MAC MBB Non-Conference Review

We've entered conference play and that means the MAC is done playing with the other boys in the other neighborhoods.

Let's see how it went.

The first big takeaway is that the MAC did not have any signature upsets.  No wins over P5 teams or even a team in the top 100, via kenpom.  Last year, the MAC had 4 wins in the top 100.  So for this year, here is how it shakes out.

1-25:  0-13
25-50:  0-4
51-100:  0-8
101-200:  18-27
201-351:  53-10

This is pretty much what you'd expect, I think.  The bottom one is a pretty good track record...beating teams you should beat.  I suspect you'd like to be closer to .500 in the 101-200 category, but who knows?  The MAC lost no games outside of D1.

As for the high and low points:

Biggest win is EMU against #101 Omaha.
Biggest away win is CMU @#139 Green Bay.
Worst loss is WMU to #344 UTEP.
Worst home loss is NIU to #249 Cal Poly

I think the scheduling is interesting.  One of the things you see when conferences upgrade their basketball is they stop playing games against the bigger conferences in return for home games and winnable games.  It is kind of a paradox.  You move your reputation up, but you never get to show anyone the big win.  This is partly an unfair game, since you never actually get to play any of those games at home.  This year, the MAC played only 2 games against the Big Ten.    A couple years ago it was 10.  (BG played no P5 games and, in fact, played only one major opponent and that was UC).

The MAC is the #13 ranked conference on kenpom.  #12 last year.  #11 the year before that.  #14 before that.

The story you might have missed....note the success of transfers in the MAC....

Marcus Keene....leads the nation in scoring with 30.1 PPG.  That 5 more than the #2 guy.  He's 5'9" and 175 pounds.  Youngstown State transfer.  Shooting 47% and 39%, which are really good for a G.  He's also averaging over 5 assists per game.

Jaaron Simmons is #3 in the nation in assists.  Transfer from Houston.

Steve Taylor is #2 in the nation in defensive rebounds.  (UT), transfer from Marquette

Isaiah Johnson #8 in FG%.

Rank so far this year (including 1 conference game, kenpom.com)

Akron (93)
OU (96)
EMU (97)
UT (114)
Kent (145)
UB (156)
NIU (175)
Ball State (178)
CMU (179)
BG (213)
WMU (232)
Miami (276)

Falcons play best game of year at JAR, lose

Yes, BG lost their 17th straight to the Akron Zips.  On the way, however, they played their best game of the season.  Their pre-conference season was pretty lackluster---there were some close losses and a couple decent wins, but overall a team that seemed to be about what they were projected to be, which would be a road team in the MAC tourney.

That's still probable.  But the Falcons did put together an effective performance on the court at Akron last night, and if that can be built on, then we might be seeing the start of a resurgence of Falcon men's basketball.

The final score was 89-84.  The game had a lot of streaks, but BG succeeded in never letting Akron get out of touch and therefore was able to keep the game as close as it was.  BG broke out to an 8-0 lead, but then Akron came back to lead 18-11.  BG had it back to 20-19 with about 8 minutes left in the first half and took a 31-30 lead with about 3 minutes left.  Akron finished the half only up 2.

The second half started with much of the same.  Four minutes in the game was tied.  The Zips went on a 13-2 run to go up by 11 points, but then BG went on an 11-1 run to get it back to 1 with about 9 minutes left.  The Zips then did what they do, which is to take advantage of 2 BG turnovers and get a little mini run to go up 7 with 6 minutes left.  They had the lead up to 10 with 4 minutes left, but the Falcons continued to battle.  Just inside 2 minutes, Matt Fox drilled a 3 to cut the lead to 4 and then Caldwell got a steal and BG had a chance to make it interesting.  Caldwell fired a transition 3 that didn't go down and from there Akron ground out the win.  BG never had the ball with a one-possession deficit in the last 2 minutes.

So, look.  Akron led for 32 minutes of the game and clearly is the better team.  But, it was BG's best performance to date and if that kind of thing can be strung together for more than one game, BG has a shot to poach some wins, starting Saturday.

The key thing above all else was the play of Demajeo Wiggins.  If he can continue to grow as a player--and he has shown growth--this is the type of player you can build on.  He had 21 points--shooting 10 of 17 from the field, which is 58%.  Coach said after the game that they challenge him to shoot 60%.  If he can get that kind of percentage and shot volume in the post, he changes our offense.  He has a really nice baby hook move using his body for space.  He also had 8 rebounds.

The second key was that BG's starters actually produced.  All were in double figures.  Denny was 16 on 6 of 10. Lillard had 16 on 5 of 7 and Ali had 16 on 6 of 9.  Alcegaire scored 10 on 4 of 7.  BG's freshmen were a little less productive, but Coach said they played hard with their minutes and he continues to be pleased with their progress.

