NIU Preview

So, the beat goes on.  Next up, on the short turn around, are the NIU Huskies into the Stroh on Tuesday.  They are 8-7, with the second-lowest kenpom ranking in the MAC, but then again the lowest is Miami and they beat BG at the Stroh.  

The 8-7 includes 2 non-D1 wins.  In a common opponent, they beat Green Bay by 20 in DeKalb.  They are 1-1 in the MAC, with a home win over Kent (by 14) and a road loss to OU (by 10).  (Of the 12 MAC games so far, only 2 have been decided inside of 4 points or in OT).

Mark Montgomery, their coach, is in his 7th season, and has had only one winning record.  On the other hand, he was 10-51 in his first two years and the Huskies are now at least a .500 team, though picked to be near the bottom of the MAC.  They were bitten by the graduate transfer bug when Marin Maric left for DePaul, where he is scoring 14 PPG and getting about 6 boards.  (He was expected to leave early, but supposedly to go home to play in Croatia).

Anyway, they are a young team this year, though not as young as BG.

This game is pretty evenly matched.  NIU isn't terrible at anything and yet they don't have any real strong points either.  Let's look.

As you can see, they are an average offensive team and BG is just slightly below average after a couple of improved performances recently.  On the other hand, BG is now a below average offensive team and NIU is a considerably below average defensive team.

So, you just don't see teams matched like this.  NIU is basically right on the national averages all the way across that line and BG is right there with them.  One thing.  NIU is 2FG-focused.  Only 15 teams in D1 basketball take fewer 3FGs.  They are average at 35% when they do shoot a 3, and poor (48.5%) on 2FGs, given them an Orrian kind of profile.  They make 72% of their FTs and prefer a slower pace.

Things are a little more interesting on defense.  NIU is easy to shoot against, and that extends to 2FGs and 3FGs.  They do force some turnovers, They are OK on the offensive boards and they do a good job keeping teams off the line.  BG has been struggling to shoot--even in the EMU game--and this is an opportunity to make life easier by making shots again.

Their leading player is Eugene German, who was all-Freshmen last year.  He scores 19.5 PPG on pretty good 46% shooting, those he is a frequent and poor 3FG shooter (32%).  Junior Levi Bradley is their second-leading scorer.  He is 6'7" and scores 14.6 PPG but only shoots 43%,  and gets about 6.3 RPG.  JUCO transfer Dante Thorpe is scoring 12.7 PPG and is very efficient, shooting 61% and 50% from 3FG.

From BG's standpoint, a key issue is the availability of Dylan Frye.  Beyond that, this is a game that BG needs to get on home floor.

Falcons Get Small, Get Road Win

So, with 4 minutes left in the first half, things could not have been going worse for the BG Falcons.  They were down 24-13...that's right, 13 points in 16 minutes of college basketball.  The EMU zone had BG in fits and while EMU wasn't exactly lighting the scoreboard up on the other end, they were getting open looks and droppings 3s.

Meanwhile, BG was having foul trouble with their bigs.  So, Coach Huger said they went small out of necessity.  And playing with a four-guard lineup, BG finally broke out.  They closed the half with 16 points in the remaining 4 minutes and help EMU to 6, heading into the locker room down 1.

EMU came out of the locker room and jacked it back up to 6 points, but BG had another rally and with 5 minutes gone in the 2nd half the game was tied.  From there it was a dogfight, with no team leading by more than 4 points.  Minnie tied the game inside of 1 minute with a FT and then both teams traded pitiful last-minute possessions before overtime.

I did not know this, but Coach Huger has never lost in OT at BG.  He wasn't even behind in this one, as Matt Fox opened the scoring with a 3.  There wasn't a ton of scoring, and then with 90 seconds left Lillard score a hoop to put BG up 3 and then BG made 4 of 6 free throws in the last minute to close out the 75-71 overtime win.

It was an important win.  Not to make EMU out like the best team in the MAC, but after losing to Miami BG needed to get back on track before they dug a hole that would be very difficult to get out of.  Through the first 16 minutes they literally could not have been playing worse, but they got it together and ground it out and ended up with a win they kind of needed, not to make the 2nd game of the season too dramatic or anything.

As mentioned, they did it with a four-guard lineup that did not include Dylan Frye, who is injured but apparently not seriously.  But Antwon Lillard had a huge game and Matt Fox was nailing shots left and right and Justin Turner had his turns and BG got the win and for most of the first half, that had seemed like the most unlikely thing possible.

It certainly wasn't an offensive slugfest.  BG had .98 points per possession and held EMU to point .93.  Neither is very good, but BG made enough shots to get the win.

These are the stats of a pretty close game.  The teams were equal in shooting and no one did much on the offensive boards, a victory for BG since EMU relies on that and we were playing a small lineup.  BG got a couple of extra possessions due to turnovers and EMU was +3 on FTs for the game.

BG had 2 double-doubles.  Lillard had 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting and 12 rebounds and 5 assists and 2 turnovers.  Wiggins scored 15 points on 6 of 13 shooting and added 11 rebounds....and held James Thompson to one offensive rebound.  Matt Fox had 18 on 6 of 10 shooting from 3, and Turner had 15 on 4 of 8 shooting.    While he had a rough night shooting, Rodrick Caldwell had 6 assists and 0 turnovers.

