Past and Future Opponent Land

  Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-5)  Lost 63-21 to Monmouth

PSU:  (4-0) Beat Illinois

TX A&M: (4-1) Beat ARK 21-17

ODU:  (0-3) Played us

Akron:  (1-4) Lost 30-10 to Ohio

NIU: (2-2)  Lost to NC State.

KSU:  (0-5) Lost 52-33 to EMU

UT:  (3-1) Idle

CMU (3-2) Beat SD State in Mt. Pleasant

WMU: (1-3) Lost to Marshall

BSU (1-3): Lost 63-7 to JMU

MU:  (1-3) Finally won, beating UMASS in OT

Vs. P4   2-20

Vs. G5:  7-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Falcons Let ODU Slip Away

 Here was my last comment in my ODU preview:

"What the Falcons need to worry about here is a letdown, not unlike UT experienced.  It would be a terrible shame to do that at home on homecoming.  We need a strong performance to keep people coming back, especially with NIU here in a couple weeks.

The key test for us this year is whether we can bring a strong game consistently.  This is an opportunity to prove that we can."

I actually don't think it was a letdown.  But what happened was very disappointing.  We cannot finish games and did not play a winning game overall.  I'm not knocking ODU.  They are a good team.  They are at best a typical team we would play in our conference, and we lost to them at home after taking ranked teams to the end on the road.  There was a big crowd, it was homecoming.  If we are the team we think we should be at this point in the program, we defend the home field.

The good thing is that it wasn't an actual MAC game.  But, there is no room for error.  Every game counts from here on in and we can probably only lose twice more to have a shot at the MAC title game.

We will be who our record says we are.

I'll start my recap in the 3rd Quarter, with BG down 17-14 and with the ball.

Stewart got 7 on the first play.  On the second play of the half, BG was unable to get the right guys on the field and got an illegal substitution penalty.  Two incomplete passes were thrown and BG was punting.

The defense got a three and out with a sack, and BG started on its own 41.

On third and ten, Bazelak looked deep right to Fannin, who tipped the ball off his fingertips, stayed in bounds, regained his balance and raced down the sideline for a 51 yard TD reception.  The man is simply a human highlight reel.  

Here is what Ricky Rahne said:

...That number 0, he’s special. I coached a lot of really special tight ends, and that guy is a really, really, really good football player.” 

And he is.

So we are up 21-17.

ODU switches to their running QB.  Put a pin in that.  BG swarmed them and ODU lost 8 yards and punted.

The Falcons got the ball back. On 3rd and 8, Bazelak went back to pass and scrambled around for 15 seconds before surviving a strip sack and losing 13 yards.

Here's the thing.  Bazelak will take the brunt of the criticism, but his WRs are not getting open.  It was a shallow position when the year started, and RJ Garcia is injured. We are just not getting production at WR.  You can't hide from it.  The program has failed to recruit sufficient WRs. This is an ongoing issue, because as Loeffler indicated in his post-game presser, teams are going to put more guys on Fannin, which should open things up...if we can't take advantage, well, see the 2nd half of the Toledo game when Mitchell was on Fannin.

There's 7 left in the 3rd. BG has ODU on 3rd and 11 at their own 44.  As often is the case, BG fails to control a running QB and Joseph ran for 26 and a first down.  Put a pin in that for sure.

The defense rallied forced a punt and BG started on its own 16.  Bazelak hits a couple passes and has  2nd and 3 from our 47.  Bazelak took an 8-yard sack and BG failed to convert the 3rd down on the last play of the 3Q.

BG punts ODU down to their own 7.  So, freeze frame here.  You're up 4.  You get a stop, you're on a short field, you should be able to make it a two-score game and then play it out from there.

BG did get the three and out they needed, taking the ball over on the ODU 46.  Everything is right where you need it.  Except BG is intercepted on the 2nd play from scrimmage.  Coach said after the game that it was on the WR who "stemmed" the route and let the back get under him for the INT.  Live I thought it was a bad throw, but I just watched the replay, it was where it was supposed to be.

Anyway, ODU returns the INT to the 20, the QB scores on the 2nd play from scrimmage, the XP is missed and the game is now very different at 23-21.

BG gets the ball back, now needing to score.  Stewart has his best burst of the game, getting 30 on 3 carries.  Then he is stopped for none, gets 5 on 2nd down and BG then burns a timeout before 3rd and 5 and still fails to convert.

