Permutate, Cogitate, II

Updated with OU-Akron game on November 7.

1. Can BG win the East outright.

Answer. Yes.

Miami would have to lose to Akron and @OU
Buffalo would have to lose to BG and Kent
BG would have to beat Buffalo
OU would have to beat Miami.

Under that scenario, we are only two loss team.

2. Can we win any other way?

Yes, in fact. Like this....

Miami would have to lose to Akron and @OU
Buffalo would have to lose to BG and beat Kent.
BG would have to beat Buffalo
OU would have to beat Miami.
Only BG and Buffalo are left with two losses
BG beats Buffalo due to tiebreaker.

Otherwise, I don't see it.

We have a shot if we end up in a three way tie with OU and Buffalo, but it gets really complicated. We'd all be 1-1 among the teams in the tie. Now it depends on who is fourth. If its Miami, then OU would win, since they would be the only team with a win over Miami. If Akron ends up fourth, it would probably be BG, since under this scenario Akron would have to have beaten OU and that would leave BG and Buffalo, and we would have to have beaten Buffalo.

If we end up in a 3-way tie with Miami and Buffalo, Miami has beaten both teams in the tie and would win the tie-breaker.

If we end up in a three way tie with Miami and Ohio (assuming an Ohio win over Miami), OU would win having beat us and Miami.

Miami and Akron play next Wednesday, November 14. If Miami wins, we're out. On the plus side, Akron looked good last night--better than they did against us.

Finally, you might wonder if 3 losses could get you in. Answer is no: Either BG (by beating Buffalo) or Buffalo (by beating BG and at worst losing to Kent) will end up with two losses in the East.