NIU Debacle

So, let's talk.

Over the last 52 minutes of play, BG's men have been beaten by a score of 128-73.  That's more than 1 point per minute over a span that long.

It is as poorly as I can recall us playing in quite a while.

And then you consider that these 52 minutes weren't against Ohio State and Michigan or even Buffalo and Toledo, but against Central Michigan and NIU, neither of which has a winning record in MAC play.  You should never lose like this within the conference, to anyone, but there you have it.

The game sent shockwaves through the Falcon Nation.  For most of the year, we've been hoping we were seeing the team that would start to turn the program around.  Maybe not this year--we are young--but soon.  I think fans had or have patience for Huger--one of our own, with a strong apprenticeship as an assistant coach.

Just a little doubt is creeping into that equation.  Here's the thing.  You have a young team, that's fine.  We have talent, but we're young.  Much like the football team, you'd just expect to be young and get better, not have your worst games 20 games into the year.  And you just start to wonder if this is actually going to turn around at all.

For the second straight game, Coach Huger said that some form of over-confidence was the reason for his team's poor play.  At CMU it was the big lead; with NIU it was the fact BG had just beaten them two weeks ago.  Either way, this is an explanation that is hard to listen to.  First, it would ascribe a level of delusion to this team that would normally require medication.  Second, even if it is true, it is as much on the coaches as on the players.  Coaches are supposed to have players ready to play and this team hasn't been--in a big way--for two straight games.

Of course, when you hear that, you think that maybe there's some else going on...something in the scheme or the training or the execution that is lacking.

I haven't lost complete faith in the program.  I still feel like it can be turned around.  But, you can't deny that doubt has begun to creep in.  You were willing to give Huger the issues with the team in the post-Jans years.  But you wonder if any progress has been made.

UT is next up and that promises to be a very tough assignment.  BG comes home to OU and Kent after that.  Those should be winnable games at home.  Obviously, you don't beat anyone playing this way, but it would be nice for the team to show some improvement and get a couple wins.  The fear is that you end up in a slide that your young team can't break out of.

Blade: Harris is Enrolled in School

#BGSU football: James Harris, who signed w/ #BGFalcons in December, has enrolled in school. He’ll take part in spring practice. Harris is a CB from Florida.

— John Wagner (@jwagnerblade) January 23, 2018

 So here's some news from John Wagner.  James Harris, who signed in December, is now enrolled and eligible for spring practice.  Harris is a CB, which is clearly a position we can use depth at.  Here's what BG said when he signed.

James Harris Jr. | Defensive Back | 6-1 | 165 | Pompano Beach, Fla. | Blanche Ely
Played three years of varsity football at Blanche Ely High School under head coach Calvin Davis ... Also lettered in track & field … Team MVP as a senior … 2016 Second Team All-Broward County … Son of James Harris and Kathlyn Rigby ... Born July 14, 2000 ... Plans to study psychology.

NIU Redux

So, BG gets a quick rematch with NIU, who they beat only 2 weeks ago at the Stroh.  So, not too much has changed since then, and here's the preview from that game.

Since the BG game, NIU beat EMU in DeKalb and then lost @Buffalo and @Akron.  They are 9-10 and 2-4, with only one home loss all season.

As you can see, the game at the Stroh was offensively challenged.  Shooting was pretty even and BG lost the turnover battle.  However, the Falcons kept a very physical NIU team off the offensive boards.  BG also made 80% of their FTS for a +6 advantage on its way to a 9-point win.

In the first game, Wiggins led the way for BG with a 15-15 double double.  Turner scored 14 and Frye 11, though they both had pretty poor shooting nights.  On the NIU side, Eugene German, who was all-freshman with Dylan Frye, scored 19 and Gairges Daow had 7 rebounds.

For this game, I don't think there's any mystery.  BG will be hard pressed to do THAT well on the boards again and both teams shot more poorly than they are used to.  NIU is also a very young team.  BG is hard to figure out.  I don't believe they will be able to get away with shooting 43% and turning the ball over 25% of the time.  The formula for winning has typically been shooting decently, protecting the ball, getting to the line and playing decent defense.  That's a little more sustainable. 

