UT Drubs BG MBB

 Ugh.

And the 2021 season got worse for the BGSU Men.  Way worse.

In what should have been a marquee matchup, a battle royale, the Rockets kicked BG's ass on Saturday at the Stroh, winning by 18, their biggest win at BG since 1973.  It was never much of a contest.  

And there is much sadness in the Falcon nation.  And some anger, too.  Maybe more than some.

It started badly--BG missed its first 15 shots or something--and trailed 9-0 with 15 to go.  BG battled back, had the lead for a second and then had the deficit at 3 with 3:31 to go and the Rockets ended the half on an 11-2 run to lead by 12.  From there, the game was only a single-digit lead for a couple of possessions and ballooned as high as 22.  UT led for 37:42 of the game.  BG led for :46.

It was an ass-kicking.  It's just hard to describe how disappointing this is.

That's five of the last six, with four of the five losses by more than 10 points.  It's unbelievable how bad it has gotten.

Coach Huger is clear that BG's defense needs to improve.  And it does.  But, BG is failing on both ends of the court right now.

For reference, the MAC is averaging 1.06 points per possession, the third best offensive conference.  The D1 average is 1.02.

BG allowed UT 1.12 points per possession.  This was actually a significant improvement over some of the other losses.  It's still a losing number.  Over the past 3 years, BG is 4-9 at that level of defense.  They actually had four games last year where they shot their way out of that hole...including both Toledo games.  But it is a losing number.

UT just shredded the BG defense, in the second half in particular.  BG can't keep teams out of the lane and then there are kickouts and wide open 3FGs that the Rockets don't miss.  It felt a lot like the Wright State game...one team just doing whatever it wants against another team that can't seem to stop it.  BG also does not have anyone inside to protect the rim.  Of course, UT is playing without a true 5 as well.

BG scored .88 points per possession.  That's a losing number, too.  BG is 1-10 scoring .88 points per possession or less.  And I get that defense feeds offense.  Of the five losses in this streak, BG played presentable offense twice and terrible offense three times.

The struggles are on both ends of the floor.

It has come down to shooting.  BG is 10th in the MAC in shooting...that's 10th on the 3FG and 11th on the 2FG.  In this game, BG shot a season-high 46% of its field goals from 3FG.  And made 22%, the second lowest % of the season.  You saw it.  On many possessions, BG didn't even work the ball, they just made one pass and jacked up a 3FG.  UT, on the other hand, moves the ball beautifully.

Oh and the pace was BG friendly at 75 points per possession.  By which I mean friendly to what we should have been.  When you give up .24 points every possession there's no good pace.

Last note.  UT does not foul on defense.  And BG shot only 5 FTs, which has been their lifeline in some games.

It's just a disaster.

Individually, it's hard to even care.

Justin did not catch Stacey.  He has 5 points to go.   He shot 5 of 13 from 2fG and 0-5 from 3FG.  He did have 5 assists.

No player had a plus-rating for us.  Diggs was -1 and shot 5 of 11 from 3FG.  Josiah Fulcher had 12 points and 9 rebounds and Cam Young had 7 rebounds.

The worst thing is that no one seems to have a clue what's wrong with BG.  One of our players told the media that "It's confusing."

Were we overrated?  Apparently.  But it has to be more than that.  People are mentioning the Zeigler departure to me, but BG won 5 of 6 after he left.  It is possible that the team is missing Anthony Stacey, who (as I understand) served to kind of soften Coach Huger's harder edges.  When Stacey was injured back in 2018, the team went on a similar streak.

I don't know.  Even if this team was overrated, they should be way better than this. 

Here are the numbers.  BG is 4th right now, in a tie.  NIU is the spot we need to stay in front of.  Here's the problem...BG has NIU and WMU next week which is the last soft part of their schedule.  After that, five of our last 6 games are against teams we lost to--and in some cases handily--and the one exception is OU, who was without Preston when we beat them.

