Falcon Basketball Preview--Two Perspectives

We're going to take a quick break from football, since the team does not play again until Thursday.  I enjoy basketball season every bit as much as I do football season, and I find both sports fascinating and very compelling.

With that in mind, let me take a quick preview of the Falcons for this year....starting with the conventional wisdom.  Because there is a very easy way to preview this team, one that seems obvious, is difficult to argue with, and might very well be right.

That convention view is that this will be a rebuilding year.  BG lost 59.55% of its scoring (3rd most in the MAC) and 45.5% of its rebounding (4th most in the MAC).  Beyond numbers, the player that carried the team home (Nate Miller) is gone.  A talented but inconsistent underclassmen (Chris Knight) left, and promising transfer Adrion Graves left without ever dressing for a game.  On paper, this team will not have a scorer.

You know, I'm a little contrarian.  I will concede that the conventional view could easily happen...and might be most likely.  However, there is another set of things could happen.  I sense a confidence in the BG camp that is not warranted by the available facts.  Let's see if we can figure out why.

The link above takes you to a preview in BG's media guide.  This things always tend to the optimistic, but I think that this one is pretty revealing.

Two things from a team perspective.  First, Coach mentions that this pre-season has been freer of distractions, which is good.  (Remember, last year started with suspensions to three key players).  Second, he talks about the team's defense (which was good but not great on the whole last year, but very tough coming home) and says that he hopes we will be able to play more man-to-man this year, which promises some strategic  diversity and seems to indicate an even stronger unit.

Now, let's look at what a rotation might look like for Bowling Green.

Up front, you have Otis Polk and Marc Larson coming back.  Polk has lost weight in an effort to stay on the floor more, and if he can do that (he will need to reduce fouls too) he has the ability to be a force on the defensive end of the floor and on the offensive boards.  If he can develop any kind of touch on his "zero footers" he can score, too.

Getting Marc Larson back is a key, too.  Although he doesn't do things that show up in the box score, he is very much a contributing player on the defensive side (especially on help side) and is a reliable passer and screener on offense.

Obviously, Nate Miller graduated.  I would anticipate that Scott Thomas will fill his spot.  Thomas played sparingly last year (as a freshman) but showed some real potential.  He's long, a ball player, a good shooter and fearless.  Needless to say, we need him to produce from this spot.

There is depth up front, as well.  Erik Marschall can hopefully provide more minutes than he did last season, and even if his legs won't carry him to starting minutes, he is very talented with the ball and can be a dangerous inside scorer.  And, A'uston Calhoun, who red-shirted last year, is alleged to be a very good athlete who is maturing.  In the right role, could he replace the numbers Knight had--if not the occasional flashes of raw brilliance?

So, that's five players in our rotation.

In the backcourt, we return Joe Jakubowski.  As Coach says in the preview "It's his time."  And it is.  This team needs him to produce, on both ends of the floor.  Also, (my opinion now), he needs to take his game from one of managing the offense to creating opportunities for other players. He is as good a PG as we have had since Brandon Pardon, and as a junior, this team needs him to create scoring opportunities and (we hope) some transition baskets.

The other spot (the Moten/Clements spot) looks like it will be occupied by Darren Goins.  This will be interesting.  On paper, Goins had a couple of seasons at San Jose State that did not reveal the level of athleticism and ability that our coaches apparently see.  Doesn't mean it isn't there, just an observation.  Coach talks about him being a great athlete who will be able to get to the rim--something Miller did for us so well.  His contribution is vital.

Finally, at Guard, we also have Dee Brown back.  I thought Brown showed some promise at times last year....I'd say the Nation is a little skeptical, but Coach says he improved a great deal over the summer.  He figures to be in our rotation as the third guard.

That gives us an eight-man rotation, without a single true freshman getting in.  Any contribution from them, even in limited roles, would be a bonus.

There are lots of ifs in the scenario above.  I don't think any of them are impossible, or even hard to believe, but maybe collectively they all are.  I do believe that this team can exceed above the expectations conventional wisdom sets and gain a bye to the Q.

I'm sure of this.  There is plenty of interesting things for fans to watch as the season develops, and I like the direction we are headed in.