LSU Preview

So BG makes its first foray into P5 land since we played Wisconsin back in the Orr Times.  The Falcons have played some teams that would qualify as P5 if basketball had such a thing--such as UC and Xavier.  However, this is the first major conference team.

And they are a good one.  Last year, they won the SEC and made the Sweet Sixteen.  Of course, you are aware of the coaching controversy with Will Wade--which appeared to be a shitshow on everyone's part--but he's back now and on the bench at LSU.

This will be their regular season opener.  Blue Ribbon picks them to be 8th in the SEC this year but kenpom has them in a grouping behind Kentucky and Florida.

They lost 3 starters off that team.  They return two guards who were all-SEC pre-season...Skylar Mayes who is first team (13.4 PPG) and Javante Smart, who is second team (11.1 PPG as a FR).  They have also added a 6'9" 5-star FR big man named Trendon Watford.  Wade told Blue Ribbon that Watford could play anywhere from 1-5.  Also, they traveled to Spain and Watford went with the team, so he has played with them a little bit.

He will be interesting to watch. 

LSU was the #12 most efficient offense in D1 last year at 1.18 per possession.  Interesting, they were not a great shooting team (#149) or at protecting the ball (#138).  They were, however, #9 at offensive rebounding and #64 at getting to the line and #35 at FT%.  They were downright poor from 3FG, but made up for it by making 52% over the 2FGs, probably assisted by those offensive rebounds...and forcing turnovers, which they did on one-in-five opponent possessions, which is in the top 20% of the country.

Wade worked with Shaka Smart and my understanding is he pressures half-court like Louisville did under Rick Pitino.  They were #59 in the nation in defense last year.  In addition to the turnovers, they were above average in defending the shot and about average in not putting opponents on the line.  They defended the 2FG and the 3FG effectively.

They played at 70 possessions per game, which is above average.  According to the local paper, they are switching to a motion offense rather than using ball screens to break down defenses.

Anyway, that's a preview of the Tigers, who very likely are a tournament team.  It will be interesting to see how BG reacts.  You'd expect to see BG bring their very best game and try to pressure the Tigers, much as they did with St. John's this year.  It won't be easy--this is a good team, but things like this do happen.

Geaux Falcons!

Falcons Do the Expected Against Tiffin

You put a team like Tiffin on the schedule...I get it, you need games and you'd like a couple games you know you're going to win.  That's fine...as long as you actually take care of business and win easily.  Which BG did, 94-73.

As a counterpoint, we can look back to the Lake Erie College game a couple of years ago.

I wasn't able to attend last night, but reviewing The Blade and the stats, it appears BG won easily while playing a less than perfect game.   BG was up 15 in the first half but struggled with turnovers.  With 8 minutes left, TU had it to 6 but BG closed the half out 25-10 to head into the locker room up 21.  The lead bounced between 17 and 26 for the second half before BG won by 21.

A few general notes.

Mattos started at C and had 15 rebounds in 17 minutes on a big height advantage.  Also 3 fouls in the same minutes. BG out-rebounded the Dragons 44-24.

Gadson and Fields DNP again.  Coach told The Blade that Fields would back for the LSU game on Friday.

Turner played 29 minutes and Plowden 30, which kind of surprised me.

Ziegler started in Caleb's spot.  Beyond that, the biggest surprise was Matiss playing 13 minutes again.  If he's able to produce off the bench, it's a huge advantage for this team.

So, an LSU preview coming tomorrow.  BG is off to an expected 1-0 start.

OH...one more thing.  The Dylan Swingle eligibility waiver is still hanging out there.  No decision has been made.  Here we go again...now that would be a big game changer.

Tiffin Comes to Town

So, for the second straight year, BG will open with the Tiffin Dragons at the Stroh.  Last year, BG bolted out to a 21-4 lead and beat the TU 91-52.

Quick preview here...they went on to be 10-18 last year and they are picked to finish #10 in the Great Midwest Conference, which is the same conference Findlay is in.

They have played once this year, pressing IUPUI before losing 81-77.  The game was within a bucket in the last minute of the game.  (FWIW, IUPUI is predicted to finish in the bottom tier of the Horizon.)

They play up-tempo ball.  Last year, they led the Great Midwest in scoring but finished last in defense.

Joshua Williams is considered one of the better scorers in their conference.  He had 14 against IUPUI on 3-11 shooting, but averaged 17.5 PPG last year.  He was a JUCO transfer.