The other interesting issue will be to see if BG can bounce back from Saturday's disappointing collapse.  Best case:  they've been itching to get back onto the floor as soon as possible.  Worst case is a loss of confidence that could take some time to resolve.

Honoring the 1968 Basketball Champions

Really nice event at halftime of the BG game against CMU.  BG honored the 50th anniversary of BG's last NCAA tournament team and the last team to win the MAC Championship in its final form....as in regular season until the tournament started.

A few things.  First, it was awesome that so many of the guys came back after such a long time.  Even I'm not old enough to remember this team,  (although not by much).  It was just great that they came back for the day.

Second, I did not realize some of the long-term basketball success enjoyed by members of that team.  Of course, BG fans are well familiar with the success of Bill Fitch, who coached the team in his only year at BG and went on to be one of the 10 winningest coaches in NBA history.  (Also is top 10 in losses).  His video tribute was really cool.  He showed genuine enthusiasm and memories for his team and said he hoped to make it when BG gets another title.

I did not realize Bob Hill was on that team.  While not a great player at BG, he went on to win over 300 games as an NBA Coach.

And then there's Rich Walker, a highly successful player at BG and then a college coach, most notably at Florida International.

And then there's Al Hairston, who ended up as one of the most successful HS coaches in the state of Washington.

There was All-American Walt Piatkowski who played in the ABA.

Anyway, really nice event by BGSU and I felt like the fans really responded to the team.  As our old saying goes, Honor the Past, Create the Future.  Those guys are champions forever and Falcons forever.

Downard Leaving BG

#BGSU football: Safeties coach Ryan Downard has left to take a job w/ the Green Bay #Packers. Best wishes to @Coach_RDownard

— John Wagner (@jwagnerblade) January 22, 2018

Ryan Downard, BG's Safeties coach, has left the program to take a job with the Packers, according to John Wagner.  He was actually working for the Browns before heading to BG in a Chief of Staff/DFO role (before becoming a position coach) and now is headed back to the NFL.

This now creates three open defensive assistant positions.  The 10th assistant has been promised to Pelini, and then Downard and Mickens both have departed since the year ended.  Marcus White (D-line) and Matt Brock (LBs) are the only coaches remaining on defense.

Crushing MBB Loss

That one hurts.

You survive a first half where Wiggins is in foul trouble and plays only 2 minutes.  You come out hot in the second half.  With 12 minutes left, you are up 15, 64-49.

You've got to win that game.  At home?  You've got to win that game.  Apparently, and this comes from Coach, BG decided that they had the game won and let the foot off the gas.  As hard as that is to believe, especially given BG's track record of giving up leads, that's what he said happened.

And CMU took advantage, outscoring BG 35-11....35-11!!!!!....over that 12-minute stretch and BG went from winning by 15 to losing by 9 in a little over a quarter of the game.  You don't want to give up 35 points in 12 minutes and you don't want to score 11.  Together, its an epic collapse that just cannot happen.

I do think we have some pieces in place.  I do like the future.  However, for THIS year, this was a disaster.  BG had a chance to go to 4-2 in the conference.  Remember, BG has yet to play Buffalo or Toledo...or WMU or Ball State...this was a win you really needed.  Not that CMU is bad, but they are certainly near our level and we had them down by 15.

Ouch.

CMU had 1.16 points per possession, whcih is the best against BG in the MAC season.  BG scored 1.03 points per possession.  When you look at how the stats broke out, it was actually pretty even on 3 of the 4 measures.  The worse was turnover%.  BG spent most of the year taking really good care of the ball.  Now, they have been at 25% of possessions in 3 of the past 4 games.  The average for MAC games is 19% so far.

Some of the turnovers were caused by the CMU pressure and some weren't.  Some were inexperience based...BG had one possession with Plowden and Cummings trying to break it with predictable results.

If you look at the stats, Frye had 5, Wiggins 3, Caldwell 3, Lillard 2 and Plowden 2, and other guys with 1.  One thing that isn't measured is whether they were "live ball" turnovers or dead ball turnovers.  There seems to be an idea evolving that the live ball turnovers, which often result in run outs, are worse.  CMU had 10 steals, which is guanteed to be a live-ball TO.

