And all the laughter turned to sadness

With One Game Left... #MACtion pic.twitter.com/ER8UCi4iDZ
— Jeremy Guy (@JGuyMAC) March 4, 2015

Here's the thing.  As I said, it was coming down to the end and everybody had a chance to play their way into byes and titles and all of that.  But you had to win your way in.  And last night Kent State won their way in and beat BG on the Stroh Center floor.  This leaves BG out of the bye picture unless they win @Buffalo Friday...and the Bulls are scorching hot.  On the other hand, this is the MAC.

BG did not play badly.  Coach Jans said it and I would agree.  Kent State just made shots when they had to.  Kent has a winning tradition and every time BG had a chance to blow the lead to 7 or 8 one of those guards would drill a big shot.  That's what teams do that are hard to beat.

There were some issues at the end...where BG did not play well.  But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Kent State entered the game as a middle of the pack team shooting the 3FG.  That wasn't what happened last night.  Kent was 13 of 21 from beyond the arc for the game.  That's the highest percentage by far that BG has allowed, though, worringly, the second highest was against Buffalo.  It is also the largest number of 3FGs allowed, and the next highest was 10.

It is also Kent's best 3FG shooting night of the year and ties the most they have made. They made 13 against WMU...but on 31 attempts.

Without that, BG wins this game.  But, you have to give KSU credit, they have a big inside weapon and that opens up the outside and they took advantage.

Our guys fought hard and even with all that gaudy shooting really should have won the game, and that's what makes it an extra-heartbreaker.

One minute into the second half Kent was up by 11.  From there, BG went on a 14-2 run over 4 minutes and popped into the lead.  In fact, you can extend the run out...BG led 57-51 with 12 minutes left, making it a 21-4 run.

Here's where the heartbreak begins.  BG maintained the lead, most of the time in hard-fought, one possession scenarios.  It was an absolute possession-by-possession dogfight but Kent never got into the lead from 14:45 until....

So, with less than 4 minutes left BG again led by 6.  Kent nailed 3FGs on consecutive possessions and BG answered only with a 2FG, so the lead was down to 2.  BG then did what they needed to do...they got 2 stops inside 2 minutes and had the ball leading by 2 with 1 minute left to go.

You run clock, you make a basket, you are up by two possessions and the game is yours.  Place is rocking...it is right there.

Instead, just a crazy, sad, tragic thing happened.  Richaun Holmes had the ball just over the timeline, was under no pressure and he wanted to get it to Clarke.  He bounced the ball to him and Clarke was behind the timeline and it was a 100% unforced error, an over the back call that just stopped all the momentum and energy right in place.

Holmes and Clarke both played heroic games in their Senior Day game at the Stroh and without them there's no lead in the second half, so I'm not being critical.  It was just one of those things, but it was a catastrophe.

Kent came down and drained a 3FG (what else) to take their first lead (+1) in 14 minutes.  There were :46 left on the clock.  BG had the ball, Parker got to the paint but at a bad angle and missed a close shot.  Kent rebounded and BG fouled twice to get into the bonus.

With :13 Kent had a 1-1.  They missed the front end and then BG got a gift, a huge incredible break...Hall was called for a foul on the rebound of the FT and BG was shooting 2 FTs with :12 left in a 1 point game.

Holmes strode down to the line.  I don't think there was a person in the arena who didn't think he was going to hit both.  Up 1, BG would be one stop from victory.  Unfortunately, the officials went to the monitor and determined that it was Dickerson was fouled.  He is one of BG's worst FT shooters and, in the tragic vein of the entire game, missed both FTs.

BG fouled again.  Manley split the pair and BG called time out, down only 2 with :08 left.  They designed a play, popped Clarke behind a double screen, and he had an open look for a game winning 3 and it just didn't go in.  It was close, just didn't fall into the basket.  I totally support playing for the win, we executed the play, the good shooter had the ball, it just didn't fall into the basket.

This time, Kent hit both FTs and Holmes had a 3FG at the buzzer but it was over...81-80.

That's how it happens.  Kent made crazy 3FGs, but BG had them beaten for the entire second half, and failed to execute in the final minute of the game and that meant none of it mattered.  BG went from being 1 minute--even one possesson--from a bye to facing a very tough road to a bye.

