Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Football Verbals

H/T to Rhys Patrykus of Falcon Media for discovering this.

Jahai Johnson is from Piscateway, NJ.  He's a DB/ATH.  According to 247, he had an FBS offer from Jacksonville State, along with half a dozen other FCS offers. He also played WR and Kick returner, one time returning 3 Kickoffs for a TD in one game, believed to be a national record.

The other is Preston Estoesta.  He's a S from Mason, Ohio. He had offers from Akron, Army, Kent, UMass, Navy and 2 FCS offers.

Allen Trieu said he had a good run of Spring camps. 

Welcome to BG, Preston and Jahai.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Loeffler Presser

Scott Loeffler had his presser today.

Not mentioned were two apparent changes in the roster.  As I noted in the game write-up, Jaylon Tillman is no longer on the roster.  Upon closer review, Billie Roberts is also no longer list.

Tillman was a transfer from Grand Valley who played 112 snaps, was targetted twice and had zero receptions, per PFF.  Billie Roberts is from Muskegon and was at one point highly recruited.  He started on DL, and made two big plays in the Minnesota upset.  He moved to O-line this year and played nearly 60 snaps in both the A&M game and the ODU game, while Reimer was injured.

The only real news the Coach had, other than answering a bunch of questions about the rivalry...

Quick note.  Why does everyone at our press conference preface their questions with the word "obviously."  It's bizarre.

Anyway, the only real news was that Coach was asked about the WRs and he said he expects "all of them" to play.  Presumably, that would mean Johnson, Garcia, Hogan and Smith, with Jamal Johnson available as well.   And the conference's best receiver, Harold Fannin Jr.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-7)  Idle

PSU:  (6-0) Idle

TX A&M: (6-1) Beat Miss State

ODU:  (3-4)  Beat Texas St.

Akron:  (1-6) Idle

NIU: (4-3)  Lost to UT in DeKalb

KSU:  (0-7) Lost to us

UT:  (5-2) Beat NIU

CMU (3-4) Lost to EMU

WMU: (4-3) Beat UB 48-41. 3-0 in MAC

BSU (2-5): Lost to Vanderbilt

MU:  (3-4) Beat OU


Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

BG Gets Expected Win.

The win BG had to have....they got.  As Coach said after the game, "no disrespect, but we are better than they are, this is what should have happened."  And it did.

On to the Rockets.

Much of the first half was uncomfortably close.  Kent's coach noted that BG was focused on McCray and Floreia, so the run game did open up.  They had 8 rushes for 68 yards in the first quarter.  With the score 13-6, Kent drove deep into BG territory but the BG pash rush forced two incompletions and Kent had to settle for a FG.  (Ulatowski was running for his life almost the entire day...no one has run from danger this much since the last Jurassic Park movie).

The key sequence came next.  With 2:39, BG actually ran a two-minute drill.  Working flat passes, they moved down the field, got a DPI in the end zone and then Lucian Anderson ran it in to make the score 20-6 at the half.  That was huge.

The rest of the game was much more one-sided.  BG only scored once more, but held the ball for 21 minutes of the second half.  Kent ran only 25 plays for 41 yards--10 plays for 3 yards in the 3rd Quarter. The game was never in doubt in the second half, 27-6 final.

Coach said we had some adversity this week.  He chose not to elaborate, but remembering that Monday he talked about dealing with "NIL, portal and redshirts," I think we have an idea of what he was talking about.  As always, I'm just putting things together.

I know this....BG started the game with 3 WRs who have played before.  The pre-game injury list had Garcia, Tillman and Hogan out.  Tillman is no longer listed on the roster.  Then, Johnson was injured during the game.  Anthony Wayne's Winn Sharp was out there, and Jared Merk (RFR) made an incredible catch on an absolute hummer thrown behind him to convert a 3rd and 13 on the late 2nd Quarter TD drive.

Interestingly, Coach said after the game that when it comes to WR, some guys we have who haven't been producing have to start producing.  There aren't many of them, so you can probably ID who he means.

In addition, Darrius Lorfils and Dierre Kelly were on the "out" list this week.

