Chips Preview

So, off a loss, BG heads to the road for 2 straight.  This is clearly a challenging time on the schedule.  To add to it, they are playing another surprise team, the CMU Chippewas.  They are 15-4, with 3 non D1 wins and 5-3 in the MAC.  They are 4-0 at home, with wins over Miami, Buffalo, EMU and Ohio, and a road win over UT.  They have also lost @Akron, @Kent and @Ball State.  With BG and WMU at home over the next 2 games, they are facing an important part of their schedule as well.

They are the best offensive team in the MAC.  They are scoring 1.11 point per possession in MAC play.  They are at only 65 possessions, which is somewhere in the middle of the pack of the MAC, so it isn't on high octane.  They are 8th in defensive efficiency.  Therefore, as you can see below, we have a contrast of two styles.  BG is a defensively-oriented team and CMU is an offensively-oriented team.  As those styles clash, we will see who prevails.

CMU combines a potent mix in achieving that offensive efficiency:  they are very effective shooting the ball and they rarely turn it over.  They are 2nd in the MAC in FG%, 1st in 3FG and 1st in 3FG%.  That's potent, but they also first in not turning the ball over.  So, bunches of shots and they are good at making them.  They are last in offensive rebounding and in the middle pack at getting to the line, but those can't ruin the shooting and ball possession they have.  This will be a huge challenge for the BG defense.

Teams are rarely good on both sides of the court, and CMU is not either.  They are 10th in allowing FG% and 10th in 3FG% and they are second to last in allowing teams to shoot against them.  They don't force a ton of turnovers, are not great on the offensive boards and allow a good amount of free throws.  The question here is how well the Falcons do at taking advantage of these weaknesses.  BG is clearly not a high octane offensive squad and even with CMU's soft defense, the Falcons need to be ready to take advantage.  Some shooting from the guard position surely would help.

Individually, they are led by Chris Fowler, the JR PG who is the best player no one has heard of.  He's scoring 14.4 per game on 52% and 37% shooting, very good numbers for a guard.  He also has 6.1 assists per game (2nd in MAC) over 2.3 turnovers.  John Simons  (6'8") is scoring 11.5 on 51% and 45% which makes him the 5th best shooter in the MAC.  He also leads the team with 6.2 RPG.

Braylon Rayson, a 5'9" SO G is scoring 10.4 PPG in only 21 minutes.  He's a little less efficent, at 42% and 36%.  Josh Kozinski is also a dangerous 3FG shooter.

This should be a very interesting game.  BG is going to need to guard very, very well, especially against Simon, who might be the MAC's best inside-out threat.  This will be a clash of styles, with CMU clearly favored on home court, where they have won all their MAC games.  On the plus side, BG has responded very well to losing during the Jans "era" so perhaps that can happen again.  My fear is that BG is running out of gas a little--something we have seen from our teams in past years.  They are running a much shorter bench, and just seem to be losing a little zip.  One last important factor.  BG needs Dickerson and Holmes to avoid foul trouble.  CMU is much less of an inside team (compared to Akron, for example) so maybe that can be done.

Big News! ND Safety Eilar Hardy will take Year 5 at BG

I will be headed to Bowling Green to play with my brothers @PrimeTimeLewis & @marc_mention4 lets put on for the 6⃣. Blessed opportunity ✊🙏
— HardyNextDoor (@Ice_4xIcey) February 3, 2015

In perhaps the biggest recruiting news that has a chance to impact next season, Notre Dame S Eilar Hardy is transferring to BG.  He will do so as a graduate and he will be eligible immediately and at a position of need for the Falcons.

Hardy went to Pickerington HS where he played with Roger Lewis and Marcus Milton.

He was a highly decorated player at Pickerington Central HS.  He was first-team All-State and #209 out of The Rivals 250 nationally.  He went to Notre Dame, where he did not play his freshman and sophomore years and then played 10 games with 2 starts his junior season with 26 total tackles.

