Sadness Accrues

And there was much sadness in the nation.  It has been 680 days since Bowling Green has won a football game and yesterday's game could have been it.

But it was not to be.  BG is better than last year, but is still not a very good football team.  BG was ahead 19-12 with 8 minutes to play.  You know, in chess they talk about games where a team has more pieces but is in a worse position.  That's kind of what this was. As Coach said, because of things that happened earlier, yes, BG had a 6 point lead but also a very tired defense that had been on the field too much and the Jaguars were able to finally move the ball and tie the game and then BG fumbled at the worst possible time in the last minute and USA had the winning field goal in its grasp.

The game plan all along was for an improved offense to keep the defense off the field.  The defense is improved--appears to be as good as it has been for years, maybe since 2015--but the offense is just completely ineffective and they are not keeping the defense off the field.

As Coach says, it starts with being able to run the ball.  We just can't be one-dimensional.  Even in the Babers passing offense, Greene was racking up numbers.  This might be the pass-happy NCAA, but winning teams can also run the ball.

Which BG cannot.  The backs are good.  The problem is up front.  It was one thing to be dominated by Tennessee.  The USA dline--which is good--is more like we will see every week.  And it was rough.  I don't blame the players out there.  There are youth issues and strength issues.  We have one guy who moved from defense and god bless him for being a team guy and giving what he's got, but he's completely over-matched.

Overall, BG was 19 rushes for 9 yards.  If you take the 3 sacks out, BG was 16 for 38....2.4 yards per carry.  The long run was 9 yards by Matt McDonald.  It's just not good at all.

BG averaged 6.1 yards per play. which is pretty good.  But 175 yards of their total offense came on four plays.  BG had 10 first downs and ran only 52 plays.  Meanwhile, USA ran 83.  More on that in a minute.

Loeffler did not halp.  As he conceded, he made two playcalling mistakes.  

The first was mid-second quarter when BG was on the USA 25 for a 3rd and 8.  BG is up 8-3.  We tried to pass, McDonald was sacked for a 15 yard loss and any chance for a FG was lost.  Coach acknowledges he should have just run the ball and settled for the FG.  A couple things, it was into the wind, so the FG was not automatic and McDonald was way out of the pocket and has to get rid of that ball.  But, that was a rare time for a struggling offense to be in scoring position and we ended up with nothing.

The second was very late 3rd Q with BG up 19-12.  The Falcons hit Taron Keith for a 44-yard reception down to the USA 31.  This is a key opportunity to build a two-score lead, which would have changed USA's playcalling in the 4th Quarter.  Continuing the drive would have also killed time.

Inexplicably, BG called a double pass, lateraling to Jadeyn McKinstry who looked to pass back across the field.  The USA safety was 100% not fooled and the pass never had a chance and was easily intercepted.  Loeffler concedes this was an error and it was a big one.

I'd add a third.  Early on, up 2-0, BG was on the USA 29 for a 4th and 1 and rather than QB sneak it, we tried to run out of a 22 personnel group and got stuffed.  Just seems like given the line issues you'd want to minimize the time for the dline to beat their man.

That's 3 times in USA territory where BG got in its own way and you can pile those on top of the other execution issues and an inability to control the line of scrimmage and you have an offensive performance that was not good enough to win.  Remember, that 8 of BG's 19 points came on defense and special teams.

Lastly, when the offense had the ball in the last minute and just needed a first down to get to OT, Christian Sims was extending the ball for the first down and fumbled and USA had the ball very near FG range which led to the winning FG.  (Note, Sims was our leading receiver and had a very solid game otherwise).

The defense played well enough to win. After three quarters, USA had 26 rushes for 51 yards.  The preview showed us that they are not a good running team and BG was getting it done.  We just do not have the depth and strength to play 83 plays effectively.  

USA ran the ball 11 times for 63 yards in the 4th quarter and completed 9-11 passes to put the game away. That included a 15-play, 87 yard drive over 7 minutes.

