CMU MBB Preview

So, to Mt. Pleasant in the last game before Snowpocalypse, the world-ending epic that will unfold in the middle of the week.

This was not shaping up to be a big year for the Chips and they have lived that out. After winning 7 games last year, they discharged Keno Davis and brought in Tony Barbee.  The new coach is a Calipari guy--as a player and assistant--and took UTEP to the NCAAs before a not-so-great time at Auburn, with point-shaving and rampant dismissals and transfers of players...on top of a 40% winning %.  He went back to being an assistant at Kentucky.

The first thing he did was revise the scheduling practices, taking the Chips from 4 non-D1 games a year to 0. On the contrary, they have played Kentucky, Gonzaga and Xavier.  Having said that, they are 3-13 and 2-3 in MAC play, after some COVID hold-ups.  They played only 4 games in January.  They beat Eastern Illinois--the 4th worst team in D1--along with @ Kent and @ NIU.  Their Kenpom started at 301 and has fallen to 303...in December they lost to Western Illinois, Youngstown State, UIC and Detroit Mercy, all teams in the 200s.

He brought only 3 scholarship players back and added 10 new players.

BG has won 4 out of 5 over CMU, including 2 of the last 3 at McGuirk.

On one side, this one shapes up much like the Kent game.  CMU is the #12 offense and BG is the #12 defense.  In the Kent game, the Flashes ended up looking like the Lakers from the 1980s and that was on our floor.  If that happens here, the result will be the same.  Meanwhile, BG is #2 in scoring and CMU is #8 on defense.  Kent was really good on defense, so BG has an opportunity to score here.

CMU is the worst shooting team in the MAC.  This is interesting since BG is the easiest to shoot against.  They are actually really good from 3FG--#3 in the MAC--but are dead last in 2FG and one of the 10 worst in the country. They take decent care of the ball and arent terrible on the offensive boards or getting to the line.  They take 36% of their shots from 3FG, which is slightly below average.

Aside:  The MAC is #28 as a conference making 3FGs, out of 32.

On the other side, CMU plays poor defense and not nearly as good as Kent, for example.  Their are average at the shot, but force no turnovers and allow a lot of FTs.  They are very good on the offensive boards.  They lead the MAC in 3FG% defense but are last in defending the 2FG.

CMU has used 12 starting lineups this season.  In MAC play, they have been led by Cameron Healey, who is scoring 13.7 PPG on 73% 2FG shooting and 32% 3FG shooting.  He's a native Australian and grad transfer from Albany.

Harrison Henderson is scoring 13.8 PPG on 41% and 43% shooting...very few 3FGs though.  He adds 4.2 RPG.  He's a grad transfer who played at USC, Milwaukee and Southern before heading to CMU.

Ralph Bissainthe is their third-leading scorer at 12.4 PPG and 7.6 RPG.  He's shooting 41% from 2FG (unusual for your top rebounder) and 50% on limited 3FGs.  He's 6'7" and a JUCO transfer who is in his 2nd year at CMU.  Started his career at UIC.

Their fourth-leading scorer was Jermaine Jackson, Jr, but he left the team in January to start his professional career.  He went from Detroit Mercy to LIU to CMU, to the "pros."

Ugly Loss to Kent at Stroh

It was an ugly day at the Stroh.  BG lost a game it should be able to win and it happened in a very frustrating and disappointing fashion.

Kent plays very physical basketball.  They commit a lot of fouls on the theory that they can't all be called.  And that tends to be right--at least it was yesterday.  In the post-game, Coach Huger said the officials decided they "weren't going to call anything" and you think, yeah, that was true, and then you realize you have that impression despite the fact Kent was called for 27 fouls and had 2 guys foul out.

And then there's BG's defense, which is just pure ugly.  BG has always struggled to defend dribble penetration, and that's still going on now.

BG allowed Sincere Carry 30 points on 7 of 11 and 4 of 8 shooting.  BG also allowed Bryan Trimble 32 points.  In contrast, when Plowden had 21 early, Kent took him out of the game, sometimes triple-teaming him.  We had no such answer for Carry.

Kent came in the #10 offense in the MAC and they got 91 points. Their 1.20 points per possession was their highest against D1 opposition since....their game at the Stroh last year.  