Hated Rocket Preview

 A couple weeks ago, tonight's game would have been one of the more anticipated games in recent memory.  The Blade was writing about how the home of mid-major basketball was northwest Ohio, etc.

Since then, BG has lost 3 of 4, some of them in rather bad fashion.  I think some of the luster is off the match up.  It remains a very big game for BG, who need a win really badly.  Their next two games are against WMU and NIU and more likely wins, but then their last six games are against four teams they have already lost to, UT and OU, who they beat.

This is a really good UT team.  They are 14-4 with a kenpom of 66.  Their losses are to Bradley (122), Xavier (50), Michigan (3) and Akron.  The Michigan loss was by 20 but the other three were by a total of 6 points.

They are an incredibly good 3 point shooting team.  They are #2 in the MAC and #16 in the country in 3FG%.

That doesn't tell the whole story.  Most of the top 3FG shooting teams don't actually take very many of them.  That makes sense if you think about it, because it means they are probably taking only very high quality shots.  Of the top 20 3FG shooting teams, only 8 take more than 40% of their shots from 3FG.

UT is one of them.  In fact, Toledo shoots 45% of their shots from 3FG, #36 in the nation.  So they are highly accurate in big numbers.

40% of their points come from 3FG, #16 in the nation.

Adding to the problem--BG has been awful defending the 3FG of late.  Ball State, Kent and Miami all shot over 45%.

BG is going to have to do a little better than that, but for a model,  I suspect you are going to see them try what they did with Kent, which was a 78 possession game where both teams ended up in the 90s;  UT actually plays at an average pace, typically.

Lastly, UT also leads the MAC in 2FG%.  They are #3 at not turning it over and #3 on the offensive baords.

UT is actually strong defensively as well.  They are #5 in the MAC.  They are #4 against the shot, #3 at forcing turnovers and #1 at keeping their opponents off the line.  Their only weakness is defensive rebounding, which they are last at.

This is just a complete Rocket team.  The position here has always been the Kowalcyk is a great coach and UT has been lucky to keep him as long as they have.  

They are led by Marreon Jackson, a no-doubt first-team All-MAC player.  He's scoring 17.7 PPG in MAC play, on 41% and 37% shooting.  He is 2nd in FT shooting...95% for all games.  He's 2nd in assists and 2nd in steals...#5 in assists when you factor in the minutes he plays.  This is just a really good player.  He has spent his entire career at UT.

Their 2nd leading scorer is the probable MAC Freshman of the year, Ryan Rollins.  He's a 6'4" G from Macomb, MI.  He's scoring 15.9 PPG on 60% shooting from 2FG and 42% from 3FG, which are just eye popping numbers.  He's the #17 most efficient scorer in the MAC, ahead of even Jackson.  He also leads the team with 5.7 RPG.

Stuart Littleson is also scoring 15 PPG.  Also very efficient, 64% from 2FG and 49% from 3FG.  Both top ten numbers...and the #2 most efficient scorer in the MAC.

JT Shumate is a transfer from Walsh who wasn't declared eligible until the middle of December.  He' s 6'7" and is scoring 12 PPG on 72% shooting from 2FG and 54% from 3FG...those are the best combined numbers in the MAC.

Setric Millner is also scoring 11 PPG.  A JUCO transfer, he is scoring 11PPG on 54% 2FG shooting.

BG is going to have to play their very best game to compete with the Rockets.  BG won both games last year...and there would be no better time for it.

A couple notes on the Kent loss.....

 A couple items of note...

