Bellarmine Preview

The Men's Basketball team makes its way down to Louisville to take on Bellarmine.

Bellarmine (the Knights) are in their 4th year in Division I.  They have had some decent years, but the last couple years have been pretty rough. They went 8-23 last year and 4-12 in the Atlantic Sun.  Blue Ribbon picked them 8th...ASUN coaches had them 10th and the media had them 11th.

This year they are 0-5.  That includes home losses to VMI (kenpom #342) and Southern Indiana (318),  along with @VCU, @Marshall and @Louisville.

Their current kenpom is 336.

Which would all be something to look forward to, except that last year they beat us by 18 at the Stroh, riding hot shooting that was the best against BG in five years before that.   It was worse than that.  I said they were 8-23, but only 5 of those wins were in D1 and therefore one of those was against BG.

It was probably the low point of the season.

Bellarmine was legit in DII.  They made 22 NCAA tournaments and won it in 2011.  Their coach is Scott Davenport, who has been their 22 years.  He has won 72% of his games. He is 57-67 in DI.

As of today on Kenpom, the Atlantic Sun is the #23 ranked conference and the MAC is #21.

Last year, they flummoxed BG with a packed-in match-uppy zone.  They will need that this year, because they are currently #357 (out of 364) in defensive efficiency.  They are #341 in defensive FG% and #346 in defending the 3FG. They have played at 67 possessions, which is pretty slow.  

Offensively, they are scoring at .99 points per possession, which is below average.  They are a decent shooting team, but turn the ball over a lot and get hardly any offensive rebounds. They are an excellent FT shooting team but don't get to the line very often.

Their leading scorer is Jack Karasinski, a 6'7" F who missed most of last season after a concussion.  He was at William & Mary then. He's scoring 18.3 PPG on 68% 2FG shooting and 50% 3FG shooting. That's in 25 minutes a game.

Ben Johnson was pre-season All-ASUN.  He's 6'3". He's averaging 12.6 PPG on 48% and 31% shooting.  He scored 20 against us last year.

Billy Smith is scoring 10.4 PPG on 64% 2FG shooting and 36% 3FG shooting.  He's 6'7" and started his career at Miami.  Had 16 in last year's game.

Their leading rebounder is Curt Hopf (5.4), he missed all of last season due to injury. Dylan Branson, who transferred from SEMO, leads them with a little over 3 assists per game.

BG will be favored in this one and I hope we are able to turn the tables from last year.  After this one, we next to return to action in Tempe, playing Weber State first.

Standings, Tiebreaker, Shrug

 

OK, so after last night, here is where things stand.

OU got a huge win beating a UT team that played a completely listless second half.  There was one call that went against them, and I get it, it can make a difference in football, but I felt like OU was better than them play after play.

Anyway, they are out.

A bunch of people were trying to figure out the tiebreakers for various scenarios.  I know @hustlebelt eventually concluded what I did, which is that it is borderline impossible to interpret some of the language in the tie breaker rules that the MAC published.

As @hustlebelt pointed out, this may be why the Big Ten took four days to figure out whether Oregon had clinched a berth in the title game.

My observation would be that the MAC hired the same people who write instructions for assembling furniture to write these tie-breaking guidelines. As an aside, @Hustlebelt and I should be hired next year and we will get it right.

So.  BG wins both or loses both and it is over.

The complicated part comes with a split.

If BG beats Ball State and loses to Miami, then for there to be a conversation at 6-2, Ohio would have to lose to Ball State and UB beat Kent.  Miami is in. If there was a tie for the second spot with OU, BG, and UB, I make BG and UB 4-0 among common opponents and OU 3-1 (loss to Ball State).  I can't take it any further...and I might have that wrong.

If BG lost to Ball State and beat Miami, and OU lost to Ball State and UB beat Kent, you have a 4-way tie with two slots.  I make it Miami and UB in the final, because BG and OU would have both lost to Ball State, now a common opponent and Miami and UB did not.

Hopefully, some better info will come out.  This exact process was why the MAC coaches in basketball wanted to get rid of double byes.  You are conferring big advantages on these minute tie-breakers.  I predict that controversy in major conferences on this matter will lead to conference semi-finals.

Falcons Get First D1 Win

After the game, Coach Simon said this was an important game for us and it was.  We had some tough games to start with and then we're on the road for a little while and this was a game with a not-great D1 team and we needed to put it away.

Which we did.

The first half did not go so great.  Five minutes in, BG was down 14-5.  With 10 minutes left, the Purple Eagles were still up 9.  BG went on an 11-2 run to tie it up with 6:50 left.  Niagara led for most of the remainder of the half, and led 37-33 at the break. BG led for :29 in the first half.

