Football depth chart for spring ball released

And so here it is. The football depth chart set for the start of spring football at BG.  This is always a good feeling...as we get a chance to look ahead at what the program has to offer for the Fall.

A few observations.

There was some shuffling on the o-line but no huge surprises.  You have rock-solid Tim McAuliffe in the middle with Labus and Hunter at the tackles, as was probably expected.  Taborn, who played T last year due to injuries, is moving into G and Jack Kramer was a backup G and is now up to the starter.  Beyond that, we need to keep good hope for health.  BG has three backups who have never played a down and one (Lucke) who has played in only one game.  Clark Clancy is the one backup with any kind of playing experience.  So, BG needs to stay healthy and know that the line next year will be very young.

At QB, James Morgan is the starter, as expected.  The backups are undetermined. You have walk-on Loy, Elijah Cunningham who red-shirted and Jarrett Doege, who is a FR early enrollee.  It matters how this one sorts out.  Most teams need a backup QB at some point in a year.  I have a feeling it might end up being Doege in the 2-hole, but that's just a guess.

At WR, you have Redding, Zimmerman, Pough and Miller, which represents no surprise.  Also offers no real outside deep threat.  The backups include Matt Wilcox (early enrollee) and Darin Guyton, a transfer who was once at Oregon State.  Phoutavong and Folkerstma round out the WR Corps.  If I had to guess, I'd say Guyton will start to steal reps pretty quickly with his size and speed.

Lastly, Cleveland and Wilson will split time at RB.  Both are seniors.

On the defensive line, it is important to remember that this is all a rotation, so really the whole two-deep gets PT.  Dirion Hutchins and Nico Lautenan are moving into the rotation.  Lautenan has played some....9 games last year as a R-FR.  In general, defensive line is stable for us heading into Spring.

At LB....well, BG might never have lost two more key LBs in the same year as they did with Austin Valdez and Trent Greene.  Nate Locke will slide in at MLB.  He's got quite a bit of time under his belt with 39 games played.  Aaron Banks will take the other spot.  He's a R-SR who has played some but not much.  He made 3 tackles last year.  His backup is KY transfer Dorian Hendrix and the backup in the middle is Jerry Judd, a R-FR in his first game.  The other LB is stable, with Brandon Harris and Nillijah Ballew, both converted DBs.

Speaking of which, in the d-backfield BG has Cam Jeffries and Robert Jackson in the first spot at corner.  Both of those young men got some duress-laden reps at true freshmen last year.  Marcus Milton is one of the backups...he got a number of snaps last year...and then the other CB is Clint Stephens, who is coming back from injury and will be important if he can get healthy.

BG was decimated at S, between injuries and now graduation.  Jamari Bozeman and Jerry McBride will begin the spring as the starters...both of them also had a growing year during 2016.  The backups are Tavarous Wade and JUCO Fred Garth.  Missing from the depth chart are Antonyo Sotolango, who played quite a bit last year, as well as Ben Hale and Jack Walz, both of whom were injured but remain listed on the roster.  So, conceivably there is the possibility of additional depth as well.

The special teams come back pretty intact.  Jake Suder is the K.  I don't know if BG has any preferred walk-on kickers, but those would not show up until July.  Joe Davidson is back.  We have a new long snapper, this is Gabe Skrobot.  KRs appear to be pretty much the same.

So that's how things look.  BG needs a healthy offensive line and for the D-backs to continue to get better...to begin with.  And, the offense needs some WRs to step up and become playmakers in order to get things in gear.  Spring ball is a comin'.

Catching up with football,...

Other than the Austin Valdez news, BG has a couple more news flashes on the football front which we can sneak in here before the UT-BG game tomorrow.

The big one is the release of the schedule.  There's no way to overstate this for Falcon fans, who are hungry to see the program rebound next year...a really good record is going to be tough with this schedule.  BG could have a good year at 6-6.

There are 2 P5 programs on the schedule.  Also, BG plays at a very good Middle Tennessee State program.  Yes, there is an FCS team, but there are also only 5 home games overall.  More on that in a minute.