BG punts...Lorfils makes an incredible play, tipping the ball into play where it was downed on the 1 yard line.

BG gets the 3 and out and starts on the ODU 44 with 8 to play.  This game is still completely winnable.

BG makes one first down and then is stopped on the ODU 33, a very disappointing offensive series. We try a 51-yard FG into the wind, which is short. But BG gets the gift of all gifts. ODU jumped over the center and BG got a 15-yard penalty and moved to the 18 and 2 Stewart runs later BG had the lead 27-23 with 2;55 left (missed 2-pointer).

So, this is a close-the-game-out situation. The defense has been handling them and ODU has their running QB in, not their passing QB.  We should be able to win this game.  ODU has plenty of time and 3 timeouts, so a stop is required.  They wouldn't run out of time.

The first play was a run for 15 yards.  BG tightened up and forced a 4th and 6 and had Joseph scrambling, but he found their TE with a wobbler and they converted.  They also converted a 3rd and 3. With :39 left on the BG 25, 2nd and 6, Joseph got out of the pocket and ran to the 4, an absolute gut punch play which was followed by the winning touchdown.

It is a tough loss.  Coach tried to put a good face on it but BG is better than ODU and should have won this game.  ODU appeared better prepared (off a bye week), BG was again unable to handle a running QB and rode one guy as far as he would take them.

What happened?

On offense, BG did not run the ball. Stewart got 67 yards and it took him 20 carries to get there.  On many of his carries, he was swamed at the line.  According to PFF, it was our worst run blocking game of the season, with our guards getting torched.  (Reimer did not play). In the end, it was 4 yards per carry, sack adjusted.  Rushing was going to be our identity, and against G5 opposition it did not happen.

On defense, BG did not defend the run.  ODU had 6.8 sack-adjusted yards per carry.  The QBs were both effective and their lead back had 6.2 yards per carry.  According to PFF, it was our worst tackling game since the 2022 Kent debacle.

BG dominated the passing game.  Bazelak was 28 of 37 for 303 yards, with his highest depth of target of the season.  (ODU was packing the front to stop Stewart).  He was only sacked once and threw some amazing passes....including one of Fannin under an all-out blitz and another pass to the far sideline to Smith.  PFF gave him 5 big-time throws and 3 turnover-worthy passes.  He was far from perfect but I don't think you can pin this one on him.

Fannin was 12-118 and 2 TDs.  He's just an incredible player. Malcolm Johnson caught 3 of 7 targets. BG WRs were targetted 17 times, and caught 10 for 82 yards.

ODU did not pass effectively, but we cannot forget that the defense allowed them that fake QB draw jump pass for a 75 yard TD in the first half.

Special teams?  We have a good punter.  He had a net of 41 with 2 inside the 20.  We are #16 in the nation in net punting. BG missed a 51-yard FG into the wind, no shame there. The return game was negligible either way.

On defense, Dontrez Brown had a sack and 3 pressures.  Overall, BG had 4 sacks. Rosser led the team in tackles.

So on it goes.  Next week is Akron.  You just gotta get this one done.

The Mountain West Comes Calling....

Woof.  These things come out of the blue.  I remember when I first heard that USC and UCLA were coming to the Big Ten.  I was getting off an airplane.  Like five minutes later, it was official.

The news has broken that UT and NIU were approached by the MWC to join as football-only members.

Woof.

We have been extremely lucky as MAC fans.  We have the only conference that has been able to maintain its integrity through the conference wars.  Traditions were maintained.  Rivalries were maintained.  Until the addition of UMass, relative geographic sanity prevailed.  We felt like we were an oasis of sanity.

Meanwhile, across the US, rivalries were torn apart.  The Civil War (or whatever they started to call it). Bedlam. West Virginia and Pitt.  A&M and Texas.  Oklahoma and Nebraska.  It's a loss, to be sure.  Those games are part of our annual lives.  Many of us can mark where we were in our lives when we talk about a BG-UT game.

Well, it has come for us.

The disturbing thing is that it seems like every time one of these rumors launches, it happens.  

I hope it doesn't.

The Blade had a good analysis of it here.  The upshot seems to be that the Mountain West is unstable, that their new TV contract would be way less than their current one and only a little better than the MAC's.  Travel would be ridiculous for the football team, including to Hawaii.  Travel costs would be higher.  There are trips to Hawaii.  And they would have to find a home in a non-football conference for the rest of their sports, like the Missouri Valley.

