Miami Preview

The next step on the magical season tour is Oxford OH. 

Miami is 10-9 this year.  They lost their first four MAC games but since then have won two in a row.  They lost at home to CMU and NIU, and then @Buffalo and @Toledo.  Then, they beat Akron at Millet and in the surprise of all, won in Muncie against Ball State.

The two teams split the games last year, with both teams winning a road game.  BG has won 3 out of 4 in Oxford, The teams are 5-5 over the last 10 meetings.

To date, in MAC only games, Miami is the worst defensive team in the MAC.  They are #9 in offense.  BG is #1 in both offense and defense in MAC play, so they're on the plus side of both of these matchups.  What is amazing is the BG offense.  Last year, BG was last in the MAC in conference games at 1 point per possession.  The team's ability to score this year is simply amazing.

Miami plays the #10 pace in the MAC, which is just above EMU and something BG's hopefully prepped for.

As mentioned, Miami is #8 in offensive efficiency in the MAC.  They are #7 in shooting and #8 in turnovers.  Their weakest area is offensive rebounding, where they were #11.  They are the top team in the MAC in getting to the FT line, though they are 9th in making their FTs.

They try a lot of 3s.  They are 2nd in the MAC in terms of 3FGs as a proportion of all FGAs.  However, they are only 6th at making them, which is going to impact your shooting.  BG leads the MAC in 3FG% defense, so that will be a key battle.  Miami is 5th at 2FGs.  Lastly, BG should be able to keep them almost completely off the boards.

Flipping it around, as mentioned, Miami is last in defensive efficiency.  That's surprising because they aren't awful in any of the elements.  They force almost no turnovers, but they are 8th in defending the shot, 8th on offensive rebounding and #7 in keeping their opponents on the line.  They are 9th in defending the 2FG, which could be helpful for BG.

Individually, they are led by Nike Sibande.  He scored 20 points in the game last year in Oxford.  He was also MAC Freshman of the Year last year.  He scoring an inefficient 15 PPG, shooting 38% and 35%.  Also, in MAC games he has 1 assist and 13 turnovers.

Delonte Brown is scoring 11 a game, shooting 49% and 39%.  He's from Bowsher and scored 16 against BG at the Stroh last year.

Darrion Ringo is back.  During the off-season, he was gone at one point and then he was back.  He is scoring 10.8 PPG shooting 45% and 30%.  He leads the team with about 5 assists per game.

Their leading rebounder is 6'5" G Jalen Adway at 6.8 RPG per game.  JUCO Transfer Bam Bowman averages 6.5 RPG.  BAM!

So, that's the RedHawk story.  Even as BG has been winning, they have continued to bring their best game every time, and I think if they do it again, they should be able to win this one.

BG MBB Takes Sole Possession of First

und der Beat geht weiter

That's 6 in a row in the MAC and 10 in a row overall.  And, with Buffalo's defeat, BG's Falcons (MBB) are #1 in the MAC all by themselves, virtually unthinkable when they were picked to be dead last when the season started.

So much fun.  Every game gets better.

This one was EMU, playing a 2-3 zone which early this season had us completely befuddled.  On this day, in January, BG handled the zone and some, and continued to play solid defense, outrebounded a nationally ranked rebounding team and beat some pressure and it was all on the road and bundled into an 80-67 win.

The first half of the game was competitive.  With 8:25 left BG hit a 3FG to go up 19-16 and the Falcons led for the remainder of the game without interruption.  BG was up 9 at halftime.  Five minutes into the second half BG had the lead into double digits and it was never inside 10 for the remainder of the game, getting as high as 18.  Another night where the Falcons cruise to victory.