Here is the way it breaks out.

@MSU
South Dakota
@Northwestern
@Middle Tennesee
Akron
@Miami
OU
NIU
@Kent
@Buffalo
UT
@EMU

So, let's say you lose the 3 non-conferences games.  You still have to play UT, @Miami and @EMU, the last 2 of whom have returned to our rotation just as their programs have been rebuilt.  And, after that, you still have OU, NIU...so for example, a 6-win season might look like SD, Akron, OU, NIU, @Kent and @Buffalo.  The 7th win would need to be (for example), UT, @Miami or @EMU.  If BG gets 7 wins they would be 6-2 in the MAC and possibly in the MAC title game.

And if BG ends up there, I think we can start to think we have some guys who can coach.  A continuation of last year?  BG could be as poor as 3-9/4-8 again easily.

Now, as for the lack of home games...it is very disappointing.  I love to be at the Doyt and I love our home games.  A while ago we had an AD committing to having 6 home games, which by definition means more home and homes with mid-majors.  I just don't think that's realistic for us for financial reasons.  I have posted here time and again about the level of subsidy our athletic program gets from the students at BG.  It is among the lowest in the MAC and still too high.  I just think the athletic department needs the football team to play those two games and cash the checks from, this year, MSU and Northwestern.

It is just one of the contradictions of playing football at this level.  We strain to keep the house up while the neighbors are putting additions on and buying vacation homes.  And sometimes we still beat them.

It is too bad, but it is a reality of how we roll right now.

The other snippet of news is that BG has a commit from Ricardo Marble.  He's a '17 commit.  I am assuming he's a preferred walk on, who the Falcons can't comment on until they start classes.  He is from Detroit, he was a QB at De La Salle Collegiate HS.  There's not a ton of info on him, my guess is that we view him as a DB.  He is 6'2".

The spring game is April 8.

Third Time for Rockets and Falcons....

So here we go.  Could be the final outing for the Falcons this year.  Last year, they salvaged a rough year with a tourney run.  Such a thing would be great this year...and, for that matter, all the better because who it would entail beating...UT.

BG and UT split the games this year, both winning at home.  In the first game, UT pretty much cruised to the win, 85-73 and not as close as that.  BG won the game at the Stroh in what was an operatic double OT thriller before BG ended up breaking a six-game losing streak to UT.

UT has to be disappointed with the results they are getting.  Their 2014 probably should have won the MAC--but got blown out by WMU in the final.  They are 17-19 in the MAC over the last 2 years.  Kowalcyzk had a bunch of really good players and transfers at the beginning, but hasn't been able to sustain it and didn't get the big win he needed to land a bigger job.  This year, they were hampered by an injury to Zach Garber, one of their big men, and then needing to dismiss jUCO transfer Daniel Dzierzawski.  They have good players, but have had only an average season.

So, below are the stats from game 1 and game 2 between the two teams.  UT is the best shooting team in the MAC and BG is the worst team defending the shot.  So, it is no surprise that in both games UT shot very well and pretty much the same.  The thing is, UT is not as good on defense--#6 overall and defending the shot.  BG is 11th in shooting...so you got what you pretty much would expect in game 1.  In game 2, BG made shots out the ass.  That's their best shooting game of the year...and the next best was 60% EFG against Norfolk State,  the #304 team in the nation.

So, you want something to start with?  BG will need to make some shots.  The other difference (major) between the two games was free throws.  In the first game, UT was 18 of 31 and BG only 8 of 12 at the line.  In the second game, BG was 21 of 32 and UT was 14-24.  The Rockets shot FTs poorly in both games, partly by BG's hack-a-Taylor strategy.  He was 4 of 19 in both games.

So, if you want a formula to win, it is going to need to involve making some shots.  As Coach said after Buffalo, BG just tends to miss a lot of open shots and this has been a problem for the program for a long time.  BG hasn't finished higher than 9th in the MAC in shooting since 2012, when they were 5th.  You can talk about defense all you like, but I still contend that the program has not recruited enough offensive playmakers.