Furthermore, the article points out that UT could someday make the playoff. The article doesn't point out that if we had a 12-team playoff a decade ago, Northern Illinois would have already been in it.  If the goal is to make the playoff, you have as good a shot in the MAC as in the Mountain West.

So, I don't see where it makes sense, even financially.  I didn't think the other ones made sense for any reason other than financially.  But, there could be things I don't know.

Also, UT is in a major downturn and they have an interim President trying to turn the ship around.  Does the school need one more instability?

Also, will UT and NIU use the leverage of leaving to extract a higher share of MAC revenues, as Texas did in the Big 12.

I will also say this.  It would be an absolute tragedy for UT to leave the MAC and for our region to lose our rivalry.  (NIU has left before and would be way less missed). It would be a very, very sad day.  There has been talk in the past of UT trying to move up--and you can hardly blame them for finding that appealing--but this is throwing everything away for what appears to me to be a sideways move.

But the foreboding thought I have is that these situations have rarely worked out for people who like things the way they are.

25 Questions About ODU

 What is their body of work?

This is a home-and-home, with the return visit set for 2031, according to wikipedia.

They have never played BG.  They are 3-1 against the MAC overall, beating EMU 3 times and losing to UB (by 1) in 2025.  BG is 4-3 vs. the Sun Belt, beating FIU, South Alabama, Troy and Marshall, and losing to Georgia Southern, South Alabama, and Troy.  ODU has largely played without their two-time All-Amercian LB, Jason Henderson, who injured his knee late last season and has played only in their opener.  He was Defensive Player of the Year, pre-season, in the Sun Belt.  In the presser, Rahne said he would play whoever gave them the best chance of winning.

Phil Steele picked them #6 in the East Division of the Sun Belt.  Their official pre-season poll had the same pick.

They are 0-3 this year.  They lost by 4 @South Carolina (ODU fumbled in the 4th on their own 4 to give up the lead), to ECU by 6 at home and then by 20 @Va Tech.

BG is a 10-point favorite.  ODU is on a bye week.

How experienced are they?

They have 32 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is experienced.

Who are their national leaders?

Koa Noatala is #8 in tackles

Jahron Manning #8 in INT.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -1.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

This is an interesting question mark.  Grant Wilson is the guy they want, but he was injured right at the end of the East Carolina game.  He missed VA Tech, and they had an off-week and in his presser, Rahne said that he was getting stronger but they would play whoever gave them the best chance of winning.  Rahne has not been great....58% completions and his 105.4 rating would be in the bottom 10 in the nation to date.  They played a couple guys in his place in Blacksburg.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are struggling on offense at 16.7 PPG, #122 in the nation out of 133.  They have 4.45 yards per play, 7th worst in the country.

Can they run the ball?

They are gaining 4.1 yards per play, which is #83.  Their #1 back averages 3.6 per carry.

Do they pass the ball?

This was mentioned above.   Actually, their starter has a QBR of 104, but the team's is 98, which is 129th in the nation.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 54% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

34% is 100th in the nation.

Do they score in Red Zone?

Very poor at 4 points per trip.

Do they protect the QB?

Average, at 7.5% of their pass attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are allowing 26.7 PPG, which is #87. They allow just under 5 yards per play, which is #50 in the nation.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are #73 in yards per carry allowed. 

Can they be passed on?

They are good against the pass, #26 in the nation. They allow only 57% completions and 11.5 yards per catch.  They have 5 INT and have allowed only 1 TD pass.

Teams run 59% of the time against them.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They allow 43%, which is #108.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are really good at 3.6 points per trip.  In 12 red zone trips, they have allowed 4 TDs.

Do they pressure the QB?

Yes.  They get sacks on 13.9% of opponent passing attempts.  That's #32 in the country.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 101st in net punting and have not been blocked or allowed a return over 20 yards.

Punt Return?

They have blocked a ton of kicks over the years and one so far this year.  Returns have been a non-issue.

Placekicking? 

They have only tried 3 and made all of them.  Long was 40.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23, which is good.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 22, which is not good.

Intangible Miscellany

Look, on paper, this is all of the 10-point spread.  They have played a tough schedule--all FBS--but not as tough as ours.  They have played without their top defensive player and one game without their starting QB, so if they are back they will be better than they have shown.

