BG Travels to Middletown, USA, Looks to Exceed Mean
It fits, if you have been there. I mean, I'm not sure it is any more in the middle than 100 other places, and it had to be somebody, and this is who it was.
This will be a very interesting game. Ball State has a 12-9 record, but they are 4-5 in the MAC and the out-of-conference wins were racked up against the #331 ranked schedule in D1 (out of 345). They have 5 wins against teams with RPIs over 300 (honestly, even making that work from a scheduling standpoint is a challenge) and won non-D1 win. Then add in IUPUI, Texas Southern and Toledo (all between 250 and 300) and you get an idea what I am talking about.
They did beat Butler in Muncie. They also lost to IUPUI as well as beat them.
They ran through the first West portion of their schedule with only one loss (EMU at home), and now they are 0 for the East, losing at home to Akron (not surprising) but also Miami, in a game that must give BG some hope. They have lost 4 in a row.
Now, on one hand, they are clearly not playing well. On the other hand, teams on four game losing streaks playing at home can be very difficult to beat...they have their backs to the wall and will really want to win.
Having said that, this is a game a team needs to win if they are making a serious run. On the road this is certainly not easy or a gimmee, but good teams can do things that are not easy. Coming off the road win at WMU and with UT down the road, it would give BG a realistic shot at a 5-1 run through the West, which is pretty much what are the cool kids are doing anyway.
On the plus side, the Cardinals feature one of the best players in the MAC---Jarrod Jones. He's leading them in scoring and rebounds (15/9). We've seen this before on struggling teams, but Jones is actually a pretty good player. He is only using 25% of their possessions (15th in MAC). Interestingly, he was 7th in the MAC in offensive rating for all games and 29th for conference games, so I am assuming he is working harder to score in MAC play (as the level of the competition got tougher).
Randy Davis is their next best player. He's a PG getting 8 points and 4 assists per game (9th in the MAC) but with only about 1 turnover, a ratio that is first in the MAC and 16th in the country.
They are both seniors, so I think that adds pressure to the Cardinal's position.
They have three other guys scoring 8 points a game.
Their team stats are about what you expect for MAC games, which is in the middle of the pack. They are 7th in EFG% and offensive efficiency, 8th in FT Rate, 6th in offensive rebound % and 4th in turnover percentage, all of which fits together very nicely. They are 4th in most 3s attempted and 11th in making them, so that bodes well for us. Unless they are falling, in which case it will be a rainy night in Lyndhurst.
They are 6th in defensive efficiency but 9th in effective FG% allowed. They do keep you off the line--only 3 teams allow a lower free throw rate--and the are 6th in forcing turnovers. They are also good on the defensive boards--also 4th in the MAC. So, not great shot defense, but they upgrade by limiting second shots and free throws.
Ball State has beaten BG 6 of the last 8 times in Muncie. One of the 2 was a 2003 MAC tournament win that was a nice lift for BG at the time. (Ron Lewis hung 28/8 up for BG and Netter dropped 19. The game featured 61 fouls and 78 free throws. Good times).
Anyway, in Middletown, this is a pretty even game. It would be great to see BG generate its first 3-game winning streak since well into last year, and pick up another key road win, both as a tiebreaker and as a buffer against another trip through the East.
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