Duquesne Preview

So tomorrow night BG will take the court in Pittsburgh to play Duquesne.  

Duquesne plays in the A-10 conference, where they have had some decent teams but have failed to win the big prize.  In fact, their tournament drought is back to 1977, which is only 9 years off BG's.  They won the regular-season title in 1980 and 1981 and made the final four in 1940.

They are coached by Keith Dambrot.  No person living or dead has a better winning percentage over BG over so many games than Keith Dambrot.  During his years at Akron, they held a virtual stranglehold over the Falcons.  He left Akron, where he had been successful to go to the A-10, which is usually a multi-bid league.  He has gotten none of those bids. This is his 5th season and he is 68-51.

This is the 27th meeting between the two schools and BG has won 9.  They have won the last 4 against BG and 6 of the last 8.  BG last won in Pittsburgh in 2001.

They were 9-9 last year and they are picked by Blue Ribbon to be 9th in the A-10.  They lost 10 of their top 12 scorers from that team.  They lost 11 players overall, 8 of them to transfer.  So Dambrot went out and did what you do--worked the transfer wire to restock the team.

Their kenpom is 194 right now.  They have wins over Rider (256), Bradley (197) and American (307).  The losses are Hofstra (137) and Weber State (96)--both at home--and Northeastern (164) and Colorado (54), both neutral.  That equals one decent win and no bad losses, really.

They are scoring 1.01 points per possession, which is about average.  They are shooting the ball poorly, but don't turn it over and kill it on the offensive boards, which should be a worry after Chicago State feasted on offensive rebounds Sunday.  They get to the line OK and are making 73%.  Their shooting is mostly focused on 2FG and make only 46% from 2FG.

On defense, they allow 1.02 points per possession, which is below average.  They are #291 in defending the shot to date.  They allow 37% on 3FG and 54% on 2FG, both rankings in the 280s.  They make up for it a little by creating a lot of turnovers and not letting teams get to the line. They are not good on the defensive boards.

Like Dambrot's teams at Akron, scoring is spread across a number of players, four of who are averaging 12 PPG. 

They are lead by Kevin Easley Jr, a SO Chattanooga and TCU transfer who is 6'7".  He's scoring 12.9 PPG on 46% FG shooting and 46% 3FG shooting, 81% FT shooting and 6.6 RPG.  He was SoCon FR of the year.

Next is Amir "Primo" Spears at 12.7 PPG, but far less efficient, shooting 38% and 29% shooting.  Making 77% at the line and 3 APG, leading the team.  He's a 6'3" guy who played prep last year.

Leon Ayers III is scoring 12.4 PPG, also not efficient at 41% and 21% shooting.  He was a JUCO All-American at Henry Ford before going to Mercer.  He is a 6'5" G.

Then, there is Tre Williams, scoring 12.1 PPG.  He shoots 45% and 17%, which is obviously not great.  He has 6.7 RPG and has blocked almost 3 shots per game.  He's #55 in the country in block percentage.  He's a 6'7" transfer from Indiana State.

So, one thing is that Coach Huger is always saying that we get open looks, we just have to make them.  This would be the team to make them against.  On the road, this is a tough game.  Duquesne is a 3.5 point favorite, which is about right, I think.  It would be a nice win if BG is able to get this done, but it will take a better effort than we have seen to date.

Portal Updates

 So, it is that time of year.  We saw that Riley Keller entered the portal a few days ago.

Today there were two more.

One of them is Jack Wardzala, a D-lineman who was never listed on a national signing day.  He did play in the Murray State game.

The other is Gabriel Brown, an o-lineman from Grand Rapids who played in 9 games this year without making a start.

Best of luck to all three.

BG Beats Chicago State

The Falcon MBB team did what they were supposed to do Sunday...they easily beat a team that is not very good and should have been easily beaten.

It wasn't a great performance by BG, but it was never a game. BG led wire to wire.  As unbelievable as it sounds, it was 17-5 with 8 minutes left in the first half.  BG led by 10+ points for the last 25 minutes of the game, stretching it as high as 26.  With 9 minutes left the Cougars had it down to 15 on an 11-0 run, but BG was able to stall it and put the game away.  Final was 75-57.