BG also had way too many penalties.  BG had 10 penalties for 99 yards and USA had 2 for 25.

This is just not a very good team.  There are signs of promise.  Coach says we need to figure out how to run the ball.  Not sure how that's going to be done with the issues up front.

South Alabama Preview

Program History:

The Jaguars have only had a football program since 2009 and have been in the FBS since 2012.  They have had zero winning seasons.  Their most recent coach, Steve Campbell, was 9-26 in his three seasons, before being relieved.

Their new coach is Kane Wommack, who was DC at Indiana.  It will be his 2nd game at the helm.  

There have been horrors in Mobile

They are picked to be 4th in the Sun Belt West by Phil Steele.  

And they are 14 point favorites on the road.

This is the team BG beat in the Camilla Bowl in 2014 (Babers 1), with the late bomb from James Knapke to Roger Lewis.

They beat Southern Miss to open the season, which they also did last year as well.  They fell behind 7-0 and scored the next 31 points to win the game.  It was a pretty convincing win..  USA was a 2-point favorite.

Offense

They clearly had a big game on offense to open up.  They are highlighted by Jalen Tolbert, who Loeffler thinks is a first round draft pick.  He was all-Sun Belt last year and was pre-season All-Sun Belt from a number of publications.  USM held him to 5 catches and no scores.  Their local media says he is probably the best player in program history, which isn't that long, but still.

They are also well quarterbacked.  Jake Bently is a Utah transfer who was a highly recruited HS player.  He had a very efficient in the opener, going 17 of 22 for 269 yards, 2 TD/0 INT.  Actually those aren't incredible numbers for a team that won 31-7.  Truth be told, USM turned the ball over 4 times.  One of USA's TDs was a pick 6 and another game after USM fumbled inside their own 25.  So maybe a misleading offensive performance.

They didn't run the ball effectively at all.  Steele had their RBs ranked 9th in the SBC.  It wasn't for lack of trying.  The backs ran the ball 28 times for 38 yards.

Their line returns 69 starts, which is 78th in FBS.  In addition to the poor running they gave up 3 sacks on 25 pass attempts in the opener.  Phil Steele ranked them last in the SBC.

Miss Pawla and SouthPaw

Defense

They shut USM down pretty effectively.  USM had only 133 yards passing, plus 2 INT and 4 sacks...if you pull the sacks out USM did move the ball on the ground.  They had only 3.5 yards per play.

Phil Steele ranked their Dline #3 in the SBC, with LB #8 and DBs #6.  The Head Coach is a DC and played the "Swarm" defense when he was at USA previously.

Their top DB is Devin Rockette.  He had a head injury in the 2ndQ of the opener, but is back at practice this week.

Special teams

They were OK last year.  Their K was 13 of 17 last season with a long of 54 and 8-8 inside 40.  They were #6 in the Sun Belt in net punting last year.  Their return game was supposed to be improved but they had 0 opportunities in the opener.  They did a solid job defending returns from USM.

Eddie "The Brat" Stanky, won 71% of games as Jags coach

Overall Outlook

On the plus side, they don't run the ball especially well, which is good for BG.  They aren't as good as those 31 points would seem to indicate.  BG has a shot at keeping USA from a bunch of points.

On the negative side, they have a good defensive line, which has to be licking its chops to face the very young Falcon offensive line.

A path to BG winning is to keep the offense on the field and hopefully establish a running game, though that might be unlikely.  BG will also need to take care of the ball. 

On defense, if they can avoid the big plays and keep Tolbert in front of them, they have a shot to stay in the game and who knows from there?

The Waterman Globe, Mobile AL

Loeffler Presser/Depth Chart

Coach had a Labor Day edition of his presser and he managed to find some sports reporters who were not at the Solheim Event (which was just great).  Not too much came in the way of news....mostly questions in advance of the Levi Gazarek and Austin Osborne features undoubtedly coming this week.

A few things.

