And the Beat Goes On: BG Romps Over OU

Who would think we would be here right now?

BG beat OU 82-63 last night at the Stroh.  That's the team picked to finish last in the MAC at 2-0 with wins over Kent and OU in the East Division.  Not to be that guy, but it's just a start, but...it is also a start, and you can't have a middle and a finish until you have a start.

A few superlatives from BGSUFalcons.com:

• BG has won six-straight games by double digits for the first time since the 48-49 team.  That team was coached by Harold Anderson, featuring Charlie Share, Mac Otten, and captained by Leo Kubiak.  All played professionally.  (I added the last part).
• The six-game winning streak matches its longest of the Michael Huger Era. 
• The Orange and Brown are 8-0 at home for the first time since 1999-2000. Prior to this season, the Falcons had never started a season 8-0 inside the Stroh Center.
• BGSU has won eight-straight home games by 10-plus points for the first time since 1997. 
• Bowling Green is 2-0 in Mid-American Conference play for the first time since 2014-15. 
• For the first time since the 1999-2000 season, Bowling Green has opened Mid-American Conference play with two-straight wins by double digits.
• The 19-point win for Bowling Green marks the program's largest margin of victory over Ohio since a 75-41 triumph on March 8, 2009 at Anderson Arena. The win, which came on the last day of the 2008-09 regular season, clinched a regular-season MAC title for the Falcons.

All right, then.  We're on a good run.

This game was VERY interesting.  Going to spend some time on it.

Here's the thing.  OU came out and was taking it to the Falcons.  Bobcats led 13-4 heading into the first media timeout.  You sort of felt that the same old thing was happening.

What did Coach do?  He took four of the starters straight out of the game.  He put Lillard, Laster, Uju and Sierra in and he took Frye, Wiggins, Plowden and Fields out.  Only Turner stayed in.

And what happened?  Well, six minutes later, when Plowden and Wiggins checked back in, BG was down 21-20, so a 16-8 run for the reserves.  BG up was up 9 with 6 minutes left in the first half, but did not score for the remainder of the half while OU nailed 3 treys in that time to tie the game at halftime.

So, the second half starts tied.  It's a battle.  The first 10 minutes are what you expect of a MAC game...close score, tough possessions, leading by one possession or so.  With 9 minutes or so left, BG was up 3.  Then, the Falcons took the game over.  Lillard 3, Sierra steal from Carter, Lillard 3, BG stop, teams trade stops, Frye 3, BG stop, UJU fastbreak layup.  In 2:30, BG goes 11-0 and up 14.  And, 14 points was as close as it ever got, as BG closed the deal and got the lead as high as 20 and won by 18.

First, the game was played at a slow pace for BG, at 68 possessions per game.  So, you need to filter all the game stats with that knowledge.  BG had a very good offensive game, scoring 1.21 points per possession.  That's second best this year, and BG had that efficiency only one in a MAC game last year.  It isn't hard to tell why.  BG's shooting equalled its shooting against Green Bay for season-best...BG was 57% from 2FG and 48% from 3.  They only shot better in one MAC game last year.

BG held OU to .93 points per possessions, which is a little more than at Kent but a winnable total.  BG is 15-1 over the last two years when opponents score .93 points per possession.  OU had average shooting, with 50% on 2 FG and 35% on 3FG.  Their turnovers weren't too bad.  However, much of their game has been built on offensive rebounds and getting to the line, and you can see here BG allowed neither to happen.  OU shot only 4 FTs, while BG was 9 of 11.

Individually, as noted, this was the night when the reserves ruled the floor, more or less.

Except Justin Turner.  Turner had kind of a quiet 20, 7 of 13 shooting and 2 of 4 from 3FG.  Also 3 assists and 2 steals.

Micheal Laster had 15 points.  He's a JUCO player who really seems to be finding his form at the point.  He shot 5 of 8 and 2 of 2, added 4 assists, 2 steals and 0 turnovers.  Todd Walker says it is 18 assists over 2 TOs in the last 5 games.

Antwon Lillard is hot.  He scored 13 on 5 of 8 and 3 of 5 shooting.

Dylan Frye also had 13, on 5 of 9 and 2 of 5 shooting.  He had 4 assists and 1 steal over 3 TOs.