When it is said BG went small, they went small.  Wiggins played 36 minutes, but Koch played 10, Uju 5 and Gadson 3.    That's a small lineup.

BG has a decent shot now to make it 2 in a row, with NIU coming to town, probably the next most likely team for BG to beat this year....at least on paper.

EMU MBB Preview

BG will head north Saturday to take on the EMU Eagles.  This is always a hard team to figure early in the year, because they play an incredibly weak pre-season schedule.  This year, it included 4 non D1 games.  Rob Murphy is in his 7th year in Ypsi and while there was some minor success early on, they have had a .500 or less record in MAC play the last three years.

To that point, their reputation is playing super-tough defense out of a 2-3 Syracuse zone.  Early in the Murphy regime they did play great defense, but the last three years they have been pretty much average in the MAC.

They are 9-5 overall and 5-5 in D1 games.  Their best win has been at home against Oakland, and their losses include @Syracuse, @Indiana and @Ball State.  In fact, they also lost @Oakland.

They destroyed BG at the Stroh last year, by 28.  The year before BG won in Ypsi.  EMU is undefeated at home this year.

So, here you have the season averages for both teams.  As noted after the Miami game, BG's offense has been struggling over the past few games, so this may or may not be representative of what will be seen on Saturday.  Anyway, based on this BG and EMU are pretty evenly matched.  On the other hand, if BG's opponents continue to overshoot their season average against the Falcons, EMU will have an easy day.  BG did play USC-Upstate earlier this year and they play a similar zone, which could help the Falcons.

This is pretty much would you would expect to see.  An EFG of 51% is slightly above the D1 average.  The teams are pretty evenly matched down the line.  EMU tends to rebound well on the offensive boards, and after the success Miami had on the boards this is something BG will need to buckle down on.

Their focus is on getting the ball inside.  They are 304th in the nation at taking 3s, and 260th at making them.  They are making 51% of their 2FGs, which is considerably better than the national average.  They are not a great FT shooting team.

So, when BG has the ball, there are some interesting points.  As you can see, EMU is allowing about average FG shooting, but BG is slightly below with its shooting.  BG does take good care of the ball, and EMU does force some turnovers, so BG will have to continue to excel there.  Like most zone teams, EMU is not great on the defensive boards.

Individually, we all know about James Thompson IV, the 6'10 post player who is a two-time All-MAC player and is only a junior.  He continues to fill a stats line as well as anyone, averaging 16 PPG on 66% shooting and adding 11.5 RPG.  They have added 6'9" F Elijah Minnie, who is a transfer from Robert Morris.  He is scoring 17 PPG, shooting 45% overall.  He's more a stretch 4, leads the team in 3FG attempts (makes only 33%) and adds 6.1 RPG.

Their second leading scorer is Paul Jackson, a transfer from Eastern Kentucky. He's scoring an inefficient 16 PPG on 44% shooting, but does add 4.6 assists per game.

BG's certainly the underdog in this one, but it isn't something that can't be done.  It would be great to see the Falcons get back on serve with a road win.  We remain a young team, but I think we are better than we played Tuesday.

Milton to Return for One More Season

Bowling Green safety Marcus Milton was granted another year of eligibility. Huge for BG’s depth in 2018. NCAA had deemed him out of eligibility at the end of last season.

— Thomas Schmeltz (@Thomas_Schmeltz) January 4, 2018

This out yesterday from Thomas Schmeltz of the Sentinel.  As noted, this is big for BG, which needs every body on the defensive side of the ball that they can find, especially one with some playing experience.  Plus, he gets to do senior day twice.

Falcon Men Dig Quick Hole

The MAC Season opened on Tuesday and BG had a game that it needed to win right away on the schedule.  Not that Miami should have been easy to beat, but they are a team that is also very young, has struggled in the pre-season and it was a home game for BG.  If you have any hopes of making a home berth for the tournament (a reasonable accomplishment for this year), you need this win and it is first on the schedule.

And we did not get it.  The RedHawks won 77-72.  BG was the only home to lose on Tuesday in the MAC.  Beyond that, Miami was the better team for most of the game.  BG did jump out to a 7-0 lead, but the game was tied again with 11 left in the first half.  Miami took the lead with 8 minutes left in the half and except for two possessions, led the entire remainder of the game.  They led by 5 at the half and scored the first 8 points of the second half to go up 13.  BG battled back to get it as close as 2 at one point and 3 a few others, but down the stretch BG went cold at the FT line and the RedHawks outran the Falcons to the finish line.

So, here's the thing.  BG is just woeful on defense.  They just don't consistently guard anyone.  Dribble penetration is a real problem.  Miami's PG got to the paint at will and once BG's man defense breaks down, the ball eventually finds an open shooter.  Miami had 1.037 points per possession, which is actually right on the national average, but they came into the game averaging only .92 points per possession, so once again a team found its shot against us.  They shot well 53% overall, which is well above the national average, but turned the ball over a lot.  They were much stronger on the offensive boards than BG was.  It was their second-best D1 game of the season.

