Arkansas State Preview

So, BG enters its first game in the Sun Belt challenge.  I love this, by the way.  Great way for us to get a good home game every season against a conference that is comparable to ours.  The Sun Belt last year was #14 ranked and the MAC was #19.  I'm a fan. Based on the Kenpom rankings, this is the 2nd best team on our pre-season schedule.

This is the fifth time we have played Arkansas State.  Each team has won 2.  BG won in 1950 in BG (BG's leading scorers Jim Gerber and Eli Joyce--townie alert).  In 1988 BG played them in Lexington in the Kentucky tournament and Arkansas State won. In 2006, the last Dakich season, we played Arkansas State in a home and home with each team winning at home. (They were the Indians until 2008, now are the Red Wolves.)

They have not been wildly successful.  They have 3 winning seasons in conference in last 10 years, one NCAA trip, which was in 1999 and they were the 15 seed and lost to Utah in the first round.

Bryan Hodgson is their coach, in his first season. You will remember him as the bearded assistant to Nate Oats at UB.  He went with Oats to Alabama and just now has started at Arkansas State.

They are picked 10th in the conference by Blue Ribbon and 9th in their official pre-season poll.

He says they will play in a Nate Oats style.  They will play fast and go for 3s and layups with good defense. 

A brief digression.  I thought Coach Simon said something interesting in the post-game presser after the Chicago State game.  I think some of our fans thought we were not going to worry about playing D.  Coach said it starts with defense and rebounding, which makes sense because you start a fast break with a stop and a rebound. That legendary 2019 UB team was #31 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

They were blown out in their opener by Wisconsin, shooting 4 of 21 from 3FG.

Seven guys got 10 minutes

They have a guy named Caleb Fields, but it's a different Caleb Fields than our guy.  He averaged 11 a game last year and scored 17 in Madison. He also had 4.6 assists per game.

Avery Felts...averaged 8 PPG last year, 39% 3FG shooter.

Freddy Hicks, transfer from Tarleton State, second team All-WAC 6'6".  Had 16 points and 6 rebounds for Tarleton.

Derrian Ford is a transfer from Arkansas and was a 4-star recruit and Arkansas POY in HS twice.

Dyondre Dominquez is 6'9" and a transfer from UMass.  Had 14 points and 8 rebounds in the opener.

Taryn Todd played for TCU, New Mexico, Northwest Florida State  College (same as Trey Diggs) and now ASU.  

LaQuill Hardnett played at UB and had 11 PPG and 7 RPG for the Bulls,

Sweet Victory #6

 

And there you go.  BG cruised to a 49-19 victory over Kent Wednesday night, becoming bowl eligible and now with a shot to get to a 7-win season for the first time in 8 seasons.  It is BG's first 4-game winning streak since 2015.  From 2016 to 2022, BG did not win 4 games in any season.

We are what we are.  So far, not as good as Ohio and Miami (or close) but better than the worst teams in the MAC.  Whether that's good enough at this point is a debate.

I felt like the game had two turning points. The first came in the second quarter when Kent chose a FG on 4th and 4 on the BG 18 to try and make it a 14-9 game.  They doinked the FG and BG took the ball and scored 3 plays later on a drive highlighted by Orth to Keith for 74 yards (two plays, including the score).  It was 21-6 at that point and it was never a one-score game again.

The other came in the second half.  BG took the opening kickoff and drove inside the 5-yard line.  On 4th and 1, BG went for it and did not make it.  (I like the decision, but not the inability to make 1 yard).  KS drove to midfield and then punted BG to its own 2.  BG went 3 and out, shanked the punt, and Kent scored to make it 28-13.

With 5 minutes left in the 3rd, this is the kind of thing that can turn a game.  Plenty of time, especially because BG had been giving up yards.

What BG needed was a drive.  And they got it, going 75 yards in 12 plays and running 7:05 off the clock.  That included a 4th and 3 conversion, both QBs, and miracle grabs by Taron Keith and Finn Hogan.  The score made it 35-13 at that was that.

A few thoughts.

BG played without Terion Stewart (along with Oladokin and Tunde Fatukasi.  According to PFF, Jake Burns had a fantastic game in Tunde's spot).  This essentially left us playing without most of our offensive production.  BG's coaching staff actually had a creative game plan to try and move the ball, something they have not always done.  That included letting Taron Keith run wild.  He ended as the first player in program history with 100 yards rushing AND receiving in the same game.  BG also ran Fannin 5 times for 25 yards and he caught 4 for 92.