Jeffrey Uju played a fantastic game filling in while Wiggins was ineffective.  He had 10 points on 5 of 6 shooting (5 of 5 from 2FG) and a team-high 6 rebounds.

Marlon Sierra didn't do a ton with the numbers, but he also played a huge role in the win.  In the second half, he guarded Jason Carter, who torched BG in the first half.  He had 14 first half points on 5 of 9 shooting and 4 of 4 from beyond the arc.  In the second, he shot 3 of 8 and 1 of 3 and looked exhausted when the game ended.  Exhausted.  That's going to go on tape and I think you will see teams try to make him work like Sierra did, because OU runs through him.  BG outscored them 52-33 in the second half, partly on Sierra's back.

Lastly, Daeqwon Plowden found his way onto ESPN with another poster block...

SHUT. IT. DOWN. 😤 #SCtop10 pic.twitter.com/HdlIJiH6ph

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 9, 2019

OK. We might have something here. One thing at a time. CMU is next in Mt. Pleasant, at 2-0 in MAC play.

Briggs on Huger

So, David Briggs has a nice column about Coach Huger today...kind of laying out his view that it is now or never for Huger.

Certainly, I think everyone felt like it was time to start seeing some things moving forward.  In a fourth season, you wanted to see the team be at least competitive...and, as Briggs notes, that isn't what it looked like after Cleveland State blew the Falcons out earlier in the year.

I'm certainly not looking for Huger to go.  The last thing we need to do is reboot again.  Best thing for the program is for Huger to deliver a program that competes every year.  Having said that, you can only move forward with that plan credibly if you are getting some proof of performance.

The last two games are certainly nice payments on that promise, but the deal is not done yet.

One quibble with Briggs.  He refers to the Chris Kingston "reign of error" which is funny, but I'm not sure it's fair as it goes for the Huger 6-year deal.  Most deals are 5 years, I understand that.  But whcn Huger came in, the program was in peril.  You didn't know how many guys you were bringing back and it was possible that it might be next to none of them.  Like, the 2010 4-28 UT season was in reach for the next year.

Given that, I think it can be argued that you give Huger that year in addition, because at the time he was standing at the podium, he could well have been inheriting an empty locker room.

OU Preview

All right, then.  OU comes to the Stroh Tuesday.  BG raised the stakes, in a big way, with a 22-point road win at Kent.  A 2-point road win would have been a statement.

Also, BG is on a streak they have not seen in a long time.  It has been 60 years since a streak of double-digit wins this long.  BG is 6-0 at home this year.  This is a tough conference and the team we want to be has to bring it every game like that.

OU is 8-5.  Their best win was over Marshall and their worst loss was South Florida.  They did lost to Purdue and Xavier and have 1 non-D1 win.

They opened with NIU at the Convo.  OU had a big lead in the first half and then NIU rallied and OU had to resort to some magical Xs and Os to send the game to OT, but NIU was clearly better in the overtime and won 72-66.

NIU is decent (#5 in MAC based on kenpom), but you don't want to lose that game at home, especially when you had a big lead in the first half.

OU has won 3 of the last 4 at the Stroh.  The last ten have been split evenly.

OU plays at a fast pace, event faster than BG.  Overall, they are struggling on offense.  That's the #291 ranked offense you see there.  Worst in the MAC.  They are, however, really good on defense--#3 in MAC and #79 in the country.  BG hasn't played a team that plays above average defense since the VCU game, so that will be interesting to see.

Looking at OU on offense first, their issue is in the first two factors.  They are poor at shooting and even worse at turning the ball over.  They don't try many 3s, which is good, because they are #318 at making them.  Their 2FG is 51.9%, which is OK but not good enough carry the offense.  This looks a little bit like a Louis Orr line.  Also, BG is #22 in the nation at defending the 2 FG.

They are good on the boards and at getting to the line, although their FT shooting is almost as bad as BG's.  In short, this appears to be a match-up that is good for BG.

On the defensive side, OU builds their defensive with all-around strength, not strength in any one area.  They are average defending the shot and forcing turnovers.  They are really good on the defensive boards...better than BG...and keep teams off the line at an average rate.  They are also pretty much average defending the 2FG and 3FG.  Honestly, I feel like their getting a better overall defensive output than you would expect, given these numbers.  They allowed .96 to NIU, right about their season average.

