55 Years...

 

Now 55 elapsed years since BG has been in the NCAA tournament.  Here is the company we live with now.  Tennessee Tech came very close...they were tied in OT in the last 2 minutes of the OVC Championship game before losing.  Otherwise, there remain 10.

Columbia: Last appeared in 1968
Tennessee Tech: Last appeared in 1963
Maine: Division I since 1962
New Hampshire: Division I since 1962
Dartmouth: Last appeared in 1959
Army: Division I since 1948
Citadel: Division I since 1948
St. Francis (N.Y.): Division I since 1948
William & Mary: Division I since 1948

Blade Speaks to Huger

So, The Blade was able to reach Coach Huger.  Lots of times, the fired coach doesn't do interviews, but he did.

I'd encourage you to go over and click the link to take a look at the full story.  They also spoke to the AD, though his response is mostly ADspeak.

Here's what I found interesting....

Once the [transfer] portal took hold and the NIL (name, image, and likeness), things changed. The whole landscape of college basketball changed, and you’ve got to adapt with that. At the time, we didn’t do a great job of adapting to it, and that was the thing. We tried some different things that didn’t work.

That's a pretty candid assessment and I think pretty accurate.  Once the early recruiting classes cleared out and the Turner, Plowden, Wiggins, Frye, Fields group moved along, BG simply did not have the talent to compete in the MAC.  I know there are a lot of critics of Huger's game management tactics, but to me, we simply didn't have the players.  Even the HS players we did get seemed to too often not be top-flight MAC players.

This has been our issue for a long time.  Being consistently competitive in the MAC requires a critical mass of good players and we simply have not had it the last two years and for most of the last 20 years or so.  The NIL and portal have made it harder, but teams are using it to succeed and we need to do that as well.

Briggs: Sources Say Huger Fired This Morning

David Briggs is reporting that Michael Huger has been fired.  As he notes, Huger is a good guy who did enjoy some success but clearly the program was headed in the wrong direction, which we have all seen.  It is a sad day, but necessary.

A couple of things to watch for:  players in the portal and, of course, who might be the next one.  There is a good chance we start next year with a turned-over roster.

MBB...Game Over....

"Not good enough [defensively]. No intensity. It's almost as if we didn't want to play the game. It's so frustrating and disappointing at the same time. Just difficult right now. A difficult moment for me."

That's Coach Huger after the game.  They don't have the audio posted, but there's another part where Todd Walker gets him to talk about the future, and Huger sets off on a little rant about the state of college basketball and if players don't feel "catered" to they leave.

It's all very sad.  Coach Huger is one of us, and it makes watching this happen all the more difficult.  At one point, he had us doing as well as we had done in decades...one run to the conference final and another year where we could have been a canceled tournament away from finally reaching the Big Dance.

Look, I even thought it was reasonable to extend his contract after the tourney run.  

I understand how that decision looks now, but I thought it made sense at the time.

BG finished out of the money for the second straight year.  Also, we lost a disgraceful final game for the second straight year.

And this time, we had something to play for.  In fact, everything happened the way we needed it to, except for us showing up and playing against Ohio.  Losing like that...looking like you don't want to play when you had to have a win...it's just terrible.

BG finished at #284 last year.  And this year it was #281. (Out of 363).  

That's 50 spots worse than the year Huger took over after the Jans debacle.

That's 72 spots worse than Orr's last year.

That's 75 spots worse than the 2006 Dakich team (his worst).

This is where we are.  We can't hide from it.  

And now we wait.

I expect that we will buy Coach Huger out.  I can't imagine him being back again.  It's a serious decision because Huger has two years left on his deal...he is under contract until 2025. 

As for the buy-out, those are generally less serious than you might think.  For example, we don't pay a lump sum.  We pay every month.  And he has a duty to try and mitigate damages by finding work in basketball.  So, whatever the amount is now will eventually be less.  (Note, the NCAA is adding a 4th assistant to basketball next season, creating 350+ immediate job vacancies.)

We went through this with Jinks...it ended up being way less than we feared.