From a team standpoint, the game was played at 71 possessions, which favors BG slightly.  Still, a lot of points were scored for a 71 possession game.  BG had 1.18 points per possession, their best offensive game of the year and it isn't really close.  Now, the problem is that Akron scored 1.25 points per possession.  BG only allowed more to UC.  The Zips are a really good offensive team, though, and well-coached.  Coach said BG had Johnson confused in the first half with double teams but the Zips adjusted better than BG and Johnson was able to pass the ball out of the post.

Here are the numbers for the BG.  With the exception of Norfolk State, this was BG's best shooting game of the year.  BG shot 54% overall.  They were weak on 3FGs, trying only 16 and making 4.  So, if you aren't going to be great on the 3FG, then you need to be good at your 2FG.  BG shot 64% from 2FG, which is the second-highest of the Huger era.

Now Akron shot even better.  That's the best any team has shot against us in the Huger era.  They shot 57% overall and 45% from 3.  However, they did a poor job taking care of the ball, and those extra possessions kept BG in the game.  As you can see, they had a big advantage on the boards and made 5 more FTs than BG did.  (The Falcons did convert 14 of 17 at the line).

So I guess if you want to look at this from the negative, BG had some issues playing defense.  Still, Akron is really good on offense.  Most of all, BG got a complete performance out of everyone on the floor, especially the starters.  If some of those players can string games together--especially Lillard, Ali and Denny--then I think the Falcons are at least competitive.  If Wiggins continues to grow, there are going to be open spaces on the floor.

BG to the JAR. Historic Trail of Tears.

Yeah, guys.  So, here's the opener.  We open with Akron.

It is hard to describe how dominant Akron has been over Bowling Green.  When the game tips off, it will have been 2,865 days since BG beat Akron, which was on March 1, 2009.  That's 16 straight wins.  Thing is, the 2009 win broke an 8-game losing streak.

I haven't thoroughly researched this, but I doubt if any team has a similar streak against any of our teams in the history of the school.  It is just ridiculous.

But there it is.

And Akron enters the game as, probably, the top team in the MAC.  They are the favorites to win this year and had the best pre-season.  They are 10-3, with a bad loss to Youngstown State in the opener, but the other losses are to Creighton and Gonzaga.  There's a nice home win over Marshall and no home losses.

This year's team is making its bones on offense.  With over 1.1 points per possession, they are the #43 best offense in D1.  On defense, they are slightly below average, but defending a BG team that is well below average on offense.  They play very slow...the #306 tempo is D1.  They succeed with huge efficiency, not with pace.

They do it the old-fashioned way.  When they project the ball in the direction of the basket, it has a strong tendency to go into the rim.  They are the #14 shooting team in the country.  They are two-dimensional.  The Zips take over half their FG attempts from 3FG (#6) and they making 38%, which is 58%.  However, they make 56% of their 2FGs, which is #17 in the country, which is a deadly combination.  They are just OK on turnovers, above average (#74) on offensive boards (which helps that 2FG%) and pretty good at getting to the line.

Defensively, Akron is average, which is plenty given how strong on offense they are.  They are average pretty much down the line, except for on the boards, where they are in the top 100.  In this case, though, that's not a great matchup for BG, since as you can see the Falcons are even less average on offense than Akron is on defense.

Nobody ever generates huge numbers for Dambrot because no one plays big minutes.  No Zip averages more than 28 minutes and 6 players average between 25 and 28 minutes.

Their leading scorer is 6'9" 290 giant Isaiah Johnson.  He scores 14.7 PPG on 65.8% FG shooting.  He also averages 6.8 RPG.  He's an absolute force.  (Also leads the team with 3.3 assists per game).

Antino Jacks is second in scoring at 12 PPG on 46%/42% shooting and 2.7 assists.  Noah Robotham scores 11.2 PPG on 45%/43% shooting.  Kwan Cheatham averages 6.4 RPG and Jimond Ivey scores 9.3 PPG on 53% shooting and 5.8 RPG.

So this is a tough opener.  Here's the deal.  You want to see how good you need to be?  It's on the other side of the court Tuesday.  That's how good we need to be.

Happy New Year to the Falcon Nation

Happy New Year to the Falcon Nation...this is a natural day for reflection and re-energizing.

Truthfully, nothing stops us from doing this every day, so maybe that's a good goal for 2017.  Let the success and failure of the past go...as St. Francis said, " Let us begin again for until now we have done nothing."

Falcon MBB End 2016 With Win

BG entered the 2nd half of the Norfolk State game with a 6 point lead and its normal starting line up on the court....Ali, Denny, Lillard, Alcegaire and Wiggins.  Things did not go well.  In 5:20, BG had been outscored 22-9 and now trailed by 7.  That's 22 points allowed in 5 minutes.