UT is led by Jonathan Williams and Steve Taylor--both seniors.  Also, Nate Navigato rarely misses a shot against BG.  Jaelen Sanford is also a SO and an excellent player.  Overall, this UT team is less than the sum of its parts.  Kenpom gives them an 82% probability of winning this game and you're going to need to see the Falcons bring their very best effort--on the road--to get this win.

Regular Season Ends on Loss

And this is where it all ended up.   With last night's loss to Buffalo, BG finished in the #10 spot, about where they were predicted to be.  They play Toledo on Monday and then OU at the Q if they win that one.  The Falcons finish 7-11 in the MAC, which is a modest two-game improvement over Huger's first year.  More on the future in another post.

The game in Buffalo was never a contest.  The Bulls bolted out to a 13-2 lead and led by as much as 16 in the first half.  BG got it back to 8 at halftime and 6 early in the 2nd half, but the Bulls spent the first minutes of the second half doing nothing but burying 3FGs and they led by 15 with 17 left in the game.  They maintained at least a 10-point lead the remainder of the way and led by as much as 20 points.

BG tried a lot of things to shake the effort up.  For one thing, Dylan Frye ran the point.  Antwon Lillard played 30 minutes.  BG trapped and pressed.  BG hounded Hamilton.  None of it, especially the last one, accomplished anything.

When you see a shooting differential like that, you can tell exactly the story of the game.  Buffalo shot well....not great...but well.  BG shot awful, that's 40% on 2FG and 29% on 3FG.  Coach Huger identified this after the game.  BG was getting good looks and missing the shots.  That included jumpers and layups.  The only game all year in MAC play where BG shot worse was the EMU game.  BG did a little better on turnovers and did a nice job on the boards and got to the line...taking 32 FTs to UB's 15...but BG made only 18 of those 32.

So, yeah, the weaknesses for BG came in the parts of the game where a team needs to put the ball inside of the rim.  Which is important.

Zack Denny led BG with 16 points, but on 5 of 14 shooting.   He also had 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.  Frye had 11 on 4 of 10 shooting, Caldwell 11 on 4 of 7 shooting (and only 14 minutes) and Lillard 10 on 4 of 7 shooting.  Wiggins, who I fear is being exposed as a defensive liability, played only 18 minutes with 9 points and 9 rebounds.  Worrell shot 2 of 7 as well.

So, on to the Rockets.  Last year, BG made a run in the MAC tournament.  This will be a tough one, but you never know.  The Falcons have episodically been capable of strong play, but not capable of consistent success.

Valdez to Transfer from BG Football

Thank you for everything BG. pic.twitter.com/v2T85fPtmE

— Austin Valdez (@AValdez01) March 2, 2017

So, bad news for the BG Football program, as starting MLB Austin Valdez has decided to graduate and be a 5th-year transfer elsewhere in college football.

This is a difficult blow.  The defense had enough issues as it was last year and this just makes it more difficult for a team that has a very tough schedule and is attempting to claw its way back to respectability with question marks in the program leadership.

Trent Greene also left, so BG has pretty big gaps at LB to fill.  The heir apparent would be Nate Locke, who has been in the rotation for a couple years but has never had to carry the burden on his own.  Valdez was hurt much of last year, so there was PT for the next level of players.  BG returns 6 starters on defense.

I wish Valdez the best.  It is his life and he has to do what is right for him.  I don't like the graduate transfer rule, but it exists and he should be able to go to school where he wants.  Coaches get to go when they want, I get to go where i want, it seems reasonable that a player could do something like this too.

He was a great Falcon.  First-team All-MAC as a junior on a championship team, 222 total career tackles and 13 TFL.  He played in 37 games total over his 3 playing seasons.

So, best of luck Austin.  You're always a champion in BG.

Season Finale Preview

So we have reached the end of the road....at least the regular season road.  As always seems to be the case, the Falcons will wrap things up in Buffalo in a meaningful game...for both teams, but more for the Bulls, who can work their way into a bye, which is huge.  BG needs three things to happen to get a home game, one of which is to beat UB.