CMU shot 21 FTs and BG shot 17.  CMU made 17 (81%) and BG made 13 (a very solid 77%) but CMU ended up +4 at the line.

All 5 BG starters ended up in double figures.  Caldwell led the team with 6 of 11 and 3 of 7 shooting, with the 3 treys coming in quick succession as BG drove to the lead in the early 2nd half.  He had 4 assists and 3 turnovers.

Wiggins had 13 on 5 of 7 shooting to go with 11 rebounds in 18 minutes.  That's pretty good.  Frye had 13 on 5 of 13 and 3 of 10 shooting to go with the aforementioned turnovers...that's a less efficient day.

Turner had 12 on 5 of 9 and 2 of 4 shooting and 5 rebounds.  Derek Koch had 11 points on 4 of 9 shooting and 5 rebounds in 25 minutes.

So, BG plays @NIU on Tuesday.  BG beat the Huskies at the Stroh and have a  tough week, heading to Savage to play the Rockets on Saturday.  Things get a little tougher, which is why losing this one will sting so much.  We are a young team, I get it.  Hopefully, this is part of "The Process."

CMU MBB Preview

So next up is CMU coming into BG.  This is a good opportunity for BG to show some strong play at home after the Miami win.  As I have mentioned, BG's early part of the MAC schedule has turned out to be a little soft, so there's every need to make hay on these games, especially at home.

CMU is 12-6, but they played an extremely soft schedule in the non-conference, ranked #339.  Their best win was Sam Houston State, #202 in the country. 

Meanwhile, they are 1-4 in the MAC, and a four-game losing streak.  They opened with a win over Ohio in Mt. Pleasant, and then they lost @Kent,  @EMU, Toledo and @Ball State.  As you will note, those four losses include 3 road games and two of the top teams in the MAC in Toledo and Ball State.  They lost their last 8 MAC games last year, so that's 12 out of 13 for the run.

CMU beat BG 82-76 last year in Mt. Pleasant.  They got 55 combined points from Rayson and Keene, both of whom are no longer with the Chips.   (Keene, the nation's leading scorer, left early and is playing pro ball in Italy).

So, we're looking at MAC only stats from here on in.  Much cleaner way to look at everything.  The MAC is the competition we are supposed to be able to beat.  We had plenty of issues with defense in the pre-season, but let's not lose sight of this:  BG is the top-ranked defense in the MAC, based on points per possession.  Meanwhile, CMU is the #4 offensive team, so that's going to be interesting.  The flip side is interesting for the opposite reason....BG is 9th in offense and CMU is 11th in defense.  When you see spreads like this, you normally have a good game.

So let's see how that battle will shape up.  The interesting part is on the boards.  BG is #1 on the defensive boards and CMU is #1 on the offensive boards.  That's going to be the key.  The other elements look pretty evenly matched.

Flipping around, remember, here is where both teams struggle.  CMU is the second easiest team to shoot against in the MAC.  BG is 7th in shooting.  CMU is weak on the boards, as is BG.  The key difference is something I talked about after the Miami game.  BG is #1 in the MAC in getting to the line and CMU actually gives up a lot of FTs, 3rd worst in the MAC.  If BG gets to the line and makes the shots, they are tough to beat.

Their leading scorer in MAC play is Shawn Roundtree, at a really shaky 14.4 PPG on 32% and 31% shooting.  That's very inefficient.  Their 2nd-leading scorer is Cecil Williams, a JUCO player who is 6'6".  He's scoring 14 PPG on 48% shooting.  He's also getting 6.4 RPG.

Their other double-figure scorer in MAC is David DiLeo, their leading returning player from last year.  He's scoring 11.4 PPG on a rough 36% and 32% shooting.

6'11" Luke Meyer and 6'5" G Kevin McKay both average 6.4 RPG.  McKay adds 3 assists per game.

CMU is going to come in hungry for a win.  I'm really looking forward to seeing how this one plays out.