• Caleb Fields was DNP due to an injury.  It is not a long-term injury and they hope he can play Saturday.
• Dylan Swingle did not play a single minute.  I have not heard anywhere that he is injured.
• We do appear to have some freshmen who can play.  Josiah Fulcher had 23 points in 22 minutes, making 6 of his 7 2FGs and 3 of his 6 3FGS.  And 2 of 3 at the line, 5 rebounds and 3 steals.  Pretty good in short minutes.  Or any minutes.
• Cam Young had 5 rebounds and a block in 12 minutes.
• Matheny has started every game.  He's having some FR struggles right now, but has also contributed at times.
• Chandler Turner played 12 minutes, second straight game with double-digit minutes, and 2 of the 3 in his entire career.  He was one of only two players with a + rating, at +6.  Jacob Washington was +5 and Fulcher +2.  Coach said Turner and Fulcher have earned more minutes and I think Chandler Turner has been under utilized a little bit.
• BG had its shooting back, but as I feared in the preview, was unable to overcome another porous defensive effort.

Another Loss for BG MBB

 Another game, another loss for the BG Falcons.  This loss was an improvement over the previous losses, but when you were picked to win the title, that is very small consolation.

You can feel it slipping away.  I think that's what is making people so nervous.  We felt that this was our best team since pre-WVU.  We have our best player since those days, to be sure.  And like it has so many times before...we just feel like somehow we're not going to have enough this year.  Again. And it will be wasted.

To be sure, you need to win 3 games in March to make this all forgotten.  If you finish in the top 8, you have the same chance everyone else has and you know the team has talent.  You'd think they are capable of winning those games.

Also, as a Twitter fan pointed out, we usually have a late-season collapse, so maybe it's better to have a mid-season collapse than a late-season one.  Obviously, no collapse would be preferable...but that hasn't seemed to be an option.  Most teams do go through a rough spot, to be fair.

Lot of things can happen too.  First, BG and UT haven't had to pause, but who knows, it could happen.  And those other teams are going to have to play a compact schedule in February, which won't be easy.

Having said that, here is where we are....sorted by the loss column.  Wins, losses and games remaining.

BG is right now tied for 6th, with a game in hand over Ohio and BSU and games remaining with both.

Here's the thing.  For the last five seasons, the regular-season champ has finished with 5 or fewer losses...and as low as 2.  There are two more games this year, so let's charitably think about winning at 14-6, which would require Toledo to go 5-5 coming home.  Which I doubt, but it could happen.  It would also require Akron to 5-4.  And Kent is a sleeping giant as they get to a better part of their schedule.

So if you were looking for a top seed, you're not there and you aren't that team right now.  As for making the tournament, and it's hard to imagine that we are talking that way, BG has a 2-loss lead and there do appear to be 4 bottom-dwellers (Bad year for Michigan).

And BG has 2 games has two games with Toledo left.

The natives are certainly getting restless and their focus is on Coach Huger.  To be fair, this isn't new...despite bringing this team to a competitive level we have not seen in decades, there have been fans that felt that the Coach isn't the guy to take us to the title for years and even that extending him wasn't a good idea after 2019.

I don't see it entirely that way, but today you'd admit the river is flowing in the wrong direction.

The problem is that you are in the zone where there is nowhere to hide.  Which is where you want to be.  But those first post-Jans/Orr years are past.

If you're looking for it, you can see issues.  There was Frye last year, Zeigler this year and then the one collapse in 18 that coincided with Anthony Stacey being injured and not with the team.  And the big meeting with the team after the Cleveland State debacle in 2019.

Incidentially, critics of our football and men's basketball programs are latched onto one similar issue:  unwillingness to use transfers to jolt the program.  Coach Huger has used JUCO transfers to effectively fill roles...Sierra, Uju, Diggs, Washington, Alcegaire.  There have not been any D1 transfers and BG had a scholarship open when the NCAA opened the gates.

But other teams have gone full on.  UB's championship teams were filled with JUCO players.  And yes, you have CMU and EMU with transfers and sucking, but you also have Kent, Akron and UT all with four transfers averaging 10 minutes per game.  Cristian Jackson, Littleson, Nuga, Bryan Trimble...

