Sunday, October 02, 2016

The Way It's Going to Be

And the beat goes on.

Another Saturday.  Another Falcon lost, this one a loss that would have been considered inconceivable when the schedule came out.

Taking nothing from EMU...I am incredibly impressed with what they are doing with that program.  They were absolutely nothing, and they have done the right things the right way and they are starting to see progress.  Their fans were jacked up Saturday and they should be.  EMU has a shot at a bowl game this year...tough MAC West schedule ahead...but they are building something and they are playing the game the right way.

From BG's perspective, it just lets the flood waters into the program more.  The water was already at a biblical level after BG had suffered its two worst defeats in program history in the first four games.  But, the staff would say, we start conference play at 0-0, and can still win the East again.  And, Jinks actually indicated they were looking forward to playing against lower competition.

Another dyke broke Saturday.  BG did perform better against EMU in all phases of the game.  Still, it wasn't enough and improved though they are, it was still EMU.

Here's what Coach Jinks said:

"I've got an idea this is the way it's going to be."

Eesh.  He went on to say that we're going to be in dogfights every week, but this is one of those situations where I think the truth slips out.

Because I've got the same idea.  So do you.

Here's the thing.  When I did the preview, the worst case scenario I had for the team was 5-7...with wins over North Dakota, EMU, Miami, Buffalo and Kent.  Today...look there's no other way to put this...there are now no sure wins left on the schedule.  A 1-11 finish is not impossible.  Miami is winless but improving...played OU very tough today...and if you are a longtime BG fan you shudder at the idea of playing a winless Miami.  Kent played Akron twice and we play them there.  The best chance is Buffalo, on the last day of the year, on the day after Thanksgiving in what promises to be a vacant Doyt.

Do I think we will go 1-11?  No, not really.  But it is possible.  On the Sagarin ratings this week, there are only 8 teams ranked below us in the FBS.  The only one we play is Buffalo.

We're not a good football team and we're going to have the record of a not very good football team.

This idea everyone has is pretty straightforward.  We're not going to get any new players on defense.  They played hard and kept us in the game, but new players are not showing up.  We're not going to get new WRs.  And we're not going to get new coaches.  We're not going to have a secondary coach show up who has been here before.  Or a QB coach.  Or a LB coach.  Or a WR coach.  Or a head coach.

So, yeah, I've got an idea this is the way it's going to be.

There is one thing that does present some hope.  This is coming in another post, but this debacle is all on the offensive side of the ball.  You can't play this system and win with that kind of offense.  So the hope is at QB.  Morgan certainly had a hit and miss game and was pretty average for the day.  But you could see things...mobility...extending plays...and he made a few ridiculously good throws.  He also missed some.  Coach said that he was jacked up (as expected) and missed some very open throws.  As he plays his second and third games, that is one thing that actually could improve and it would make a difference.  If we can start scoring in the mid-30s, we get more competitive.

For now, there is nothing good to report.  The defending champs are looking at a non-zero chance at a 1-11 season, no realistic shot at the East or a bowl game and the uncertainty of whether the guys we have on the sideline have the faintest ability to right the ship.  A wrecked season can set you back years in the MAC.  Let's hope that it isn't going to be that way.


Anonymous said...

I overheard a conversation that Moosbrugger had with a fan at the game yesterday. He just said PJ Fleck had a 1-11 season his first year at WMU. He also said that Jinks "inherited a terrible situation." Is Jinks the next PJ Fleck? I guess we'll have to wait and see. Knowing my alma mater, I would say that we're stuck with him until 2020, even if that means we become the next EMU.

Orange said...

Excellent commment....some thoughts.

I agree that Jinks is not going anywhere. Not sure he makes it through the whole contract, but he makes it through more than half of it.

Second, there is the possibility that he does what Babers did and shake up his staff after the season.

PJ Fleck? OK, first, Fleck took over a 4-8 and went 1-11. And he won 8 games in year I'd be careful with the PJ Fleck comparisons if I was with our Athletic Administration.

Let it not go unnoticed that he picked a 1-11 comparison, too.

I also don't think Jinks inherited a "terrible" situation. I think Jinks and his assistants inherited a situation that was worse than it looked and he made it a terrible situation.

Now, one thing to keep in mind. There's really nothing else for Moosbrugger to say. Even if he was planning to fire Jinks the day after the Buffalo game, he has to say things like that. He will talk like that right up until the day he lets him go or doesn't renew his contract. (That is, if he is here longer than Jinks.)