Sunday, October 21, 2018

Two National Statistical Leaders

In the midst of another disastrous season, there are a couple Falcons having big years by any standard.  I think we all expect to see Scott Miller up there on the national lists, but I think we are underappreciating the load Doege is carrying. 

Remember, BG is last in the MAC in rushing yards and yards per attempt.

Doege:

#15 in completions per game
#8 in passing TDs
#9 in passing yards
#7 in points responsible for

With all that, he's #6 in MAC in passing efficiency.  All the leaders are low-attempt, high productivity QBs.  Only Woody Barrett in the top 10 has tried more passes.  So, Doege's 8 INT look like a lot, but it is 2.8% of passing attempts, about the same percentage as Rourke, who has only 4 INT on fewer attempts.

I looked into this and found a couple interesting things.  First, the formula does take INT RATE into account, not just the base number.  That works two ways, though, because it helps on the INT but dilutes the impact of Doege's 20 TDS, which is also done by a rate. 

The other thing that is keeping his efficiency ranking down is a lack of yards per attempt, which is how the NCAA scores it.  To me, I don't understand that because that's mostly a measure of completion percentage, which is already included in the formula.  Anyway, as noted above, Doege is up there in passing yards, but that's partly because of the large number of overall attempts he has made.  BG is #1 in passing yardage in the MAC but #6 in yards per completion.

Here's a little web app where you can play around with this if you like.

Scott Miller is having a great year.  He is #5 yards per game, #10 in receiving TDs, #12 in receptions per game.  No doubt, these numbers benefit from BG's focus on the pass game, but they also benefit from the focus on him in the pass game.  Teams know he's the guy and he continues to produce.  He's been a great Falcon, in the top 10 on the reception list and moving up and is a guy we're going to remember for a long time.  A true Falcon.

1 comment :

Perry Boise said...

And all that having missed or did not have significant playing time in a couple games