Their 58-point second half was 1.4 points per possession.

BG went into their 3-2 zone they have been using and Kent absolutely shredded it.

Coach Huger noted that BG needed to knock down shots that were open when Plowden was triple-teamed.  And that's true.  To me, it begs the question...why wasn't 83 points and 1.09 points per possession enough to win at home against the 10th best offense in the MAC?

To illustrate.  The 2019 team was 15-0 at 1.09 points per possession or better.  This team is 6-3.

Meanwhile, when you give up 1.20 your chances to win are very small.  BG is 2-15 over the last five years at that level of defense.

Kent came in the #316 shooting team in the country.  They made 57% of their 2FGs and 41% of their 3FGs.  It was their best MAC shooting game of the season.

They combined that with a dominant performance on the offensive glass...BG's worst performance in MAC play and the same percentage of offensive rebounds that OSU got against us.

Meanwhile, BG shot decently and took good care of the ball.  They were destroyed on the boards and lost by 8 despite having a +9 advantage at the FT line.

Daeqwon Plowden had a great game.  He had 27 points on 4 of 8 from 2FG and 4 of 5 from 3, made all 7 FTs and added 6 rebounds and only 2 turnovers.  When they triple-teamed him, he didn't force the play but got the ball to a teammate.

'

Myron Gordon had 13 on 3 of 5 and 1 of 5 shooting.  He made all 4 FTs and added 8 assists over 1 turnover.  Joe Reece had 12 on 4 of 8 shooting, but only 3 rebounds in 24 minutes.  Also 3 steals and 3 blocks.

BG is 4-6.  Here is the picture.  BG is currently tied for the last spot into Cleveland.  They play the team they are tied with on Tuesday.  Big picture, though, we have yet to see much that shows we can be that #8 or (#7) seed that makes a run.  Remember, this is the soft part of the schedule and we've lost 3 of our last 4 at home.  We're turning out to be the team that they predicted us to be.  Maybe that can be changed.

Reminder: The top eight seeds advance to Cleveland.

Still plenty of #MACtion left... pic.twitter.com/T6OJleMIyf

— #MACtion (@MACSports) January 30, 2022

 

Kent Preview

 In comes Kent State in a game that is going to be interesting and telling BG as it approaches the middle of the MAC season.

Kent was picked #5 in the MAC.  That would appear to be at least in the range.  They are 10-9 with 2 non-D1 wins.  They are 5-4 in the MAC. On the upside, they are the only team in the MAC to beat UT so far this year (writing this before the Friday games), as well as beating UA and WMU and @ BSU and @ EMU. They have lost to NIU and CMU at Kent--not good--along with @ OU and @ UB.  They have 3 of their last 4.

Kent has beaten BG the last 4 times the teams have played and the last 2 at the Stroh.  Overall, they are a model program in the MAC. They have had 23 straight non-losing seasons. In those 23 years, they have made the NCAA tournament 6 times, the Elite Eight once, and five regular season titles.  They have 18 20-win seasons in that 23-year run and would have won 20 last year if there was a full season.

The game presents a contrast in styles.  BG plays at the fastest pace in the MAC and Kent State is #11.

There's more.  In addition to playing the #2 offense in the MAC and last in defense.  Kent is #10 in offense and #2 in defense.  The BG offense against Kent defense will be an interesting battle.

Kent State is a terrible shooting team.  They are lost in the MAC and #316 in the country. They take an average number of 3FGs, but make only 24%, which is last in the MAC #343 in the country (out of 357).  They are 11th in making 2FGs.  They are just average taking care of the ball.  They do a good on the offensive boards and they lead the MAC getting to the line and making 74% when they get there.  

The interesting thing is that BG is the easiest team in the MAC to shoot on, so that will be an interesting contrast.  Also, BG has been good on the defensive boards and if they can keep the Flashes off the boards it will help a lotl

Kent is extremely effective on defense.  They are #2 against the shot and #1 at forcing turnovers.  They are very good on the defensive boards.  BG is good at all 3 of those things, and it will provide an interesting battle.  

On an individual basis, Giovanni Santiago has not started for the past 6 games.  He did not play at all in the last two and I don't know what his status is for Saturday.

