Norfolk State Preview

So, BG has a chance to win their first D1 game tomorrow when they tangle with the Norfolk State Spartans.  Norfolk State is in the MEAC, the lowest rated conference.  They have been in the NCAA Tournament twice, once in 2012 when they upset Missouri as a #15 seed and then last year when they won a play-in and lost to Gonzaga in the first round.  They are picked to finish 2nd in the conference this year.

They have played BG three times.  BG won in 16 and 17 and then lost in December of 2019 at the Boardwalk Battle--playing without Justin Turner, BG played a very forgettable two games, losing to Norfolk and Quinnipiac.

The Spartans are 4-0.  That includes two non-D1 wins....one a non-NCAA win...and then wins against Tennessee State (320) and William & Mary (296).  Their Kenpom is 291.  ESPN power index gives BG a 77% chance to win and kenpom 85%.

They were 17-10 last year, finishing with a kenpom of 210, their best in 5 years.  They returned 2 starters from that team.

One of them is Joe Bryant, a 6'1" G who was pre-season all-MEAC. He's scoring 19.5 in D1 games, shoots 58% from 2FG and has yet to miss a FT.  He's also averaging 7 RPG and had 8 turnovers in the TN State game.

Caheim Brown, a 6'5" JUCO tranfer is scoring 13.5 PPG off  the bench, shooting 46% from 2FG.  Christian Ings, a 6'2" transfer from Rider went wild in their last game, scoring 31 on 10 of 13 shooting.  

They have tried a very small percentage of 3FGs--25% with the D1 average being 38%.  They made 57% of those shots--which is very good.  Defensively, they put a lot of pressure on the ball.  They have forced turnovers on 30% of their opponent's possession.  (Remember the competition. They forced 16 turnovers in the last game with BG).

They have played an up tempo of 72 possessions a game.

Look, BG is favored and should win this game.  For whatever reason, BG has never played well against the Spartans and, of course, lost the last one.  BG is off to a very poor start and will still need to get organized to win this one.  I have no idea about Matheny and Fields, but in any case I think Norfolk State will make this game competitive.  I'd love to see BG organized enough really to put someone away but I will be surprised to see it happen tomorrow.

Two More Falcons in the Portal

BG has two new football players in the portal.

The first is Chris Oliver.  He came to BG as a D-lineman, played a little in 2019.  Then he moved to o-line last year and has not played at all this year.  He is the second o-lineman who has not played to enter the portal recently.  Here is what I wrote about him when he committed.  He was in the Jinks/Loeffler transition class and is the 8th player from that class to transfer.

Aaron Washington is a LB in the portal.  He was in the the first full Loeffler class and is the 5th player from the class to move along.  He recorded no stats at BG...I think when Brice Brand goes down and you don't get onto the field, that makes you think.  Here's what I wrote when he committed.

Best of luck to both of these young men.

Miami Blows BG Out

Another game, another blowout.

After the start of the season--where we saw a team performing better than expected and better than last year--we knew it was succeeding over a low bar.  The hope was the team would continue to improve, because better than last year was a long way from where we needed to be.

We have not progressed any further and its possible we have regressed.  There was a crazy win over Buffalo, but in the UT and Miami games the Falcons were blown off the field.

Coach Loeffler said as much:

Disappointed. We got our tails kicked up front. We started out dropping a touchdown pass and getting a punt blocked. Our immaturity and our youth showed up today and it was disappointing. Our intensity, our attention to detail, all the things that we preach didn't show up at all today and I'm really disappointed. 

Our defense, I thought, did some good things at times, but I was extremely disappointed. We wouldn't even get lined up fast. I mean our urgency to align, do what we do, it was awful. 

Yeah, they got two good pass rushers. We know that, but they dominated the line of scrimmage and it's the second week in a row that we couldn't do anything. You get dominated at the line of scrimmage the way that we did these last two weeks, it's hard to do anything.”

To make the point, you can have patience with you but you want to make incremental progress.  I understand that guys need to get stronger in the off-season and that will help and this year can be a learning experience.  You'd like to have a little learning along the way.

BG got a 62-yard run from Stewart to score first.  The defense got a 3-and-out.  The offense dropped a wide-open TD pass, lost 5 yards on a pass to the flats and gave up a sack and then had a punt blocked.   Flash forward, with 5 minutes left in the third, it was 34-7 and BG made 5 first downs over that period of time.