Look, we've also developed Plowden, Fields, Turner, Frye, Wiggins, into high level performers.  And reached a level of competitiveness we wished for for years.  It does feel like we stay two steps from the top of the ladder while teams climb around us but we're also not at the bottom of the ladder.

The only was is to win our way out.   But you can see the frustration...because it does seem like we have the players.

Late Breaking Game with Kent

 Welcome to COVIDball.

BG was minding their business after the cancellation of the NIU game and thinking about Toledo and BOOM, they are playing tomorrow against Kent.

Crazy year.  I agree with what the MAC is doing...or at least I get it.  If two teams are healthy and have an open date, than let's get the game in now before one or the other has virus issues, which have happened to about half the MAC teams this year.

So, Kent is up next, making it a very tough week for BG, playing two of the top teams in the MAC, probably the top 2 to date.

Kent is really good.  They are 7-4, but their losses are to #7 Virginia in OT, Toledo by 2, twice, and Akron by 4.  They are right on the edge of being very good.  The total of those MAC losses is dwarfed by any one of BG's.  They are 4-3 in the MAC, with wins over UB, OU, WMU and CMU, three teams BG has also beaten.

Their only home loss this year was to Toledo.

So, here is how things stack up.  BG has been struggling and they are now #7 in the MAC in offense.  Kent is #3.  Even given the last "horrendous" game on defense, BG is still #2 in the MAC and that's going to be the key matchup.  BG has got to get stops against these guys.  

The two teams play at exactly the same pace, 72 possessions per game

How does Kent get to just a strong offense.  It is interesting. They are just #6 in shooting, #7 in turnovers and #6 in Free throw rate.  They are #6 in the MAC in FT%, making 75%.  (The MAC is the 9th best FT shooting conference right now).  

What sets them apart is offensive rebounds.  They are #1 in the MAC and #9 in the country in offensive rebounds.  BG is going to need to be on the boards.  Their last three opponents have had good games on the offensive boards, and that's the key to Kent's offense and the key to getting stops.

They don't try that many 3FGs...9th most in the MAC.  They are 7th at making 3FGs and 4th at making 2FGs...BG is 2nd in the MAC defending the 2FG, so that should also be worth watching.

Kent does nothing great nor poorly on defense.  They are #6 against the shot, #9 at forcing turnovers, #5 on their defensive boards and #6 at keeping their opponents off the line.  They lead the MAC in blocked shot percentage.  Here, I honestly feel like BG has to start making some shots.  If they can clear the defensive boards, there should be some transition opportunities since Kent crashes the boards.

Individually, this program operates in a really interesting manner.  They are transfer central.  It's just amazing.

Their leading scorer is Danny Pippen, 3rd in the MAC with 20.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG, a double-double.  He's inflated a little by poor 3FG shooting.  He's tried half of his shots from 3FG range and makes 29%.  He does make 59% of his 2FGs.  He gets fouled a lot and makes 77% of his FTs.  He's also #1 in blocked shots in the MAC.

Mike Nuga is scoring 19.9 PPG. He played JUCO and at Portland State.  He's the most efficient offensive player in the MAC.  He makes 51% of his 2FGs and 43% of his 3FGs and he takes a lot.  He also makes 81% of his FTs.

Tervell Beck is a 6'7" JR and is in his second year at Kent, though it was UNLV before that.  He scored 15 against BG last year.  He's scoring 11PPG on 63% shooting and 5.4 PPG in 24 in minutes.  He also is over 80% at the line.

Justyn Hamilton, a 6'11" transfer from Temple is averaging 6.4 RPG.

Pippen, Beck, and Hamilton are #3,4,5 respectively in the MAC in offensive rebounding.

Overall, the Flashes have 6 players how have played basketball elsewhere.

This is a team with a strong inside game and I worry about the matchup because our best lineup is a smaller lineup.  BG's defense is going to be the key determinant.  We have even played a little zone this year, I wonder if we might see that.