Coach is absolutely gushing about true FR Jamal Johnson of Frankfort IL. 

He said that Jadeyn McKinstry advanced a slant pass, the first time that has happened in his (Loeffler's) tenure at BG.  (We are in a nowhere-to-go-but-up mode.  That's up).

The most important thing involves Sam Neverov.  After representing BG at media day and being the only upperclassmen on the BG line, Neverov was DNP in Knoxville and is not on the depth chart for the USA game.  Coach said that they would get more information THAT afternoon (as in yesterday) as to whether Sam would be able to "help" the team.

He thinks the D-line and d-backfield have a chance to be competitive in '22.

Also, he thinks if BG can figure out how to run the ball and keep the QB safe, we have a shot for a decent offense.  There was no shot to run the ball in Knoxville.

We will await further information, but I think you'd have to agree it sounds fairly serious.

Depth Chart is out.  Sims, Simms and Broden are all back, giving BG a boost heading into the game Saturday.

BG is a 14 point underdog.  I honestly think we cover this one, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Anders MAC East Defensive POW

Congratulations to Darren Anders for being MAC East Defensive Player of the Week.   

He's a warrior for BG in some of our toughest times.  He is well deserving of this recognition.

Anders led Bowling Green with 14 tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 FF, 1 FR. Anders was the only player in the nation the first week of the season to notch at least 10+ tackles (14), force a fumble (1), recover a fumble (1) and record at least one sack (1) when he did so at Tennessee. He had the third-highest tackle total in the nation over the weekend.

In case you are curious (because I was). the last BG player to be POW on a non-special teams area was Grant Loy is 2019, under circumstances that no one will ever forget.

The last defensive POW was Brandon Harris who won at the end of 2013 against Ball State as a freshman.

Past and Future Opponent Land

South Alabama (1-0):  Beat Southern Miss 31-7

Murray State (1-0):  Beat Mississippi Valley State 35-0

Minnesota (0-1):  Ran out of oars, lost to OSU

Kent State (0-1):  Lost 41-10 at Texas A&M

Akron (0-1):  Lost 60-10 to Auburn

Northern Illinois (1-0):  Pulled upset of the day, beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta

Eastern Michigan (1-0)  Beat St Francis PA 35-10

Buffalo (1-0):  Destroyed Wagner

Toledo (1-0):  Destroyed Norfolk State (1-0)

Miami (0-1): Lost to UC, 49-14

Ohio (0-1):  Lost 29-9 to Syracuse

MAC vs. P5:  1-6

MAC vs G5:  0-1

MAC vs. FSC:  4-0

East vs. West:  Null set

Game Report: BG loses opener

Well, we can start with the whole "no moral victory" thing and even if there were moral victories I am not sure that would be one...but it was, for me, an encouraging performance.

This thing was set up to be ugly.  The Vols are a fast-moving offensive team with a high-level offensive coach.  BG's very young defense gave up 45 a game last year in all-MAC play, lost solid guys from that team...the last time this team walked off the field they had lost 31-3 to Akron.

BG started out thin and then played without Neverov, Broden, Sims, Simms and Hawkins, some of the few players they have who have game experience.

From that perspective, a 38-6 loss seemed to me that we showed some progress.  Yes, it is a very low bar.  We are in the nowhere-to-go-but-up mode and this was up.

The Vols scored twice in the first 8 minutes.  But BG did not fold up.  (I'm looking at you, year one of the Jinks era).  BG was only down 14-6 at the half.  The second quarter was the kind of football we need to play...we kept our offense on the field and the defense on the bench.  We didn't make enough plays to get touchdowns but we made enough to stay on the field and get points.

Matt McDonald played much better.  Coach said he missed one big play but that overall he was "10 times" better than last year.  Also a low bar, but up is up.  

BG found production in Levi Gazerak, Cavon Croom, Jadeyn McKinstry and Austin Osborne, among others.  If you add Broden and Sims back into the mix, there could be a decent set of WRs and TEs.

