The 25 Questions of November

What is their body of work?

Their season does not have a lot to show for it.  They did hang on to beat a decent UTEP team on the road, but their other wins were over Akron and Gardner-Webb, an FCS team.

What is their best result?

The win over UTEP.  UTEP has beaten ranked Houston and a middlin' Tulsa team.

What is their worst result? 

Losing to Central Florida is nothing to be proud of, and they were blown out by Temple.

Last year, they benefitted from a ridiculously beneficial turnover margin.  Phil Steele usually looks for those teams to regress, because turnovers are, to some degree, a measure of luck, and cannot always be counted on from one year to the next.  Buffalo is -7 this year, with only BSU and Miami worse.

Offense:

How is their QB play? 

Drew Willy left this program, and he looked to be hard to replace.  To an extent he has been.  Zach Maynard is the new QB, and he has done pretty well.  He is 4th in the MAC in pass efficiency, slightly ahead of Tyler Sheehan.  Bull Run told us earlier in the week that Maynard was highly recruited and did not end up in BCS land because of some academic issues, and that appears to be true.  He has thrown 11 INTs.  Finally, he is mobile enough to take off and run under the right circumstances.

What was their yard per play?

While they are only eighth in scoring, Buffalo is tied with CMU for second in the MAC with 5.8 yards per play.

Can they run the ball? 
At 4.2 yards per play, they are fifth in the MAC.  You will recall the sight of James Starks running the ball into the end zone to mercifully end that snowy debacle last year at the Doyt.  He was supposed to be back, but was lost for the season.  They failed around a little bit, with less than 100 yards in 3 of their first 4 games, but then along came Ike Nduka, apparently out of nowhere, and he has been very difficult to stop since his emergence.  He is, however, questionable to play and part of a large corps of injured Bulls, that includes all 3 of the TBs they have used this year.

Do they pass the ball?

As mentioned, Maynard is among the better QBs in the conference, and Naam Roosevelt is among the MAC's best receivers.

How is their run/pass balance.
They are a balanced team, with over 4 yards per rush and 7 yards per passing attempt.

Do they convert on 3rd Down.

As you would expect, they are solid in this area with 45%.

Do they score in the red zone?

This is just average.  They get a little over 4 points per trip, which is not great.  They have 3 Red zone ints, which is tied for first in the MAC.  Finally, they have only 28 trips to the red zone, which is not excellent, and is (according to the Bull Run blog) the result of poor field position.

Do they protect the quarterback

Middle of the pack--14 sacks allowed.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

The Bulls are 6th in scoring defense and sixth in yards per play allowed.

Do they defend the run effectively?

On the surface, they are 5th in yards rushing allowed per game.  However, teams don't run the ball against them that much.  They are allowing 4.6 yards per rush, which is 7th in the MAC.  The first six teams in the MAC allow 4.0 yards or less per carry, and the 7th is at 4.6, so there are clear haves and have nots (or can and cannot's) in the MAC when it comes to defending the run.

Could they be passed on? 
They are seventh in passing yards per game and fourth in pass efficiency defense.  They are allowing only 60% completion percentage with a 6.2 yard average.

Did they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are 9th in the MAC allowing 42% conversion.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They have allowed 32 red zone trips, which is a pretty typical number, but only have 5 outright stops.  However, they have forced more than there share of FGs and allow 4.3 points per red zone trip.


Do they pressure the QB?

This is a weak point, 10 sacks in 8 games.  (exactly what BG has, in fact).

Special Teams: 
Punting?

They are well below average, 10th in the MAC in net punting.  They are last in the distance of the punt, so that is what is killing them, not the returns.

Punt Return?

They are 11th in punt returns.  Furthermore, they have only 10 returns attempted, which indicates lots of fair catches.

Placekicking?

This is probably below average.  Principe is 6 out of 7 inside 40, with a long of 36 for the year.  He has missed his only 2 over 40.

Kickoff?

They are 11th in the MAC with teams starting on the 32.  They have allowed a TD.

Kickoff Return?

They are 12th in the MAC with 18 yards per return.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

This is a game we would all like to see the Falcons win.  It is a winnable game, based on Buffalo's other performances.  Both teams seem to be on an upward vector, and playing better.  I anticipate a high scoring game, since there is every reason to think that Buffalo will be able to move the ball.

One note is that this local story from Buffalo indicates that the Bulls have serious injury issues, which will certainly play a factor in an evenly matched game.

Among the keys to the game will be:

• Does Buffalo take care of the ball.  BG has forced very few turnovers, so the Bulls might well be able to cure their single biggest issue.
• Can BG's special teams take advantage of very poor special teams from Buffalo.  BG's are only somewhat better, but some big plays here would make a big difference.
• Can BG run the ball?  Especially if the forecast of 44 and rainy comes true.

My guess is that the game will be a pretty good shoot out.  It would be nice to see us put together a full 60 minute effort from the snippets of progress we have seen this year.