UTSA....Awkward

So, a few days ago, the University of Texas-San Antonio fired Larry Coker, the coach who founded their program.

Or he retired.  Anyway, the job is open.

What's awkward about that?  Just that Mike Jinks, our new football coach, is a legend in San Antonio.  The guy who once said he would never leave Texas.  The guy that fans back home are clamoring to get back to take over that team.  The guy whose whole staff (to date) is from Texas.

And the really awkward part is you wonder...if the UTSA and BGSU jobs had been open at the same time, which would he have taken?

And look, BGSU is a better job than UTSA for almost every coach, except possibly this one.  UTSA has upside potential in that state, for sure.  BG's last two coaches have struck it big and three out of the last four have moved on to very good jobs.

We might as well put the nightmare scenario on the table...if only to say that I don't think it is going to happen...and that is Jinks jilting (how is that for a headline) BG and moving back to take on the UTSA program.  I don't believe that will happen.  I have to believe Jinks is a bigger man than that.  But I don't believe the chance is zero, either.  It could happen.  Things like that have happened.

I would acquaint you with Dan Dakich, for example.

Anyway, let's keep our fingers crossed.  For as much as I have questioned the Jinks hire and (even more) his staff, it would be even worse to start over now.

Miami Preview

So, it begins.  The real season, as it were, where 12 teams play for one prize--a trip to the NCAA tournament.

The first opponent is Miami, a historically great MAC team that began to fall into hard times under the last Coles years and then have found the going rough under John Cooper.  They have won 13 games each of the last 2 years and Cooper is 35-59 in Oxford.

Even by those terms, the off-season was not kind.  He had two Australians--who would have been juniors--not return and lost a giant Moldovan post-man who was expected.

While they have seven seniors on the roster, they are still struggling. Miami is 6-7 and 5-7 in D1 games. They have a win over Northeastern at Millet, which is a quality win for sure. They also beat Wright State--a team that destroyed BG. And yeah, they lost to Xavier and Dayton, both top 15 teams, but they are only 3-2 against teams over 200, including home losses to Florida Atlantic and South Carolina State.

They are also 0-4 on the road.

Last year the teams split, each winning on the other's home floor.

The first thing to note about Miami is that they play very slow, much as they did in the Coles years.  They are going at 67 possessions per 40 minutes, which is the slowest in the MAC.  BG has played at a decent pace, so that will be the first battle.

As I noted in the review of BG for the pre-MAC season, BG has been playing good defense and struggling on offense.  Miami has been more or less struggling on both.  Their offense is just a little better than BG's and the defense is worse.  As you can see, they shoot about what BG allows, which is about 3.5% below the national average.  Defending the shot has been BG's strength, and they should be able to do it against Miami.  BG doesn't do much with turnovers and Miami takes slightly below average care of the ball.  The big battle will be on the boards.  BG has been very, very effective on the defensive boards and Miami is pretty good.  Finally, Miami does get to the line and they are very effective at hitting them---#21 in the country.

Flipping this around, the key element here is turnovers.  Miami is living on forcing turnovers.  They are just average against the shot, poor on the boards and they foul a lot. However, they are among the top 10 teams in the country at forcing turnovers--if the bulk number isn't that big, remember that they have a small number of overall possessions, so it is magnified.

BG's going to be tested with the ball.  The team has two seasoned PGs in Joseph and Ali, and yet has struggled against pressure in the past.

Finally, against a team that fouls this much, it wouldn't be a bad time to sink a few FTs.

They are led by Eric Washington.  You will remember him from last year.  He transferred in from Presbyterian and was a handful in the game in Oxford, with 16 and 6 assists.  This year, he is scoring 13.8 PPG on 45% shooting, which is good for a guard.  He hits almost 40% of his 3FGs and 85% of his free throws, with almost 5 assists per game.  His A/T is only 1.3, which is not especially good.

Geovannie McKnight, also a guard, is the only other double-figure scorer at 12.3 on 42% shooting.

Their leading rebounder is LJ Livingston, a 6'10" SR with 5 rebounds per game in 22 minutes along with a little over a block per game.  They also have 6'9" Serbian Jere Vucica, who is a graduate transfer from North Florida.  He scores 7 points in 14 minutes per game.  They also have 6'9" Logan McLane, so they do have size that the Falcons will have to contend with.

This is a depth-based team.  They play 11 players 10 minutes or more and only the two top-scoring guards play more than 30.

Here's the thing.  I don't think BG has any guaranteed wins on the schedule.  Given that, this is one you really need.

Falcon Pre-MAC Review

OK, wrapping up the pre-MAC reviews, we'll take a look at our own team.