Dalanio Walker had 15 in his Tiffin debut after transferring from a JUCO.

Jairus Stevens also scored in double figures.  He's an IPFW transfer and a native of (wait for it) Merrillville, IN.

As is often the case, the Dragons are small, with their post players being in the 6'6" range.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Morgan State (1-8) Lost 48-0 to Norfolk State
Kansas State (6-2) Now ranked in top 25,  beat Kansas
La Tech (7-1) Idle
Kent (3-5) Idle
Notre Dame (6-2)--Beat Va Tech late
Toledo (5-3) Idle
CMU (6-4) Smoked NIU...Chips are first bowl-eligible MAC team
WMU (5-4) Idle
Akron (0-8) Lost to BG
Miami (4-4) Idle
Ohio (4-4) Idle
Buffalo (5-4) Beat EMU badly

East vs. West:  7-5 East
MAC vs P5:  (1-21)
MAC vs. G5:  (6-9)
MAC vs. FCS: (11-0)

Sweet (if ugly) victory

Coach Loeffler called it right after the game.  He used the word "ugly" and in a lot of ways it was...but it was still a win for a team that has struggled to win and we'll take it all day long.  And there were a couple of positives.

To start with, BG remains banged up.  Caleb Bright, DeMontae Haigler and Jamari Bozeman--all starters and upperclassmen--did not play due to injury and Jerry McBride is out for the year.  Clair and Nemerov were back...but BG continues to battle injuries.

It also didn't start great  Akron took the kickoff and drove 12 plays for a FG.  Then, after failing on an onside kick, they forced BG to punt and the Falcons dropped the snap and they had good field position and turned that into another FG to lead 6-0.

Here's the thing.  They made four first downs on those two drives.  The next first down they made was in the final minute of the first half---on a BG penalty.  In the second half they went from the opening kickoff until there were inside 5 minutes left in the game before making a first down--by then the second string players were in.

So, four first downs in the first two drives.  Three for the rest of the game.

No doubt, as noted in the preview I ran, Akron is a poor offensive team.  However, this was their poorest performance of the year based on yardage, so that's worth talking about.  Akron had 192 yards against Illinois and they got 100 yards against us, and a significant portion of that was in garbage time.  Into the 4th Q, I looked and BG had held them to 75 yards or so, which isn't even a long drive.  Again, the first drive was 53 yards.

Akron had Kato Nelson back from suspension, and I think you could lose the fact that BG did a great job containing him.  BG has struggled for a long time, with mobile QBs, but Nelson only had 31 positive yards for the game and was bottled up most of the time.

We knew coming in Akron was a terrible running team, and they surely were.  Removing sacks they were 25 carries for 60 yards, which is 2.5 for carry or so. 

Beyond that, Nelson was 9 of 24 for 60 yards passing, throwing 2 INT.  The backup threw an INT as well and Nelson fumbled once on a blitz in his own territory.

And Akron did not get a TD...for their 4th straight game.

So, the defense is one positive from the game.  There were others.

Andrew Clair was back.  Coach Loeffler said that the injury is still an issue and he was "limping."  That's probably partly because he ran the ball 29 times, which is a heavy load.  Two things were clear--one is that he's one of our best players and the second is that he wasn't at full strength.  He scored twice and on the second one he was running wide to the right into an area crowded with defenders and he just made an unreal move to beat them and get into the end zone.  For the game he had 86 yards.

I don't know what's happening moving forward with him.  That right there was his 4th game.  Anymore and he loses the eligibility year.  I would assume if the plan was to redshirt him he wouldn't have played--but maybe not.  It's an awful situation.  You really only have one healthy RB...I could see where you'd be like, we don't have the luxury of sitting him out if he can play.  Then again, picturing him back there in two years when we might be competitive again is clearly attractive.

In general, the offense was ugly.  Akron had 1.8 yards per play.  BG had 3.3, which is also not good.

We've seen Jordan Anderson play well at DB, but Davin Wilson also had an INT and at least a couple of break ups.  Both true FR who I think look like they have good futures with us.

Karl Brooks had a pick, 1.5 sacks, 2.5 TFL...he's a good player and set to be a junior next year.

The weakest point of the game was punting, where BG had difficulties with the snap on two different occasions.

BG moves to 3-6 on the season, equalling last year's win total.  They have 10 days off before playing Miami in Oxford.

