Hilltopper Preview

The Falcons travel to Bowling Green (KY) tomorrow to take on the WKU Hilltoppers.  BG has played only one true road game this year, but is about to find out how it can do on the road, as 6 of the next 7 games are away from the Stroh Center.

Last year, WKU was a .500 team, and they had some pretty serious losses from that team--3 seniors who were their top 3 in rebounding and in scoring.  They did win a very ugly game at Anderson Arena last season, beating the Falcons 59-52 in a game that featured 49 turnovers and 29 by the Hilltoppers.  BG shot 30% and had a dreadful .73 points per possession.  The loss coincided with a low point in the Falcon fortunes, one that had me wondering if we had made any progress at since since Dakich left.

For his part, WKU's coach was livid despite the win and said they he didn't want to see anyone "smiling" in the WKU locker room.

Thankfully, this is a new year.  They were picked to finish 3rd in the Sun Belt East in the conference poll, and Basketball Prospectus has them sixth in the Sun Belt overall and their Crazy Uncle math style projections showed them 7th.

They year has not been kind to WKU, but they are probably better than their record looks.  They are 2-6 this year, and that is without playing one true road game.  Their only wins have been over Tennessee State and SE LA, neither of which look to be good teams.  On the other hand, they don't really have a bad loss...they have lost to St. Joe's, Murray State and VCU (twice), each of which has a sub 100 RPI so far, and their other losses are Tulsa and LSU, both respectable teams.

Their game notes also indicate that they have had injury issues so far this year.

They are 2-3 in their home arena.

Their biggest issue has been putting the ball into the basket.  They are averaging .83 points per possession, which places them among the worst 5% in the country.  Their effective FG% is 41.3% and they are only average at the free throw line.  They shoot a lot of 3s but are 301st in the nation in actually making them, and on top of all this, they have turned the ball over on 27% of their possessions--15th worst in D1.

Compared to that wreckage, you would expect the defense to be better, and it is.  They allow .98 points per possession, which is good, and they do rebound reasonably well and force turnovers on 23% of their opponent's possessions.  So far, they've played pretty good defense, just not good enough to make up for their offensive issues.

They are lead by true freshman Derrick Gordon, who was a highly touted recruit when WKU signed him.  He is averaging 10 points per game, but is taking a huge amount of shots to get there, and his offensive efficiency is .83.  George Fant, a 6'5" FR, is their leading rebounding and Gordon is second.

Their most efficient offensive player is Kevin Kaspar (also a freshman) who is getting about 8 points per game but is the only Hilltopper scoring at more than 1 point per possession.

They play pretty small.  They have a 6'11" from the Sudan who blocks some shots and scores a little, but beyond him, they play a lineup that will look size-wise like what BG faced against the Owls on Sunday.

Winning on the road is always tough.  Having said that, if BG's brings its A-game on the defensive end of the floor, it seems like this is a game we match up pretty well in.  We would hope to be able to get our inside guys going against this lineup.

As I have said before, as we watch games and wonder if we can head into Kent and win, you would have to be looking for us to head into Diddle Arena and win.  This is a WKU team that is very young and really struggling.

BG has sometimes failed to put good games together in strings recently, and that's another thing it would be nice to see.