I don't take any pleasure in this.  Huger is a great guy and I was rooting for him really hard.  But you can't hide from the results, which have gone in the wrong direction and show no signs of turning around

The Regular Season Ends (MBB)

And maybe the whole year...

So first, from BGSU, here are the scenarios with a full explanation. (I added the percentages from kenpom).

BGSU Win (6-12), Miami Loss (6-12), Central Michigan Loss (5-13)--8.1% chance.

At 5-13, Central Michigan wouldn't factor into the tiebreakers in this scenario. If Eastern Michigan wins, BGSU would take the three-team tiebreaker against Miami and EMU with a record of 3-1 (.750) against the two teams, whereas both Miami and EMU would be 1-2 (.333) against the others. If Eastern Michigan loses, it would be a two-team tiebreaker between BGSU and Miami. BGSU and Miami split the season series, so it would go to the head-to-head against MAC standings. BGSU's top win would be Ohio, Miami's would be Buffalo. Ohio and Buffalo would also be in a tiebreaker, both at 9-9 and a split season series. Ohio's best win is Akron, who is locked into a higher spot than Buffalo's top win Ball State. Thus, tiebreaker goes to Ohio, which results in the tiebreaker going to BGSU. In this scenario, NIU would also be 9-9, but they were swept by both Ohio and Buffalo and wouldn't factor into the tiebreaker to determine the standings. 

BGSU Win, Miami Loss, Central Michigan Win, Eastern Michigan Win--2.4% chance

If CMU wins, BGSU will need an EMU win as well. In a four-team tiebreaker with all teams at 6-12, this would go to the head-to-head records against all tied teams. Bowling Green would be 4-2 (.667) and the next would be Central at 3-2 (.600). If CMU wins and EMU loses, Central Michigan would take the three-team tiebreaker between BGSU, Miami and CMU. CMU won the only Miami-CMU game, making them 2-1 (.667) whereas Bowling Green would be 2-2 (.500) and Miami would be 1-2 (.333).

Miami could easily lose @UB, but the toughest will be BG winning at OU.

BG did beat OU the first time the two teams played. At the time, BG was 2-0 and OU was 0-2.  OU was 3-6 before winning 6 straight.  They have lost their last 2, @Miami and @Kent.

Boals has done a good job with this team. Jason Carter graduated (and was ejected from his last game at the Stroh), and Ben Vander Plas and Mark Sears disappeared into the portal.  They returned only 6 scholarship players and no double-figure scorers. They did get Dwight Wilson back...and some transfers...and were picked 6th in the MAC.

And that's right about where they are.

In the first game, BG outscored OU 17-7 in the last four minutes to rally and win the game.

So, on paper this looks like a predictable game.  What they score we allow, and vice versa. They are the #3 offensive team in the MAC and #8 on defense.  BG is #6 on offense and #10 on defense.  But, just to note OU is +.04 and BG is -.05.

OU might be the most 3FG focused team in the MAC. They are #3 in attempt rate and #2 in making them.  However, they are #10 in 2FG shooting and end up #6 in shooting,  As we know, BG is the easiest team to shoot on in the MAC. OU takes great care of the ball, is strong on the offensive boards.  They do not get to the line a lot and are #6 in FT shooting.

OU defense is average.  Their strength is defensive rebounding, but they are easy to shoot against, esepcially on 2FG,  they do OK on turnovers and they give up a lot of FTs.   BG tries a higher rate of 2FGs than any other team in the MAC, so there may be an opportunity here.

Dwight Wilson is the top player on this team.  Back from an injury, he's a clear All-MAC peformer.  He's scoring 17.4 PPG on 64% shooting. (all 2FGs).  For players using a lot of possessions, he is the most efficient player in the MAC.  He also adds 9 rebounds a game.  He is #6 in scoring, #4 in rebounding and #3 in FG%.

Jaylin Hunter, an ODU transfer, scores 15.5 PPG on 52% and 44% shooting, also highly efficent.  He adds 4 APG.

Miles Brown is scoring 11.5 PPG. He is home-grown.  He shoots 46% and 42%, also very efficient.