Before the 2014 season, he was one of five players held out of fall practice because of academic dishonesty issues.  He was eventually admitted back to the team in mid-October, reinstated by the NCAS and played in 5 games with 9 tackles.  For the record, he was the only one of the five to return and play in 2014.

He was granted his release in late January and will graduate in May from Notre Dame.  He considered Miami and UConn as well as BG, and chose the Falcons over Miami, where former Notre Dame assistant Chuck Martin is coaching.

No idea what the story was with the academic issues.  He was reinstated before everyone else and he is graduating from Notre Dame, so those two things should mean something.  On the field, it is hard to know what we will get...out of HS we would have taken him no questions asked (obviously) and if even part of those skills still exist he is likely to be no less than competition to our returning safeties with the potential for more.

Welcome to the Falcons, Eilar.

Chris Jones Super Bowl Champion

And there you have Falcon Chris Jones, now and forever a Super Bowl Champion.

Much pride here.  Chris is a true warrior for our team.  He committed under one coach and they stayed under another.  He played through some very dark days as a Falcon and left one year before the team reached a MAC title.  He was MAC Defensive Player of the Year his senior year.  Drafted by Houston.  Cut.  Signed by Tampa Bay.  Cut after one week.  Signed by New England.  Two years later?  See above.

He's a Falcon Forever and our admiration extends beyond his play at BG to his perseverance in the NFL and his ultimate success.  He's not the biggest or the fastest, but he's all football player and he found his way to a franchise where they get that.

By my count, he's the fourth Falcon to win a Super Bowl.  That would include Phil Villipiano, Charlie Williams, Diryal Briggs and Jones.  If there are others, hit the comments or twitter and I'll get it fixed.

Ay Ziggy Zoomba, Chris Jones.  You're a Champion.

MAC Standings/Home Game Analysis

Here are the MAC standings as they look this morning.  The MAC's tournament is division-agnostic, so this is the look that matters for tournament seeding.  I haven't done anything with tiebreakers just put the teams with most home games left over the teams that have fewer.  One thing to note is that all the teams that the three teams that have played six home games are in the top 6 and the ones that have played four are in the bottom six.  Especially WMU still looms as a threat given this, given that they have 2 more home games left than BG and UT.  Right now, BG is competitive for a bye and has a two-game lead over the last home spot.

Long way to go (10 games), but a good time to starting watching.

And the beat Zips on...

And that's what long losing streaks are made of.

Last night, BG controlled play for most of the game.  More than once they had leads over 10 points...and with one minute left they led by 4.  Beyond that, they had 3,800 fans in the house--3rd largest for MBB in Stroh history--and it was rocking when it came down the stretch.

Akron is who they are because they know how to win.  They stayed close and stole the game.  They are used to winning and they expect to win and they execute at their highest level when winning is on the line, even in front of a howling, hostile crowd.

That is where we want to get.

Our guys played hard and for much of the game played really well.  They were a couple of plays short and failed to execute effectively in the last minute or so and that cost us the game.  BG has to learn from that and get better.  We are light years from where we were last year, but closing out Akron in a game like this is on the to-do list.

BG had plenty of opportnity to win the game.  With about 1:30 left, BG had a 2-point lead and the ball.  Obviously, that's a dagger situation, but the Falcons turned the ball over.  Akron rushed a 3FG up and BG had the ball back.  Jovon Austin took advantage of Forsythe having fouled out and drove to the rim for a basket.

BG was now up 4 with 1:04 left.  From here on in, things were less pretty.  Noah Robotham found himself wide open and drilled a 3 to make it a 1 point lead with :50.  Akron had been applying full court pressure for most of the game and BG struggled with it.  Obviously, they kept it on in this situation.  BG got the ball in to Henderson but he was immediately trapped and had to call time out.

Even out of the time out, BG struggled with the pressure.  A 10-second call was looming and Zack Denny was on the sideline and he tried to pass the ball straight up the court and Akron anticipated the pass and stole it.  That was probably the single biggest play of the game.  If BG gets up court and even just eats clock it is a different game, and if they score obviously everything is different.