Here's the thing that has to shade the overall discussion of analysing BG's pre-season performance.  BG played a soft schedule.  All the rankings we look at here are MAC rankings, and obviously everyone played a different schedule, so the key thing to know is that BG played the 9th strongest D1 schedule in the MAC.  So, the schedule should be working for us...in other words, our rankings might be lower against even an average schedule.

With that in mind....

BG was tied for 5th in tempo, which reflects a pretty good pace for a team without a bunch of offensive stars.  Those teams usually try to go slower.  They're not racing, but there is some pace to the play.

BG has been playing  very solid defense, and that's been the best part of their success.  They are 5th in the MAC in defensive efficiency.  They build that from the fundamentals up.  BG defends the shot and the boards well.  BG is 3rd in EFG defense and 5th in preventing offensive rebounds.  BG also keeps teams off the line, being 3rd in FT rate allowed.  The only area they are average is turnovers, but you can get away with that if you are good defending the shot.

Offense has been the issue.  BG is last in offensive efficiency.  This is one of those weird situations where the sum is less than the whole of its parts.  BG's offense should not be this bad.  They are 8th in EFG, 8th in turnovers, 12th in offensive rebounding and 5th in Free Throw Rate.  Those numbers should not add up to being last.  One factor is that while BG is 5th at getting to the line, they are 10th in FT shooting, so those FTs are not being converted to points.

Anyway, somehow in that mix, BG has struggled on offense, probably if nothing else just because they aren't above average in anything.

I think the lessons are pretty obvious.  When the season started, we were certainly worried about where BG would find scoring, and that's clearly been an issue and one that will typically get tougher in the conference season.  At the same time, BG has a strong defensive team and that is something you can build on.  If the Falcons can figure out who to grind more points out of a few of the players (Lillard and Alcegaire seem to have upside potential to me), then they can combine that with good defense and become tougher to beat.

They have an "opportunity" to start the year, hosting Miami and CMU at the Stroh.  Miami is not a strong team and CMU is certainly been disappointing.  The good side--the chance to win a couple games to get the ball rolling.  The bad side--you lose them both, or even one, and it looks like a long year from the beginning.

One last thing.  BG has 3 road wins.  Not against world-beating teams, but a young team finding its identity like the Falcons often cannot find wins on the road against anyone.  That's a positive to build on as well.

Kenpom projects BG to be 7-11 in MAC play.  I think a home tournament game is a good goal for this team....

MAC Individual stat check in

Having looked at each of the teams, here are how the individual statistical races are panning out.

A couple notes.

Nathan Boothe is on track to win MAC POY.  He is 2nd in scoring, 3rd in rebounds and 4th in assists, which is all pretty good.  That's not paced-based either.  Boothe is the most efficient player in the MAC as well, shooting 54%/41%/85%.

James Thompson IV would be the expected MAC FR of the Year at this point.  He's averaging a double-double.  Now, he's done playing non D1 teams, so that will have to continue to hold up, but at this point he's the clubhouse leader.

Lastly, OU always has a PG who gets assists.  Never fails.

1. WILLIAMS, Jonathan-UT 19.7
2. BOOTHE, Nathan-UT 18.2
3. HAYMOND, Tucker-WMU 17.8
4. RAYSON, Braylon-CMU 16.2
5. WILDER, Thomas-WMU 16.1

1. THOMPSON IV, James-EMU 10.9
2. CAMPBELL, Antonio-OHIO 9.3
3. BOOTHE, Nathan-UT 8.8
4. CALHOUN, Bo-BSU SR 8.4
5. MARIC, Marin-NIU 8.3

1. SIMMONS, Jaaron-OHIO 7.8
2. SIMMONS, Rayshawn-CMU 5.8
3. WASHINGTON, Eric-MIA 4.8
4. BOOTHE, Nathan-UT 4.6
5. BAKER, Travon-NIU 4.5

In case you are curious, here are where BG's players rank.  No one higher than 3rd, but some definite standouts.  Ish Ali has made a very nice impression in the rankings and has been the most productive of the new guys.  Zack Denny is also have a real nice year.

Rasheed Worrell, 3rd in FG%
Denny 4th, Parker 15th in DREB
Joseph 6th, Ali 9th in A/TO
Ali 7th in Assists

Denny 8th in rebounding

Worrell 11th in blocked shots
Denny 8th in 3FG%, 12 in 3FG made

Denny, Parker, 13th in Scoring
Ali 13th in FT%
Parker 13th in rebounding
Parker 14th in FG%
Denny and Joseph 14th in steals
Joseph 15th in assists

MBB Pre-MAC Round UP

For the pre-season, the MAC has been where it typically is on a national scale, which is right in the middle. Based on RPI, they are ranked 15th and the average MAC team has an RPI in the 170s, which is right in the middle of D1.