So, Coach Huger made a move he has made one other time.  He pulled his starters and put his freshmen in.  Specifically, Frye, Caldwell and Turner came in and Denny, Ali and Lillard came out.  As Coach Huger said, what BG got was energy out of the young guys and they are going to make mistakes, but you can't win without energy and effort.  "You gotta defend in order to play," he said.

None of the three older players were in the game much for the remainder of the game.  Huger:  "the underclassmen have to pick it up or you are going to see a lot more of the freshmen."

Well then.  I'd recommend taking a listen to the Huger presser.  It was pretty interesting.  He is very passionate.  "It drives me crazy," he said, when discussing his team's lack of defensive energy.  This is understandable, especially since, as he says, we are going to be the underdogs in every game we play for a while, including at Akron on Tuesday.

BG had the lead down to 1 in about 3 minutes, but did not finally tie the game until there were about 8 minutes left in the game.  At that point, BG was on an 18-5 run that left them up 10 with 3:16 left.  From there BG sailed home, leading by as much as 14 and finally locking up another game that they could expect to win but was in doubt into the second half.  BG won 86-77.

It was a 73 possession game.  BG had 1.18 points per possession, which is their best offensive game of the season.  Norfolk had 1.06 points per possession...and remember, this is a team that has struggled to score.

BG had their best shooting game of the year.  In fact, you'd have to go back to the SEMO game early last year for a D1 game where BG shot better.  BG shot 52% overall, but more importantly, 53% on 3FGs.  That's 8 of 14 from 3 FGs.  That's BG's second game over 50% from 3FG this year.  Anyway, the Falcons combined that with really solid ball handling to put together the strong offensive game.  Oh, well, one other thing.  BG shot a ridiculous amount of FTs.  They shot 40--their highest free throw rate since the '14 WKU game.  They made 70%, which is average and perfectly acceptable.  BG was +13 at the line.

On defense, the picture was not as good.  Norfolk State shot 47% from 3FG and 47% overall, which is still pretty good.  They also took good care of the ball and tried more 3s overall.

Neither team did any offensive rebounding.

BG's top overall player was probably Demajeo Wiggins, who had 15 points and 11 rebounds.  He shot 3 of 6 from the field and 9-10 from the line, continuing an already remarkable FT improvement.  Wes Alcegaire, who it should be noted was the one upperclassmen not included in the second half troubles, scored 17 points on 5/9 and 2 of 4 shooting to go with 6 rebounds.  Could have had more but was 5 of 10 from the line.

Rodrick Caldwell continued to improve, with 13 points, 4 assists and 0 turnovers in 20 minutes.  He shot 4 of 7.  Perhaps the biggest addition is Justin Turner, who had 10 on 3 of 6 shooting in 24 minutes.  He makes the team better with his presence and it is good to see him in there.

Lillard actually had 9 points on 4 of 5 shooting 4 assists and only 1 turnover in 19 minutes.

Coach said that the lineup isn't going to change for Akron.  But, playing time is going to need to be earned.  If nothing else, for the future of the program, it is good to see the young players thriving as the programs looks to build and get stronger.

One note.  Rasheed Worrell played only 10 minutes.  Don't know if he is healthy or not, but he made 28 starts last year and isn't seeing much playing time on a small team.

So, on to MAC play.  BG is 6-7.  They start @Akron, probably the toughest assignment in the MAC.

Sentinel With Coach Jinks--MUST READ

So, as you know, I have been critical of the job Coach Jinks did this year.  Here's a year-end piece in the Sentinel that is a show-stopper.  It is an interview with Coach and he's incredibly honest.  I'm impressed.  He concedes they jammed Air Raid down the team's throat.  He concedes they didn't evaluate talent well.  He concedes part of that is the young coaches he brought along.  He concedes they make adjustments too slowly as the season unfolded.  He even concedes that he should have been here instead of coaching Texas Tech in the bowl game.

I'm not going to steal the piece's thunder.  Head over and read it.  A highlight.

The midseason adjustments...."somebody should have known. It wouldn’t have made much of a difference, but we wouldn’t have gotten embarrassed by 70. And that’s where we could have lost them. If you go lose by 70 in two out of the first four weeks, we’re lucky to still be coaching here." (emphasis added).

I give Jinks props for this.  There is not one excuse in the story and there's total accountability.  I give him credit for that.  And I think he's right.  Most of the things he talks about are things that came up in other places, including my post-season review.  This was a challenging year made worse by Coach Jinks and his staff.

This took some courage and not just any coach would have been able to do it.  Read the story again, and try to imagine those words coming out of the mouth of Lane Kiffin, Tim Beckman, Rich Rodriguez...or Dino Babers, for that matter.  Cannot be done.

