MBB To Cleveland

Wow.  A season that has been absolutely crazy for the Falcon MBB team had a last day that was fittingly equally crazy. 

First, BG lost at home after a terrible call put WMU on the line in a tie game and about 3 seconds left.  One FT put the game away and the Falcons were now reliant on help.  (Note, without the foul, it's probably OT, so there was more to be played.

Ball State had lost to Miami, but BG also needed NIU to beat CMU.  As in, 15-point underdog NIU.  1-16 NIU. 

As BG funnelled into the locker room and loaded the game, CMU was ahead in the last minute.  NIU rallied and tied the game with :11 left to force OT.  The last minute of the 1st OT was scoreless, so on they go to 2OT.

NIU was up 4 with 1:30 left. CMU cut it to 2 with and the Pritchard tied it with :17 left. Then, on the last possession, NIU seemed to be trying to throw a pass to the post, overthrew and it went into the basket to give the Huskies to win.

Pandemonium in the BG locker room.  As well there should be.  Naturally, we would prefer to make it with a win.  But after all the BAD luck that has struck this team, this team was due to have some GOOD luck.  So, the 1-16 team rallies on the road and wins in 2OT on a most improbable shot...we, the team with the injuries and the illness that was at one point 2-7 in league play...we will take it, thank you very much.

See you in Cleveland.  And congrats to our boys.  You deserve it.

Football Update

So a few updates:

BG has a search firm engaged.

A lot of people were attracted to Mike Jacobs as our new coach.  He's the head coach at Mercer, Ohio guy, blah blah.  He's taken an extension at Mercer and will be staying.  In fact, there's a good chance his agent got the mention on Football Scoop with the idea of getting an extension.

Also, Vince Marrow has been mentioned and appears to have interviewed.  There are a couple obstacles.  Most of all, he's a ROCKET.  Right now, he's been at Kentucky for the last 12 years or so and is their TE Coach and assistant Head Coach.

As I said before, I think a sitting head coach will be difficult to swing.  In fact, this is a case study in action. Even once you have a coach, you also have to fill a staff...with the idea we're trying to upgrade the program.

I have heard that BG expects to name someone by tomorrow, early next week or before the MAC Tournament.

Speaking of assistant coaches, Brian White, our RB Coach and BBQ expert is now tweeting before the first day of Spring Practice at Marshall.  Nothing that I can find has been announced.

There have been no other portal entries on twitter, but JD Singletary (a 26 commit) has re-opened his recruiting.

The BIG Game! (MBB)

The regular season ends tomorrow.  BG is playing WMU....with a win, BG is in the tourney...with a loss, they need both Ball State and CMU to lose as well.

It has been a wild and unexpected ride. At one point, BG was 2-7 in MAC play.  A trip to Cleveland appeared nearly impossible.  BG has won 6-8 in the MAC since then (7-9 overall) and put that into play.  With a win, BG is 9-9 in MAC play, which is pretty amazing given the injuries and the flu bug that flew through the team.

I'm proud of this team and our program. Playing like this under duress is the kind of program I want us to have.  I also want us to be the kind that goes 16-2, has nothing go wrong and makes the Sweet Sixteen.  But you face the first scenario more in life than the second.

We beat WMU the first time. The first game was not a defensive affair.  BG had 1.2 points per possession and WMU had 1.14.  BG won by 4. What you see below is a close game.  BG made 7 of 8 at the line coming home.  The key difference was BG going 6 of 17 from 3FG and WMU going 4-21.

WMU is overachieving.  They were picked 10th in the MAC.  They were 4-7 in the MAC, but have gone 4-2 since then, including home wins over OU and Miami. They lost their last one also at home to Kent by 1.

They are 4-4 in MAC play on the road.

It seems to me to be a decent matchup for us.  BG is playing as good on the defensive end as anyone on the MAC.  WMU is last in the MAC in shooting and last in 3FG shooting. They are 10th in 2FG shooting. If we play defense as we have been, we can keep their point total low.  The one thing to watch for is the offensive rebounding, which is 2nd in the MAC, as you would expect from an Izzolyte.

Against a zone, they might make a difference.  As you can see below, they rebounded against us really well last time.

They are 7th in defense. They are 10th against the shot, 9th against the 2FG. They are 9th in terms of giving up FTs, which might be the key number for us.  We offensive rebounded like crazy in the first one, but I don't think we can't count on that.  We have not been crashing the boards at all, presumably to avoid fouling.

Chansey Willis the 2nd leading scorer in the MAC in MAC play at 17.6 PPG. He shoots 51% and 31%, 4.2 RPG and is #2 in the MAC with 5.8 per game. 

