Monday, February 06, 2017

Flash Next

So, riding as high as they have in two years, BG now heads into one of the toughest places to win in the MAC...which is, HA, the MAC Center in Kent, Ohio.  But seriously, this is historically a tough place to win.  Now, this isn't the greatest Kent team.  In fact, after years of being the MAC's signature program, they are now located firmly in the middle of the conference.  They are 13-10 overall and 5-5 in the MAC.

They are playing well.  They lost 4 out of 5 coming out of the box in the MAC but have won 4 out of 5 since then.  That includes at 24-point win over Toledo to go with wins @EMU, @NIU and @Miami.  Their only loss in the five games was at home to CMU, 100-90.

BG won its last game against Kent--in last year's MAC tournament in Kent--and has won two of the last 3 on the road against the Flashes.

The numbers below are for the MAC season as a whole.  These numbers show a slightly below average offensive team (#8) and a slightly above defensive team (#5).  (Interesting to note that the MAC is the #3 offensive conference in college basketball, based on offensive efficiency as noted on kenpom.com.)  Anyway, the key things is that in this five-game run where they have been winning, they have been playing much better defense, holding the teams in all the wins under 1 point per possessions.




To BG's advantage, Kent is not a great shooting team.  The Falcons remain 11th in the MAC in guarding the shot and have struggled in the last 3 games big time.  The Flashes are 8th in shooting.    Their weakest area is turnovers...they are #11 in the MAC in turning the ball over.  However, they are leading the MAC in offensive rebounding percentage, while will put pressure on the Falcons.  They 8th in the MAC in getting to the line but 4th in FT shooting.

They are a very typical 3-shooting team.  They are 7th in the MAC in the number of 3s taken and 7th in percentage made.  They are 9th in the MAC in 2 FG%.



Now, when looking at the Kent defense. we see a team that is 5th defending the shot going against the worst FG shooting team in the MAC, even after the UT game.  They are also 5th in creating turnovers and 8th in protecting the boards and free throw rate.  They have been especially good in their little four-game run, holding the opponents in all their wins to 47% or under (or, below BG's last-place season percentage) and under 42% in 3 of the wins.  This is going to be the challenge for BG.  They scored against a UT team that is poor defensively, but can they score enough (and play better defense) in this game in order to get a third straight MAC win for the first time in the Huger era.



Individually, the Flashes offer two-time All-MAC first team forward Jimmy Hall.  He averages a double-double, with 18.5 ppg and 10.8 PPG.  He shoots 50% (good but not incredible for a big man) and averages 2.6 assists per game.  Thankfully, after this year we are done with him.  If you saw what Taylor and Johnson have done to BG....this is a similar challenge.  He's less of a body overall but he's a better player, probably.

Their second leading scorer is Jaylin Walker, a 6'1"G from Romulus MI who has apparently declared himself an apostate to Nate Oates.  Walker is very good.  He has moved in and out of the starting lineup but averages 14.4 PPG.  He shoots a lot.  He shoots 38% overall and 33% on 3FGs.  He also averages less than an assist per game.

The last double-figure scorer is Deon Edwin.  He's a 6'3" SR who was a JUCO transfer.  He scores 13 PPG on 48% shooting and 37% from 3FG.

Kent plays a deep rotation, essentially playing 10 guys for at least 10 minutes per game.

So, on we go.  To win, BG has to rally emotionally and bring enough intensity to compete with the Flashes.  It won't be easy, but if BG can build on the UT game and play with confidence, Kent is far from unbeatable, even if they are playing well.

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Falcons Break Streak, beat Rockets in Classic. Part II

So how did it happen?  How did BG end up with the win over the Rockets in Saturday's thriller?

Well, the first thing you can see is that BG shot the ball very well.  That's their best shooting in a Division I game since 2012.  That's better than they shot this year against Alabama A&M (the worst team in D1 basketball), Norfolk State, Morgan State....you get the idea.

Our preview had noted that UT is a poor defensive team but cast doubt on whether BG had the horsepower to exploit it.  Turns out we did.

BG shot 59% overall and 75% from 3FG. Perhaps the key to the whole thing was that BG tried on 12 3FGs in 50 minutes.  They committed to getting to the rim and it worked.  BG made 55% of their 2FGs.  (The Falcons were also 8 of 10 shooting in the overtime periods).

It's a good thing.  Because the Rockets also shot the lights out, making 51% of their 2FGs and 50% of their 3FGs...and they tried 28 3FGs.  (The shooting defense for BG is an ongoing concern.  BG has allowed over 65% EFG% in its last three games and in 6 of their 10 MAC games.)

