Humility Part II....MAC Predictions
Below are my picks and comments. Actual pick, along with commentary, is included in red. I did get 6 of the 13 teams right.
West
I start with the West because I did better.
1. NIU (Actual finish 1st)
The case: I really like NIU. They had a ridiculous offensive juggernaut last year and bring huge amounts of offensive talent back, including the MAC's best QB and a very solid line. Even if the defense is weaker, they can score enough to win. They had the best defense in the MAC last year---they didn't need it. After last year's disappointment, they get the job done this year.
Why not #1: Well, they have a new Coach, no one knows how that will click. Also, they will not be as solid on defense. They have to replace more starters than any other team in the MAC.
(December comment: How you like me now?)
2. UT (Actual 2nd)
The case: They were the media's choice as well as Phil Steele's. Beckman has very quickly assembled a very good football team up there. Steele says their schedule is slightly better than NIU's and they have 18 starters back. They play NIU at the Glass Bowl. I'm picking NIU, but this one is very close.
Why not #1: They might be strong, but they are not as good as NIU. They are solid and deep at QB, but Harnish is better and while they didn't lose a lot of players, they did lose some key defensive players.
(That's 2-2.).
3. WMU (Actual 3rd)
The case: Steele actually has them as co-favorite with UT and says they will be one of the most improved teams in the country. They have a very strong QB and return the MAC's top WR. They have the best special teams in the West, and they were 5-3 in the MAC last year.
Why not #1: Steele is pinning a lot of hope on Tevin Drake at RB and I'm not sure he's shown enough to put that kind of weight on his shoulders. Their defense isn't that strong, and they play UT and NIU on the road. Also, Cubit seems to have a history of underachieving and I have yet to be convinced he is a complete coach.
(Another missile hits the target. Feel free to stop reading now. 3-3)
4. CMU (Actual 6)
The case: CMU fans were ready to part company with Dan Enos after only one year, but I think you'll see him turn things around. They have to be better---and they have a strong QB and WR and....well, Miami did it.
Why not?: The Chips will be better, but their defense will limit their upside--especially when they have to face the offenses in the West. Their O-line could struggle too.
(The fall of this program is pretty surprising. I thought it was a one-year adjustment, but clearly, the issues ran deeper).
5. BSU (4th)
The case: They could finish ahead of CMU...I don't see a higher run. They have a new coach, and he might be able to harness the team's underperformance from the Parrish years and make a run.
Why not?: Just too far to climb in this division.
(BSU surprised me this year. I thought they would be better, but not as good as they were).
6. EMU (5th)
The case: They have to compete eventually. Right? They have Ron English and Mike Hart coaching....someday, things have to turn around. Miami did it.
Why not?: Someday EMU will be competitive. Honestly.
(I was surprised that EMU was as good as they were. Now, they were the only team in the MAC with 2 FCS wins and they had only 1 quality win. I'm not a big fan).
East
There are 4 very evenly matched teams in the East. Below, I will examine each of them...make the case for them winning, and then saying why I am or am not picking them.
1. Kent (3rd)
The case: Kent was never as far behind as they looked, lost a lot of close games and they return a very strong team up front. Their new coach will take an underachieving team and have immediate results, almost in the Urban Meyer vein.
(A big finish moves this pick from humiliating to embarrassing).
2. Temple (2nd)
The case: Despite big graduation losses, Al Golden left lots of talent which I think Steve Addazio will know how to use. They are set even if Pierce is not healthy, and Mike Gerardi is underrated at QB.
Why not #1: Temple lost a lot of defensive stars from the conference's second best defense, and the fall off is enough to cost them the title. However, they end the season with Kent at the Linc.
(Fourth team picked correctly. Wrong about Gerardi, and their defense did bring more back than people thought.)
3. Miami (5th)
The case: They were the media's pick (really--I was closer than they were). They have the best QB in the East (they actually do not) and a very strong defense. They have 17 guys back from last year's title team. They have a new coach, and a guy who will be a good one, and you just start to think they have the ability to do it again.
Why not #1: They had a huge turnover advantage last year and won a bunch of close games, something that Phil Steele will tell you is difficult to replicate. They don't look to be able to run the ball very well, and they have a relatively tough schedule, especially in cross-over land.
(See the Why not section from above.)
4. Ohio U. (1st)
The case: Phil Steele not only picks them #1 but says they will finish #34 in the country based on the easiest schedule in the MAC. They got the most 1st place picks in the MAC media poll, but still finished 3rd, which means that at least some people agree with me...this team is overrated. Anyway, the case for them is that they were 8-5 last year and their games against last year's weak East teams are the same games everyone else plays.
Why not #1: They are breaking in a new QB, have major defensive issues and don't have the offense to outpace a weak defense. While their O-line might look good, they have a very low number of accumulated starts among them. Also, in the MAC, just because teams were poor last year does not mean they will be this year.
(Tettleton really performed as a new QB and the offense was really strong. Also, their line just moves guys up so even if they don't have starts, they have been in the program and are strong. Solich doing a really solid job).
5. BG (4th)
The case: Miami did it.
Why not #1: While I expect BG to be improved this year and think the program is on the track to success, this year is going to be tough. BG has a very difficult cross-over schedule, and even though the defense will be stronger, it will still be very young and the O-line is very unsettled--should be better, but I don't know how high the ceiling is. If everything breaks right, this could change, but I don't think this is the year for BG to challenge for the title.
(Pretty good analysis, IMO)
6. Buffalo (6th)
The case: Miami did it.
Why not #1: I think Quinn will do well in Buffalo, but they are similar to BG...weak on the O-line, weak in the defensive secondary, and not enough horses to compete this year.
(Right on, #5). Also, did not see their offensive struggles coming.
7. Akron (7th)
The case: Not applicable.
Why not #1: Akron lost a lot of players from a bad team...making them young and weak. They have a long way to go to be competitive, even in the East.
(Right on #6, though this was a gimmee).
Championship....The West champion should be the favorite and since I have NIU, I like them to win the Title. They should have won last year and they make it up this year. (Correct).
Going to Bowls....
Kent (Wrong)
NIU (Right)
UT (Right)
WMU (Right)
Temple (Right)
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