Friday, October 14, 2016

25 questions about throwing out the record book

What is their body of work?

UT is good.  Real good.  They have been among the top teams in the MAC, and only were kept out of the MAC title game by an inability to beat NIU.  This year, the big game will be WMU.  Obviously, no secret here, they've owned BG for the past six years, even as BG had two of the program's most successful teams.  This year, they are 4-1 with only one loss---a very close loss @BYU.  They are 3 TD favorites in this game and should be.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

They have 29, which is hardly a pretty veteran team.

Who are their statistical leaders?

Logan Woodside is #5 in completion percentage, #2 in passing efficiency, #3 in passing TDs, #7 in passing yards per game, #3 in passing yards per completion, #11 in total offense and #1 in passing yards per attempt.  He is #5 in points responsible for.

Jon'vea Johnson and Michael Roberts are tied for #9 in receiving TDs.

Cody Thompson is #4 in receiving yards per game.

Kareen Hunt is #18 in rushing yards per game.

What is their turnover ratio?

They are -4 for the year.

Offense:

 How is their QB play?

Hard for it to be much better.  Logan Woodside is one of the most productive QBs in the nation and the most productive in the MAC.

What is their scoring and yards per play?


They are 2nd in the MAC in scoring and #1 in yards per play with 7.5 per play.  That second figure is third in the country.

Can they run the ball?

They are 3rd in the MAC in yards per carry at 4.9.  Feature back Kareem Hunt averages 5.2 yards per carry and leads the MAC at 110 yards per game.

Do they pass the ball?

They are very good.  This is a point of maximum concern, given the issue in BG's secondary this year.  These guys are probably better than Memphis.  They are completing 70% of their passes with 15.9 yards per completion, which is just astounding.  Add in 20 TDs and 3 INT.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 59% of their plays, which is a strong committment to the run.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They lead the nation at 57%.

Do they score in the red zone?

Yes.  They score at 5.8 points per trip, which is huge.  Also, they have scored 29 TDs and have 22 red zone trips.

Did they protect the quarterback?

How does 3 sacks in 158 attempts (1.9%) grab you?

Defense:

There's some idea that UT is a poor defensive team.  It is true that their offense is better than their defense, but they are a solid defensive team so far.

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

They are #2 in scoring defense and #6 in yards per play...we'll see if there is anything in the numbers about that discrepancy.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are average.  They allow 4.4 yards per play which is 9th in the MAC.

Can they be passed on?

They lead the MAC in pass efficiency defense.  They allow only 47% completions and have only 4 TD passes against and 1 INT.  They allow 13.9 yards per completion, which is high.  Teams do more running than passing against them...56%.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?


Here's one explanation for why they allow fewer points than their yards per play would suggest.  They are ridiculously effective on 3rd down.  They allow only 19% conversions, which is #3 in the country.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are good.  They allow 4.7 per trip, which is 13 out of 15 overall attempts, but only 8 TDs.

Do they pressure the QB?

They are pretty good.  When you look at their bulk number, remember that run-heavy play mix.  They get sacks on 8.8% of passing attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?


They are 10th in net punting.  They are 11th in allowing return yards.

Punt Return?

They are the middle of the MAC pack.  They do have one score and one block.

Placekicking?

He's average.  He's 4 of 8, and 1 of 5 from 40-49.  Long 42, blocked once.

Kickoff?

They are really good.  Opponents start at their 21.  He has only 6 touchbacks in 32 KOs, so we are looking at a team that kicks it in play and covers.  Potentially big issue for BG.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 21, which is well below average.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

Not great, Bob.  Coach dragged out the old "throw out the record book" trope this week.  BG needs to throw it WAY out.  No other way to put it...nothing we have seen from either team this year suggests BG has a chance to win this game and...well...I think UT is at least as good as Memphis is.  In order for this dreadful streak to turn around, BG is going to need to play in a way that they haven't even gotten halfway to all season.  Could happen.  But it is going to be a serious shock, maybe the biggest shock in the history of this rivalry.





1 comment :

Hamilto Bergeran said...

I hope for the best. But losing by 33 or more is likely, not losing by 21.