is 11th in the nation in shooting.  He's pretty effiicient...48% FG shooting and gets to the line pretty effectively.  He's not a great threat from 3, although he can do it.  He's having his most efficient season as a senior.  He also averages 7.5 RPG.

Their 2nd leading scorer is Aaron Anderson, who is 5'10".  He is scoring 13 points in 29 minutes and incredibly accurate from 3 at 52%.  Jaron Nash is also scoring in double figures at 11 points in 24 minutes.  He is 6'8" and also gets 4.9 rebounds.  He shoots 49% which is also pretty good.  Looking at this, you have to wonder why they aren't a better shooting team overall, but when you look down the list, they have some poorer shooters deeper on the bench.

I have not heard about BG's injury situation, particularly with Sealey.  Depth is an issue in an up-tempo game with him and it is worth without him.

At home, they way the Falcons are playing, this is a very winnable game, but far from an easy win.  BG is going to need to:

1. Score.
2. Make free throws
3. Stay out of foul trouble.
4. Control the tempo.