As the dust settles with the victory over Miami, people are starting to do the math and wonder what would happen if we did lose to Toledo. We know we lose the tie-breaker to Akron, but what about a three-way tie with BG, Miami, and Akron, each with a 1-1 record among the teams in the tie.
It would appear, in fact, that we could easily know on Monday night, if Miami beat OU (which I expect them to do).
Here's a direct quote from the Miami news release:
If a win over Miami and loss to Toledo results in a three-way tie with Miami and Akron, the tie would come down to the third tiebreaker, which goes to the team whose three cross-division opponents owned the highest winning percentage.
Here are the standings so far in this "race."
BGSU: Ball State, Western Michigan and Toledo (14-6)
Miami: (NIU, CMU, EMU) (10-10)
Akron opponents (NIU, CMU and Ball) (12-8)
Remaining Games for cross-division rivals:
Nov. 16 - Wednesday (Implications for all 3--BG Needs UT to win)
*Northern Illinois at Toledo, 7:30
Nov. 19 - Saturday (Implications for all three)
*Eastern Michigan at Buffalo, 1:30
*Central Michigan at Ball State, 1:00
Nov. 21 - Monday (Miami must win or this scenario doesn't even happen)
*Miami at Ohio, 7:30
Nov. 22 - Tuesday (UT wins, or this scenario doesn't even happen)
*Toledo at Bowling Green, 7:00
Nov. 23 - Wednesday (Effects all three teams)
*Western Michigan at Northern Illinois, 1:00
*Kent State at Akron, 10:00 a.m.
So, let's kill some more time with what if.
What's the maximum amount of wins Miami's opponents can get?
If NIU beats Toledo, EMU beats Buffalo, CMU beats Ball State, and Northern beats WMU, than they would be 14-10. If that happened, BG would be 15-9, due to UT's win against us. We can't have fewer than 15, so I can't see how Miami beats us in this category.
Now, how about Akron?
If NIU beats Toledo and Western, and they get one win and one loss when Central and Ball play each other, they go 15-9, which is a tie with us and probably means that the head to head kicks in and Akron goes.
So, if Toledo beats NIU, they can't go over 14, and since BG has a minimum of 15 under this scenario....
IF TOLEDO BEATS NIU AND MIAMI BEATS OU, WE ARE THE EAST CHAMPIONS.
Or so I think until someone proves me wrong. (Maureen Fulton of the Blade has been on AZZ.com with the same analysis)