In the post-game, Coach said he asked the team kindly if they might not focus on playing defense in the second half, to which they kindly agreed (or words to that effect).

BG had the lead a minute-and-a-half in and led for the last 16 minutes of the game.  The decisive exchange came with about 9 minutes left.  BG was up 4.  They got a Butler 3FG, a stop, a Butler 2FG, a stop, a Butler 3FG, a stop, a Johnson 2FG, a stop and a Johnson 3FG and with 6:51 BG was up 17.

It was over at that point.  Win probability is 99%.  Niagara got it to 8 with :35 left, but BG was in control the rest of the way.

BG scored 43 points in the second half.  40 of them came from Towns, Johnson and Butler.

The game was played at 63 possessions, which is really slow.  BG had a great offensive game--1.21 points per possession, which they got to only twice last year in D1 games.  In the last 10 years, they have only lost twice when scoring at that pace. They held Niagara to 1.08, which is not a great defensive game, but good enough.  Also, BG was able to be that efficient while playing at NU's pace.

BG shot 64% for EFG, their second highest in the Simon era (Lipscomb).  That's 67% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG, both of which are scalding.  Niagara shot 53%, making 42% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG. 

BG had the advantage on turnovers, but had a strong disadvantage on offensive rebounding and a small one on FT Rate. NU made 10 of 14 and BG made 9 of 10 at the line.

BG had some stellar offensive performances.

First, Marcus Johnson.  He had 24 points....that's 8-9 on 2FG and 2-2 on 3FG and 2-2 at the line. Five rebounds and 3 assists to go with it.  He's on his way to being a national media darling.  Note that Coach Simon said after the game that he might be best at passing...called him an "elite" passer.

Derrick Butler had a similar game.  He was sick last week, which explains his low minute count in Lansing. He had 16 points on 4 of 5 2FG shooting, 2 of 2 on 3FG and 2-2 at the line. Add 3 rebounds and 3 assists.

And Sam Towns, had 16 on 4 of 7 2FG, 2 of 3 from 3FG, 2-2 at the line, 5 rebounds and 2 blocked shots.

That's 3 pure jet fuel offensive performances. Javonte Campbell only scored 5 and only had 3 shots for 2FG, but he's a strong defender and contributes either way.

Point being, BG has some weapons.  A good example is Sam Towns, who made 1 3FG last year and has 4 so far this year.  Coach says he has worked hard in the gym. Campbell didn't score, Khayat played only 15 minutes and Squier did not play at all.  BG has a lot of weapons...this was a team we were supposed to beat.  They will need to sharpen it up for tougher games in the conference, but if it comes together we have the potential of being really tough to play.

Next up is Bellarmine on Saturday from Louisville.  BG should be favored against the winless Knights who smoked BG in the Stroh last year for one of their 8 wins.

Purple Eagle Preview

The Niagara Purple Eagles are picked last in MAAC by Blue Ribbon.  Coaches have them 8th.  Kenpom had them second to last--13th--second to last, ahead of only Canisius.

They have made 3 NCAA tournament appearances, the last one in 2007. They made the Sweet Sixteen in 1970 with a team coached by legend Frank Leyden and led by Hall-of-Famer Calvin Murphy.

In the 1950s, they were regulars in the NIT when it was an important tournament.  Their early teams featured Larry Costello, who went on to be an NBA Champion as a player and coach and 2nd-team All-NBA and is in the Basketball Hall of Fame.

This is our 10th meeting, with Niagara leading the series 6-3.  BG won 2 out of 3 in the 1950s, but it has been tougher going since then. Niagara has won the last 4, the last of which was in 2010 at Calihan Hall in a hidden corner of some bigger tournament.

They are coached by Greg Paulus, remembered as a three-time all-ACC guard for Duke.  He was an assistant at Navy, OSU, Louisville and GW before getting the Niagara gig.  He is 68-80 in his sixth season.

They are 1-2, 0-2  in D1 play.  They lost by 36 @MSU and then lost in OT to Detroit (in Calihan Hall...whooaaaaa).

Like many teams, Niagara had a complete roster turnover from last year.

Niagara's kenpom is 333.  Detroit is 343.  BG is 252.

ESPN gives BG a 74% chance of winning and kempom gives BG a 77% chance.

Niagara is led by Olumide Adelodun, who actually played two years for OU before transferring to DII Winona and then came to Niagara.  He is 6'5", scores 16 PPG on 46% 3FG shooting and 4 RPG.  

Jahari Williamson is a G who transferred from Elon.  He is scoring 11 PPG on 50% 3FG shooting. 