It was a truly entertaining game and our guys gave a great effort.  The end reminded me a little of some of the struggles last season in the final minutes...just really sad to see it end that way, just one play from a huge victory...one of those defeats where you are just shocked and quiet for an hour afterwards.

More later.

Gut Punch on Senior Night

More tomorrow, for now just a very disappointing defeat at the Stroh tonight, as BG has become a team that cannot win at home.

Kent was not a good 3FG shooting team, but they were unstoppable from beyond the arc tonight.  Even with that, BG had the ball with 1 minute left and in possession of the ball.  Place is rocking...you just have to feel like BG has a very good shot at winning that game and all kinds of good things flow from that.  Instead, BG turned it over on a crazy, unforced error by two seniors who otherwise played like champions tonight.

Then, you get a gift at the end as Kent misses a 1-1 and then fouls on the rebound, giving BG 2 FTs down 1 with :13 left.  Make those and BG has the lead with one stop between it and victory.  Richaun Holmes strode to the line, only to see the officials go to the monitor and determine that it was Dickerson who was fouled.  He missed both FTs.  Even with that, BG had one more shot left, and down 2 Jehvon Clarke just rimmed out a long 3 that would have given BG the win.

Just an agonizing night with so many chances to win a game.  Crowd was not huge but it was rocking.  Just an absolute gut punch that probably will result in BG playing a game on Monday.

Just a punch right in the gut.

Kent arrives in biggest Men's game at Stroh

It is quite simply the biggest BGSU Men's Basketball game ever played at the Stroh.  I detailed all of the permutations yesterday.  Everything is still on the table but with a win, BG assures itself of a bye to Cleveland and will enter the last game of the season with a shot at the MAC title.  Oh, and by winning it will ensure there will not be another game at the Stroh this year....which means that it will for sure be the last time we will see Richaun Holmes, Anthony Henderson, Jehvon Clarke and Damarkeo Lyshe on the Stroh floor.

So for all those reasons, this is a very big game.  Emotions will be high and I hope there will be a big crowd.  Kent is good and will be a huge challenge.  This will be a big one.

Kent is 19-10 and 10-6 in the MAC.  After losing to BG in their opener, they won 6 straight and now are 4-5 over their last 9.  They've lost their last 2.  They swept UT and beat CMU.

BG won the first meeting at Kent in the MAC opener.  BG hit a buzzer beater to be down 9 at the half and then went on a 15-4 run to take the lead with about 12 minutes left.  Even then, Kent took the lead back and led by 8 again with 6 minutes left.  BG then went on a 10-1 over 2 minutes to take the lead on a Parker 3FG.  BG led the rest of the way, but it was another Parker 3FG inside a minute that gave BG a 4 point lead and led to the final sequence and the win.

College Basketball Stats

BG didn't play great defense, allowing 1.05 points per possession.  BG did well on the offensive end with 1..08 points per possession.  Over the shooting was even, but BG's ability to take better care of the ball while making 53% from 3FG and then 90% of its free throws was the difference.

College Basketball

Jimmy Hall had a huge game, scoring 25 points on 10 of 15 shooting to go with 7 rebounds.  Devereaux Manley had 13 points.  Chris Ortiz had 8 points and 10 rebounds.  For BG, Richaun Holmes had 20 points on 8 of 16 shooting, 4 assists and 5 rebounds.  Spencer Parker also scored 16.  UPDATE: I forgot until I read The Blade this morning that Derek Jackson did not play in the first meeting.

It has been a long time since we saw the Flashes.  Let's take a look at the stats.  As you can see, the big test will be--as it usually is--on the BG defense.  BG's offense and Kent's defense are pretty comparable.  Having said that, BG is going to have to start making some shots.  Even in the Miami win BG did not shot well, but won because Miami made a lot of turnovers.  As happy as we are, BG needs to get its shooting mojo back.

As you can see, Kent is slightly better than BG's defense on the first 3 measures...shooting, turnovers and offensive rebounds.  The biggest difference is Kent's ability to get to the FT line, and that will be a key element for the Falcons.

Speaking of shooting, as you can see, Kent has done a good job defending the shot, putting additional pressure on the Falcons.  The rest of the areas are pretty well balanced.  Kent is not great on their defensive boards so that's a chance for BG.

And yes, I know the chart says OU defense.  It is supposed to say Kent.