Their leading scorer is Jason Carter, at 17.3 PPG.  He's a 50% FG shooter and 6.8 rebounds per game.  He was all-Freshman two years ago and then missed almost all of last season with an injury.  He's 6'8 and just a really good player.

Next is Kirk Teyvion, scoring 16.4 PPG, a 46% FG shooting and 6.5 RPG.  He has 22 steals this year.  One downside to his game...I watched the NIU game and he's an awful FT shooter.  He's 6'4" and was all-Freshmen last year.

Their other double figure scorer is Ben Vander Plas, a 6'8" Euro-style F from Wisconsin.  He was redshirted last year due to an injury.  He is scoring 10.5 per game on 37% 3FG shooting.  He has by far their most attempts. 

Their leading rebounder is Doug Taylor at 8.8 per game.  He's a 6'9 Sr.

They are a relatively young team.

BG has played well at home, and you just want to see this be a W.  I hope we have a nice crowd and reward them with a nice home win and a 2-0 MAC start.

BG MBB Changes Conversation

One night in Kent, and it's a whole new way of looking at the season.  Of all the things I expected to see, I did not expect to see what actually happened.  BG had been playing well against poor opposition at home, but their last road games had been so bad, you just didn't know if they were going to be able to compete at Kent, a team with 2 P5 wins.  Maybe they could win.  You certainly didn't even imagine winning by 22.

And yet, that's what happened.  It was highly enjoyable.  I spent the entire game afraid to jinx the success BG was having.  But whereas in other situations BG has taken a big lead only to end up in a close game, the Falcons closed this one out.  BG outplayed a good Kent team for 40 minutes in their gym, and now they have to be viewed seriously in the MAC.

Of course, there's a game Tuesday, right?  Coach Huger said you could enjoy it on the road trip home, but you need to be back at work on Sunday morning.  And I don't say that in a "what have you done for me lately" sense.  I mean it to say that teams competing to be in the top of this conference string games like that together.

I am looking VERY forward to Tuesday.  Cannot wait.

Post-game, Coach Huger was obviously very happy.  Kent is a proven offensive producer and my preview said BG needed to defend really well to compete...not a genius observation, I know.  And they did.  BG played solid defense, Kent was off their rhythm and missed some open shots, BG managed Jaylin Walker.  Coach said BG played well for 40 minutes, kept the pressure on Kent.

It's probably the best game the Falcons have played since Coach Huger came back.

To get the magnitude of the win, let's see some quotes from Coach Senderhoff in the Record-Courier.

This is the worst loss I can remember being a part of, said KSU coach Rob Senderoff. We weren’t ready. That’s on me. We’ve got to get better. That’s the bottom line. 

...We’re not 11-2 anymore.  To me it was just a bad overall effort. That falls on my shoulders. I’ve got to do a better job getting us understanding what this conference is about. We’ve got to move on.

All right then.  When you're getting quotes like that out of your opponent, it had to be a good night.

BG went up 7-0 in 1:11.  For the last 24 minutes of the game, the lead was never within 10.  BG led by 14 at halftime and led by as much as 25 points in the 2nd half.  BG completely and totally outplayed Kent.  It was a night to remember.

BG had 1.17 points per possession, which is a monster game.  They eclipsed that total only once last year in MAC play, and that was against WMU.  They allowed .87 points per possession, a total they bettered only twice last year in MAC play.  And the two things came together on the same night.

Let's start with the defense.  As noted, Kent is a proficient 3FG shooting team.  They were the #83 team in the nation in offense, and #53 in 3FG shooting.  Against BG, they shot 29%.  They shot 47% from 2FG, which is below their already below-average track record.  They have been very good at taking care of the ball, but had a season high 22% turnovers against BG.  They are a good offensive rebounding team and they did well there.  Lastly, though, they came in very good at getting to the line and yet shot only 11 FTs against the Falcons.