BG rode the backs of their three offensive stars.  Bazelak had a great game.  Some people in our section were heckling him, but he was 23 of 27 for 313 yards.  Two TDs, no INT.  Yes, he had a lot of high-percentage passes, but he was also executing the game plan.

And then there's Harold Fanin Jr.  From a back shoulder fade that had Coach Loeffler dreamy-eyed....to catching a pass against his head and then finishing the run, Fannin does not disappoint.  He was 10 for 171, with 91 after contact.  PFF graded him 96.6 overall.

Stewart also had his first big game in a couple weeks.  He had 25 carries (thank you) for 134, which is a 5.4 average.   Patterson was 6 of 25.  BG ran the ball effectively...as they should have.

On defense, the second half tells the story...when BG figured out how to stop the run and the pass.

Ulatowski dropped back 29 times, and was pressured on 13.  His most common pass play was throwing it away. He was 7 of 27, 78 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT,  The Flashes came in with a full #MACTION tag on offense...we now know something about the  Ball State and EMU defenses.

Those 78 yards would have been like two completions in those previous weeks.  BG held McCray to 21 yards on 3 catches in 8 targets. Floreia was 2 for 35.  Great job by the BG secondary. Oladokun had McCray most of the time and held him to 5 yards total.  Not per catch.

BG got the win they had to have and should have had.  Toledo is next, followed by three winnable games.  More on the MAC race this week, and even acknowledging BG's hit and miss style, there's a very good chance that if BG wins 3 of the next 4 they are playing Miami for a spot in Detroit.

Friday, October 18, 2024

Flash Preview....

 What is their body of work?

Where do you start?  If it wasn't for Akron, this would be the most troubled program in the MAC. In 2012, they had an historic season, ranked #18 at one point.  Since that year, they have had 2 winning seasons, one of them the COVID year. Sean Lewis was 27-34 there.  When he left, they brought in Kenni Burns, a Minnesota RowTheBoat guy. He is 1-17 with 0 FBS wins, in possible running for the Tom Arth Award.

They are 0-6 this year, and played three P4 teams---Pitt, Tennessee, and Penn State....lost that one 56-0. They are 0-2 in MAC play, and both games were pure MACTION, losing to 52-33 to EMU and 37-35 to Ball State.

Through all their issues, Kent won 5-straight against BG (Sean Lewis never lost to the school where he was the OC)...Pelini once. Loeffler the other times. Three of them were ugly.  They put 60 on us twice.  BG broke the streak 49-19 last season.

BG is a 21-point favorite. 

How experienced are they?

Their depth chart is TBA on their game notes.  Phil Steele ranked them #6 in experience in the MAC.

Who are their national leaders?

Crishon McCray is #5 in receiving TDs and #18 in yards per catch.  That's for all games.  In MAC games he has 13 catches for 401 yards (30 yard average) and 5 TDs.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -4, which is rough.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

This is super interesting.  Their #1 and #2 QBs sustained season-ending injuries in the Penn State game.  In comes Tommy Ulatowski, who threw for 284 against BG last year, despite splitting time most of the year with another guy.  Here's the weird part...he has lit a fire under the offense.  His QBR is over 170, leader in MAC GAMES ONLY by a long-shot.  His completion % is only 46%, 4 TD over 2 INT but 748 yards in 33 completions will get it done. At least officially, we do not know who will QB the Falcons.

What is their scoring and yards per play

It's night and day.  They are last in the MAC in scoring overall and #3 in their MAC games. Similarly, they are #2 in YPP over 2 MAC games at 6.9 ypp. (All games from here on in) BG's defense allows 24 points per game, which is 6th.  The Falcons allow 5.7 yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

No. They are second to last in the nation in rushing overall and 10th in MAC play at 2.3 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.8 per rush, 9th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

See above.  In addition to McCray, they have Luke Floriea as a productive wideout. BG is #6 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They are really committed to the run.  Sack adjusted they have run on 49% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  21% overall and 33% in the MAC.  BG allows 33% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

7 points per trip in MAC play, about 4 overall.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.8 points per trip allowed, #10 in the nation.

Do they protect the QB?