Meanwhile, BG has hit an offensive slump.  Since the Evansville game, BG has been under 1 point per possession in three straight D1 games.  In this one, they hit .97, which isn't awful but isn't the formula BG used to win some games.  BG hit 37% from 3FG, which is about national averge, but missed a ton of shots near the basket and shot only 42% on 2FGs.

The other issue was FTs.  BG gets to the line and has been one of the stronger teams in the MAC at the line to date.  BG actually got to the line a little more than Miami, but was 11-21 while the RedHawks were 14 of 18.

Demajeo Wiggins had the most points for BG, with 15 on 7 of 10 shooting plus 4 out of 5 at the line.  He had only 5 rebounds and seemed to have a few mishaps defensively.  Antwon Lillard had his best offensive game of the year, with 15 points on 6 of 11 shooting and 5 rebounds, but at one point was pulled over the floor due to defense.  Daeqwon Plowden had 11 off the bench with 2 3FGs and one poster dunk.  Justin Turner had a rough 10, on 4 of 15 shooting.  Frye was scoreless and turned an ankle, Caldwell had 6 on 2 of 8 shooting and missed all three of his FTs (in addition to the issues guarding the Miami PG) along with 3 assists and 3 turnovers.

BG plays three of the next four on the road.  The home game is next Tuesday against NIU, the second most winnable game on paper for BG.  MAC play is tough.  No weaknesses hide very long.  BG is capable of playing better than they did on Tuesday, and they need to find that way back.  Next one is tough, at EMU and their 2-3 Syracuse zone.

RedHawk Preview

And so here we go.

This is an interesting assignment for BG.  Looking at the whole schedule right now, this is the one we would be most favored to win.  So, that's good if you get off to a good start, but does kind of put some pressure on the first game, because you don't want to start with this one as a loss.

Miami has a new coach.  Their new coach is Jack Owen, who came over from Purdue.  The program has not recovered since the Charlie Coles finish.  This is unusual...Miami is a historic MAC power, so I'd expect that Owen will get them rebuilt.  He was Matt Painter's top assistant for 9 years and he's a great match for Miami.

In the meantime, though, it doesn't happen in one year.  Also, you'll remember that the All-MAC Freshmen Michael Weathers transferred to Oklahoma State and his twin transferred to Duquesne.  Both teams are very young.  Miami is the #314 youngest team and BG is #341.

Miami is 7-6 with 2 non D-1 wins.  Their best win was over Fort Wayne in Oxford and they lost to Hartford on a neutral floor for their worst loss.  They are ranked #274 as of 12/31.  They have won twice on the road this year.

So here's how the game shapes up overall.  Tempo will be a big deal.  BG is going at 75 possessions a game and Miami at 67.  If BG can get stops then they can push the tempo.

Let's talk about that.

As we have seen before, BG is a team that struggles to get stops playing against a team that struggles to put the ball in the basket.  Generally, teams have found themselves able to score on the Falcons, with the exception of the Green Bay game.  The boys have had some quality practice time, so hopefully our young guys will continue to play better defense.  BG has had an effective offense and Miami's defense has been about the same.  The NCAA average to date is 1.035 points per possession.

These are the numbers of teams that are struggling.  As you would expect from a team that lost their PG, the RedHawks are one of the 20 worst teams in D1 at taking care of the ball.  They also don't get to the line.  Their shooting is poor as well and they are about average on the boards.  (Actually, it is pretty interesting.  BG is #274 in overall defense, but except for turnovers, they are at or above the national average).

The key issue for Miami is that they are #44 in trying 3FGs but #258 in making them.  Hopefully, they don't find the mark against BG's 3FG defense, which is right at the national average.  The RedHawks are also below average on 2FGs.

As noted, things are different when you have BG has the ball.  Miami is very good on the boards, which you would expect and they don't let teams get to the line.  Also, they do force some turnovers and BG has been very good on that front.  I'd say those two areas will be the key flash points.  Note that BG's EFG% has been falling and is now below average for D1.

Miami features one double figure scorer.  Nike Sibandie.  He's a true FR from Indianapolis.  He scores 14 PPG but on 43% and 35% shooting.  Their PG is Darrian Ringo, a JUCO transfer with 7.9 assists per game.  That's #4 overall in D1 and that's for a low-possession team.  Tempo-free he is #2 in the country.  He is also #3 in the nation in steal %.

Logan McLane at 9.6PPG and 52% shooting and 6.2 RPG (he's a senior) and true FR Jalen Adaway is scoring 9.4 PPG on 54% shooting and 5.8 RPG game.

One last factor in this one.  Miami played at OSU on Saturday, so they had a quicker turnaround than BG, who have not played a competitive game since they were in Green Bay.

Happy New Year to the Falcon Nation...

Happy New Year to the Falcon Nation...this is a natural day for reflection and re-energizing.

Truthfully, nothing stops us from doing this every day, so maybe that's a good goal for 2018.  Let the success and failure of the past go...as St. Francis said, " Let us begin again for until now we have done nothing."