The two leading scorers from the first game are also Kent's two leading scorers.  Jimmy Hall, who missed 5 games during the conference season, is averaging 16.8 points per game on 57% shooting and 6.7 rebounds.  Manley scores 13 PPG but on 37% shooting and 35% from 3FG.  Kris Brewer scores 10 PPG on 35% shooting (also inefficient) and Khaliq Spicer averages 6.5 rebounds.  Derek Jackon leads the team with 3.2 assists per game.

One final element.  BG has lost 3 of its last 4 home games and you aren't going to close out a MAC season successfully doing that.  BG needs to turn that around tonight.

Senior Night.  A chance at a MAC title at best and a chance to lock down a bye...against a MAC power with a lot to play for.  Let's hope a full house.  It has all the elements.

My shot at MBB permutations...Work to be done for BG

WITH TWO GAMES LEFT: Divisional Championships, Byes, First Round Hosts, etc. All up for grabs! #MACtion #MACMadness pic.twitter.com/kQxkv8Op1d
— Jeremy Guy (@JGuyMAC) March 1, 2015

So, first a disclaimer.  I'm not going to do any permutations about winning the East.  I don't care about winning the East, it doesn't mean anything, and Dave Hackenberg is right, we should just get rid of the divisions for anything except football.  Essentially, they don't exist for basketball now.

Ok, one more disclaimer.  Let me know if I bolloxed this up.  It is possible.

This is relatively complicated because there are really 3 goals in play for BG:

• Winning the regular season championship.
• Winning a top two bye.
• Winning a top four bye.

As you can see, BG is tied with CMU and UT.  Two important things about that...first, BG wins the tiebreaker vs. CMU and not against UT, head to head.  Second, those teams play on Tuesday and therefore they cannot both win out.

Let's start thinking big.  If BG wins both games coming home, they are assured of a semi-final bye. Further, the only way two wins would not result in a MAC regular season title would be if UT won both of its games.  BG could win outright at 13 wins.

Now, let's starting thinking about the 1-1 scenarios, starting with a Kent win and a Buffalo loss.  At 12 wins, BG would be assured of a top four bye.

BG would win the regular season if it ended up in a two-way tie only with CMU, meaning UT would have to lose out and Buffalo would have to lose to OU.  The possibility does not exist for BG to have an outright title at 12 wins.

Now, the possibility exists of a 4-way tie at that point between BG, UT, CMU and Buffalo which yields the following record among the tied teams.

BG  1-3
UT 3-1 or 2-2
CMU 4-1 or 3-2
Buffalo  2-3

So a tiebreaker like that puts BG in 4th, regardless of what happens with UT and CMU.

It gets a lot more complicated with a 3-way tie.  For example, let's say Buffalo lost to OU, leaving you this:

BG 1-1
UT 2-1 or 1-2
CMU 2-1 or 1-2

Go Cats.  So far as I can tell, this is the only "1-1 Kent win scenario with a 3-way tie" that puts BG in the top 2.

BG:  0-3
Buffalo: 2-1
UT:  2-0

BG 1/4 final bye

BG:  1-2
Buffalo:  2-2
CMU: 2-1

BG 1/4 final bye

OK, so let's think about the 1-1 scenarios where BG loses to Kent but beats Buffalo.

First, and this is the headline...BG still is assured of a top 4 bye with one win, no matter who it comes against.  There is no way for 5 teams to get 12 wins.

There is also a shot of a 4 way tie here....this time like this:

BG:  2-2
KSU: 4-1
UT:  2-3 or 1-4
CMU: 2-2 or 1-3

So in this scenario, BG ends up with a top 2 bye.

In 3-ways:

BG:  1-2
KSU: 2-1
UT: 1-2

BG 1/4 final bye

BG:  1-1
KSU: 2-1
CMU: 0-2

BG 1/4 final bye

BG:  1-1
UT:  2-1 or 1-2
CMU: 2-1 or 1-2

BG 2nd.

Finally, let's look at the sad scenario.  Let's look at 2 losses.

BG could end up with a home playoff game under that scenario.  Buffalo, Kent, UT and CMU could all finish with 12 wins, putting BG 5th with 11.

There are a myriad of possibilities because you now introduce Akron and WMU back into the equation.  Obviously, BG wants Akron out of the tie breaker and would be happy to have WMU in.

The question is, could BG get a bye under any two-loss scenario.

The answer is yes.