On the surface--overall record--all of the MAC teams have decent records.  Ten of the 12 teams are over .500 and the two that are not are 6-7.  Now, you dig a little bit deeper and I think some other things are starting to emerge.  The MAC played 25 games against non-D1 opposition...NIU and EMU played 4 and CMU played 3.  Five years ago--just as a comparison--the MAC played 14 games against non-D1 opponents.

My view is that everyone should be able to play 1.  After that, you are padding your schedule, and it isn't necessary.  The "media" at EMU were harping on this and Rob Murphy took them on, telling them that he does not have the budget to schedule better teams.  Of course, what he means is at home...in the past, teams like his have gone on the road to play tougher competition and get better and not chosen to play soft competition to pad the record.

The thing is, the games don't count against your RPI.  They are completely excluded...as if they never happened.  They also don't help your RPI, but I would guess the argument is that it is better than a tough road loss, which might be true and might not be true.  Anyway, the basic thing is that teams are attempting to create a better record.  I don't think home fans appreciate it, given the reaction I saw on twitter to the Oakland City game yesterday.

So, here is the MAC's record against teams with the following RPIs:

1-25  0-7
25-50 2-3
51-100 2-14
101-200 23-24
201-300 35-6
301-351  15-0
non-d1  25-0

It works out to an almost perfect bell curve.  And what your see is a low number of big upsets and really bad losses.

The best win in the MAC--RPI-wise--belongs to Ball State, with a win in Muncie against Valparaiso (39).  The second is the Akron win over UC-Santa Barbera (48).

Ball State also has the worst loss, at 257 to Bradley.  BG's loss to North Dakota comes in a close second at 255.

So here is the only caveat.  Pre-season records may not be what they appear to be.

Kent (RPI:49)

The Flashes are 9-4 and 8-4 against D1 teams.  However, all 4 of their losses were to top 50 teams.  Their best win was @New Jersey Tech (125).  They also won @Cleveland State.  They also have 5 wins over teams with RPI over 200.  So, the verdict here is no bad losses and no real quality wins.

EMU (101)

The Eagles are 8-5 and 4-5.  Now...they have lost to MSU and Louisville and top-100 Penn State and Oakland.  They lost Saturday to North Florida in Ypsi (RPI 132).  Their win profile is decent...with wins over Detroit and Vermont and a road win @Nebraska-Omaha.  They have only 1 win over a team with an RPI over 200.

Buffalo (102)

The Bulls are a surprise here at 7-6 and 6-6.  Of course, MAC POY Justin Moss was dismissed from the program over the summer.  They have lost to Iowa State, Duke and St, Joe's (all in the top 25 neighborhood), as well as decent losses @VCU and @ODU.  Their wins are over Vermont and Canisius and four more teams over 200.

Akron (117)

The Zips have an RPI of 117 but they would be my pick for the best team in the MAC right now.  They are 11-2 and 10-2 against D1 teams.  They also have a big win over UC-SB (neutral) and also beat Arkansas.  Their only losses are @Villanova and @Green Bay.  Their RPI is hampered by their four wins over teams with an RPI over 270.

Ohio (119)

OU is 9-3 and 8-3.  They are due to be a force again in MAC Basketball, which is their historic place.  They have losses to 3 top 100 teams--St. Bonaventure, Tulsa and Florida State.  They also have 4 wins over teams between 100-200, @Cleveland State, Florida Gulf Coast, Ark-Pine Bluff and Marshall.  This is a team without bad losses, but also no real quality wins, either.

NIU (123)

NIU is very interesting.  They have been bad for a very long time but shown patience with the coach and program.   They are 11-2, but 7-2 against D1 teams.  Their losses are @OSU and @Missouri, neither of which are bad.  They won @Idaho, which is a good win, as well as beating Wright State and South Dakota.  In addition to the non-D1 wins, they have 4 wins over teams with an RPI over 284.  Still a lot of questions to be answered with this team.

UT (200)

The Rockets were built to win last year, and this year they are inconclusive.   With the injury issues at WMU and CMU, however, they could still be the best team in the West.  They are 9-4 and 8-4.  Their losses are to Middle Tennesse (neutral), Oakland (home), @Detroit and @Loyola-Chicago, which is a pretty poor team.  Their best win is @Green Bay and they have 6 wins over teams with RPI over 230.