A picture tells a story....

These 15 seniors will play their final Saturday game in The Doyt tomorrow. Come out and support as battle @ZipsFB at 2:00 pm!

🎟️ https://t.co/49eiC5itvd#RelentlessEffort // #AyZiggy pic.twitter.com/TSJtclLnVz

— BG Football (@BG_Football) November 1, 2019

So, this graphic tells a lot.

We have 15 players on that list...that's a low number to start with. 

Look closer...only FOUR of these players signed NLI's for BG in the actual year they were coming here.  This is just incredible to see...I mean, you can't imagine seeing that.  No one else in the country has numbers like this...it can't have been worse at any time.

That's FOUR NLI, (Bozeman, Kramer, Lautanen and Sotolongo), five JUCOs, three grad transfers and three walk-ons.

Nothing against any of them.  I thank them all for being here.  They've represented a place I love through very tough times.

This is how 3-9 programs are built, not championship programs.  This program was mis-managed through two coaches...all hired by one athletic director, and I'll just leave that right there.  I don't want to keep looking back, but you also have to learn from history.  Hiring the right head coach is the single most important thing for a football program, especially at our level.  We failed twice and now we are where we are.

To better days....

25 Questions that are Zipped

No mention of Terry Bowden...or the
NCAA Soccer title

What is their body of work?

Tough situation here.  Akron is rebuilding just like us, and they are starting from as far behind.  They have a young coach who is a proven head coach, but it's a pretty rough situation down there.  They are 0-8...now, they didn't play an FCS team, so take that into account...but their closest loss is 8 points to UMass, a program ranked right down with BG and Akron.  They haven't scored a TD in their last 3 games and have only 3 points over that period.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

They have 25, which is typical.  Five true FR are on their 2-deep along with 4 r-FR.

Who are their statistical leaders? (Top 20 Nationally)

John Lako is #3 in tackles.

What is their turnover ratio? 

All games...they are -13.  That's a wow.

Offense:

How is their QB play? (MAC Only, from here on)

So here is the thing.  We talk about their scoring for the last 3 games, but two of those games they were without their suspended starting QB, Kato Nelson, who is #7 in the MAC in passing efficiency.  The other guys struggled, to say the least.  Nelson is supposed to be back this week and is at the top of the depth chart this week and with him they are better than they have been the last 3 weeks.

What is their scoring and yards per play

At 6.8 points per game, they are as last as last can be.  Their 3.9 yards per play is 1.1 yards a play behind the next worst team....BG.

Can they run the ball?

No.  Never seen this before.  They average 2.2 yards per rush.  Last in the MAC, last in the nation.

Do they pass the ball?

They are last in passing efficiency, better by a few spots with Nelson.

How is their run/pass balance?

Not surprisingly, they run on 43% of their plays.

Ditto

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They are #10 at 30%, a little ahead of BG.

Do they score in the red zone?

They average 3.95 points per trip, which is awful (all games)

Do they protect the quarterback?

No they do not.  They give up sacks on 12% of their passing attempts...33 sacks for the whole schedule.

In short, this is among the worst-performing offenses we have seen come our way in some time.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are 11th in scoring defense (BG 12th) but only 6th in yards per play allowed (BG last).  I suspect all those turnovers and unconverted 3rd downs is at the heart of that contrast.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are 8th at 4.8 yards per carry.

Can they be passed on?

They are 10th in pass efficiency D.  They allow 69% completions, have 0 INT...they do hold teams to 10.7 per reception, which is good.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

Not really, they allow 46% which is 9th.

Do they defend in the red zone? (all games)

They allow 5 points per trip, which is pretty normal.

Do they pressure the QB?

No.  They get sacks on 3.3% of their pass plays.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 10th in net punting.

Punt Return?

They are 11th in punt returns, no threat here.

Placekicking? (all games)

Their lead kicker is 2 of 6 with a long of 42.

Kickoff? (all games)

Opponents start on the 25.

Kickoff Return? (all games)

They start on the 28 which is good.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

Look, here is the scary thing (for Halloween).  This is a winnable game for BG...probably their best remaining shot to win.  Thing is...it's also Akron's best chance for a win, too.  Our numbers are not good and their's are worse.  If the game is close, you could see Akron play hard due to the chance to break through with a win.  Also, looks like a good chance of rain Saturday, which will dampen the whole environment and keep the crowd very small.  It's a test of who loves football.