If they ended up in a two-way 11-win tie with CMU.  A 3-way 11-win with WMU and CMU would also get BG a bye.  There may be others.

Here's the take away.  First, let's give the boys a big and loud crowd and let's beat Kent and assure ourselves of a bye.  Against all odds, let's pull for OU to win @Buffalo...hey, look, NIU scorched CMU...but not likely.  Anyway, if that happened BG is assured of a top-2 finish.  Let's root for CMU to beat UT as well.

It is certainly getting fun.

Falcons Answer Call

So after a bad week last week, losing 2 at home, BG had put itself in a position where it needed two road wins...one at OU and one at Miami against a team that beat them by 11 at the Stroh.  And they answered that call, which leaves them today in a 3-way tie for first place, one game short of 20 wins.

They answered another call last night.

BG led at halftime.  They came out of the locker room and played about as poorly as they have all season on the offensive side of the ball.  It was simply unbelievable...BG did not score AT ALL in the second half until 10:10 was left.  That is not a typo.  To their credit, they were defending decently, holding Miami to 14 points in the second half.  Even so, when Jehvon Clarke finally broke through, BG was down 8...but after a drought like that, you'd expect to lose most of the time.  BG was still at least within striking distance.

But things would have to change, and you have to give the Falcons credit.  As Coach said after the game, BG did not get down on themselves or each other, they kept digging, kept working.  And things did change.  After scoring 0 points in the first 10 minutes, BG scored 31 in the last 10 minutes, which is an incredible thing on its own.

Even though BG had broken the scoring cherry with 10 minutes left, they were still down 11 with 8:08 left.  Zack Denny, who has been having trouble getting shots for a few games, nailed a 3 to cut the lead to 8.  It was the start of a 15-3 run that put BG in the lead with 3:51---on another Denny 3-ball.

A minute or so later Miami had the lead by 1 and BG took it for the final time....on a Zack Denny 3.

BG was up 2 with 2 minutes left.  Eric Washington did what he does, which is get into the lane, but he was unable to get the ball down.  BG cleared the board, ran clock and then Clarke nailed a 2FG with :54 left, BG now up 4.  Clarke then got a steal and BG went to the line with :42 left and Miami never had the ball again with a chance to tie the game.  BG made 7 out of 10 FTs in the last minute.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Incredibly improbable, but a huge victory for the Falcons.  I am sure they had a great bus ride home and they deserved it.  Obviously, you don't want to go 10 minutes without scoring, but I doubt if too many teams are down 11 on the road and rally to win in 8 minutes.

Miami turnovers were the key part of the game, overall.  Miami outshot BG 48% to 41%, with neither team effective from beyond the arc.  (Denny's 3 daggers in the second half were BG's only 3FGs for the entire game).  Much was made about BG's difficult dealing with Miami pressure in the first game...BG actually only turned the ball over 12 times in that game--the effect of the pressure showed up more in poor shooting.

Anyway, in Oxford last night BG turned the ball over only 10 times, which is 16% and a very solid number.  Meanwhile, Miami turned it over 17 times, which was 27.9% of their total possessions, which is a tough number to win with.  (It is also the highest turnover percentage for any BG opponent this season).

Neither team did much on the offensive boards...BG seemed focused on getting back to keep the RedHawks out of transition.  The other difference was FTs...BG hit 83% of its FT attempts, including 7 in the last minute and had a +11 advantage at the line.

College Basketball

Individually, BG was led by Zack Denny with 17 points.  He shot 5 of 11 and 3 of 5 and added 5 rebounds.  Holmes had 15 points and 8 rebounds, shooting 4 of 8 from the field.

One guy who deserves some mention is Josh Gomez.  He's been virtually forgotten but I give him credit.  He has improved and is now playing a role on the team.  He played 9 minutes with 6 points. Those 9 minutes are really important because they give Holmes an opportunity to get a little rest.

The other individual thing is that BG seems to be struggling at PG.  Most of the season BG has alternated Joseph and Austin at the PG, but yesterday BG actually went to far as to play Clarke at the point.  Joseph played 23 minutes, shot 1 of 6 and had only 1 assist.  Austin played only 5 minutes.

We head to the final week.  I'll have more on the permutations coming up tomorrow, but BG has two very tough games....Kent and @Buffalo.  A win over Kent and things get a lot easier...let's go to the game people.