Not only did BG succeed against the zone, they had their best offensive game this year and the best D1 game since that UT 2OT game a couple seasons ago.  As mentioned in the preview, EMU plays slow.  This game had 63 possessions, so scoring 80 in that low number of possessions is impressive.  BG scored 1.275 points per possession.  That came not from one factor being great, but a number of them.  First, BG had an EFG% of 56%--only their 8th best of the year--but BG took excellent care of the ball, had good offensive rebounding and only did OK getting to the line, but made 72% when they got there.  BG shot 49% from 2FG--their best since the Ohio game--but made 47% from 3FG, which is also their best since the Ohio game.

On the EMU side, the Eagles were actually relatively effective at 1.07 points per possession.  That's the best offensive/worst defensive game in the 10-game winning streak.  They shot pretty well at 49%, with 48% on 2FGs but only 33% of 3FGs.  Overall, BG did outshoot them, though, and EMU also turned the ball over more.  Most importantly, EMU came in #14 in the country with 41% offensive rebounding, but BG held them to 29%.  Finally, EMU did get to the line and made 70% of their FTs.

Individually, BG had contributions from a few players.

Justin Turner led the scoring, with 19 points on 5 of 10 and 3 of 4 shooting, plus 6-6 at the line and 2 steals.

Demajeo Wiggins had a better game after slumping for four games.  He scored 13 points, on 5 of 8 shooting, made 3 of 4 at the line and only 1 turnover.  He added 10 rebounds.  He scored on a couple of dunks when BG broke the press and went for the rim rather than letting the opponent reset.

Dylan Frye scored 11.  Coach mentioned in the post-game that Dylan is letting the game coming to him and not forcing shots up.  He's been deadly on open looks.  He shot 4 of 11 and 3 of 6 and had 4 assists over 0 turnovers.

Jeffrey Uju had a big contribution.  That's 11 points in 11 minutes.  He shot 5 of 6 from the field...including some zone-crushing shots from in the paint.

Marlon Sierra also had 9.  He shot 4 of 5 and 1 of 1, and 4 assists.

Caleb Fields had 4 assists.  In fact, BG had 20 assists on 29 baskets.  Laster had 8 on 3 of 6 and 2 of 4 shooting. 

Just a nice game up and down the line. And another cruise to victory for BG.  No need to bite nails or stress.

Miami is up next after winning 2 straight, in Oxford.
 

EMU MBB Preview

BG will hit the court for their sixth MAC game and a nine-game winning streak and a two-game lead over the next teams (other than Buffalo).

The next on the menu is EMU.  As always, they are hard to judge.  They are 8-10, but that's with 4 non-D1 wins.  It also includes losses at Kansas and Duke.  They also lost to Detroit, as BG did.

They are 2-3 in the MAC, but they have played the toughest schedule to date in the conference.  They've played Buffalo twice, @ Ball State, Kent and @ Akron.  Their wins are Ball State, and Kent, who they beat by 34.

BG beat EMU twice last year--both in overtime, once in Ypsi and once in BG in the MAC tourney.  In the last 10 games, EMU has won 6 and but BG has a two-game winning streak at EMU.

They play the Syracuse 2-3 zone, which is their signature.  They play it right.  They were picked to win the West after an 11-7 MAC season last year and adding a big-man transfer from Grand Canyon.  To date the results aren't what they might have hoped for, but again they have some tough games behind them.  (For reference, Kenpom is the source for them playing the toughest MAC schedule to date.  BG is #11).

Following stats are MAC games only.  BG is #2 in the offense and #1 in defense in the MAC to date.  EMU is #5 in offense and #6 in defense.  They have a lot of size.

The first thing about how EMU plays is that they play at a slow pace.  SLOW.  They are last in the MAC and in the bottom four of all D1 for all games.  They play at a full 5 possessions below the national average.  They do ALMOST everything well on offense.  They are the 4th in shooting, 1st in offensive rebounding and 4th in getting to the line.  Their only weakness is turning the ball over, in which they are last.

They don't take many 3FGs on average, though when they do they are 2nd at making them.  Notwithstanding their big men, they are 9th in 2FG%.  They are 11th in FT shooting.

