Scenarios....

Obviously, after tomorrow things will become a lot clearer....for the time being, here is where we stand...

(Note:  see comments below and thanks to Jason from BGSU for jumping in.  Contrary to popular belief (as least his and mine) division record is not a tie breaker unless it is for the division title, which is meaningless anyway.  It is head-head and then ranking the teams and comparing records from top to bottom.  So, anything you see below is probably off when it gets to division record). We regret the error.

So, what could happen from this.  Well, to start with, there is a chance of a five-way tie at 10-6.  Under that scenario, BG finishes 5th, based on my calculations.

BG can still finish 3rd.  In a 4-way tie with BG, Kent, BG and OU, with that loss to EMU now out of the tie-breaking equation, Buffalo would be 2nd (4-2 among those four teams) and BG and Kent would tie for 3rd at 3-3.  BG and Kent split, but BG would have a better record against the East and win the tie-breaker against Kent, so BG is 3rd, Kent 4th and OU fifth.

As noted, it is possible for BG to win out and not get a bye.  However, assuming we're talking 10 wins, BG wins the tie-breakers with Buffalo and Kent...both Buffalo and Kent swept the West and BG did not, and that means (somewhat perversely) that they there had to do worse than BG in the East in order to end up in a tie.  BG lost once against the West and OU twice, so if BG and OU tie than the Bobcats win that one.

There all kinds of multi-way ties.  Buffalo lost twice to OU so they want to stay out of a tie, and BG's loss to EMU means we want to keep them out of the tie-breaker.

Those scenarios all require two BG wins to activate.  What about one?

The answer is that at 9 wins, BG clinches 5th only if EMU loses both of their games, which is certainly possible.  I know we should beat any of those bottom teams, but I would feel a lot better playing NIU than CMU, who has some talent that could go crazy for an upset.

BG could get a bye with nine wins...in a 3-way tie with EMU and Kent, however, Kent would be 2-1, EMU 1-1 and BG 1-2, so in that situation we finish 6th.  So, with one win, BG needs EMU to lose twice and Kent to lose twice.  Kent plays only at home, but against OU and Akron.

BG cannot finish lower than 6th.  Worst case, BG plays one of NIU, CMU or Ball at the Stroh.  In fact, even in a 4-way tie with WMU, UT, and EMU, BG finishes 5th.

Clearly, things will be more clear tomorrow.  Meanwhile, if you are a Falcon fan...you want BG to win, and EMU to lose tomorrow.  If you want to aim big, you want Kent to beat OU and Akron to beat Buffalo.