And BG could really use a win heading to the Toledo game Saturday.

Blade on Portal

 Interesting story from The Blade on the transfer portal and Coach Loeffler's thoughts about it.

You should check it out.

A couple thoughts.

First, there's going to be a lot of disappointment for players in the portal.  If the numbers in the article are accurate and there are 2,500 players in the portal and possibly one vacancy per D1 team, then you have 90% of the players for whom there is no D1 slot.

Some teams have more available.  Still, the demand is not close to the supply.

Which brings Coach back to something he has talked about before, which is the issue of initial counters.  So long as there is a hard 25 counter limit, players are not going to have the freedom to move that was envisioned by the loosening of the transfer rules.  (For an explanation of this counter thing that is as good as I have seen, click here.)

This is why you see players transferring to DII schools.  You know, if you weren't playing I could see doing that but if you are playing, I don't get it.  But people get to make their own decisions.

Obviously, the weaknesses to the initial counter rule are especially difficult for a program like BG's, where people leaving the program as expected has been greatly exacerbated by people leaving before their time was up.  It is hard to catch up when you are limited to 25 a year.

Now, you could argue that the current rules favor teams that don't have recruiting classes hollowing out like BG did, and that's not anything that was forced on BG but rather the result of a couple poor coaching decisions...or a bad one and an awful one.  Decisions have consequences.

One idea is that you could replace people who left in the portal and have those not count against your...well...counters.  

Based on history, the NCAA will address this in 2028, or, possibly, never, if the P5 schools create a new organization for football.

The other news is kind of snuck into the story.  BG has 3 scholarships left and is planning to use them for people in the portal.  As you are all aware, Coach Loeffler has taken a strong stand against transfer and JUCO players in rebuilding the program.  I believe that in his late-season post-Akron rant press conference, he said that he needed to build a culture and once you did you could bring in a few transfers but until there was a culture it didn't make any sense to bring in individual players.

This is at best a slight change in philosophy.  There are still teams using way more transfers than BG is.  However, I do think it makes sense to get someone who can help us next year and the year after (he says they are looking for multi-year eligibility, not grad transfers) because there are a couple positions--WR in particular--where we desperately need numbers...or 2021 is shaping up to be another awful year.  (It will be difficult under any circumstances, I fear).

Quintin Morris Entering NFL Draft

 

80 Ball Out 🧡✌🏾 pic.twitter.com/LXENUx9d44

— Qdawg🐶 (@QuintinMorris_) January 25, 2021

No real surprise here, but Quintin Morris has announced he is leaving BGSU to attempt to play in the NFL.  He will play in the Senior Bowl, which is the premier showcase for the NFL Draft.

Nothing but the best for Quintin.  He played 4 years here and would under ordinary circumstances have been out of eligibility this year anyway.  COVID gave him the opportunity for one more year, but he is opting to go pro.  Just as a reminder, it's perfectly reasonable to be in college for four years and then be ready to move on with your life.  In fact, that's the whole idea.

Quintin is a Texan who was recruited by Coach Jinks in the first 100% Jinks class.  He is the first non-JUCO player in that class to complete normal eligibility.  He came as a WR but moved to TE under Coach Loeffler.  His hybrid ability is what made him effective and is a skill the NFL is looking for.

He was All-MAC twice...first-team this past season.  In fact, it's a sign of respect for his ability that he made the first-team, because he caught only 20 passes in BG's 5 games.  It was clearly noticed that he was hampered by being really the only target for a team with the lowest pass efficiency in the FBS.

He caught 125 passes and scored 13 TDS for BG, with 1,529 overall yards.

Which means that BG's top 3 WRs are not coming back, as of today.  We completed 54 passes in our 5 games, and those three guys represent 40 of them.

Just a dash of realism for the 2021 season, whatever it looks like.

Thanks to Quintin for being a Falcon.  He distinguished himself in orange and brown.  Best of luck to him.