Even so, BG should be able to establish the run and pass only in opportune situations against their decent pass defense.  When ODU has the ball, BG should be able to keep the game controlled.

What the Falcons need to worry about here is a letdown, not unlike UT experienced.  It would be a terrible shame to do that at home on homecoming.  We need a strong performance to keep people coming back, especially with NIU here in a couple weeks.

The key test for us this year is whether we can bring a strong game consistently.  This is an opportunity to prove that we can.

FB and MBB Add Verbals

A couple of verbal commits were announced this week for the Falcons....football and men's basketball.  Let's check it out...'

For MBB, it Makhi Leach, who plays for Anthony Stacey at Whitmer. Leach is a 3-star recruit who is ranked by 247 as the #6 prospect in Ohio and the #29 CG in the nation.  He had offers from Toledo, Merrimack, Youngstown State, Robert Morris, Detroit Mercy, and College of Charleston.

He played on the Whitmer team that got to the state semis last year.  He was special mention All-Ohio , averaging 16.4 points and 5.2 rebounds.

He joins Camden Karel and gives BG two highly-ranked high school players coming in for '25, as good a start to a class we have had in a long time.

For football, it's Jaimion Olverson of Cincinnati Princeton. He's a 3-star DL, with offers from Ball State, EMU, Kent, Marshall, UMass and Ohio, along with FCS offers. A 6-foot-4, 255-pounder, Olverson had 24 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks last season as the Vikings went 12-1.

Welcome to the Falcons, Makhi and Jaimion. 

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-4)  Lost to Dartmouth

PSU:  (3-0) Beat Kent with 718 yards of total offense

TX A&M: (3-1) They played us

ODU:  (0-3) Idle

Akron:  (1-3) Lost to South Carolina

NIU: (2-1)  Lost to Buffalo in OT.  Let the madness begin

KSU:  (0-4) Demolished by PSU

UT:  (3-1) Lost @WKU

CMU (2-2) Beat BSU in OT

WMU: (1-2) Idle

BSU (1-2): Lost @CMU

MU:  (0-3) Lost @ND

Vs. P4   2-19

Vs. G5:  5-2

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

BG Presses TAMU, loses 26-20.

Let us take a moment to see where we are.  

Reflecting on how bad we were in 2020-21.  Even last year's OU game.  We were just awful.  It was the worst period in our program's history and it isn't close.

Today, we offer a fully competent and competitive football team that has played ranked teams on the road to the end twice now.  We are, in Coach Loeffler's words, "this close."  (Imagine him holding his fingers up).

And that's about right.  We are very close to where we want to be.  And the MAC is chaos already.  The non-divisional format makes every game important...NIU has a loss already.  It's possible you will have to go 6-2 to make it to Detroit.  UT had a classic letdown week.  The team that can bring a winning performance--pretty or ugly--every week will take this thing.

And I think Coach is right.  We are "this close."  He says everyone needs to tighten up--staff, coaches, players, support staff.  And I think that's right, too.  That's often how it works.  Before we were making big, obvious mistakes and getting killed.  Now we are making smaller, more subtle mistakes and they are the difference between beating good teams and narrow losses.

He says we need to "close the deal."  Which is interesting because that was a Clawson phrase, plastered on off-season T-shirts worn by the team.  

Anyway.  Last night was a terrific football game and a terrific performance by our team.  We were indeed that close.

It didn't look good at the start.  The Aggies took the opening kickoff and drove 75 yards in 11 plays over 5 minutes, including converting a 3rd and 8 and a 4th and 1 that came after a 3rd and 8.  (That close). 

BG made some progress on offense and stalled out at the A&M 48, putting the Aggies to their 10.

BG started at their own 45, got to the Aggie 42 before taking a 3rd down sack and punting the Aggies to their 4.

The defense gets another 3 and out and BG starts at their 49.   BG drives to the 18, Stewart was hit with a 4-yard loss and then BG tried on a run on 3rd and 11 and came up 4 yards short and the results of a quarter's field position was to make it 7-3 in the early 2nd.

Here, BG rolled the dice.  They thought they had something they liked and they tried a surprise onside kick, but we kicked the ball about 10 yards over the head of our guy, who would have had it all to himself. (That close).

Still, BG's defense held when Reed ran on 3rd and 11 and TAMU was only able to make it 10-3 off that break.