JaVaugh Hannah is scoring 12.9 PPG, shooting 50% and 27%. Marki Strickland is scoring 11.4 PPG on 49% and 27%. 

Donovan Williams is scoring 10.1 PPG on 46% and 35%.  He is #5 in the MAC in rebounding with 7.2 rpg.

They have 9 players averaging 10 minutes more a game, which could be a factor. 

So here we go.  Let's hope to see the Falcons get it done.  It's a good run and it would be great to take it to Cleveland.

MBB Wins 4th Straight Road Game

When BG starts next season, they will have a 4-game road winning streak. The Falcons went to DeKalb and got it done, driving the Huskies to their 11th straight loss, which we may only hope they break Friday against CMU.

Though we don't need that.  BG didn't get a lot of help in other games, but with a win, they will qualify to Cleveland.  If they were to lose that one, they would need both Ball State and CMU to lose as well.  Ball State plays @Miami while CMU hosts NIU.

Anyway, the Broncos are next. BG beat them earlier.  They are playing better, winning 4 of their last 6, including beating MU and OU.

The NIU game featured two depleted teams.  NIU probably has had a worse injury season than BG has, and they essentially played with a 6-man rotation while BG played with 7.  

The early part of the game was close and it was tied at 24 with 7:21 left.  Over the next 5 minutes, BG went on a 12-3 run to go up 9, but then did not score again and ended up leading by 5 at the break.

The first half featured 4 ties and 10 lead changes. 

The second was mostly in BG's hands, but NIU was keeping it close.  With 11 left, BG was up 2.  On the next two possessions, BG found Felt for an alley-opp and a slam dunk.  It seemed to spark the Falcons. The game was never closer than 7 again and BG was up more than 10 for the last 3 minutes or so.

And that's a win.  

BG has been getting it done on defense.  In their last 6 wins, they have held teams below 1.01 points per possession. The MAC average is 1.09.  In this one, NIU had .85 points per possession which is BG's 4th best D1 game of the year.  The amazing thing is that NIU took 68% of their shots from 3FG.  That's just incredible...it's the highest against BG in the kenpom era, which dates to 1997.  It's almost for sure the most ever.

The problem is, they only made 28%.  That's a recipe for losing.  They also made 33% from 2FG.  That equals out to 39.5% EFG, third-best for the BG defense this season. BG shot well, making 46% from 2FG and 50% of their 3FGs. BG lost the turnover battle, and kept a terrible NIU rebounding team off the offensive boards. That's the second-lowest offensive rebounding percentage against BG in the kenpom era, the only lowest result being in 1997.

BG was 17 of 26 at the line, while NIU was 13 of 17.

Javonte Campbell had his string of 20+ games end, but just barely.  He had 19 on 7 of 12 shooting.  He was only only 5-9 at the line. He also had 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal and 3 turnovers.

Johnson had 17, but it was not the easiest night. He was 3 of 10 from 2FG and 2 of 3 on 3FG, and he also missed 2 FTs, ending his 32-FT streak. He had 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 turnovers.

Derrick Butler had 14 and 7 rebounds. Humphrey had 11 and 5 rebounds.

So, this is it.  One last regular season game to come...

Two Games Left...MBB makes trip to DeKalb

Who knows, BG MBB might be making their final bus trip to DeKalb, the worst trip in the MAC.

Look, its been a rough season for the Huskies.  In D1 games, they are 2-24.  Their kenpom is 351 out of 364.  They are 1-15 in MAC play...and have lost last 10 straight, including the Sun Belt game.  They are just really struggling.

I watched their last game, and they were within 4 with 7 to play.  They suffered an epic collapse against EMU, blowing a 7-point lead with 1:21 to play. They took BSU to overtime and they staged a frantic late rally to lose to UT by 4.

Once in a while, they get close to winning.  This is their last home game...if it's close, they will do whatever they have to.  Not to be a voice of doom or Mr. This-is-America's-best-2-24-team, but we still need to play the game.

If they are going to steal a win coming home, let it be Friday against CMU when it does us some good.

BG beat them earlier at the Stroh 84-77.  It was the start of BG's turnaround, breaking a five-game losing streak and opening up a 6-2 stretch.  NIU never led, but they kept it close.  They were within 1 in the 2nd half and it was a 6-point BG lead at the game's last media break.  BG stormed home 13-4 to put the win away.

It was the rare game where you can win while being outshot.  BG was better on all of the other stats and were +8 at the line. 