It was enough. BG ended up with 7.7 yards per play and 476 yards overall. A good offensive performance against a Kent team that does play decent defense.

It was a great example of complimentary football.  BG used a FR, an INT, a big punt return and a big kickoff return (both by Embry) to start each time in Kent territory and scored each time. Add in a fake punt that extended yet another drive.  This has been the formula and it has won 4 straight.

More creativity might be needed, as Coach said today that Keith and Stewart will be game time decisions for Toledo on Tuesday.

BG's defense was more in a bend-don't-break mode. It was certainly good enough.  They held KSU's backs to 4 yards per carry and a long run of 13.  KSU did pass the ball well on us, going 23 of 40 for 284 yards, 12.3 per completion.  Kent was also playing without their #1 WR--actually was leading the MAC in receptions. However, BG forced two turnovers and had 4 sacks and 1 hurry against a struggling Kent offensive line.  BG allowed only 2 TDs.  It was a credible performance and all worked together for an easy win. 

BG continued to have too many penalties, with 11 on the game.  That's not good at all.  BG only turned it over once and were sacked only twice.

So, BG will be in a bowl game for the second straight year.  They have a shot at 7 or 8 wins, an improvement over last year.  I think we're better than last year.  But if that's good enough, again...that;'s a debate.  One I'd like, at this point, to hear you debate without using the words "Mike Jinks."

25 Questions for Flashing

What is their body of work?

So, Kent has struggled over the years in football.  It didn't look to get better when they hired Sean Lewis, a former BG OC, after being rejected by a few other coaches. Lewis exceeded expectations, taking them to a MAC Championship and two bowl games in five years.  He moved on to Colorado and Kent moved on to Kenni Burns.

It has been a rough transition.  They lost 22 transfers...7 to P5 teams, 6 to G5 teams and 4 to FCS teams. They are 1-8 this year. The only win is over an FCS opponent.  Only one of those losses was a one-score game, and that was their last game against Akron, a game they should have won.

Kent has won the last five against BG.  Three were blowouts, including a 40-6 beating last year.

BG is a 9.5-point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 27 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is youngish.  Most are on defense.

Who are their national leaders?

Andrew Glass is #12 in FG%.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -1

Offense

How is their QB play?  (MAC Games only unless noted)

Well, that's an interesting question.  They had been splitting time between Alaimon and Ulatowski until the Akron game when Ulatowski went the whole way and played really well.  They are listed as OR on the depth chart for this week. 

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are last in the MAC in scoring at 13 PPG.  Also, last in yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

They do not.  They are 11th in yards per carry at 2.8 per carry.  Only 1 rushing TD.  

Do they pass the ball?

They are 8th in passing offense. They have a 52% completion percentage, which is 11th, but 11.1 yards per completion, which is decent.  Only 2 INT.  Chrishon McCray leads the MAC in receptions.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 52% of their plays, a lot for a team not good at it.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

No.  They are last at 25%.

Do they score in Red Zone?

Not great, 4.4 per trip.  Only 4 TDs in 9 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

No. Sacked on 12% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are 11th in scoring defense and 8th in yards per play.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are 3rd in the MAC in rushing defense based on yards per carry allowed.  Given how BG's offense has performed, this is a challenge.  They will load up to stop the run and that's usually a struggle for us.

Can they be passed on?

They are 9th in passing efficiency defense. They allow 53% completions, which is #2 in the MAC. They give up 14 a completion and have only 1 INT.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are 10th at 42%.  (BG is last on defensive 3rd down).

Do they defend in the red zone?

Not really.  They allow 5.2 points per red zone trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

No.  Sacks on 4% of opponent passes.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 9th in net punting.  Blocked once.

Punt Return?

Not much.  6th in punt returns.  No TDs.

Placekicking? 

All games, he is 10 of 11. Long of 48, only miss outside of 40.

Kickoff? 

All games, opponents start on the 26.

Kickoff Return?

Typical, teams start on the 25.

Intangible Miscellany

So, Kent has not been very good this year.  Three questions.  Can BG move the ball if they can't run.  Enough at least to win.  Will BG continue to force turnovers?  And how will Kent respond to a soul-crushing loss to Akron?  Will they realize they are close to winning?  Or did they leave it all on the field?  This is the easy part of our schedule and Kent has been thumping us.  Love to see BG get this series back on track.

