Regular Season Finale...Da Bulls
The Falcons will head to Buffalo tonight without too much to play for. Doesn't mean it might not be important...if, for example, BG were to go into the Buff and get the win, I think we'd enter the MAC tournament with a big confidence boost. It would certainly get the league's attention. If on the other hand, Buffalo were to win big, that could have a negative effect.
The Bulls have certainly had a very strong season and have out-performed their expectations. They were not especially good last year and lost a couple players. Akron's win last night put the title chances away for Buffalo. However, the Bulls are still playing for the semi-final bye. As of Saturday morning, if OU beats Miami and Buffalo loses to BG then the Bulls would finish #3. (The Miami and OU game was postponed from Friday night to Saturday at noon because of the horrific storms in the area. We will know by tip off, and it is possible Buffalo will have second locked up by tip off).
I always say that the regular season title is the more difficult to win; the tournament is more meaningful. Buffalo has had a great regular season, have two great inside players.
They beat BG at the Stroh. Looking back, BG lost 2 close games to Akron and Buffalo consecutively back in January, each games they could have won and things would be very different if they had. They didn't...the Falcons do seem to be doing better at closing games out over the past couple of weeks at the Stroh, though the struggles continue @OU and @Akron.
Just as a reminder, the Buffalo game was close the whole way. BG had a 1 point lead with 1:30 left, and then had some defensive lapses, allowing a dunk and a wide open three sandwiched around a Buffalo stop. Even with the 4 point lead. BG had the lead down to 2 with the ball twice in the last minute, whiffing both times. As the game ended, Mitchell Watt blocked Crawford's last second shot at tie the game.
That's a tough way to lose, and, as I said, those home losses to Akron and Buffalo are what is keeping BG from taking an OK season and ending up with a bye.
Statistically, the game was pretty even. Buffalo only shot 44% from the line and BG was +8 at the line, but the Bulls his 43% from beyond the arc to BG's 29%, a 12 point advantage for the Bulls. Beyond that, it was pretty tight.
A'uston Calhoun had a huge game, even playing against Watt and Javon McCrea, probably the best big-tandem in the MAC. He had 29 on 12 of 17 shooting and added 8 rebounds. Brown had 13 and Thomas had 12 though neither of the players shot very well. Crawford had 5 points (1-10 shooting), but 6 assists over 2 turnovers. BG played a very tight rotation in the first game, and I would expect the same tomorrow.
For the Bulls, McCrea and Watt both had 16 point, and McCrea added 13 rebounds. Watson added 11 points off the Bull bench.
The Bulls play solid on both sides of the ball. (All stats for conference games only). They are the 3rd most efficient team on offense, scoring 1.04 points per possession. They are the 4th best shooting team on effective field goal%, 3rd on the offensive boards and 5th at getting to the line. Their one weakness on offense is that they are 8th in the MAC in turnover %, but, in general, this is a very solid offensive team. On the perimeter, they are 4th in 3-attempts but 8th in 3-FG%.
They are 4th in defensive efficiency. That's primarily built on an exemplary ability to guard the shot. They are allowing an effective FG% of 44%, which is first in the MAC and 26th in D1. They force a lot of missed shots, and they are 3rd in the MAC in protecting their offensive boards. There is a price to be paid for that--they are 10th in forcing turnovers, but you don't need turnovers when you get stops like they do. They are 5th in keeping teams off the free throw line.
Chart is for all games.
Obviously, you have to respect the Bulls on the inside. McCrea was thought to be their lead player coming in, but Sr. Mitchell Watt has actually made a strong bid for MAC POY. He's second in the MAC with 15.7 PPG and 4th with 7.4 rebounds. He also leads the MAC with 2.7 blocks per game. He certainly is the most improved player in the MAC. He has doubled his scoring while moving his minutes only from 22 to 30 minutes.
McCrea remains a very good player. He is scoring 14 points and getting 6.6 rebounds per game. He shoots 55% from the field and the only thing keeping him from being the best scorer in the MAC is 54% free throw shooting.
Zach Filzen is scoring 10 points a game and is supposedly a 3-pt specialist, but he is hitting only 35% from beyond the arc. which is 5th in the MAC.
Finally, PG Jarrod Oldham leads the MAC with 5.8 assists per game.
Clearly, this is a very strong Bulls team. They may or may not end up playing for something, we'll know by game time.
BG played them very tough at the Stroh and probably should have beaten them. Buffalo is 11-2 at home and 6-1 in the MAC. Clearly, this will be a game BG will not win without playing very well. As mentioned, the confidence rewards would be high. BG has a tough road in the tourney, but those games are on a neutral floor. The Falcons are certainly playing better. It would be great to mark this game as part of a run where the team showed itself to be ready to make a real run.
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