It was certainly not a pretty offensive game.  Neither team shot well.  BG was 41% on 2FG and 32% from 3FG while Chicago State shot 34% on 2FG and 32% on 3FG...almost all of that in the second half.  The difference was that Chicago State turned the ball on a shocking percentage of their possessions.  That's the highest for a BG opponent since 2017.  BG was also 18 of 23 from the line and +12 on free throws.

Anything that the Cougars did get came from great offensive rebounding, but they still ended up at .75 possessions.  BG had .99 which is not great.

Joe Reece led BG with 18 on 5 of 9 shooting and 5 rebounds in only 25 minutes. That's a pretty good night.  Plowden had 17 on 5 of 8 shooting, plus 1 of 2 from 3FG, 6-7 at the line, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks.  Diggs had 10 on 2of 8 3FG shooting.  Matheney and Curtis each had 4 steals.

Myron Gordon was a DNP..

Next up is the Duquesne Dambrots.  Wednesday in Pittsburgh.

Past and Future Opponent Land--FINAL

 Tennessee (7-5):  Beat Vanderbilt

South Alabama (5-7) Lost in OT to Coastal Carolina

Murray State: (6-5):  Finsihed 6-5

Minnesota (8-4) Upset Wisconsin.  Unbelievable.

Kent (7-5) Beat Miami in OT, won East

Akron (2-10) Lost to UT

NIU (8-4) Lost to WMU

EMU (7-5) Lost to CMU

UB (4-8) Lost to BSU

Toledo (7-5): Beat Akron

Miami (6-6): Lost to Kent in OT

MAC vs. P5:  3-17 

MAC vs G5:  7-9

MAC vs. FCS:  10-1

East vs. West:  14-4, West

Chicago State Preview

Next up for MBB, the Chicago State Cougars.

This is one of the most challenged--and least successful--programs in college basketball.  Over the last five years, their top win total is 6 and their best kenpom is 335.  There are 358 teams in D1.  Last year, they lost their first 9 games before COVID and injuries forced them to cancel the remainder of the year. 

They are picked to finish last in the WAC.

They do have a new coach.  His name is Gerald Gillion.  They announced him as an elite recruiter, and he was an assistant at Samford, where he would have run across Myron Gordon.  He's actually an interesting hire and you'd think in Chicago you could compete given the HS talent there.  They did try that with the last coach--Lance Irvin--whose Father was a godfather of Chicago basketball.

 They returned only 3 players from last year's team.

They did open the season with two wins, over #312 St. Thomas and #325 SIU-Edwardsville, both at home.  They have since lost to Loyola (31), UCSB (92) and Pacific (161), all away.

They are not a great offensive team, averaging .9 points per possesions, which is #282 in the country.  What they do get is from the 3FG.  44% of their FGA are from 3FG and they are not bad, they make 34.7% which is above average.  They are, however, terrible on 2FG, turn the ball over a lot, don't rebound on offense, and don't get to the line and make only 60% when they do.

They are equally bad on defense, allowing 1.09 points per possession, which is #292 in the country.  They are good on the boards but they are among the 10% worst teams in defending the shot and they give up a lot of FTs and don't force turnovers.  Almost 47% of the FGAs against them have been 3FGs, which is a staggering number.

Tomorrow's game appears to set up to be a jump shooting contest.  They also allow 57% on 2FGs, which is terrible and should be an opportunity for BG, should they choose to attack the basket.

They have only one double-figure scorer.  He is a G named Brandon Betson who is playing at his first D1 college, but his third college in 3 years.  He was all-conference at those other schools and he's having a good year.  He is scoring 17 a game on 50% overall shooting and 45% from 3FG with 92% at the line.

They also have Bryce Johnson, an honest to god FR, who is scoring 9 PPG on 46% 3FG shooting.  Their leading rebounder is Coreyoun Rushin, a Chicago native who transferred from Idaho State.  He's 6'5" and a senior.

Overall, they have 6 FR and 8 transfers.