The rebounding was not surprising, because NIU is the worst offensive rebounding team in the country and in MAC play are the worst in offensive and defensive rebounding.  Overall, they are 11th in offense and 11th in defense in the MAC.  They are last in 2FG shooting and last in FT shooting. They try the highest percentage of 3FGs and are #6 at making them.

They are also last in giving up FTs in the MAC, something BG will probably want to take advantage of. BG is #2 in the MAC in getting to the line.

Their leading scorer is Quentin Jones, who scores 17.5 PPG (MAC Games). That's #4 in the MAC.  He leads the MAC in minutes, so that's a little misleading, but he is efficient, making 50% and 40%. Also 5.9 RPG and 47 assists.  He had 19 in the first game.

James Dent is their 2nd leading scorer at 14.6 PPG, making 44% and 31%.  Gets to the line a lot. 

Their other double figure scorer was Quaran MacPherson, who has missed the last 4 games.  No idea of his status.

Nasir Muhammed averages about 9 points and is #7 in the MAC in 3FG shooting at 41%.

So here we go.  Last road game of the year. BG has won 3 straight on the road.  A win doesn't clinch anything, but it keeps our destiny in our own hands.

BG Men's Basketball Wins 3rd Straight

The Falcon MBB team has won three straight for the first time this season.  And 6 of 8. After a long prelude, this team is officially fun again. Coach said after the game that we are on our fifth identity this year, but right now we seem really comfortable in a confounding zone defense, not fouling and letting Javonte Campbell make things happen.

Here's how things stand.  This list starts at #6.  BG and BSU are tied for the last spot.  We need to beat two of the teams on this list.  We can't make it with a win Tuesday....it's going to take at least until the finale.

Tie breakers are wonky, especially as you think about multiple teams.  If BG tied BSU right now, the Cards would take the spot.  The season series is even, so you start working down the standings....both teams are winless vs. Akron, Miami and OU.  KSU is in 4th and Ball State beat Kent whereas BG did not.  There's a lot that could happen....UT could finish third (although it appears BG broke them) and that would favor the Falcons.  Ball State also plays Miami and a win there would lock that two-way tiebreaker up.

I can't see a scenario where we win both and don't make it. In fact, you could argue that if we both, we have a great shot at finishing 6th at 9-9.  

We could make it with 8 wins.  Let's say we lose to WMU, but end up tied at 8-10 with Ball State, EMU and Ball State...we would take that tie breaker.  However, if the tie at 8-10 is only BG and Ball State, as noted above, we would be out.  We would also lose the head to head to EMU because they beat Miami.

FWIW, I asked ChatGPT to list all the possible permutations and it has not been able to do it.  There may be a hole in the ozone layer named for me.

Let's win both.  It's the most likely outcome.  I do worry about our guys running out of gas-- but, Laissez les Bons Temps Rouler.

The first half felt a lot like the first game.  BG was down 14-7 9 minutes in....yes, that's a basketball score.  The game was competitive for the rest of the half, with a small BG surge leaving them ahead by 1 at the break, 25-24.

The second half was much improved.  A Butler transition 3FG 2 minutes in put BG up 4 and BG never trailed again. With about 14 to play they were up 10--a 4-minute 12-2 run in total.  Much like teams have done to us, BG was able to repel runs.  BS got it to 3, Campbell scores on the next possession.  They get it to 2, Felt on the boards and follows up with a tip in. 

At that point, it was 47-43 with 8 to play.  BG went on a four-minute 10-2 run to make the lead 12 with 4:02 to play.  At that point, it's a 99% chance to win and it never got closer than 9, the final differential.

Solid win.  Not a clinging on for dear life win.  Love to see it.

Here is the difference....first the BG offense comparing game 1 and game 2.  Essentially no difference.

Game	BG Offense	EFG	2FG	3FG
Game 1	94.2	47%	49%	30%
Game 2	95.3	46%	49%	26%

And here is the BS offense for the two games...BG simply played much better defense while playing essentially the same offense that got their butt kicked.   You will rarely lose with these kind of numbers.

Game	BSU Off	EFG	2FG	3FG
Game 1	1.24	65%	67%	41%
Game 2	0.81	39%	39%	26%

So here are the four factors for the game. BG combined better shooting with fewer turnovers, a wash in rebounding and better FT shooting.

Which brings up a point.  I noted that Ball State was #2 in the nation at getting to the FT line.  BG allowed them 7 FTs, tied for the lowest free throw rate of the season for them.  As Coach pointed out to the team in the locker room, it's the second straight game under 10 FTs for our opponents.  It's really important...we absolutely cannot play with this depth level if we foul.