 Their leading scorer is Duquesne transfer Sincere Carry.  He's scoring 19.4 PPG, but is not efficient, shooting 48% and 27%. He is #4 in scoring and #3 in assists. JUCO transfer Malique Jacobs is scoring 12 PPG on 40% 2FG shooting and 18% 3FG shooting.  He was all-defense in the MAC this year and leads the team with 7.3 RPG. Justyn Hamilton has 6.6 RPG.

BG MBB Beats EMU, Continue to Advance up Standings

BG won again last night in a game that they needed badly.  It went about as well as it could have and BG got a win when they were rarely tested.

The game was tied at 2 and 4, and then BG led for the remaining 36:44.  The game was tightly contested for about 5 minutes after BG took the lead and then the Falcons inched the lead out to 10.  It kind of kicked around between 6 and 9 until there were about 5 minutes left in the half.  BG took at 10 point lead and then held a double digit lead for the last 25 minutes of the game.  BG got the lead up to 14 with 3 minutes left and then ended up leading by 15 at the half.  Notably, the BG lead came despite playing without Plowden and Curtis, both of whom were in Michael-Huger-Two-Foul-Jail.  Note also that EMU had Monty Scott back but played without top scorer Noah Farrakhan for the game.

BG held a commanding lead for most of the half.  EMU did chip it down to 11 at one point, but BG switched into their secret 3-2 zone and that seemed to take the Eagles off their game and the lead got as high as 20 in the late minutes of the contest.

Both teams like to play fairly upbeat.  It was--the game ended at 72 possessions, which is a pretty good pace.  It probably would have been more, except BG started to slow down in the last 3 minutes ago.  From the preview, the key question was which would win out...BG's porous defense or EMU's limp attack.  The answer is...BG's porous defense won the day.  They held EMU to .99 points per possession--their best in MAC play--and scored 1.19 points per possession, which is pretty good.

The actual numbers are interesting.You don't often win a game by 14 when you are outshot by 4%, which is what happened here. BG had an enormous lead  in offensive rebounds and free throws, and that tipped the balance. EMU had only 4 offensive boards and the Falcons made 26 of 32 FTs and EMU was only 15 of 19.

BG shot 54% from 2FG and 18% on 3FG.  EMU shot 56% on 2FG and 20% on 3FG.  Neither team tried very many 3FGs.

BG had three players pick up the slack from Plowden and Curtis.  Myron Gordon has 21, on 5 of 7 from 2FG and 2 of 4 from 3FG, 7 of 9 at the line, and 3 assists over 0 turnovers.  Joe Reece had 20 points in 20 minutes.  He was 6 of 11 on 2FG and made his only 3.   Plus 5-6 at the line and 6 rebounds.  Kulackovskis had 16, on 5 of 6 from 2FG and 0-2 from 3FG.  He made 6 of 7 FTs and had 4 rebounds in 20 minutes. Plowden had 12 in 22 minutes, at 5 of 11 and 0-2, plus 5 rebounds.l  Chandler Turnver finished with 7 rebounds and Curtis had 3 assists in 11 minutes.

BG is now 4-5 in the MAC, 6th place and somewhat solidified in their effort to make it to Cleveland.  It would be nice to finish top 6, but there is a long way to go.  The Kent game is really important.  It's at home and the Flashes are only 5-4 and have lost to CMU and NIU, both at the MACC.  

MBB EMU Preview

So, things moving fast again for BG...this time with EMU coming into the Stroh.  As The Blade notes today, the jury is still out on this team.  To persuade the jury, BG is going to need to string together some good performances, which will partly mean stringing together solid segments of games.  Until that comes, BG is at best a .500 team and you will need to string 3 great games together to win the tournament.

The jury is right to be skeptical.  For example, talking about playing better defense against WMU is fine....but we aren't going to play WMU in every game.

The next opportunity is EMU.  

EMU finally grew tired of Rob Murphy and brought in Stan Heath.  Heath took Kent to the Elite Eight in his only year there--but it was a team that someone else had really built.  He went to Arkansas where he won 54% of his games and made the tournament twice and then to South Florida where he won 43% of his games and made the tournament once and won a game.  Having lost both jobs, he coached in the G League, where he won last year's title and was coach of the year.  He has also been MAC coach of the year and Big East coach of the year.

He is an EMU grad.