BG has a 98% chance of winning per kenpom and 95% from ESPN.  This was put on the schedule to be a win and BG will be looking to make it happen.  Anything less will be very disappointing.  The last time they beat a team with a kenpom better than BG's is right now was January, 2017 @Utah Valley.  Before that was 2014.

Sweet Victory

 

And the flag flies to end the season.  I'm happy for our guys, who have endured a lot and deserved to get a little bit of a reward.  I think it also provides us a little hope for the process we are undergoing, as we move into the "fill our holes" phase.

To be sure, OU is not a top team in our conference.  They are, however, a team in our conference.  They had the same record as us coming in and had beaten a couple teams we lost handily to.  At this point, beating anybody in the conference is at least notable.  We lost to Akron, for heaven's sake.

BG took the opening kickoff and ran 14 plays, only 2 of them passes but also they drive's key play--a 31 yard completion--converted a third down and a fourth down before stalling out inside the 5 for a FG.

The teams traded punts before OU went on an 86 yard drive to score a TD on the first play of the second quarter.  On the next play, BG was faced with a 4th and 1 on its own 37 and went for it and lost a yard.  Loeffler said after the game that he literally wanted to see if we could get a yard.  We could not.  And it happened another time, too.

So OU had a short field, they drove inside the BG 10 but the Falcon defense kept them out of the end zone and it was a 10-3 OU lead.

I think the next sequence is one of the key sequences of the game.  You could feel an old pattern emerging and it would have been easy to fall into it.  But BG did not, instead driving 70 yards on a 10 play drive with 4 plays over ten yards before McDonald and Osborne connected on a TD pass and it was 10-10.

OU came out and on their third play Deshawn Jones got BG a pick and the Falcons were in business again.  The drive ended up with Needham's only missed FG of the season, but it was all good from there on in.

The teams traded 3 and outs to end the half.

OU got the ball for the second half.  How many times has this gone wrong for us?  Not this time...OU went 3 and out.  BG drove to the OU 30 and pooch punted into the end zone.  On the next drive, OU got one first down but then BG forced them to punt.  The punter dropped the snap and BG was in business inside the OU 30, ending with a Nate Needham FG.  13-10 BG.

OU went 3 and out from a sack by Karl Brooks.

BG took the ball on the 50 and moved to the OU 1 for a 3rd down play.  We are in the 4th now.  BG could not convert on 3rd down or 4th down but on OU's first play they tackled Armani Rogers in the end zone for a safety and BG led 15-10 with 13 minutes left in the game.

BG took the free kick and drove 51 yards on 12 plays--converting 2 3rd downs--and ended with a Needham FG to go up 18-10 with 7 minutes left.  OU moved the ball on the next drive, including a 25-yard completion and they were at the BG 31.  A holding penalty set them back and they were forced to go for it on 4th and 12 when Trent Simms picked the ball off for the Falcons.

BG started on the OU 28 with 3:47 left.  They forced OU to use all their timeouts and ended up with a game clinching FG.  OU's last desperate drive ended with another Jones INT.

You start with the defense.  OU came in #8 in the MAC in scoring, but BG came in #12 in scoring defense.  Also, OU was a run-focused team and that had to be a worry.  Now, OU made an odd choice.  They usually have 62% runs, but it was actually 50/50 here and using their "passing" QB, Kurtis Rourke instead of a running QB that would have been suited to the conditions.

Still, BG held them to 10 points.  Created 3 turnovers and 2 sacks.  BG held them to 4.3 yards per carry, well below their average.  OU also completed only 50% of their passes and had only 8 yards per completion, 103 total passing yards.  The Bobcats had 10 first downs, 2 of 11 on 3rd down and 1 of 3 on 4th down.  It was a defensive effort to build on, as Brand and Ferguson return and other holes are filled.

On the offensive side, BG did not have a great game.  BG ran 80 plays, a good sign on its own.  They kept on schedule (more or less) and generated 21 first downs.  BG struggled to run the ball and missed some throws and failed to convert twice on 4th and 1 and ended up with one touchdown and four FGs and a safety to get to 21.