They have been sacked 18 times on 178 sack-adjusted attempts, which is a lot, over 10%.  BG gets sacks on 10% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are last in the nation in total defense and scoring defense and that has not changed in MAC play.  BG scored 24.8 which is #7 and 5.8 yards per play which is #4.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are last in the nation. In MAC games they are 10th. At 4.5 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5.  Even so, our rushing of late has been a disappointment, which Coach attributes to a lack of confidence.

Can they be passed on?

They are #127 of of 133 in team passing efficiency defense. In their MAC games, they are #7.  They have allowed 70% completions on mostly short passes.  BG is #8 in team passing offense, largely due to 6 TDs over 5 INT.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are 120th in the nation for all games and 3rd in the MAC in MAC games. At 40%, BG is #4.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They have allowed an unbelievable 35 red zone trips, tied for the most in the country.  They allow 5.6 points per trip.  BG offense scored 4.8 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

No, they have sacks on 5.4% of passes, all games. In MAC play, they have only 2 sacks. BG allows sacks on 7.8% of pass attempts, which is creeping up.

Special Teams:

Punting?

At 36 a punt, they are #113.  No blocks, 1 TD.  FWIW, BG is #21 in net punting.

Punt Return?

Three returns, 45 yards.  No TDs, no blocks.

Placekicking? 

Andrew Glass has been their kicker for a while.  All-MAC last year.  He entered the portal on October 2.  His replacement, Will Hryszko is 0-1. That's his only D1 FG attempt.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 24.

Kickoff Return?

No idea

Intangible Miscellany

OK.  Well, this is a should-win and a must-win.  Whether it is a will-win remains to be seen.  You can't be blamed for not trusting this team. A big performance by the Falcons does not mean they are out of the woods...this is the trap we fell into last year.  But there's no path anywhere without a win in this one.  On paper, BG should be able to move the ball against Kent--just as BSU and EMU did--and our defense is playing well, and they are one-dimensional.  We are at home. We should be able to manage this one.

On the other hand, Coach alluded to guys worrying about where they are going to be next year.  Even if Bazelak plays he will probably not be 100%.  Or we have a guy making his first start.  Kent came close to winning last week and has to be very hungry, given they have lost 16 straight FBS games.

Monday, October 14, 2024

Loeffler Presser: Lack of Confidence

Coach had his weekly presser today.

He said that the problem the offensive line is having is that they have lost confidence and they are afraid of making a mistake. He doesn't know how it happened or why, but he says that if we can get that back, things will be fine.  

He went through the "lot of football left to play" stuff. Which there is.  We have met some adversity.  Which doesn't last forever. (As a BG football fan, I'd like to quibble with this...it certainly FEELS like it has).

There was also a lot of talk about the issues facing college football today.  He especially mentioned NIL, portal and red-shirting, which is an odd thing to add.  He says that players get a lot of distractions.  I don't have any idea what's going on but it seems like it might tie into a series of other cryptic statements he has been making.

Or maybe not.

He says he won't know about Bazelak until later in the week.  If Anderson does play, they will have a more personalized game plan for him.  I personally think he would be very effective on RPOs, but who knows.

Jackson Kleather is also day-to-day.

He didn't give a prognosis, but he said that Orth had the same shoulder surgery Loeffler had when he was at Michigan.  In fact, Loeffler had it twice or even possibly more.  He proceeded to give a complete history of players who have had this surgery and whether they ever made it back.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-7)  Lost to Holy Cross

PSU:  (6-0) Beat USC in thriller

TX A&M: (5-1) Idle hands

ODU:  (2-4)  Beat Georgia Southern

Akron:  (1-6) Finally lost to WMU after five hour rain delay.

NIU: (4-2)  Played us

KSU:  (0-6) Furious rally falls 2 points short us Ball State.  Pure MACTION.

UT:  (4-2) Lost to UB

CMU (3-3) Furious rally, lost by 2 to OU.

WMU: (3-3) Beat Akron after 5-hour rain delay

BSU (2-4): Beat Kent 37-35. PURE MACTION.  (In conference play, BSU is scoring 38 a game and allowing 39.

MU:  (2-4) Smoked EMU.


Vs. P4   2-20

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1