Probability is that this is the last game BG plays.  We will see.  In the MAC, OU's only home loss was to Kent.  Kenpom gives them the #45 home court advantage in D1.

Football Schedule Released

So here goes....here is how the Falcon football season will unfold.

Look, because of who we are and what we need to get to support the athletic department, this is never going to be easy.  And it's not.  First, our non-P5 but FBS game last year was Marshall at home.  This year we open at a quality Liberty program.  (They played UT in their bowl game and lost 21-19.)

Then, we have Eastern Illinois at home.  We've all been asking why we can't play losing FCS teams, and this team was 2-9 last year.

Then we go to the Big House, followed by defending East champ OU at the Doyt.  Then, a three-game road streak including at Georgia Tech (a nightmare last time), followed by @Miami and @UB.  The Bulls, FWIW, seemed to be really bulking up on players.

So, 7 games in, two home games...do we get 3 wins there?  Seems like you'd need to.  Then its Akron, an improving Ball State, @ Kent (they've routinely smoked us), UT and @WMU.

Look it we are as good as we hope, a 6-6 season would be beating Liberty, EIU, Miami, UA, BSU and WMU.  If you are looking at 8...@UB?  OU at home?  UT at home?  @Kent?

The thing is that this won't change.  Babers won ten, but he won TWO road Big Ten games.  That's what we would need to be looking for. It's not easy, but the key is the MAC record.  We were 5-3 last year.  One game better and we're in the hunt.

At last....a victory

Well, after 34 days without a win, the Falcons MBB team finally broke through with a win at the Stroh Center.  The win over EMU doesn't make the season, but I am happy for our team and coaches.  Losing like they have been is a miserable experience.

The Falcons also remain alive for the #8 spot and a trip to the MAC tournament, where they would play Toledo or Kent.

BG started slowly, as they often do. The Falcons with down 13-7 about five minutes in. They soon had it down to 1 and broke through to lead with about 10 minutes left.  BG led most of the rest of the half...their largest lead was 5 and it was 4 at the break.

The second half was another story.  BG had the lead up to 8 with 17 to play.  It stayed in that range until Curtis hit a 3FG to put BG up 12 with 12 to play.  The lead never was within 10 again, as BG pushed the lead to 20 with 5 to play and ended up winning 88-68.

BG scored 1.29 points per possession, their best in the MAC season.  They shot 61%, which is excellent.  That was 63% on 2FG and 37% on 3FG.  It was BG's best game on the 2FG this season.  

BG had a decent game on turnovers and was dominant on the boards at both ends.  EMU finished +4 at the line, though BG made 72%.

On defense, BG held EMU to 1 point per possession, which is a winning number.  EMU made 53% on 2FG but only 3 of 12 from 3FG.  They had more turnovers.  It was a solid defensive game for BG, albeit against a not-great offensive team.

Samari Curtis really delivered for BG.  He was in the starting line up for only the 2nd time in MAC play.  He replaced Leon Ayers, who has been in a 6 game slump.  Curtis had a huge night.  Here's his line...25 points, 5 of 5 2FG shooting, 2 of 2 3FG, 9-19 at the line, 3 assists, no turnovers...IN THE SECOND HALF.  He scored almost half of BG's 53 2nd half points.

Rashaun Agee had 18 in 20 minutes, on 7 of 10 2FG shooting and 11 rebounds.  It was his first double-double at BG and he was only in double figures once in February coming in.

Ayers finished with 11 off the bench, on 4 of 7 and 1 of 2 shooting.  He also had 4 assists over 0 turnovers.  Metheny had 4 assists as well.

If you think EMU, you gotta ask about Bates.  He didn't start and supposedly had a stomach bug (along with Farrakhan, their #2 scorer).  Bates played 27 minutes and made little impact, scoring 10 points on 2 of 6 and 2 of 4 shooting.  He had 1 rebound and was -19 on the floor.

So, one last game.  With a win and a Miami loss, BG opens up a bunch of tiebreakers--including a four-way tie for 8th--some of which favor the Falcons.  BG does better with EMU in the tie-breaker and I have them beating Miami due to a better record against OU.  I could be wrong.