One huge key is going to be rebounding.  EMU is #1 in offensive rebounding and #14 in the country and BG leads the MAC in defensive rebounding.  That will be a key battle, as well as BG forcing misses to start with.

Flipping it around, EMU's strength is forcing turnovers.  That zone can be very tricky to move the ball around on and EMU has a long team.  BG will need to take care of the ball.  EMU is not great against the shot, which is unusual.  They are 6th in EFG% defense--that's 4th against the 3 and 9th against the 2, if you get inside the zone.  They are poor on the defensive boards and on preventing teams from getting to the line.  In general, this has not been the EMU lockdown D we have come to know in the past.

Their leading scorer (again, MAC play only) is Elijah Minnie, scoring 16.8 per game, shooting 47% and 46% from 3, which is really good.  He also averages 6 RPG.

Paul Jackson is their second-leading scorer at 14.4 PPG.  He shoots 39% and 27%, which is inefficient.  He does average 5.4 assists per game.

James Thompson IV is usually their top scorer.  He is scoring 12.8 PPG on 73% shooting to go with 12 rebounds.  Their transfer is Barbecar Toure, who came in from Grand Canyon as a grad transfer.  He's scoring 9.4 PPG and 8.8 RPG.

They are a big team.  They are in the top 10% of teams in terms of effective height on kenpom.  This will put pressure on BG's bigs, from Wiggins through to Uju and even possibly Mattos.

 EMU is also experienced, #30 in the team on that measure.

Every game is a new test for BG.  You can't sleep on EMU, that's for sure, especially in Ypsi.

Superlatives Round Up

Here are the curated superlatives from bgsufalcons.com.

• For the first time since the 1961-62 season, Bowling Green has gotten off to a 5-0 start in Mid-American Conference play. The 1961-62 Falcons won their first seven MAC games.  (That was also a Harold Anderson coached team.  They went 21-4, won the MAC title and played in the NCAA tourney, losing to Butler by 1 in Lexington, KY).
• Bowling Green has won five-straight MAC games for the first time in a decade. The Falcons won six-straight conference games during the 2008-09 championship season.  (That team won the regular season title).
• The Orange and Brown have won nine-straight games for the first time since 2001-02. The 2001-02 Falcons won 12-straight games, but only three of the wins were MAC victories. (That team finished 24-9, lost to Kent in the MAC final and lost to Butler in the NIT.  The most at-large worthy team in program history).
• The Falcons are 10-0 at home for the first time since the 1999-2000 BGSU squad went a perfect 12-0 at Anderson Arena. The Stroh Center record for home wins a single season for the men's basketball team is 12. During the venue's inaugural season, the Falcons went 12-4 at home.
• Over the Falcons' nine-game winning streak, BGSU is outscoring its opponents by an average of 19.1 points, and outrebounding its opponents by an average of 10.0 rebounds. BGSU is shooting 46.7 percent from the field, while holding its opponents to 38.6 percent shooting.

Falcon MBB Move to 5-0.

Sequitur et percussio

Nine in a row.  Five in a row in the MAC.  Succeeding at levels not seen here in my lifetime.....MY lifetime, for crying out loud.  This is fun.  Let the beat go on.

There's no other way to put it, but BG dismantled WMU yesterday at the Stroh.  Yes, the Broncos are winless, but they had played Buffalo hard (albeit in Kzoo) and are always competitive.  It simply never was, 78-49.  An amazing result for the Falcons.  This is just not something I had expected to see.

BG led wire to wire.  The Falcons jumped out to a 9-0 lead.  Mid-way through the half BG was up by 3 and with 6 minutes left BG was up 6, 21-15.  Important to note the very low score.  At this point, neither team was scoring--BG was missing a lot of makeable shots.  Anyway, BG started to make their shots and WMU never did.  BG closed out the half 9-2 to lead 30-17.  BG stormed out in the second half, had the lead over 20 by the first media timeout.  From there, the game was never closer than 19 and BG led by as much as 33 in the second half.

