Monday, August 28, 2017

Season Scenarios

OK, so it is now game week.  Coach Jinks has a presser later today.  By Saturday, we will be back in play again.  Let's enjoy it, kids!

Wanted to look at some various scenarios for the season.  As I noted in my previews, I think this team is set up for an incremental improvement.  We need that at least.  Our coaches have yet to prove they can execute a winning game plan against a good team.  We need a couple wins to know that we have the coaches to convert the talent they are recruiting into championship players.

The schedule is tough.  Honestly, in my view, if BG goes 6-6 and makes a bowl game, that's acceptable progress.  That's not guaranteed.  A 5-7 or even 4-8 record is possible...especially if the team is hit by injuries and especially then in a couple areas where depth is probably not what it should be (both lines, the d backfield, for example).  Even with relative health, 6-6 is not guaranteed.

Here's why.  BG has three very difficult non-conference road games.  Odds are strong you start the conference season 1-3.

So, you need to find 5 wins in the MAC.

Yes, Buffalo, Akron and Kent are beatable.  However, you play at Buffalo and at Kent.

In terms of the division leaders, you play @Miami and have OU at home, both tough games.

Cross-over games are really tough.  You have NIU and UT at home and then you are @EMU--a team that is getting better every year.

Another 4-8 year is not out of the question.

So.  A few scenarios.

The Reasonable Expectation:

BG beats South Dakota, Buffalo, Kent and Akron.  And then, let's add EMU and Miami.  Or OU.  See what I mean?

Somewhat above expectations

So, to go 7-5 (6-2 in MAC), you'd have to beat Miami and OU.  Or pick off one of cross-over games...NIU or UT??  If this happens, you have a very good shot to win the division or be in a tie-breaker.


You go 8-4.  Whether that's 7-1 in MAC play or you pick off an upset in one of the non-conference games.  Either way, this team wins 8 games and we can stop worrying.

Somewhat below what you'd like to see

Team goes 5-7.  You're going to need to beat EMU, Miami, or OU to get this done, probably.  The 6-6 scenario has 2 wins among those 3.  This one has 1.

A long summer of hand wringing

Team goes 4-8.  You beat none of those three.  This is possible.  Team makes no progress over last year as it relates to the win/loss record.

I don't want to think about it

Team goes 2-10.  You beat South Dakota and Kent.  This scenario isn't very likely because I honestly think we are going to be better.  On the other hand, everyone else is working to get better.  Last year we had the easy part of the schedule at the end and this year it is kind of in the middle.  It is not impossible, especially if you have injuries.

Again, from my view, a 6-6 win is a success for this team.  (Also, anybody hanging 70 on us again would make it tough to be upbeat about the year).  Anything better is great.  Anything less is not the end of the world (obviously) and doesn't mean the Jinks experiment has failed.  It just means we haven't gotten any evidence it is going to work and it sets you up for a third year that will be a make or break year.


joel said...

I completely agree with your assessment for this year and for the program. However, is I get the feeling that those in Ay-Ziggy Nation aren't willing to say year three for Coach Huger is make or break as you reference potentially for Jinks above and for next year. I think year 3 for college athletics is always the make or break year. While I'm pumped for football. I believe basketball should have the same scrutiny this season. I welcome your perspective.

Orange said...


Thanks for reading. I hear what you are saying and generally agree on Year 3. I think in Huger's case, he needs to have four. Jinks took over a program that had won a title. Huger took over a program reeling from coaching changes. This year's roster has 7 players who have not played significant D1 time and I hope to see the team improve but it is unreasonable to think too much improvement will happen. I think we will know where we are better after next season.

joel said...

Orange, thanks for your reply and perspective. While I'm excited about football I also want to see success in basketball. I'm willing to give Coachella Huger four years because he's an alum. He's also a good guy, but so was Louis Orr and it was evident to me that he wasn't going to get the job done after year three and we suffered many years after that. I'll also say that Coach Jans took over a weak program and you could feel a change in year one, public behavior non-withstanding for my point. So I'll keep my concerns under wraps through this year and will be willing to support through year 4.

Orange said...

We can definitely agree on that....getting men's basketball back on track would be huge.