It was, however, good enough.  For all the problems with McDonald, he had time to throw and he missed a couple but he also made some really nice throws.  He was only sacked once.  He completed 24 of 37 and of his 24 completions, 14 were for a first down.  He also ran for at least one first down.

BG was 8 of 19 on 3rd down and had 37 minutes of possession, which is pretty good when run the ball for 2.2 yards per play and get only 4.4 yards per play overall. 

Again, not a great offensive performance, but good enough.  With OU's mistakes in their own territory, this could have been a blowout.

And how about Nate Needham?  Are you kidding me?  Decidedly average a year ago, he missed only one FG this year--it was in this game, when he said the wind quit blowing just as he kicked it--and his four FGs, three 39 or over, on a windy November day in the Doyt-wind-tunnel...well, that did as much to deliver the game as anything.  He's a great story.

More on the season wrap-up.  It promises to be a busy off season.  The portal will continue to roll---just today Riley Keller announced he was transferring--and BG has talked about using transfers to fill some gaps.  "It's time," Coach says.  And it is.

25 Questions That Signal The End

 

What is their body of work?

So, Frank Solich created a new paradigm for OU football, which had been historically poor.  He won the East four times, is the winningest coach in MAC history, but never won the MAC Championship.  He resigned in mid-July and was replaced by the OC and associate Head Coach Tim Albin.

They haven't had a great year.  They are 3-8, the same record as BG, and dropped their FCS game.  They did beat Akron, EMU and Miami...all teams BG decidedly did not beat.  They did lose to UB.  A couple of their coaches have announced their retirement and Albin will have the opportunity to put his stamp on the program soon.

OU has won the last 3 meetings over BG and BG won the three before that.  OU is a 6-point favorite.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

They have 27 which is a lot.

Who are their statistical leaders? (Top 20 Nationally)

None

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -4

Offense

How is their QB play?

So, you will remember Nathan Rourke, their excellent starting QB, who has graduated and now plays for the BC Lions.  They now use his brother Kurtis in a split with UNLV transfer Armani Rogers.  Kurtis throws most of the passes....he's OK, #7 in the MAC in pass efficiency.  Rogers is the #13 rusher in the MAC.

What is their scoring and yards per play (MAC Games only from here on in)

They are #8 in scoring and #6 in yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

This is how they were built.  They are #3 in yards per rush.  DeMontre Truggle is their lead back at 6.3 yards per carry.

Do they pass the ball?

They are 8th in pass efficiency.  They complete 66% of their passes, with 8 TDs and 2 INT and 12.2 yards per completion.  Normally, a lot of short passes and running after the catch.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 62% of their plays, which is how they are built.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

Teams that plays this style almost always do...they are 5th in the MAC.

Do they score in the red zone?

Not great, 4.84 points per trip.  They have 10 red zone FGs in 25 attempts.

Do they protect the quarterback?

Not great, sacks on 7% of attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are 5th in scoring defense and 8th in yards per play allowed.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are 6th in yards per carry allowed.

Can they be passed on?

They are #9 in pass efficiency defense.  They allow 68% completions (most in the MAC) and a 13:5 ratio.  

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are 6th in getting off the field.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 4.7 points per trip which is not bad.

Do they pressure the QB?

They get sacks on 5% of passing attempts, which is average.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 3rd in net punting.  No TDS, no blocks.

Punt Return?

They are 8th in punt returns.  No TD, no blocks.

Placekicking? 

He is not great.  15 of 22 with a 44 long.  3 misses under 40.  

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 27.  No TDs.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 29.  1 TD

Intangible Miscellany

The teams have the same record, but one is playing better than the other.  The first thing to watch for is if BG's offensive line has benefitted from a couple extra days off.  They appear to be exhausted and really struggling.  If that's the case, then it's going to be difficult to impossible for BG to win this game.  If they can get Stewart going than and protect McDonald--and OU isn't a great pass rushing team--than there might be a shot.  On the other side, BG has the worst defense in the MAC in conference play.  The Falcons got some stops against the Miami running game and they will need it again or else the offense might never get onto the field.  Neither team has anything but pride to play for.  It would be great to see us end the year on a high note, but it would take a sharp departure from the previous weeks.