BG finished with 258 yards on 65 plays.  Take away the Stewart run, and you have 196 on 64, with 3.1 yards per play.

McDonald was sacked on 8 of 36 dropbacks, that's 22%, an unbelievable rate.  There were 2 official hurries as well.  And there were 8 penalties for 50 yards, meaning they were pre-snap type penalties.

Meanwhile, Miami did what they do--which is score without making any yards.  They had 346 total yards of offense.  In addition to the blocked punt they also recovered a fumble and got good field position when BG intercepted a pass on 4th down, when they should have knocked it down.

There's not much to work with here.  Coach Loeffler said that next year is "time."  I'm sure our fans feels the same way.  We knew the line would be a struggle all year, but you'd like to see a little progress here and there.

One more game, in front of what promises to be parents and girlfriends on Black Friday.

OSU Blows BG Out

 OSU blew BG out last night...in a game that was literally never in question.  BG had 4 points scored with 9 minutes left in the first half.  From there, it was never interesting.  

BG shot better from 3FG (33%) though still not good.  They shot 42.5% from 2FG, which is terrible though not unusual for us...we shot that bad or worse 7 times last year.  We shot 8 FTs and made 3 and had 25% turnovers.

That all equaled .805 points per possession, BG's worst since a 2018 game at the Convo.  It is BG's third straight D1 game with offensive production below .9 points per possession.

Meanwhile, OSU scored at will.  They shot 63% on 2FG, 38% on 2FG and had 38% offensive rebounds. That was 1.235 points per possession, a number BG eclipsed only twice last season--one of them UM.

BG is just really out of sync.  Kaden Metheny did not play which made it just more difficult.  (Along with Fields and Matiss).  But, BG has guys who are just completely struggling and there doesn't seem to be much of an offensive plan when the Falcons have the ball.

Norfolk State comes to BG Friday.  This is a game they should win, but a team that will beat them if they don't get organized.

25 Questions from the Desk of President Harrison

1891 Miami team.  No mention of Florida.

What is their body of work?

Historically, Miami has been the most consistent power in the MAC.  That hit a speed bump one year after Big Ben and Terry Hoeppner left.  Over 12 of the next 13 seasons they had a non-winning record--unthinkable before that.  They flamed out two coaches before Chuck Martin came in.  Martin had 3 non-winning seasons, they went 8-6 with a MAC title in 2019, 2-1 last year and 5-5/4-2 this year.  In the MAC, they have beaten CMU, Akron, @BSU and UB, while losing to @EMU and @OU.  At 4-2, they are tied with Kent and the winner of their Black Friday matchup will take the East (almost for sure).

MU has won the last two in the series, but BG has won four of the last 7, including a Mike Jinks win.  Miami is a 17-point favorite.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

They have 13.  This is a very young team with a lot of FR in their depth chart.

Who are their statistical leaders? (Top 20 Nationally)

Jack Sorensen is #16 in TD Receptions, #6 in receiving yards

Matthew Salopek is #14 in solo tackles.

Ivan Pace is #15 in tackles

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +3. 

Mud Game

Offense

How is their QB play?

It is good.  Brett Gabbert has battled injuries this year and there were some games split between him and AJ Mayer, but Gabbert has had all the snaps over the last 2 games.  He has the top pass efficiency in the MAC. He completes 67% of his passes, at 14.4 points per completion, which is a great combo.  And a 13:1 TD/INT ratio, which is very good.  He is not a big threat to run but he can do it a little.

What is their scoring and yards per play (MAC Games only from here on in)

They are #9 in scoring and #1 in yards per play, you just never see that kind of spread.

Can they run the ball?

They are 7th rushing the ball based on yards per carry.  They have only 5 rushing TDs.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they lead the MAC in pass efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 49% of their overall plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They are 6th in the MAC.

Do they score in the red zone?

Not great, 3.9 points per trip.

Do they protect the quarterback?

Pretty good, sacks on 4.0% of attempts.

McGuffey.  As in Reader.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC in scoring defense and #2 in yards per play allowed.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They have the best run defense in the MAC, allowing 2.7 yards per carry.

Can they be passed on?