I don't have data for this, but my observation is that BG is just much better on offense off a stop.  Even if there's no transition and we end up in a half court set, BG just seems to be more effective on offense off a defensive rebound or turnover.  BG had a great game on offense.  BG shot 55% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG.  Since the Cleveland State debacle, BG has shot at least D1 average in every game and usually better.

BG did have some turnover issues but was strong on the defensive boards.  The Falcons also only shot 11 FTs.

Individually, as you would expect, BG got contributions up and down the line.

Justin Turner is a beast.  Straight up.  As good a player as we have had here in a long time.  He scored 20 for the 8th time this year.  That's the most in the MAC.  And he doesn't do it pouring shots up.  He was 9 of 14 and 2-2 shooting, if that's something you might be interested in.  Also, 5 assists and 1 turnover.  He also did the majority of guarding on Jaylin Walker, who was essentially reduced to a non-factor.

Demajeo Wiggins, (or Demajo if you work on the Kent broadcast), had another big game.  He scored 19 on 8 of 14 shooting and 14 rebounds.  He made 3 of 4 from the line and SHOT A TECHNICAL FOUL for BG.  He's tied for first in double-doubles in the nation.  It is interesting.  He definitely impacts defensive spacing and sometimes does it without getting the ball.  Seems so much more effective than when BG used to force the ball into (for example) Calhoun, and then try to work off that.  Anyway, Wiggins is having a special year.

Dylan Frye?  Yes, Dylan is still struggling with his shot.  He had 12 on 4 of 13 and 2 of 7 shooting.  But the 2 3FGs he did make extended runs and he also had 4 assists and 2 turnovers, and he's on the court for all the defense, too.

Antwon Lillard is coming off the bench now and he's been super productive the last couple games.  He scored 14 points on 5 of 7 shooting and 3 of 4 shooting.  In 21 minutes.

Who else?  Michael Laster has 14 assists and 2 TOs over his last 4 games.  Coach said after the game that he's learning he doesn't have to shoot and score.  THIS TEAM needs him to distribute the ball and he's doing a great job.  In this game, he had 5 assists and no turnovers in 17 minutes.

Marlon Sierra?  Played 11 minutes, 2-3 and 1-1 shooting.  Solid presence.

Daeqwon Plowen had 4 points, 5 rebounds and a monster block and also just was a solid presence.  Similarly, Caleb Fields is still finding his shot as a true FR, but when's he's out there he's moving and moving the ball quickly.  He isn't afraid to shoot.  And, obviously, both of these guys were part of the big team D BG played.

Look.  I have a full and happy life.  I am blessed.  But it is crazy how good it makes me feel when my team plays like they did yesterday.  See you Tuesday.  Let's get people to the game.

MAC Season Begins at Kent

So, BG gets a real road test, right away.  They play @Kent on Saturday night.  They are 11-2 and are the best team BG has seen since leaving Richmond.  The Flashes won @Vanderbilt, and @Cleveland State (without Walker) and @Detroit, both teams that beat BG, and won @Oregon State.  Their losses are Liberty and Louisville, both top 100 teams.

FWIW, BG has won 2 of the last three at the MACC Center and the last 10 games between the two schools have been split evenly.

They are coached by Rob Senderhoff, who is now the winningest coach in program history, passing Jim McDonald, the longtime Bob Nichols assistant as well as BG grad and assistant.  Senderhoff has stayed longer than most Kent coaches, but I was shocked to see it. 

When looking at this game, the key matchup is how BG defends.  They have defended well at home against inferior opposition of late, but now have to show they can defend against a good team on the road. 

Kent is the #82 most efficient offense in D1 and for the year BG is nearly right on the D1 average.  BG is going to have to bring the energy on the defensive end for all the possessions.  If they do, history has shown that the team will make shots and take advantage of a below average Kent defense.  Note also that the Flashes play at 69 possessions per game, which is slower than BG and can most likely be adjusted with missed shots are rebounds.

What will that look like? Well, Kent shoots the ball well.  They are #53 in the country from 3FG, something that has caused BG problems in the past.  They try 41% of the FGs from 3, which is above the national average of 39%.  Their 2FG shooting is not great, at 49%.  So BG is going to need to defend that part of the Kent game.  The Flashes also take good care of the ball, and as you can see will provide an interesting battle on the offensive boards.  Lastly, they are top 50 in the country in getting to the line and make an excellent 73%.