The Eagles are 7-10 and 6-10 in D1 games.  Under Murphy, they regularly played four non D1 games.  They are 2-4 in MAC play, having beaten WMU and CMU and losing to Ball State, NIU, KSU and Akron.  They only lost to the Zips by 2 in their last game, 46-44, at the JAR.  They also played without their top 2 scorers.

Tempo was, there is a slight contrast, but not as big as other recent games.  BG is #1 in the MAC in tempo and EMU is #7.

There is, however, a big contrast between these two teams.  BG is #3 in scoring and #12 in defense.  EMU is #9 in defense and #9 in offense.  When you see gaps that big, it shows that there will be contrasting styles.  Which team's strength will overcome the other's weakness more?

Eastern is a decent, average shooting team.  That comes from the #3 2FG shooting team in the MAC, paired against BG as the #10 team on 2FG defense.  They are #11 on the 3FG, but don't take very many.  They turn the ball over a lot and are terrible on the offensive boards--not unusual for a team trying to control the tempo--and they do get to the line.  They make 73% of their FTs, which is good, not great.

One note.  They played the Akron game without their two leading scorers and had 44 points.

The key here is defending the rim...something BG has struggled with more often than not.  

On the other side, the shooting is pretty predictable.  However, EMU is used to forcing tunrovers--something BG has struggled with lately and needs to be cleaned up.  BG is also better on the offensive boards than EMU has been allowing.  EMU leads the MAC in 2FG defense,

Their leading scorer is Noah Farrakhan.  He is a transfer from East Carolina, where he played 12 games in his only year.  He missed their last game, no idea of his status tomorrow.  He is scoring 14.6 PPG...not great on 2FG (36%) but good on 3FG (39%).  He is an 85% FT shooter.

In MAC play, their 2nd leading scorer is Bryce McBride.  He's scoring 13 a game on mostly 3FGs, and 33% on those. He's a JUCO transfer in his second year with EMU.

Monty Scott had a good pre-MAC season but has missed the last 3 games.  Their leading rebounder is Mo Njie.

Plowden spurs big close for Falcon MBB

Well, BG went to Kalamazoo needing a win and they got it.  It was relatively close.  I actually think WMU is playing really hard. They almost beat Akron at the JAR.  A win is a win.  It wasn't a great performance.  But good enough.

Much like the Akron game, BG came out strong and had a 9-point lead 5 minutes in.  With 9 minutes left the game was tied.  BG blew the lead back to 10 and led by 9 with 4 minutes left.  WMU then finished strong, but WMU finished with a 10-2 run to only trail by 1 at the half, which had to be good for them and disappointing for BG.

BG blew out to an 8-point lead but 2 minutes later WMU had the game tied again.  WMU had the better of the play for awhile, leading by 7 with 10 minutes left.  Three minutes later BG had the lead down to 1 and from there it was a pretty tight, compelling game unless you were a BG fan freaking out.

WMU led by 3 with 2:55 left when Daeqon Plowden took the team on his back.  

He hit a 3FG to tie the game.

BG got a stop and he cleared the board.

He was fouled and made both FTS, BG up 2 with 2:03 left.

The teams traded stops and then Plowden hit a layup with 1:08 left to go up 4.  

At this point, WMU had gone almost 2 minutes without scoring.  Fortunately for BG, that continued.

Gordon missed the front end of a 1-1 and then WMU missed 2 3FGs.  Curtis was fouled and he split his 2FTs to put BG up 5 with :41 left.  

WMU missed a 3FG and Plowden cleared the board and was fouled.  He split the pair and the lead was 6 with :31 left.  BG for a steal and Chandler Turner was fouled.  He missed both of his FTs with :19 left and WMU came down and hit a layup with :13 left.

BG got a stop, Turner was fouled again.  He missed the first one and then hit the second and BG led by 5 with :13 left.  Gordon got a steal and hit both of his FTs with :10 left and it was finally over.  BG was 5 of 9 from the line in the last minute and was blessed by the inability of WMU to make a shot.

BG's defense is very frustrating and has been all year.  Even after this game, BG remains last in the MAC in defense.  In this one, the stats were better than the eye test.  WMU had 1.04 points per possession, which is right on the MAC average.  (The MAC has the seventh highest offensive efficiency/7th lowest defensivefficiency in the country.)