UB is good and playing well.  And, of course, they are the two-time defending champion.  I think there are 3 teams that could win the MAC next week at the Q, and those are Akron, UB and Kent.  I don't see it being OU, but I guess they could be the 4th.

They are 10-7 in MAC play after a 3-5 start.  They had a little bump when they lost at home to Kent and Akron, but then they rallied to beat OU in Athens on Tuesday night.

They beat BG pretty handily at the Stroh earlier this year.  The game was close into the second half, but then the Bulls went on a 16-2 run and blew the lead open and had cruised to the win.  The basic storyline was the UB pounded the ball inside relentlessly and effectively and BG was unable to get the ball anywhere near the hoop.  Buffalo is just tougher and stronger than BG---or they were that day.  As you can see, BG shot the ball a little bit above league average, but UB shot it through the roof.  It was the worst defensive game for BG up to that time and has been since been eclipsed by the 2nd OU game.  UB had trouble taking care of the ball, which kept the game close, but they ended up shooting a bunch of FTs, too.

Looking at the season, we see UB and BG pretty much produce the same amount on both ends of the court.  The Bulls are a defensive team, mostly.  They are #2 in the MAC in defensive efficiency and #7 in offensive efficiency.  BG, as we know, is 10th in offense and 11th in defense.

Same pattern is here.   BG is a poor offensive team and UB a good defensive team, so things are pretty much equal in terms of what to expect.  They are very good at defending the shot and on the offensive boards and they are just OK at forcing turnovers.  They do give up a lot of FTs, 11th in the MAC.  As noted from the first game, Buffalo is #2 in the MAC in defending the 2FG.

As usual, BG allows higher shooting than their opponents come in with.  However, in this case, the spread is not as large as it often is.  UB is only #7 in the MAC in shooting.  They also are 8th in turnovers....but 2nd in offensive rebounds and 5th in getting to the FT line...but only 8th in making FTs.  They are 8th in 3FG and 5th in 2FGs.  They are just a good but not great offensive team.  They certainly looked like a great one in the first game, so let's hope that doesn't happen again.

They are led by Blake Hamilton, who is a first-team All-MAC player in my book.  He is scoring 16.9 PPG, 6 RPG and 5 APG.  He isn't terribly efficient, shooting 42%, but he's a very good player.  CJ Massinburg scores 14.6 PPG on 43% shooting and 6 RPG.  Willie Conner is scoring 12 PPG on 42% shooting. Nick Perkins has 11.7 PPG on 42% shooting.  Basically, UB's best players are not great shooters.  Also, in game 1 Dontay Caruthers had a huge game as well.

So, the regular season comes to an end Friday.  BG has pretty much been as expected...maybe just a TICK better.  A win Friday certainly changes that.  And, of course, there's the tournament.

Quick Kent Summary, BG Reset

Won't have much of an update on the Kent game.  I was out of town again and literally heard not a moment of it.  It was senior day for Ali, Denny and Alcegaire, and they each scored in double figures.  More on those guys later.  BG had a shot to win the game.  They were down 1 with the ball with a minute left, but got the stop when they needed it and then went on a 6-0 run in the last minute to wrap the game up.  On balance, it looks on paper to be a solid effort for BG that just came up short against a team that is playing really well.

So, let's reset.  There are 5 teams in the MAC currently at 10-7 and they all play at home on Friday.  Only 3 of them are going to get a bye.  There are like a million permutations of all that which I am sure has been analyzed elsewhere.

So, BG needs 3 things to happen to get a home berth.  They need to win @UB.  Also, EMU would have to lose at home to Toledo and NIU would have to lose @BSU.  All three things have to happen.

That's going to be a tall order.  The hardest will be the Buffalo win, frankly.  The Bulls are playing well, won at the Stroh and have a lot to play for on their senior day.  It certainly isn't impossible, and BG is playing better, but it is going to be difficult.  If that happens, you gotta think NIU will lose @Ball State, and who knows about EMU and Toledo, they are both unpredictable.  Certainly, UT could win.

There is a chance BG could play UT in a rubber match in the first round of the tournament.