They are #8 in pass efficiency defense.  They allow 64% completions and a 12:3 ratio.  

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are 3rd in the MAC.

Do they defend in the red zone?

Yes.  They have only allowed 14 red zone trips, least by a lot.  4.5 points per trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

They are good.  They get sacks on 8% of opponent passing attempts. That' more than UT and you saw how that went.

Miami Alum

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 3rd in net punting.  They have been blocked twice.

Punt Return?

They are 5th in punt returns.  No TD, no blocks.

Placekicking? 

He is not great.  9 of 13 with a 49 long.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25.  No TDs.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 27.  No TDs.

Intangible Miscellany

Well, you always have the last game in your mind.  You have a better defense than Toledo had and they are very tough to run against and they rush the passer.  That's exactly the formula that got BG blown out last week.  This is also a short week.  They need to have some kind of idea how to move the ball, or this one will be a repeat of the last one.  The defense is missing key players and Miami throws effectively--also a warning sign.  BG is going to need one of those surprising performances in order to make this competitive.  One note:  Miami doesn't need this game at all.

OSU Preview

BG plays both ends of the continuum in Ohio basketball, moving from Ohio Wesleyan to Ohio State tomorrow in Columbus.

BG has played the Bucks six times and beaten them twice--1983 and 1994.   

They finished #8 and #11 the last two years in Kenpom and were the victim of a first-round upset last year in the NCAA Tourney (Oral Roberts).  They were picked to be #4 in the Big Ten this year, the top-ranked conference in college basketball.

OSU is 2-0 this year, but both wins were underwhelming given their #18 kenpom and #17 in the AP Poll.  They really should have lost to Akron, trailing with 6 seconds left and saved by a buzzer beat.  They next played Niagara (223)--it was a one-point game at halftime and the lead was down to 6 with a couple minutes left to play.

They brought four starters back from last year's team.  That team was a ridiculous offensive powerhouse, at #4 in the nation in offensive efficiency.  What's interesting is that those results came from being decent at all the factors, not great at any one.  They took really good care of the ball and got to the line.

In the meantime, they landed the top-ranked recruiting class in the country.

In Blue Ribbon, Holtmann says the defense needs to get better this year.  They were #82 last year, which isn't great for a team aiming to be elite.  They are playing better defense this year (after two games) but it is early in the schedule.  They have been easy to shoot 3FGs against--42%, so if that continues, and BG can start making a few, than we might have a shot. 

Offensively, they haven't shot a lot of 3FGs this year.  

Eric (EJ) Liddell is their top player.  He is a 6'7" JR  who was all-Big Ten last year.  He's off to a pretty dominating start, at 27 PPG, 56% shooting, 8 RPG and 7 blocked shots.  He's taken 20 FTs and only made 12.  He is the current leader for the Kenpom Player of the Year award.

Their other double figure scorer is Zed Key, a 6'8" So.  He's scoring 12 PPG on 67% shooting, 6 RPG,  and 2 Blocks per game.

Their leading assist man is Jamari Wheeler, a transfer from Penn State who all-defensive Big Ten the last two seasons.  He is averaging 3.5 APG and 1.5 steals.

Overall, they play an 8-man rotation.  They used different starting lineups in each of the first two games.

OSU is a 14.5 point favorite, which would be their biggest win of the season.  Kenpom has the Bucks at 93% chance to win.  There have been four upsets in that range this year so far--NIU's win at UW is the biggest upset this year to date, FWIW.  Given that BG is still trying to gel everything together, this would appear to be an uphill struggle, but the Bucks might be, too, and that's why we love sports. It would be the biggest upsets in the last 20 years for the Falcons.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Tennessee (5-5):  Blown out by Georgia

South Alabama (5-5) Lost big to App. State

Murray State: (5-5):  Beat SEMO

Minnesota (6-4) Lost to Iowa

Kent (5-5) Lost to CMU, East back in play

Akron (2-8) Lost close to WMU

NIU (7-3) Beat Ball State

EMU (6-4)) Lost to OU

UB (4-6) Lost to Miami

Toledo (5-5): Beat BG

Miami (5-5): Beat UB

Ohio (3-7):  Beat EMU

MAC vs. P5:  3-17 

MAC vs G5:  7-9

MAC vs. FCS:  10-1

East vs. West:  10-4, West