Overall, BG had 1.28 points per possession and UT had 1.23.  As you can see below, BG took better care of the ball, with a +5 advantage in turnovers.  And BG took advantage at the line.  BG was 21 of 32 at the line and UT was 14 out of 24, most of which came from Stevie Taylor, who was only 4 of 11 from the line.,.the Falcons appeared to be using a Hack-a-Taylor strategy, which was good, because it was the only thing that slowed that guy down.





On the individual side, BG had 2 seniors who played career games.

Zack Denny had 30 points on 8 of 11 shooting, 5 of 5 from 3FG and 8 of 11 from the line to go with 7 rebounds and six freaking steals.  Here's the thing.  He's really been struggling from 3FG.  He only had 4 3FGs in his last 5 games and was 4-24 over that stretch.  So he had been cold.  He's never made 5 3FGs in his BG career, much less make all 5.  Beyond that, he made them when BG had to have them, to tie the game in the first overtime and two in the final minutes of the second overtime plus two vital FTs.  He scored BG's last 10 points of the game.  That's rising to the occasion.

Wes Alcegaire also had a big night.  He scored 22 points on 8 of 11 shooting and 2-2 from 3FG to go with 5 rebounds.  He had three straight baskets in the first overtime to bring BG back from the dead when they trailed by 7 with 90 seconds left.

Demajeo Wiggins had 16 points and 7 rebounds on 8 of 13 shooting.  He really struggled in the first half--both defending Taylor and making shots.  He had 14 points on 6 of 8 shooting in the second half in 15 minutes.

Antwon Lillard had 12 on 4 of 8 shooting in his best game in over a month.  Finally, not to be forgotten, Ish Ali had 10 points on 4 of 7 shooting and 7 assists and 1 turnover...that one at the end of regulation.

A couple line up notes.  BG started their "suspension" starting line up, but in OT it was Wiggins, Alcegaire, Denny and Ali who played all 10 minutes.

Another key might have been BG's deep rotation.  No starter for UT played less than 44 minutes.  No one for BG played more than than 42.  The UT starters played 231 of the game's 250 minutes.  You have to believe that had an impact on those final possessions.

Anyway, that's the story in two posts.  BG and UT are both 4-6 in MAC play.  If the season ended today, they would both be on the road for the MAC tournament, though the middle is bunched up.  (Note, no tiebreakers applied).



 This is BG's first back-to-back MAC win this year.  Next week is tough...@Kent and a red-hot Buffalo team at home the next Saturday.  BG's got to get the defensive side sorted out to get consistent wins, but for now, this is one to savor.

Falcons Break Streak, beat Rockets in Classic. Part I

Wow.  What a day.  BG and UT matched up for 169th time on Saturday at the Stroh.  The two teams have played some great games over the year and had some titanic battles, but this one has to join the list and be near the top.  It is one of the best basketball games I have seen in years and one of the best sporting events I have attended in years.  Huge drama, great crowd, big rivalry, back-and-forth play.  My adrenaline was still pumping 6 hours after the game was over.

As you know by now, BG was a double-overtime game, 104-100.  As far as I can tell, it is the first double overtime game in the history of the rivalry.  It snaps a losing streak for BG and gave Coach Huger his first win over UT....and this is a guy who gets the rivalry. It was a great night.

It did not start out great.  BG got off to one of their patented poor starts, down 12-2 less than 4 minutes into the game.  BG battled back and had the game tied with about 9 minutes left in the first half.  From there it was a closely fought thing.  UT was on a late-half run (as they did in the first game) and had a six-point lead when Malik Hluckoweckyj was in transition, made a move in the open court that put a defender on his butt and hit a layup to cut the lead to 4 at the half.  Big play, sent the teams into the locker room with a different demeanor.

UT started fast in the second half as well, with a 7-1 run that put them up 10.  They had that lead solidly until there were 10 minutes left, when they led by 7.  BG went on a 6-0 run there to get it to 1...featuring two steals by Zack Denny...and from there on in, for the next 19 minutes of basketball, it was a dogfight.

With 1:52 left, Lillard made a layup and BG had a 1-point lead.  BG fouled Stevie Taylor on the other end--an effective strategy--and he missed both of his FTs.  Navigato committed a foul over the back on the FT and Wiggins made both of his FTs to put BG up 3 with 1:31 left.

UT had a time out and when they had the ball Sanford drove to the baseline, drew help and then kicked the ball to a wide open Jonathan Williams in the corner and he drained the 3 to tie the game.

Both coaches cited defensive errors by their own team as a key factor in the game.  There was one for each.  In this case,  Coach said that BG was not supposed to help off Williams, yet "somehow, some way" we did and Williams made us pay.

The game was tied with 1:11 left.  BG had the ball, got Denny a good look from the top of the key, but he missed it.  UT got the board, called time out, and did what you would expect, which is to get the ball to Stevie Taylor, who was dominant all game.  He got the ball up on the rim from close range but it didn't go down and BG cleared the board.