BG Nails Cougars to Win Opener

 Well, that Todd Simon era is off to a roaring start as BG picked up a 70-41 win over Bewley-less Chicago State.  BG was playing without probably its top player, Trey Thomas, the Vanderbilt transfer.  He has a sprained ankle and will miss a few games.  Even so, BG cruised to the victory over the Cougars.

CSU came out on a 6-0 run.  BG took the lead 9-6 with 14 left in the first half and never trailed again.  CSU hung close for a while, trailing 19-16 with 8 left.  BG went on a 13-5 run to close the half out with a lead of 11.  BG came out and put the game away in the second half.  The Cougars could not buy a basket and when there were 10 minutes left they had been outscored in the 2nd half by 21-6.  The lead got as high as 34 before BG closed it out winning by 29.

BG had an OK offensive night at 1.01 points per possession.  They held CSU to .59 points per possession.  That's the worst offensive efficiency by a BG opponent (D1) in the kenpom era, which dates to 1999.  That shooting disparity is incredible.  CSU made 25% of their 2FGs and 25% of their 3FGs. In the second half they shot 18%. They shot 20% from 2FG and 12.5% from 3FG.  It was just a horrific night.  BG had a slight edge in turnovers, won the rebounding battle and BG finished +2 at the line.  BG was only 11-20.

As mentioned, BG didn't have a great offensive night.  Shooting was OK, a lot of turnovers, decent rebounding and poor FT shooting.  Coach Nairns said after the game that we got open looks and they didn't fall....they call them "10 out of 10" shots, which means you take them every time.  It means you touch paint and kick out.  I did think the ball movement was light years better than it has been in recent years.  Good attack angles and fast rotation to pressure the defense.

I thought a big difference for BG was rim protection.  For the last two years, BG was terrible  preventing 2FGs...allowing over 53% each year, ranked above #300 each time.  Spurgin was a big part of that, blocking 3 shots and influencing many others.  In all, BG blocked 6 shots for the game, but more than that, CSU had to earn everything it got at the rim and BG mostly didn't foul in that situation.

Marcus Hill, the huge JUCO scorer, had a big game.  Thrust into the PG position with the Thomas injury, he scored 18 on 50% shooting....2 assists and 3 turnovers.  He was +26 for the game. Also 6 rebounds.  Agee had 14 on 7 of 10 shooting and 8 rebounds. DJ Smith had 10 on 2-6 shooting but he made all 6 FTs.  J. Spurgin had 6 rebounds and 3 blocks. PJ Edwards had 4 assists over 0 turnovers. Da'Shawn Phillips had 10 rebounds.

So, it's 1-0.  This was a game BG was supposed to win easily and they did.  Nothing wrong there.  It was a fun night and I was encouraged by the ball movement on offense and the rim protection and pressure on the point guard that we displayed.

On we go.  Our toughest pre-MAC opponent comes in Saturday, a game we are still favored to win.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Liberty:  (9-0) Beat La Tech, will host CUSA Title game

Eastern Ilinois: (6-3)  Beat Lindenwood

Michigan: (9-0) Beat Purdue

OU (6-3)  Off

Georgia Tech: (5-4)  Beat Virginia

Miami: (7-2) Off

Buffalo: (3-6) Lost to Toledo

Akron: (2-7)  Beat Kent in ridiculous comeback

Ball State: (2-6) We played them

Kent: (1-8) Lost to Akron in ridiculous choke

Toledo: (8-1) Beat UB

WMU: (3-6) Off

VS:

P5: 4-17

G5:  6-9

FCS: 10-2

East vs. West: 6-4 West

Chicago State Preview

So, the Todd Simon era will open Monday night.

He has done as good a job as possible to get the Falcon Nation wound up.  We are doing a great job generating student support. I expect some good crowds, exciting play, and an improved team.  A commenter says we beat Wright State in a scrimmage and lost to Fairmont State.  It could still be that kind of year.

The first opponent is Chicago State.  This one has been a bit of a soap opera.

They are one of D1's struggling schools.  They went D1 in 1984 and have had two winning seasons...the most recent in 2009.  They have had 26 seasons with single-digit wins. 

Last year's 11-20 record broke their streak of 8 straight single-win seasons.  It did include 4 non-D1 wins. They finished 0-3 in the MAC, losing Kent by 29, Ball State by 7 and OU by 27, all on the road.