In the words of the retiring Marty Brennaman, "haaaaaaaaaaaaave Mercy."

BG held WMU to .67 points per possession, BG's best defensive performance in a D1 game since a December, 2009 game at Fordham.  It's Western's worst offensive game since they played Northwestern in 2013.  BG simply played great defense.  WMU made 39% of their 2 FGs and just 13% of the 3FGs.  They turned the ball over, BG kept them off the boards and did pretty well keeping them off the line.'

One thing that's interesting is steals.  So, it's my theory that steals are more valuable than other turnovers.  I don't have data for that, but when you talk points off turnovers, it seems to be that a dead ball turnover just results in a half-court set, whereas a live ball turnover combines a stop with a transition attempt.  Anyway, BG leads the MAC right now in steals as a percentage of overall possessions (in MAC play), and I think it's noticeable on the floor.

Meanwhile, BG scored 1.11 points per possession, a winnable number on its own.  BG's shooting was below average, at 48% EFG.  That's 42% on 2FG and 41% on 3FG.  To compensate, BG took outstanding care of the ball, their best turnover game of the season.  BG was strong on the offensive boards as well.  Lastly, WMU was 13 of 19 on FTs and BG 12 of 16, so the actual point margin was only 1.

Individually, the really interesting thing is Demajeo Wiggins.  If you had said BG had won five straight in the MAC and Wiggins would have scored 21 points and shot 4 of 24 over the last four of those games, I don't think you'd have thought that was possible.  In the Ball State game, he struggled to score but had 15 rebounds, but in this game he had only 4 rebounds and played only 22 minutes in a game where WMU had a true post threat.

I'm not ripping him, these are just facts.  It's possible he's playing through an injury they are keeping quiet.  Also, there's no doubt that teams are focusing on him with their defense--but he'd always still kept rebounding.

One thing is that if teams are packing in on Wiggins, BG is compensating from the outside, something we did not do consistently when we had inside threats like Calhoun and Holmes in recent years.

Dylan Frye led BG's scoring with 14 points shooting 5 of 12 and 4 of 8 from 3FG.  He also led the team with 7 rebounds and had 5 assists over 0 rebounds.  Justin Turner had 13 on 5 of 13 shooting and 0 of 3 from 3FG.  He added five rebonds and 4 assists.  Caleb Fields had a highly efficient 10, making 4 of 6 and 2 of 3 and added 4 rebounds in 22 minutes.  Antwon Lillard had 10 on 3 of 7 and 1 of 3 shooting and 6 rebounds.   None of the players played their normal minutes due to the big lead.

Next up is EMU, playing a 2-3 zone that has stymied BG in the past.  Coach said after the game that you have to make shots to beat EMU and hopefully we're getting confident enough to make those shots.  Loving it.

Pelini Leaves BG. Back to Youngstown State.

Bowling Green announces defensive coordinator Carl Pelini will be leaving the program. They did not announce their new DC, but it will almost certainly be Brian VanGorder.

— Nick Piotrowicz (@NickPBlade) January 19, 2019

Source: Carl Pelini heading back to Youngstown State…as head coach in waiting https://t.co/iU75SvblKu

— FootballScoop Staff (@FootballScoop) January 19, 2019

So, the above news broke from the Saturday snow here in Northwest Ohio.  Carl Pelini leaving the BG program and heading back to Youngstown State as coach-in-waiting.

You had to wonder about the arrangement once Brian VanGorder came on board.  He's a long-time DC at major schools and in the NFL.  He had an existing relationship with Scot Loeffler and it was just hard to see him being a LB coach and Pelini running the defense over the long-haul.

A couple points.  First, I'm happy for Coach Pelini.  He was a 100% honorable and professional when Coach Jinks was fired.  He held the team together, kept the season from spiraling off, and was a true servant-leader.  He clearly had the respect of the people he worked with.  I assume he wants to head coach again and this is an opportunity for him to do it, and I'm happy for him.  He deserves it and he goes with our thanks.