He concedes his assistants are young and we paid a price for it.  The Sentinel story cuts him a break by pointing out that Jinks only had 3 years of Big 12 contacts and that we can't hire Big 12 assistants because the lowest-paid assistant in that conference makes more than our highest-paid assistant.

That's fine and I'm sure it's true.  It is just another reason why Coach Jinks was a poor fit for an FBS head coaching job at this point in his career.  Hiring assistants is one of the key elements of success, and a better-travelled coach would have had more contacts and been better able to bring in a staff where they wouldn't think they were "lucky to still be coaching here" and we could have had a guy like that.

But that is done.  Jinks is our guy.  And he's a stand-up guy.  Whether he can win at this level or the curve is just too steep...that remains to be seen.  OK, we learned some lessons, but remember the competition improves every year too.  We have to improve more.

He is certainly not happy.  He isn't letting the staff have things easy during December.  Since "we are supposed to be playing ball right now," he has his staff working around the clock on all kinds of projects, just to remind them that we not playing in December and it is not acceptable.

The staff is going to return in full, according to the article.  This is not a surprise.  It isn't great news, but it isn't a surprise.  Problem is, they're not going to go from what is described in the article to fully-formed assistants in one year.  They should get better and maybe by a lot, but some of them could be 10 years from being at the level we need them to be.  The assistants on the other side of the field in our conference have that kind of experience and seasoning.  And that clearly matters.

Anyway, here comes 2017.  As I noted earlier, big recruiting month ahead.  This didn't have to be this way, but it is how it is now.  He's our coach....until he wins and leaves or loses and leaves.  Let's hope it is the former.

2016 to end with Norfolk State

So, look.  Norfolk State is another low-ranked team from a low-ranked conference.  But we saw before Christmas that BG didn't play very well and let Alabama A&M hang around in a game where that should not have happened.  And this Norfolk State team is probably better than Alabama A&M.  What remains to be seen is whether BG responds with a stronger performance after a game in which they were clearly frustrating their head coach...and then a long break to think about it.  Or not.

Norfolk has had some quality teams over the past few years.  In 2012 they made their first NCAA tourney appearance.  They beat Missouri in a 2/15 game before losing to Florida in the second round.

They were 17-17 last year, but have won 20 games in 3 of the last 5 years.  Also, in 3 of the last 5 years they have had an RPI under 200.

They were picked 3rd this year in the MEAC.  In common opponent land, they lost @Evansville by 19 and BG lost @Evansville by only 3.

They lost some big players, however, and aren't off to a great start.  They are 3-10 and they are 1-10 in D1 games.  Their kenpom is 310.

Looking at their stats, there are no surprises.  Teams that are 1-10 have 1-10 numbers.  They are #311 in scoring and #272 in defense.  They play at a below average tempo, so the overall effect of these numbers is muted a little.

The biggest issues for the Spartans on offense are shooting and rebounding.  That's just a really poor EFG% and offensive rebounding.  They are about average taking care of the ball.  They aren't great at getting to the line, but they are about average as FT shooters.  They are are not a 3FG driven team...they are #295 in % of the 3FGs taken and #263 in making them.  They making only 41% of their 2FGs, which is a disaster for a team that relies on them.

Here, they have the normal deadly combo of not creating turnovers and being easy to shoot against.  They allow 51% on 2FGs and 41% on 3FGs.  They are average on the offensive boards and a little worse than normal allowing teams to the line.  But remember, this team has played 3 top 100 teams, and BG has played none.

Scoring wise, the Spartans are a one-trick pony.  They have only one double-figure scorer, which is Jonathan Wade, a 6'4" R-JR G.  He was a JUCO player and only started twice last year.  This year, he's had some good success.  He is averaging 19.5 PPG on 47% shooting, 39% on 3FG and 5.8 RPG.  JR Zaynah Robinson is scoring 9.9 PPG, but on 36% shooting.  They also leads the team with 2.6 assists per game and a 3.5:1 A/T ratio.  Other than Wade, their leading rebounder is 6'8" So Alex Long, who also averages 5.8 RPG.  He's also blocked 20 shots in their 12 games, which is tops in the MEAC.

There is no way BG should lose this game or it should be close.  Having said that, the possibility certainly exists.  Over the last year and a half, the Falcons have had a worrisome tendency to not bring energy all the time.  Last year Coach Huger said he had to coach effort a lot.  That was attributed to the coaching changes, but it has persisted into this year, even by Coach Huger's admission.  This is something that he will need to figure out how to fix.  It will lead to the same results BG got last year in MAC play.  Right now, BG is looking pretty much like the team we were picked to be.