Individually, Coach made a point of noting to the team that Jehmari Hill, the #6 scorer in the MAC, scored nothing in the game...0-8 shooting.  And Brittain-Watts also drew a blank. Sparks had 14 but it took him 10 shots.

For BG, Javonte Campbell had 26 points, 9 of 15 and 1 of 3, 5 of 5 at the line, 3 assists, 3 steals and 1 turnover, if that might work for you.  And +13.

He has been over 20 points in his last five games.  He has made over 50% from 2FG in all of them, despite the fact that teams don't expect him to make 3s.  I don't know what it takes to be MAC player of the week, but who cares.  He is carrying the team on his back.

Johnson scored BG's first 7 and then ended up with 15. That's 3 of 5 and 3 of 5, and 8 rebounds.

Felt had 8, making all 4 of his shots, plus 9 rebounds and +16.  Exacte also had 9 rebounds and Braelon Green was +12.

In fact, this is really interesting...BG's top 3 lineups in terms of minutes all had negative differentials.

BG was +14 on lineups that played 2:45, 1:22 and 1:02, respectively.  Campbell, Greene and Felt were the only players in all 3 units.

So on we go.  NIU is something to be nervous about. They have been clinging to victory and they are still playing hard.  BG would expect to win the game, but if they come in feeling that way, NIU can beat them.

Initial Reaction to Loeffler Departure

Given the time we were in the calendar, it was sure that Coach Loeffler's announcement would make big news and it did.  I am happy for him and wish him the best.  This is an incredible opportunity and I don't see how you could turn it down.

Back at home, there was an almost immediate announcement that Mike Jacobs is a candidate, followed by a lot of enthusiasm from the Falcon Nation.  One caveat--and I have no inside information at all--but lots of times these are posts from agents or placement firms looking to get their guy into the conversation.

Having said that....Jacobs is the kind of guy we need, in my opinion.  Days are gone when BG would just find a coordinator at a power school and give them their head coaching start. Many of those guys today make more than our whole staff.  You either need a non-coordinator or a head coach from FCS or below.

I have always liked getting coaches who have been head coaches, while fulling conceding that you have seen both types of coaches succeed in the MAC.  I just like the track record of having run a program.  Ball State, CMU and UMass followed the same track with their coaches this off-season.

Jacobs checks that box, having been a very successful coach in DII and FCS.  He also knows Ohio.  He is the third-generation of a well-known Ohio HS football coaching family.  He is from Maumee.  And he played at Ohio State.

So, you can see why people are excited.  A proven winner. From what i have seen, there is some doubt about whether a head coach would leave his school right before spring practice.  They usually like to bring their assistants...could a guy completely hollow out a program at this point in the calendar?

I guess time will tell.

Chris Vannini of The Athletic had the following list of potential coaches. Note, Jacobs was his first. (It's my commentary).

Mount Union head coach Geoff Dartt.  Lance Leipold without the national tities.

Toledo defensive coordinator Vince Kehres:  The second choice of the Falcon Nation

Michigan running backs coach Tony Alford.  Ohio State apostate.

Kansas offensive coordinator Jim Zebrowski.  I like this guy.  Has been a DIII Head Coach with a 28-12 record.  Assistant at UB during the years they ran crazy on everyone, us included. I would prefer we get an offensive whiz, frankly.  

Minnesota co-defensive coordinator Nick Monroe:  interesting choice.  Was an assistant for Clawson and Babers at BG and a super-recruiter.  Some think he's among the best recruiters we ever had.  Would be his first head coaching gig.

John Carroll University (Ohio) athletic director Brian Polian.  Always is on these lists.  NO NO NO NO NO NO.

Eastern Kentucky head coach Walt Wells.  Good track record.  Has beaten BG.  He's 57, I suspect we are looking for someone younger.

Chattanooga head coach Rusty Wright.  He has coached in the MAC but mostly in the South.  Decent success at UTC.  I'd say we were trying to fill the list out.

Dino Babers:  NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

I have not thoroughly vetted these guys for a complete absence of Texas ties.

Often, the guy we get won't be on any lists.

As for now, 10 AM on Sunday, BG has three players in the portal.

• Travel Revels, an up and coming DB
• CJ Brown, a DB who was all-MAC at NIU and played for us last year.
• Marcus Moore, a transfer from Akron on the DL who we liked.

The main question with transfers is how bad will it get?  We will certainly fill the job within the 30-days you get to transfer when the coach changes, so they have a chance to evaluate the new regime. I would still expect significant departures.