Friday, November 30, 2018

Hartford in December

Hartford in's like poetry.

The Falcon MBB team will find itself playing the Hartford Hawks Saturday in Connecticut.  They play in the America East Conference, which is the #23 conference.  It is also the UMBC conference.  They are picked 2nd in the conference by Blue Ribbon and the official conference poll.

They return 4 starters from a team that was 19-14 last year and played in the CIT.  The year before that they won 9, so this is a team with some serious momentum.  It was the most wins in program history and they extended their coach's contract.

This year they are struggling a little bit at 2-6, with wins over Quinnipiac and a non D1 school, and meaningful losses to Central Connecticut, Iona and Utah Valley on a neutral floor and then Tuesday night to @Sacred Heart, one of the lowest ranked teams in D1. 

After BG, their next game is Cameron Indoor.

So, this team is not playing very well and needs a win.

Stylistically, they play at 70.4 possessions, just slightly above the national average.  They are a high-volume 3-shooting team and are about average at making them.  They are scoring 1.01 per game, which is below average--as they are on everything on the offensive side.  They shoot FTs very well.

On defense, they're giving up 1.06 per game.  They allowed 98 to Sacred Heart.  They do force some turnovers, but they are easy to shoot against (especially the 2FG) and poor on the boards.  Teams don't shoot 3s against them, which we shouldn't either.

They are led by 6'8" Irishman John Carroll.  Other than having a college named after him, he is scoring 18 PPG on 45% and 45% shooting, which is OK but not great.  Shoots a lot of 3s.  He averages 6 RPG.  Sr. Jason Dunne is scoring 14 PPG on 35% and 40% shooting.  His A/T ratio is underwater.

Sr. G JR Lynch is scoring 13.4 on 38% and 24% shooting, which is a rough way to go.  He leads the team with 3.9 assists.  Finally, Aussie George Blagojevic scores 12 PPG on 5% shooting and a team-high 7.1 RPG.  Below 50 from the line.

Last things.  According to the Kenpom measure, they are the team playing the most experienced lineup in the country.  They also have SIX players born outside of North America.

This is a pretty even game that Hartford is being picked to win.  Let me say this.  If you see BG attacking the basket, they should win this one, but if you see them pumping up jumpers than I think the Hawks will get it done.

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