Jadean Marshall is 6'4" and a transfer from Omaha.  He is scoring 10.3 PPG on a rough 38% shooting.

Josiah Davis leads the team with 11 assists.  He transferred from Tennessee Tech.

Their top rebounder is Justice Smith at 4.3 RPG. He's 6'6" and a transfer from East Tennesee State.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (2-9)  Beat Georgetown

PSU:  (9-1) Beat Purdue

TX A&M: (7-2) Beat New Mexico State

ODU:  (4-6)  Lost to James Madison

Akron:  (2-7) #MACTION

NIU: (5-4) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-9) #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) #MACTION

CMU (3-6) #MACTION

WMU: (5-4) #MACTION

BSU (3-6): #MACTION

MU:  (5-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Michigan State Scores Last 18 Points to Win

Things were actually going pretty well for the Falcons.  Heading into the last media timeout of the first half, BG was up 12 points.  The last four minutes--my BG English professors taught me that this is foreshadowing--went 15-3 to MSU and it was tied at the half.

Even so, if I had told you we'd be tied at halftime, you'd have been OK with that.

BG came out hard in the second half and had an 8-point lead with 11 minutes left.   MSU had it tied with 9:35 left. BG led by 4 with 7:11 left.  The score was 72-68. The sad fact is that BG did not score again while MSU scored 18 points in that period (40-minute equivalent of 102).  

It was a disaster.  Coach said BG got a "little shot happy" and that's clear...they missed 6 3FGs in that period (40-minute equivalent of 34), some of them just rimming out and a decent number as open looks.  They also missed 2 2FGs, the front end of a 1-1, and had 3 turnovers.

MSU is a good team, it was on their floor, and the Falcons led for over 24 minutes but winning games like this is really hard for a reason.

The announcers mentioned that BG hadn't won a P5 game since 2005.  I went back and looked, that was a crazy win over Virginia Tech when there was a scramble at the rim at the buzzer and a VA Tech player tipped it into their own basket.  No replay in those days, and Dakich said after the game that his strategy was to get off the floor as fast as possible and "make them drag us out," an approach that worked out poorly in a buzzer-banging blizzard in Buffalo a while later.

Anyhow.

The game was played at 71 possessions, our slowest of the year.  BG had 1.02 points per possession, which is below the national average of 1.05.  The Falcons were outshot...their 61% on 2FG is excellent, but the 19% on 3FG is far from it....especially when 42% of your shots are from 3FG.  (Nationally, 40% of shots have been from 3FG this year). BG only shot worse from 3FG 3 times last year. Turnovers were close...MSU was dominant on the offensive boards, as expected, and made 28 of 32 FTs, while BG made 13 of 14.  Overall, BG was called for 26 fouls and MSU for 12.

Marcus Johnson had 23 points, but it took him 24 shots to get there. He was 8 of 13 from 2FG and 1-11 from 3FG.  Coach said after the game that we are asking a lot out of Marcus right now, and it was made worse with foul trouble.  He won't go 1-11 again, Coach said.  And he wasn't intended to play that many minutes.  He also led the team with 5 rebounds and had 4 turnovers.

Campbell had 14 points on 6 of 10 and 0 of 3 shooting.  He also had 4 turnovers and 2 steals.

Youssef Khayat on 3 of 5 2FG shooting and 7-7 at the line.

This is a team still very much trying to find combinations that work. Simon played 10 guys.

• Khayat 37
• Campbell 36
• Johnson 35
• Thomas 28
• Towns 26
• Green 11
• Felt 9
• Butler 8 (Down each game from 28 at Southern Miss)
• Humphrey 7
• Exacte 2
• Squire DNP

We played 19 lineups for the game.  I feel like there's a foundation with the starters--I am surprised that we haven't gotten more out of our depth. BG had 6 bench points and two players (Butler and Humphrey) had terrible +/- in limited minutes.

There is a long way to go. We can get our first D1 win on Tuesday against Niagara (#333), they lost to MSU by 36.  They are coached by Duke star Greg Paulus.

Football Nabs Verbal

BG has a verbal commit for football.  It is Reece Little, from Findlay.  He's a 6'3" and 200 pound TE who played with one of the top QBs in the country---Ryan Montgomery, who is going to Georgia.

247 shows offers from UB, UA and EMU.   He played and contributed since he was a sophomore, was first-team all-conference.

Ohio Prep Redzone had him #124 in OH and #9 at TE and seems to project as a hybrid catch/block guy that is increasingly popular in offenses today.

Signing day is December 4 and roster chaos should start shortly thereafter.

Welcome to the Falcons, Reece.