Big, Big Game...Miami Part II

BG gets its rematch against Miami today.  As detailed in yesterday's post, this is a huge game.  BG continues to have a legit shot at getting one of the 4 byes--a significant accomplishment given the expectations for this year.  But, this one is very worrisome.

Yes, Miami is a lower-ranked team in our conference.  However, they have now won 4 in a row--the last 3 over Akron, Kent and BG--and it appears that the John Cooper program might be kicking in down there.  This is a dangerous time to be playing them and a dangerous time to be playing them in Oxford.

Miami is now 7-8 in MAC play.  Furthermore, the game at BG was not especially close by the end.   The Falcons need to bring a significant effort out there to get this game won.

Miami put a lot of pressure on BG and switched defenses a lot.  There was full court pressure and half court trap.  BG was driven right out of its offense and struggled to make shots, especially in the 2nd half when BG shot 32%, missed all 11 3FGs and scored 23 points.

BG has had an extra day to look at this and they are going to have to get something figured out.  Coach Jans is a good Coach and I think he will prepare his team to handle what Miami will want to do.

The other thing Miami did effectively was create dribble penetration.  Late in the game, they would run the clock down and then Eric Washington would drive into the key, without benefit of a screen.  Obviously that's a killer when you are trying to catch up.

Miami beat BG on both ends of the floor.  Miami scored 1.08 points per possession and BG scored .9.  Miami shot 42% and 33%...though they tried only 9 3FGs.  BG shot 36% and 23%.  The other stats were pretty even, and FTAs were the same both ways, but Miami made 20 out of 21 and BG made 14 out of 20.

College Basketball

This was a game where BG had trouble getting anyone going except Richaun Holmes.  He had 21 points, 7 of 9 shooting, 12 rebounds and 5 blocks.  As we noted, the rest of BG's team shot 11 of 41 and 3 of 22 shooting.

For Miami, the leading scorer was Australian Jaryd Eustace, who had 14 points in 11 freaking minutes.  Geovanie McKnight, who had an inefficient 13 on 4 of 14 shooting and 10 rebounds.  Will Sullivan had 11 points on 6 of 6 FT shooting and 6 rebounds.  Eric Washington looked like a player late, but he was 2 of 9 shooting with 4 assists over 5 turnovers.

The last time BG competed at this level was 2009, when BG finished with a regular season title.  That was the year the Falcons wrenched a win out at the JAR to set the whole thing in motion.  The next 3 are big, starting with this one.  It's going to be a test.

Football Schedule is out...BG responds on five home games

And here it is....

Best schedule in the MAC, and it's not even close. 3 P5 schools, all on the road. No FCS teams. COMPETE & WIN. pic.twitter.com/wVeecp8hht
— Tom Kaufman (@CoachTomKaufman) February 27, 2015

A few thoughts....

First, it is a tough schedule.  Coach Babers said somewhere--in a way only he can--that you know you have to walk home from school and these guys are waiting for you, but you still gotta do it.

There are no breaks in the non-conference schedule.  You have Tennessee, Maryland (both "away"), a tough Memphis team at the Doyt and then @Purdue, where we are undefeated!  Anyway, four very tough games to open the slate.  There are no FCS games on our schedule, which we knew.

In the MAC, BG has the same cross-over games...UT, WMU and Ball State.  Two of those are away this year, with UT as the last home game and Senior Night.  Also, BG finishes with all MAC West games again.

In terms of home games, I'd say people will not be thrilled.  First, we play only 5 home dates.  Second, only 3 Saturdays.  To me that's the big one, but what can you do?  That ship has long since sailed.  Memphis and Toledo are good opponents, Ohio is a traditional review, Akron might be decent and UMass is...UMass.

BG does not play Miami again this year.

So, that's the deal.  Mark your calendars now!  BG will really be tested this year...and with all the normal anxieties we have, especially on defense, we are going to have no place to hide.

UPDATE:

As you can see below, the program responded to the 5 home game issue...

In regard to questions about a 5-game home schedule in 2015: We had every intention of a 6-game home slate until S. Car. St backed out (1/2)
— BG Football (@BG_Football) February 28, 2015

Leaving us w/ opening to fill just 9 mos. prior to season. Given limited options, playing at Tenn. was a positive outcome for program in '15
— BG Football (@BG_Football) February 28, 2015