BG (237)

BG is 9-4 and 7-4.  BG played no teams with an RPI under 100.  On the plus side, BG has two good road wins...@Cleveland State and @Florida Gulf Coast.  The Flacons also have one of the MAC's worst losses (North Dakota, neutral floor), and five wins over teams with RPIs over 262, two of those over teams over 300.

Miami (242)

Miami is 6-7 and 5-7.  They have a win over Northeastern at Millet, which is a quality win for sure.  They also beat Wright State.  And yeah, they lost to Xavier and Dayton, both top 15 teams, but they are only 3-2 against teams over 200, including home losses to Florida Atlantic and South Carolina State.  This is a long drought for a historic program in the MAC and they might be getting better but they aren't climbing the standings.

WMU (252)

The Broncos are 6-7 and 4-7.  They were picked to finish 2nd in the West.  However, they lost their top player (Connor Tava) to a season-ending injury and the rest has been a struggle.  They also have a win over Northeastern, with quality losses to Vanderbilt and Mercer, and some less impressive losses (in declining impressiveness) to IPFW (at home), @James Madison, @DePaul, @UNC-Wilmington and Stephen F. Austin (neutral).  Three of their 4 D1 wins are over teams 290 or over.

Ball State (264)

Ball State is another typical power that has been struggling to come back after some very bad coaching moves.  They are 9-4 and 8-4.  Back in November, they picked up a huge win over Valpo, the best win for the MAC so far.  The rest of them are not so good.  They have 6 wins over teams with a 200+ RPI and a loss as well.

CMU (303)

This team is the surprise of the MAC.  Picked to win the conference, they have languished far below that.  Yes, Chris Fowler missed some games, but still, this was a surprise.  They are 7-6 overall and 4-6 against D1 competition.  In fact, they are the only MAC team without a win over a team with a 200 or lower RPI.  Their best win is over Howard, and three of their four wins are against teams with RPIs 322 or below.  Now, all their losses are against teams of RPIs 167 or below, so there are not terrible losses either.  For whatever it is worth, they had winnable neutral court games against Weber State and Milwaukee and lost both while Fowler is out.  I'd be surprised if CMU doesn't contend

Davis Webb Update

You will recall that very early on when Mike Jinks was hired that there were reports that Texas Tech QB Davis Webb would come to BG as a graduate transfer.  Beyond just Internet fodder, the reports actually surfaced in the mainstream media.  As of a couple days ago, other media outlets call the report premature.

To be sure, Webb is transferring.  The premature part was about BG.

It doesn't mean he won't come to BG and, to be clear, I have no inside information on this at all.  The young man does have options.  People are talking about him at West Virginia and Florida, for example.  So, again, he might be coming to BG and the report might have been right in the first place, but, for now, it appears to be an open question.

After Jake Ruddock, you have to believe that graduate transfer QBs are going to a very hot commodity moving forward.

Falcons Get Easy Win Over Oakland City University

BG won its final MAC tune-up, cruising past the Might Oaks of Oakland City University 87-56.  BG started pretty flat, and while the outcome of the game was never in doubt, BG had only a modest lead for much of it against a team that had been blown out in its previous D1 games.  BG was only up 8 with 2 minutes left in the first half (and OCU had the ball), but BG got the stop and finish on a 7-0 run to lead by 15 at the half.  The Oaks came out in the second half and cut the lead by to 11 five minutes into the half.

From there, BG then scored the next 19 points over 7 minutes to lead by 30 with about 9 minutes left.

The big lead let BG get some everybody into the lineup, with 13 players in the game and all of them scoring at least 1 point.

Zack Denny had a 15/10 double-double in 26 minutes.  Antwon Lillard had a good game, too, scoring 14 points on 6 of 7 shooting and he added 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 0 turnovers.  Ismail Ali also had 10 rebounds.

BG had a huge rebounding advantage, with a 50-31 differential.  BG made 54% of its 2FGs, which was a big difference in the game.

OCU has some very solid players and it isn't surprising they are undefeated in D2 games.  They were just over-matched on size against BG.  The Falcons were able to get the ball inside for baskets and, as noted, the rebounding was very one-sided.

So that is that.  BG finishes at 9-4 in the pre-season.  The true test begins Wednesday.

Two last things...there was a nice crowd for the game, by our current standards.  The official report was about 1,900, for a holiday game with an unknown opponent, that was pretty good.

The last thing...John Wagner of The Blade said on twitter that BG hadn't planned to play this game and had scheduled Texas-Rio Grande Valley...who are coached by former Falcon Dan Hipsher.  Unfortunately, they cancelled the game late, and BG had to take who it could get for this one.  It was nobody's first choice...sometimes you have to make do.  Bring on the RedHawks.