BG is #23 in the nation in 2FG defense.

On the other side, Kent is not nearly as strong.  They are pretty much average on defending the shot and on creating turnovers, but poor on the defensive boards and in allowing FTs. They are very good at defending the 3FG and not so good at 2FGs.  

So, individually, you start with Jaylin Walker.  He is having himself a season.  He missed the first 5 games of the season due to a suspension for a university policy violation and is now scoring 24 points per game.  That would be #8 in the nation if he was eligible.  He's also making 52.3% of his 3FGs, which would be #3 in the nation.  He makes 88% of his FTs and averages 5 rpg.  Right now, he's a clear player of the year candidate.  By the way, he never starts.

Jalen Avery scores 13 ppg, but way less efficiently, shooting 36% and 34%.  He has 52 assists and a 5:1 A/T ratio.

JUCO transfer Antonio Williams is scoring 12 PPG on 48% and 44% shooting.  He also average 4 RPG.

Philip Whittington, a USC-Upstate transfer, is leading the team with 7.8 RPG.

Kent has been on the front end of the transfer movement.  They have 7 players who started their career at another institution of higher learning.

This is a very good test for BG.  Again, to win BG is going to need to play its best possible defense.

MAC MBB Reset

The pre-season is over.  Now, we make ready for the 18 game demolition derby known as MAC Basketball, in this case the men's version.

It was a highly productive 2018 for the MAC, which we will be able to see by reviewing the chart below.  This is a copy of the NCAA's data they use for making selections, which sounds super-secret and all, but you can just download it.

You might have heard that the NCAA ditched RPI....now they use NET...which works this way...

They are keeping the quadrant system as well, which rewards teams for winning games on the road.  To wit:

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

For example, if you beat the #55 team on the road, that's a QI game and if you played them at home its Q2. 

We review all this to look at how MAC teams did in the pre-season, but also to determine whether the MAC has a chance at an at-large bid. 

Second question first.  Does the MAC have a chance at an at-large bid?  The answer is yes.

Remember, that even though there are 68 teams in the Big Dance, you need a NET of 40 or so to even have a shot at the bid.  As you can see, Buffalo would be in and Toledo has a shot, especially if they can beat Buffalo, which would now be a Q1 win.

Problem is, the truly best chance for an at-large is for Buffalo to beat everyone in sight and then lose in the MAC final.  No different than when BG football kept NIU out of a major bowl bid.  Buffalo winning the tourney certainly makes the second bid less likely.

Buffalo is the only team in the MAC with multiple wins in all four quadrants.  They've played the conference's toughest schedule and they are 11-1. (Note that EMU technically has a tougher schedule, but the NET doesn't count non D-1 games, which is why they are 2-7.  Same with BG at 6-5.)

Anyway, Buffalo is clearly in line for a shot at a bid, if they can continue to win in the MAC.  Every game will matter for them.  The Rockets are also 11-1, albeit against a much weaker schedule.  They have 1 Q2 win and no Q1 wins, whereas Buffalo has 4.

Another note is that the MAC's odds would be strengthened by a top-heavy conference, which would create more Q2 games.  And the MAC is strong.  As you can see, Ball State and Kent are also in the top 100 and Akron and OU have chances to make moves, too.  A road win against either Kent or Ball State is a Q2 win right now.

Yet another note.  The MAC has done well winning the games it should win.  Only one team has lost more than 1 Q4 games, and that's WMU, the lowest ranked team in the conference.  The MAC is 18-15 in Q3.

Some years, the MAC only finishes with one top-100 team, so this is a year where there is going to be some significant competition.  It is far from a slam dunk that any one of them can run through that gauntlet and, in fact, it could just as easily turn into a circular firing squad and no at-large bid.

I think its's going to be a good year for MAC Hoops, MBB-style.  From a BG perspective, it's a little sobering, because we might be a little better but everyone else seems to be getting better at a faster pace.  For example, Miami.  

But maybe those fortunes will change, starting with a very tough assignment in Kent Saturday. 

Happy New Year to the Falcon Nation...

"Brothers and Sisters, let us begin anew.  For until today, we have done nothing."

---St. Francis