At this point there were :07 left.  Ish Ali raced the ball up court, probably rushed it a little bit, went flying under the basket out of control.  There was contact, but you don't get bailed out in a situation like that.  He didn't get the shot off and the play ended up as a turnover.

Overtime.

Which also started poorly for BG.  UT was up 6 midway through the period and up 7 with 1:31 left.

And this is where I am so proud of our guys.  This was absolutely a chance to fold up.  Instead, they battled back.  Wes Alcegaire scored on a layup.  Zack Denny got a steal and Alcegaire scored on a layup.  Navigato missed a 3FG (no it happened) and Wiggins cleared the board and Alcegaire hit a jumper in transition to score again to get the lead to 1 with :40 left.

UT took a long possession on their end, and with the shot clock running now, Sanford made a huge play with a hard drive from the right side of the lane that ended with him sinking a hard jumper with :12 left as the shot clock went off.  Just a clutch play.

BG called timeout.  They were down 3 with :09 left.  This was UT's defensive error.  BG had dribbled the ball up court and called timeout after crossing halfcourt.  But UT ran a guy at the ball and it was clear that they intended to foul BG rather than let BG shoot a 3FG.  That's a little unusual...most teams don't do it with that much time left....but anyway.

So Coach Huger after the game said he saw that and decided to call a play that would generate a catch and shoot and not provide the opportunity to foul.  BG ran a play they say they have run in practice but never in a game, but it consisted of a series of screens with a look to Frye first and then Denny.

Kowalcyk said that his guys were supposed to stay on top of screens and guard the 3-point line but that isn't what happened.  Denny broke off a Wiggins screen and was just wide open on a curl.  He took the inbounds pass and drained a 3 to tie the game back up.  UT got back down the floor and Sanford got the ball off the glass and off the rim at the buzzer, but it did not foul.

Double overtime.

This one also did not start out well, as UT had the first 5 points.  BG scored the next 5 and it was tied again.  UT was up 3 with 1:39 left.  BG ran their offense and with 1:18 Denny drilled a 3FG to tie the game.  (Just a point here...for the previous hour the Stroh was just electric, pandemonium in the arena, just a great atmosphere).

BG fouled Knapke and he made 1 of his 2 FTs.  Denny rebounded, BG came down, ran offense and then Denny drilled another 3FG, this time a contested one, and the Falcons were up 2 with :28 left.  UT had no timeouts, ran offense and got Sanford a 3FG, which he missed.  UT got the board but in the resulting melee Zack Denny got his hand on the ball and caused a deflection which ended up in the UT backcourt for an over and back call.

Stroh Center is just exploding by now.  BG inbounds to its best FT shooter---yeah, Zack Denny--who was fouled.  He made both FTs to put BG up 4 with :09 to play and BG had the victory in what was just an epic game.

Here's one for you.  The game was 50 minutes long.  BG led for 2:30 in total.

Our guys sprinted directly down and joined the student section to celebrate.  The arena was crazy.  I was crazy.  People ask you why you love sports....that game is why I love sports.  So incredible.  So proud of our guys, who had multiple chances to fold and continued to battle and make huge plays.  This is one they'll remember their entire lives and so will we.

More to come.


Thursday, February 02, 2017

Rockets Chapitre deux

So, we're back.  Toledo is in the Stroh for a return match.  This is not a protected rivalry, so BG and UT only play twice on rotation, same as with any other east-west battle.  BG has lost six in a row to the Rockets and would love to be able to get a victory to snap a streak that, including football and both basketballs extends back way too far.

When the two teams played at Savage, there was nothing that gave Falcon fans any reason for optimism.  UT held a 20+ lead in the second half and BG never got it closer than 9 in the 2nd half.  It was never really a game and a 12-point final.

Since that game, UT is 1-3.  They were blown out @Kent, won @OU, lost at home to NIU and @Ball State.  The last two games were lost by 2 and 1 point respectively.  Overall, they are 11-11 and 4-5.

So, here is the report from the first game.  What's interesting here is that this could be the Miami-BG game, except that UT shot well and took good care of the ball.  BG was good on offensive rebounds, just as they did against the RedHawks...the other difference is the FTs.  UT was +10 in FTs and made only 18-31, or it would have been worse.  Hidden in the Miami game was a poor defensive performance by BG, and if they don't defend the shot better Saturday, it is unlikely they get a better result.



It is pretty easy to see how the game stacks up.  UT has the 2nd best offense in the MAC and BG is 8th in defense.  UT is 9th in defense, but BG is not able to take advantage...the Falcons are last in the MAC in offensive efficiency.