This is our 4th meeting in a series that began in 1970.  BG has won all 3, including the last meeting by 28 in the Stroh in November 2021.

So the soap opera came in when the Cougars announced the signing of the Bewley twins in August.  This is, or would be, a game changer.  These guys are legit talents...

The brothers, both former 5-star recruits, are 6-foot-9-forwards from Fort Lauderdale, Fla. The two last played prep ball in 2020-21 at West Oaks Academy in Orlando before signing with Overtime Elite where they have competed over the last two seasons. 

The Bewley's were the first players to sign with Overtime Elite and, at that time, Matt was ranked as the No. 2 overall player in the 247Sports 2023 recruiting rankings and No. 3 by ESPN and Rivals. Additionally, he was named as the No. 1 power forward in his class by 247Sports, ESPN and Rivals. Ryan was rated the country's No. 4 power forward (No. 20 overall) by 247Sports, the No. 6 power forward (No. 12 overall) by ESPN and the No. 4 power forward (No. 16 overall) by Rivals.

Overtime Elite is an alternative path to the NBA which allows players to play your one-and-done year without enrolling in a University. The players are paid.  There is an option for maintaining college eligibility. (I think this is a great idea.  There's nothing about pretending to be a college student for one year that prepares you for the NBA).

The NCAA has declared them ineligible. You can read a good explanation here.  It's confusing.  The Bewleys claim they were paid only for their NIL rights, just like an NCAA Athlete....and the NCAA claims...not...I guess.   They are suing the NCAA in Federal Court and have asked for a temporary restraining order...and the hearing will be on Tuesday.

I assume they will not be in uniform on Monday. But who knows.

They are independents again, after being in the WAC.  That means they have to front-load their schedule, because they generally have to schedule teams before conference play starts for them.  They will play 18 games before New Year's and 11 after...only 8 of them are D1 opponents.

They return 3 starters, including their top two scorers.  Those are 6'6" Wesley Cardet, who scored 16.6 PPG on 45% and 34% shooting and 5 RPG...and 6'6" Jahsean Corbett, who scored 14.2 PPG on 47% and 32% shooting. He also averaged 8.8 RPG.

Their PG graduated and it is not clear who is filling that role.

Under their current coach, they have typically played very slowly. Between 66 and 69 possessions a game. They were 231st in offensive efficiency and #351 in defensive efficiency.  Their only area that showed any strength was offensive rebounding, #32 in the nation.

So here we go.   BG is favored by 8.5.

Sweet Victory #5

And there you go.  Over .500.  A third straight win...for just the third time in the post-Babers era.  As Urban once said, "one thing we will never apologize for is winning."  It was a great (and cold) night for a win.  We will take it all night long.

Notwithstanding it not being pretty.  I'd rather be not pretty and win than not pretty and lose.  

Ball State took the ball on their own 38 for their first possession of the second half.  They went on a 13-play, 8-minute scoring drive.  That's a long, short drive.  Of the 13 plays, 12 were runs, 8 by Marquez Cooper. They converted 2 3rd downs and 1 4th down.  They played very physically, between the tackles, and without big plays they bullied the Falcon line down the field to tie the game.

BG picked up the ball with about 4 left in the 3rd.  They made their way down the field highlighted by a 40-yard Orth to Fannin reception.  They got down to the 1-yard line on the last play of the quarter.  The 1-yard line.  They lost 5 of first down and 4 on second down--both on lateral runs--and then facing 4th and goal on the 10, Keith bailed the Falcons out with a catch in the flat that he put into the end zone.  BG up 21-14.

4th quarter now, Ball State came right back, driving over midfield, and then their QB Kelly ran 44 yards on the edge to tie the game back up with 9 minutes to play.

Keith made another huge play, one that set BG up to win the game.  He fielded a kickoff and waited patiently for his blocks to develop and then ripped off a 47-yard return to the Ball State 43.  With 9 to play, BG has a shot to put the game away with a short field.

It doesn't start great, but they convert a 4th and 4. They eventually get the ball to Keith again and he went 20 yards and out of bounds at the 1.  Once again, we are never in more trouble when we are on the opponent's 1. We ran the ZiggyPush for nothing. We tried a Fannin end around and lost 3.  On 3rd, Bazelak was pressured and threw the ball away.  Rather than get a TD which probably puts the game away, they settle for a FG.  24-21, 3 to play.