Instead, Akron had the ball.  Off a time out, BG again failed to defend Robotham and he drove to the basket for a layup to but Akron up 1 with :25 left.  Operating without a time out, Austin came down the court and was driving for the basket again.  This time Akron fouled him and with :17, Austin had 2 shots.

He made them both, so BG also lead by 1 with :17 left.  One stop to win the game.  Akron had no timeouts so they came straight down.  Robotham once again drove to the hoop--this time he was contested and missed a close shot...now BG is literally one rebound from victory.  That rebound, however, went to BJ Gladden who got the put back and UA led by 1.

BG had 3.9 left and called time.  They set up a play for Richaun Holmes to run the floor and he got about as far as the 3-line and then launched a weak shot.  He might have slipped, Jans thought he was fouled but you don't see guys running down the floor out of control heaving a desperation shot get bailed out with that call very often.

It was heartbreaking for me, I can only imagine how the team feels.  Check out how much the orange line is above the blue line...except, of course, at the end.

NCAA Basketball

Statistically, it looks like what it was, which was a pretty close game.  First, keep in mind that it was a relatively fast paced game with 70 possessions.  Coach Jans talked after the NIU game about BG needing to run a little better off misses...if the half court is going to be a grind, it makes sense to try and get some baskets in transition and in the case when Akron can't press.  With that in mind, both teams had rough offensive nights.  Akron had .99 points per possession and BG had .97.

Akron shot 41% and 27%...it is worth nothing that Akron took 57 overall shots and 33 of them were from beyond the arc.  That's just incredible.  Even when BG had Spencer Parker in the post, they didn't really seem to want to feed it down there too much.  Anyway, BG went 39% and 29%, so just a little bit less effective.

BG had two more turnovers--both of which came in the last 90 seconds--and Akron had a decisive edge on the boards.  BG kept the game close at the FT line.  Akron plays very physically and then screams bloody murder at every foul.  They had 23 fouls to BG's 19 and the Falcons tried 28 FTs and Akron 22.  I noted in the pre game that Akron is a poor FT shooting team and they made 64% and BG made 79%.  The Falcons were +8 at the line.

One last thing.  One thing I have liked about BG this year is I think we have finished at the rim better, but that was not the case last night.  BG shot 45% from 2FG compared to 58% for the Zips.  BG just seemed to miss 5-6 shots right at the rim and those would have been decisive as well.

NCAA Basketball

Individually, BG had struggles inside.  Richaun Holmes was sick and was really gutting it out.  He had 11 points on 4 of 10 shooting and 7 rebounds.  He battled foul trouble in addition to his health and played only 24 minutes.  BG didn't play Mayleben or Gomez, which meant the inside presence really consisted of Holmes and Dickerson.  Dickerson played hard and scored 8 in 15 minutes before fouling out, but BG was just short of bodies in the paint.

Anthony Henderson had a very efficient night, with 10 point on 3-3 shooting and 3 rebounds.  Spencer Parker had 9 but on 3 of 8 shooting.  Zack Denny had a rough night, as noted above and then scored 8 on 1 of 8 shooting and the rest on FTs.  He did have 7 rebounds.  BG played a really short rotation...only 8 guys, which could have also played a role in the execution issues at the end.  Akron had 11 players get 10 minutes or more and beyond Robotham, no player played more than 27.


For Akron, the key was Pat Fosythe.  He doubled his average with 20 points on 6 of 8 shooting and 8 of 10 at the line and 7 rebounds in 24 freaking minutes before fouling out in what, based on his body language, might have been the greatest injustice of all time.

So, BG is now 5-3 in MAC play and one game out of first and facing 2 on the road, first at CMU and then at NIU.  If you are hoping to stay in the running for a bye, this is clearly a big week.  The MAC season is an absolute grind and I believe it usually does a  pretty good job of revealing who you are.

