Saturday, November 24, 2018

Drexel Preview

So after a break for the holidays, the Falcon men take to the home floor Sunday to play Drexel. It comes off a pretty disappointing performance in Detroit...though I spoke to some people who were there in person and there are not enough positive adjectives for Antoine Davis.  You're going to be able to brag you heard about him EARLY.

Anyway, Drexel plays in the CAA.  They were 13-20 last year and BG beat them in the season opener in Philly by 9 with Drexel missing two of their top players.  That's the only meeting between the schools.  They lost 3 starters from that team and have a lot of new guys.

They were picked to finish last in the CAA by Blue Ribbon this year and 9th in the official pre-season poll.

The Dragons are 3-2 so far this year.  They lost by 4 @EMU and @Rutgers, won a non D-1 game and won @LaSalle and beat Boston University at home.  None of those wins was especially notable, though the 4-point loss to an EMU team expected to contend for the MAC is worth paying attention to.

The historic problem for Drexel has been defense.  Since Bruiser Flint left, they have been over 1.1 points per possession for the first full seasons and they are at 1.08 this year, which is 313th in the country.  BG scored 1.03 against them last year.

So, as you can see there, on both sides of the ball the defenses will be struggling as compared to the offenses.  The differential is even larger when BG has the ball, when the #186 offense battles the #313 defense.  Simply put. this is a team that can be scored against and BG needs to show they can get that done.

Drexel's games are at a reasonably paced 71.6 possessions while BG has played at 71.9.

To highlight that element, so far this season Drexel has been terrible against the shot, forced next to no turnovers, did ok at rebounding and doesn't foul.  Meanwhile, BG has been not great at shooting, turned the ball over at times, good on the boards and at getting to the line.  The Dragons are #314 at defending the 3FG and in the 280s against the 2FG.  BG needs to make this one of those nights when they can get shots to fall.

Flipping it around, this matchup is considerably more even.  Drexel is a good 3FG team, though they don't overshoot them.  (With the shooting against BG from beyond the arc, this should be a focus).  They are about average on 2FGs.  They are excellent at the FT line (78%).

Their leading scorer is Trevor John, a grad transfer from Cal Poly.  He's 6'3", scores 14 a game on 51% shooting.  Of his 43 FGAs, 41 have been for 3, so that's quality shooting.  Alihan Demir is their 6'9" big man from Turkey who did not play against BG last year.  He's scoring 13.8 on 52% shooting to go with 6.8 rebounds per game.  Camryn Winter is a true FR and is scoring 10.8 PPG on 65% shooting (very high for a guard) to go with 5 rpg and 5 apg.   Zach Walton is a 6'6" JUCO guy scoring 10 PPG on 53% shooting. 

Note:  yes, they have a couple other players who are taking shots and shooting a very low %.

Anyway, this game is far from a slam dunk for BG.  It's one BG should win, especially at home, but has been kind of limping along since leaving NYC.  Let's hope the team can put together a complete effort and get this W.

No comments :