MAC Tourney....Chippin' Time

So, the MAC Tourney starts tonight.  The Falcons have drawn the Central Michigan Chippewas, the #11 team in the MAC.  The prize is a Wednesday night game against the winner of UT-Miami, also tonight @UT.

This is a game BG should win.  My biggest worry is that CMU does have a player, and while I don't think he has really shown what he can do in the MAC, he is capable of taking over a game, and in an elimination tournament, that has to make you nervous.

Of course, that's Trey Zeigler.

The Chips have had an awful season.  I don't know what the scuttlebutt is in terms of Zeigler the Senior staying on in that job, but if they keep him, it is strictly because of his son.  No one can be happy with the progress of this program, which has gotten the best recruit in recent memory in the MAC and only gotten worse.

They are 10-20 and 5-11.  That's 5-11, with 10 games in the MAC West.  They won only one conference game on the road, have an RPI of 287 and are at the end of a long season.

Still....

BG handled them pretty easily when they met earlier this year at the Stroh.  BG hit a run late in the first half, led by 10 at the half, and then pulled away in the second half, leading by 15-17 points most of the way.  CMU did get it back to 9 and BG turned that run right back.  It was not a competitive contest.

NCAA Basketball

BG dominated CMU in most aspects of the game, out shooting them, basically ending up even in turnovers, and dominating free throw shooting.  BG had a very poor night in one regard, allowing CMU to get 55% of the available offensive rebounds, which is just an appalling stat.  It was our worst performance on the offensive boards since before the 2000 season, which is as far back as I can go on statsheet.com.  And CMU is not a strong rebounding team.

College Basketball

As mentioned, the marquee player for CMU is Trey Zeigler.  He scored 15.5 points per game in conference games, which is 3rd in the MAC.  Now, that's not the world's most efficient scoring, as he is second in the MAC in field goal attempts and 66th in offensive efficiency.  Still, he doesn't have much to work with, so he might well be putting up shots that aren't great just because there's no one else to do it.

He's also 4th in offensive rebounds and 5th in overall rebounding.  He is a slasher...not too many attempts from 3.  He double-doubled BG at 17-10 in the first game.  He scored 22 in their last win over WMU and scored 33 a couple weeks ago against UT, though they still lost.

Derek Jackson and Austin McBroom are also scoring in double figures.

They have the stats of an 11th place team.  On offense, they are 10th in offensive efficiency and effective field goal%.  They are 8th in offensive rebounding percentage (tempo free matters, they have big numbers but they miss a lot of shots too), are 10th in getting to the free throw line.  They do take care of the ball.  They have the lowest turnover percentage in the MAC.

One note.  They are heavily dependent on the 3.  They are third in the MAC in makes and attempts, but only 9th in actual percentage.

On defense, they are not a lot better.  They are 11th in efficiency and in effective FG%.  They are dead last in allowing teams to the free throw line.  They are 5th in preventing offensive rebounds and 4th in causing turnovers, but because they are easy to make shots against, those two things don't equal out to actual production.

This is a game BG should win.  In looking for ways for that not to happen, I can see 3 or 4...

1. BG has one of those nights where there is a lid over the basket.
2. Zeigler goes nuts.
3. CMU gets hot from 3.
4. BG has a lousy FT shooting night.

Beyond that, you'd expect BG to win this game.  Let us hope it is so.  I think we will see Scott Thomas hitting shots again, and I'm hopeful BG does the same to the Chips as last time.