Second, Brian Van Gorder has been hired for some big jobs.  I think he's certainly qualified to run our defense.  Now, being qualified is only part of succeeding--true of our entire staff--but he's certainly qualified.  The one thing I liked about Pelini staying was that we had made a little progress on defense and the players will now be under the third defensive system in three years, which is not optimal.

Third, both Van Gorder and Pelini bring a comparably-sized and motivated internet troll following.

Bronco Preview

So, in the snow, here's come the Broncos.  They are winless in the MAC but there are no off days in the MAC and Hawkins always has his team ready to play.  They battled Buffalo very tough in their last game and they will battle the Falcons tough in this one.

They are 6-11 overall.  Their best win is over Detroit, ranked #197---a team that beat BG, FWIW.  They also lost 3 games to teams ranked 285 or below...it's been a tough season for the Broncos.  By and large, they have been very good.  Hawkins took over in 2003-4, and in the 15 years he's completed there they have been to the NCAAs twice, won 20 games 7 times, and been over .500 in the MAC 11 times, both numbers BG cannot meet over roughly the same period.

In fact, WMU was picked to win the West last season, but injuries to four key players kept them at 9-9.

BG beat them last year at the Stroh, and the teams are 5-5 over the past 10 years.  We will play twice this year.

So, this year, they lost All-MAC player Thomas Wilder to graduation.  Double figure scoring G Reggie Jones transferred to Tulsa.  Their second leading scorer Bryce Moore had surgery and is expected to redshirt.  Brandon Johnson also played almost the whole season injured and had surgery and is out indefinitely, last I saw.

And so, you see why things might be tough.

This will be a physical game.  WMU is typically very physical.  In fact, here's a story about them practicing in football pads.

So, matching them up...actually, you never see this, BG and WMU's season production are perfect matches.  WMU is a poor offensive team and BG is good on defense, and BG is decent on offense and they are decent on defense.

Breaking that down, they are below average shooters who turn the ball over a lot.  That's a rough mix.  They aren't awful on offense, though, and that's because they are very good on the offensive boards and the are very good getting to the line, and they make 70% when they are there.  They take an above-average number of 3FGs, but they are well below average (31.5%).  For a power team, they only make 50.7% of the 2FGs, which is ever so slightly above average.  The boards battle will be key.....BG is #10 in the country in defensive rebounding.  If the Falcons take that away, they have an excellent shot of keeping the WMU offense in check.

When BG has the ball, you have a team shooting about average against a team defending about average.  The key is the WMU does not force turnovers (among the 10 worst in the country) and is about average on the defensive boards.  They do keep their opponents off the line, (top 50 nationally) and it all adds up to a subpar defense.

They allow 36% on 3FGs, which is subpar and they are slightly above average against the 2FG.

Michael Flowers is their leading scorer at 16.2 per game.  He's not proficient overall on this FGs (43%) but he's shooting 38% from 3FG, which is good, and adds 4.9 rpg and 3.8 over 3.1 A/T.

Thier main big man is 7-footer Seth Dugan, who seems to have played in Kalamazoo forever.  He scored 14.8 per game on 54% shooting to go with 8.3 rebounds and a blocked shot per game  Josh Davis also scores in double figures at 13.7 PPG, also with 6.2 rpg. 

Beyond the defensive battle mentioned above, another key is how the post play goes.  Both teams offer a traditional 5 with productivity on the inside.  Wiggins has been struggling on offense for three games under MAC-quality defensive scrutiny and I would be surprised to see WMU do anything else.  He either needs to be able to be strong with the ball or kick it out on the double team.  BSU said they wanted to make BG in a jump shooting team and it more or less work and it hamstrung BG, so they'll need an answer to that.

As well as BG is playing at home, you'd expect to win this one.  However, WMU is battling and we're not going to win forever.  This is one of those games that might not be pretty, but you have to figure out a way to win.