BG meanwhile had 1.14 points per possession, which is their second best in a MAC game this year.

BG shot the ball well--58% on 2FGs and 42% on 3FGs, both winning numbers.  They were also good on the offensive boards.  They had way too many turnovers and while they did a good job getting to the line--incuding the fouling at the end of course--but made on 14 of 21.

WMU did not shoot well.  They were good on 2Gs--BG really struggles on keeping teams from the rim--but they made only 25$ from 3FG while trying 45% of their FGA s from 3FG.  That is tough to win.  They were better on turnovers, were good on the offensive boards but did not get to the line.

Plowden lead BG with a high quality game.  He scored 20, 6-8 from 2FG and 2-2 from 3FG.  He made 5-6 from the line and added 7 rebounds. Samari Curtis had 10 points on 3 of 5 and 1 of 4 shooting, 5 ewbounds, 4 assists and 1 turnover. Gordon had 10 on 1 of 1 and 2 of 2 shooting, 4 assists and 3 turnovers.

The only regulars missing were Metheny and Young.

BG got the win they needed.  Two home games this week and 2 victories needed this week.

On to Western Michigan

So next up is Western Michigan.  This is one BG needs.  Hopefully, having been "embarrassed" in the last game (their words), they will bounce back.  I remember an 18-point loss to a lousy Cleveland State in December, 2018, that prompted some soul searching for BG and a 10-game winning streak.  We will see if these guys have that in them.

WMU has had some rough times after a pretty decent 16-year run behind Steve Hawkins, which resulted in 2 NCAA trips.  They let him go and promoted Clayton Bates because the AD didn't think it was seemly to do a coaching search in the middle of the pandemic lockdown.  Bates has spent most of his career at WMU, even dating back to the staff before Hawkins.  He is 9-29 in his 1.5 seasons there.

They are not having a great year.  They are 4-13 overall, 3-12 in D1 games and 2-1 in non-D1 games.  They have lost their last 9 D1 games and all 6 of their MAC games.

On the other hand, Tuesday at the JAR they had a 10-point lead over the Zips with 2:40 left to play.  These are the same Zips from last night's "embarrassing" game at the Stroh.  Akron scored the last 11 points to pull the win out. They are capable of almost winning and you have to believe they are, therefore, capable of actually winning.  Their kenpom is 327...out of 358.

BG has won 4 of the last 5 against WMU, but lost at the Stroh last year to the Broncos, providing their 4-win opponent with their best win of the season.  They led the Falcons for over 39 minutes of the game.

Much like the Akron game, this will be a battle of tempos.  BG is 2nd in the MAC and WMU is 11th.  FWIW, the Akron game turned out to the Zips tempo.

The numbers on this one are hinky.  WMU is #11 in the MAC in offense and BG is #12 in the MAC in defense.  (MAC ONLY).

It is difficult to describe the level of play here.  WMU is 267th in the country in offense.  BG is #317 in defense... out of 358.

On paper, the difference should be that BG is #5 in offense and WMU is #10 on defense.  In other words, BG is terrible on defense but WMU is terrible on both offense and defense.

WMU's strongest offensive point is offensive rebounding.  They are poor shooters, last in turnovers and 11th in getting to the line, although they shoot well when they get there. They shoot well, our opponents shoot well.  They turn the ball over, our opponents don't turn the ball over.  At worst, it will be interesting.

They try a lot of 3FGs, but rank 9th shooting 2FGs and 3FGs.

When BG has the ball, the shooting is pretty evenly matched with the WMU defense.  Same with turnovers.  WMU is terrible on their defensive boards and BG has been pretty good, so that could help.  WMU keeps their opponents off the line and BG rarely gets to the line.  BG is #4 shooting the 3FG and #10 on 2FGs.

Their leading scorer is Lamar Norman, Jr.  He is a Duquesne transfer, where he made 25 starts in 3 seasons.  He is scoring 22 ppg on 44% on 2FG and 41# on 3FG.  He makes 79% of his FTs and averages 4.2 RPG.  Artis White is scoring 12.7 PPG mostly on 40% 3FG shooting.  He was out for much of the season but started the last 3 games.  Markeese Hastings is their top rebounder with 9.8 per game.  He is 6'7" and a transfer from Butler, where he played 8 games.