BG's next drive stalled at the TAMU 45 and BG punted them to the 11.  TAMU asserted themselves up front, running 17 plays and killing the remaining 6 minutes of the half. Even with that, BG kept it in front of them.  In the last seconds, the Aggies had a 2nd and 2 on the 12, and BG forced 2 incomplete passes including a Jacorey Benjamin breakup.  BG's defense was good enough to hold them to a FG and it's 13-3 heading to the half.

Starting the offense, it is clear we need a spark. We had great field position for most of the half, and netted only 3 points.  We had moved the ball some, but not enough.

On the first play, Bazelak found Fannin wide open and Fannin proceeded to put on a one-man show, running around #3 twice like he was a pylon and then outracing like four Aggies to force his way into the end zone.  It was a thing of beauty. Fannin is as good as we have had in this program.  I believe he will be in the NFL next year, based on his performance in the last two games.  Now we need to ride him to a title.

It's 13-10.

A&M bounced right back, scoring a TD on an 8-play, 75-yard drive.  It's 20-10.

BG took the kickoff and drove to the A&M 40, converting a 3rd and 10 along the way.  Bazelak came out for Anderson and BG ran a reverse to Rahkeem Smith, who went 40 yards for a TD, aided by a stellar block from Anderson.  It is 20-17 with 5 left in the third.

BG gets a 3 and out, including on a 3rd and 2.  We got a ballgame.  Then, BG blocks the punt and takes over at the Aggie 8.

And so comes one of the two "this close" moments.  Starting on the 8, BG gets absolutely nothing.  They try to get the ball to Fannin with a HB pass, and Fannin was open...this is one of those things, I don't like the play call, but we were staying in the game by keeping them off balance...we were not going to grind it in.

Anyway, we don't score and then miss the 28-yard FG.  That's a killer.

The defense is hanging in.  A&M drives the ball into the 4th Q and inside the BG 20 before the Falcons get a stop and a FG makes it 23-17.

13 minutes left.  BG has a chance...and goes 3 and out.

The Aggies drove to the BG 30 and the Falcons stopped EJ (Don't call me Emmit) Smith for 5 on a 3rd and 7 and the Aggie FG put them up 26-17.  Now a two-score game with 7 to play.

BG comes back, kind of limping along.  Convert two 4th downs in their own territory. They get to the A&M 15 and BG has Fannin wide open, I mean wide open and Bazelak overthrew him by a mile for an Aggie INT. (this close)

With 1:38, that should have been it.  Except A&M fumbled the ball right back on their first play.

Bazleak found Fannin for 30 and BG was on the 5.  The Falcons failed to get into the end zone, hit the FG with :38 left and BG did not get the onside kick and that was all there was to it.

So, there's going to be a focus on the QB.  When Loeffler was asked about him, he jumped to answer about 1 microsecond after the questioner finished.

"He needs to be better."  He went on to say that Bazelak has incredible gifts but needs to be more consistent.  He was 20 of 36 for 250 and 1 INT.  QB is the highest leverage position in sports, only in comparison to a goalie.  So, if we tightened something up, it would be there.

It won't be all on him.  BG was not able to run the ball against TAMU and threw it 39 times on 60 offensive plays.  With other opponents, we should be able to establish the run and open things up a little.  He still needs to be consistently making those plays when they are open.

I'm sure he is going to be "challenged" this week.  Even average QB play makes it tough to win a title.

Also, BG really relied on the big play to stay in this one.  That's fine--I'm proud of us for having a plan B rather than slamming the ball into the wall because that's how we play.  We won't always need that, either.

The BG defense did everything it could do.  A&M ran the ball on 43 of 72 plays.  They averaged 5.5 yards per carry with a long of 18.  They ran for 5.6 against Florida. They came in as #21 in yards per rush in the country.

Overall, they had 5.7 yards per play, which was less than the 6.8 per play in the Swamp.

Also, BG had only 4 penalties for 39 yards.

Special teams were excellent.  Yes, there was the missed FG, but he came back and made the next one.  People will miss. We also missed the onside kick, but that's a long-shot play.  Henderson had 4 punts averaging over 40 while keeping 3 inside the 20.  He is #19 in the country in net punting.

The return game was a non-factor on both sides.

So there you have it.  We are right there.  But every game matters from here on in.  We need to start by not letting down on homecoming to ODU...we are this close.