Ball State gets the ball and the BG defense delivers. They get stops on 3rd and 5 and 4th and 1 and start on the Ball State 29 with 1:43, BSU still have no timeouts.  

How can this be a problem?  BG needs one first down and the game is over.  Which they did not do, or close, losing 5 yards net on the 4 plays and giving Ball State the ball on their 33 with 1:20 to play.  Not bad field position, but their kicker has not gone over 40 in his career. That series, right there, is a problem.

They convert a 3rd and 7 and eventually get the ball to the BG 35. Neu said they thought they needed 5 yards, but there was only :12 left, so they had to be on the sideline.  They tried a couple tough sideline passes that their QB did not come close to converting and then lined up for a 52-yard FG which came up short.

Again, a win.  You are what your record says you are.  Which, for BG, seems to mean we are better than the worst teams in the MAC and not close to the better teams.  We're likely to go bowling but we are still pretty flawed.

The offense.  Man.  Look, it was good enough.  BG was +2 on turnovers, and scored touchdowns off both of them. One FG came off the Keith KOR.  BG had one sustained drive, which was the one that led to the first goal-line fiasco.

Ball State was determined to stop the run and pressure the QB, both of which require a bunch of people on the line of scrimmage. BG finished with 104 net yards rushing.  There were 3 sacks for 22 yards, so if you don't count those as rushes, you end up with 127 on 31 attempts, 4.1 yards per carry, which is still not great.  Take out the 44-yard Terrion Stewart TD run and you have 2.8 yards per carry, which is pretty unproductive over 29 plays.

The pass game was similarly disappointing. To be fair, Bazelak made a big-time throw to Fannin for a TD, improvising under pressure.  Also, a highly refined tip-toe catch by Fannin.  And Orth made a big throw, also under pressure, to Fannin for a 40-yard gain.  

As a team, BG was 15 of 23 for 177 yards.  That's 154 yards if you charge the sacks to the passing game. BG was sacked or hurried on 5 of its 23 passing attempts.

Here's the thing.  Teams are trying to stop the run.  BG doesn't go over the top to take advantage.  Yes, Bazelak was 13 of 21, but only 2 of those completions were over 10 yards. 4 of them were behind the line of scrimmage.  I don't know if we don't think we can protect, we aren't open, or our QBs are checking down in reaction to the above, but it makes things much harder when your whole game is 10 yards from the line and in.   Coach said our guys need to create more separation and I have to say I think that is true.  We felt good about our WRs coming into the season, but they don't seem to be getting open like we need.

When he is kept clean, Bazelak had 2.7 seconds time to throw.  Under pressure, it was 3.8 seconds per throw. Here's something.  All year, on plays when he is sacked, Bazelak only has the ball 3.1 seconds, the lowest in the MAC.  Which means he is getting sacked quickly and probably explains why we don't go deep more.

Two last things.  First, Taron Keith is a really good player who has bailed us out more than once and he did it last night.  His bail-out-to-touch ratio is incredible.

Also, Stewart has a high ankle sprain.  This is an issue.  I suspect they will go to the Travis Greene no-practice plan to see if he can be ready for the next week.  We need him. We aren't elite blockers but he is tough to stop.

The defense was not ripped, but they were pushed around.  Ball State had very high yards in the pile-push, if such a thing existed.  They ran 68 plays and 46 of them were runs. Sacks removed, they had 5.4 yards per rush, which is not bad but not dominant. To be fair, 44 of their yards came on one play, too. 

Kelly was 9 of 19, with only 1 completion over 10 yards and 0 over 20. He was 8 of 9 under 10.  He ended up with 66-yards passing.  He's young but we have seen this before, even with OU.  If you're playing that RPO style with a run-first QB, when you need big throws they aren't there.

Anyway, 4.2 yards per play overall is not good.  They had 2 turnovers but were 10 of 15 on 3rd/4th down, which was a killer.

Special teams were OK for BG. There was 1 FG, a missed long FG, a game-changing KOR and a punt that should have been blocked, except the punter held the ball until the guys flew by.

Anyway, BG goes +2 on turnovers, makes the most of it and hangs on when they don't slam the door late in the game.  A win is a win.  We are probably going bowling.  It's not bad.  It probably is out best team since 2015, but that's sure a low bar.