The O-line play was better than I had feared it would be.  Even without Neverov, the line won a share of the battles.  Not all and not most, but a share.  Obviously, we had zero ability to run the ball, which is not surprising and hopefully improves.  McDonald was sacked twice and hurried three times in 40 attempts, which felt fairly solid.

Also, BG did not turn the ball over.

The defense also had its moments.  There were 3 sacks of Milton, a couple of them coverage sacks.  BG did force a turnover.  TN came out in the second half and did what P5 teams usually do against us when the game is close at halftime...they ran the ball.  In the third quarter, TN ran 26 plays and 21 were runs.  They completed no passes.  

Special teams.  How about Nate Needham, huh?  50 yard bomb?  Are you kidding me?  I don't know how many 50+ FGs we have in our program's history, but it can't be that many.

There's a long way to go and lots to "clean up" (in Coach's words).  Progress needs to continue and be sustained.  Week after week.  A winning team has to be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  So we'll see how things go next Saturday.  But for today, this wasn't a train wreck.  It was something to build on.

Preview from Rocky Top...

Smokey

For some schools, winning the National Championship is exciting and then becomes a kind of burden moving forward, leaving no success acceptable once the mountaintop has been experienced.  I'm thinking of NC State in men's basketball and Tennessee in football.

Philip Fulmer won the title in 1998.  You think a guy like that would be set for life in Knoxville, but the reign ended in 2008 at 5-7.  Entering the wilderness, Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, Lane Kiffen and Jeremy Pruitt have prowled the sidelines, with 7 winning seasons in the next 12, no 10 win seasons, two interim coaches, and a lot of disappointment.

Last year was a good example.  Off to a decent start, Tennessee lost 8 of its last 9 to finish 3-7.  They held onto Pruitt (Nick Saban coaching tree) until January when recruiting violations were "discovered" and he was fired.  Late to get a coach, they dipped into UCF to get Josh Heupel.

Installing the Clawfense

It was a rough off-season.  They led the P5 world in losing 25 players to the transfer portal.  In fact, they aren't in a dissimilar position to BG.  The Vols have the least experienced team in their conference, are coming off a disastrous season and looking forward to having nowhere to go but up.  In fact, they are ranked as #126 in experience and BG is ranked as #125.

They are picked to be #6 in their division of the SEC, ahead of only Vanderbilt.  Four of their position groups are ranked by Phil Steele as last in the SEC and only a couple are in the single digits.  

And they are 35 point favorites over BG and ESPN gives the Vols a 97% chance of winning the game.

Looking at the pre-season all-SEC teams, they place four players.  LT Cade Mays on the 3rd team, KR Velus Jones, 3rd, and DB Trevon Flowers, 4th team.  Paxton Brooks is the 2nd team punter.  No real football player can be named Paxton.

Heupel's offensive philosophy should look familiar to Falcon fans...since it is described as being very close to the Briles attack with "elements" of Air Raid.  They will play fast with wide splits, which of course is designed to get playmakers in space and force defensive players to tackle in space.

One guy to keep an eye on is Tiyon Evans, who is a JUCO transfer who was the #1 JUCO RB in the country.

Their DC is Tim Banks, who played at CMU and got his start at BG, as a GA and then as the RB and DB Coach under Coach Blackney at BG.  He was defensive coordinator at CMU on the Butch Jones teams.  For the last 5 seasons, he was co-DC at Penn State.  He runs a 4-2-5 defense designed for today's spread offenses, with few blitzes.  We will see how they align if BG comes out in 12 personnel.

Their special teams are strong, in the upper half of the SEC.

They won the only meeting between the two teams 59-30 in 2015, one of BG's 4 losses that season.

This is the 100th season in Neyland Stadium, the venerable home of the Volunteers.  They are offering a new fan experience, including LED lights and fireworks.

These P5 games are always uphill struggles, and this one might among the highest hills, similar to the 77 put up by Memphis or OSU in the first year of Jinks.

Rocky Top