Falcons look to stop Zip domination.

"Last time Akron beat us like a drum."--Chris Jans.

• Akron has won the last 12 over BG.
• Also, 20 of the last 21.
• Akron beat BG 67-50 earlier this year.
• BG's last home win over Akron was in 2003.
• BG has never beaten the Zips in the Stroh.

That's an ouch.  In both cases.   Akron has completely owned BG over the last 11 years in a way that no MAC team ever has.  It would be one thing if they beat us like a drum earlier in the month and that was it but this has been an ongoing act, one with a long run.

Our program is now on the upswing, having a much improved season and playing consistently basketball.  Sooner or later, if BG is going to compete for the MAC title, the road will run through Akron.  This is the night for BG to keep the streak from going from 20 to 21.

If that happens, there was nothing to suggest it in the first game the two teams played. The game was close for only 7 minutes or so until Akron blew it open and never looked back. As you can see below, the road a huge advantage in shooting to the win. Turnovers and offensive rebounding were more even and Akron had a bad night shooting FTs or the lead would have been even more one-sisded.

NCAA Basketball

Akron is a really tough, physical team and they played really aggressively against BG in the first game, especially on the point guards.  I know Coach Jans wants our team to be tough, and I suspect he will have them in that mindset.  The Zips are 5-2 in MAC play, tied with BG.  They lost @UT--as BG did--but also inexplicably lost @NIU as well. They are 1-2 in the MAC on the road, with the only win being over WMU.

On the charts, we now move to MAC games only to get a more reliable read.  Akron is scoring very efficiently in MAC play...what's interesting is that there is a lot of scoring in the MAC so far.  Getting 1.06 points per possession is really good, yet only 5th in the MAC.  Anyway, it points out the key element in the game, as that scoring runs up against BG's stout defense.  As usual, that's where the game will be decided.

Akron is second in the MAC in effective FG% and they take the most 3FGs in the MAC and have made the 2nd most.  They are only 6th at 3FG%, but it is enough to elevate an overall 44% to a very good effective percentage.  BG is going to have to stop the shot and defend the 3-line, which is the key in most games.  Akron turns the ball over quite a bit for a good team and is very good on the offensive boards.  BG has not been as effective on the defensive boards as they were earlier in the season, and while that's partly amplified by one really bad game, BG still needs to win more of these battles.  Akron does not get to the line very much and they are 11th in the MAC in FT%.

On the other side, we see that the teams are evenly matched on the first two factors.  Akron is very good on the defensive boards, so that will be a battle and they give up a bunch of free throws  whereas BG typically does not get to the line a lot.

Individually, MAC Games only, Akron features its normal balanced scoring, with only one player in double figures but 8 players averaging 5 or more.  Pat Forsythe, their 6'11" JR is scoring 10.3 PPG on 64% shooting and adds 5.8 RPG and 1.7 blocks.  Deji Ibitaya is 6'4" and is scoring 9.9 PPG on 55% shooting.  Noah Robotham, the FR PG, is scoring 9 PPG on 37% shooting and 3.4 assists over 2.4 TOs.

In fact, when you look at the team's individual players it is tough to figure out how they are as good as they are.  One of the things that makes basketball great (especially in college) is that the whole can be greater than the sum of the parts.  Akron plays team ball, they know how to compete and win and they are well coached.  The know who they are as a team and they are tough to beat.  Just ask a decade's worth of Falcons.

Rahn Bailey de-commits from BG to Navy

Officially de committed from BGSU and committed to the Naval Academy! ⚓️🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/O2HYhL5jao

— Rahn Bailey (@RahnBailey43) January 29, 2015

BG has its 3rd de-commitment from the class of 15, as DE Rahn Bailey from Texas switched from BG to the Naval Academy. That's a pretty huge lifestyle decision for the young man and I wish him only the best and thank him for serving the country.

He is actually the second player to switch from BG to Navy. The first was Ronnie Goble's little brother, though I forget his first name.