The key thing to the UT offense is shooting.  They are 3rd in the MAC in shooting and BG is 10th in defending the shot and UT's shooting is about where BG's defense.  UT also takes good care of the ball and they are slightly above average getting to the line.  Their biggest weak area is offensive rebounding.  They are 5th in the MAC in attempting 3FGs and and 4th in making them.  They are 3rd in making 2 FGs and that was the real issue in the Miami game.




BG is last in the making in FG shooting.  UT doesn't defend well, so if this is the night the Falcons get some shots to fall, they might have a shot at winning.  The rest of it is evenly matched, except FTs, where UT leads the MAC in keeping opponents off the line.  BG is 12th in 3FG%, 9th in 2FG% and 9th in FT%.



In the first matchup, UT had five players in double figures. Navigato made 6 of 8 3FGs on his way to 22 and Williams had 20 on 7 of 17 shooting. Sanford had 13, Knapke had 12 and Taylor had 10 and 12 rebounds.

For the year, Williams is averaging 20 PPG, Taylor 15 and 12.5 RPG and Sanford 14.

Look, BG is due for some unexpected success...in this series and in the season.  BG has not won 2 in a row in MAC play and could use a win over UT.  Maybe we can get a nice crowd and put a good game together with our new lineup and beat a UT team that isn't great.  That would certainly make a very good Saturday in February.

Last thing....here is an update on our two injured players.

Recruiting Roundup

The real goal....
So national signing day was yesterday.  You can see all the coverage for yourself.  Beyond that, I would add a few thoughts...

First, I'm perfectly happy with the job our coaches did.  To paraphrase the song, we might have "99 problems, but recruiting ain't one."  They might be new and untested, but the coaches are clearly good recruiters, especially off that season.  They brought in an excellent class.

Now, as far rankings go...I'm a little bit of skeptic.  What I like is that most of our guys were sought after by other schools.  Whether they are 2-star or 3-star...I'm glad if they are three-star, but these are 18-year old men.  Some 18-year olds are late bloomers, some are topped out...they can be coached up and they can mature.  They can be put into systems they can thrive in and they can be put into systems they will languish in.

Yesterday was a good start.  In fact, probably better than that.  But winning signing day is one thing.  Winning the big trophy---that's what it's about.  You have to recruit well to do that--as Coach Jinks noted with the strong Clawson recruiting years setting the stage for a big run--but you also can coach a guy up.

For today it is good.  We'll know in '19 if we are starting to get some results.

Maybe sooner.  Coach said he'd like to redshirt everybody but given our depth issues that might not be possible.  But, know that his ultimate vision is to redshirt a whole recruiting class.

Other general notes:

The Blade indicated there were 11 preferred walk-ons, too.  Those are not public until they enroll this summer.

BG went heavy on lineman.  Out of 24 players there were 5 O-lineman and 5 d-lineman.  Beyond that, 2 of the o-lineman were JUCO guys who could start right off the bat.

There also were 5 WRs, which is a big issue given today's offense.  Even if BG does go to a more running style, you might well have four receivers split out with one back.

There were 13 players on offense and 11 on defense.

The most interesting was Travis Koontz who was committed to BG, de-committed, committed to Toledo and then re-committed to BG.  There was talk of him having P5 offers and he could be a difference maker as a matchup problem out of the TE slot.

No kicker...though maybe with the walk-ons.

BG's biggest de-commit was Noah Harvey, who ended up at MSU.  Shows we were on the right track.  Best of wishes to him.  MSU is getting slagged for stealing a BG commit--which is as much a slam on us as them--so I hope he destroys some people.

Anyway, the recruiting appears to be in good hands.  It shows a re-commitment to succeeding on both sides of the ball and being strong up front, which has been one of the consistent things during our recent success.

Wednesday, February 01, 2017

Falcon MBB Cruises to Win

As my preview noted, BG was playing the only team in the MAC that has a worse rating than they have and it was at home and BG got what they needed, which was a comfortable W, 83-72.  Having said that, I felt like BG played among their better games of the year.  Certainly, we're not going to look down our nose at the win, which was needed.

Miami led only once, 10-8, about 6 minutes into the game.  A couple minutes later BG was on a +9 run to go up 7.  Over the last 5 minutes of the first half BG outscored Miami 9-2 and let by 15 going into the locker room.  From there on in it was no contest.  The lead was in double digits for nearly the entire 2nd half.  Miami did get it to 9 with about a minute left but in the end the Falcons cruised to the victory.

BG had 1.16 points per possession, their best since the Akron game.  They allowed Miami 1.01 per possession, their best in a MAC game that wasn't played against a team whose name rhymed with Schmall Schmate.  Here's what's weird.  Miami actually shot very well against BG.  They had an effective FG% of 65%, which is really good.  They made 72% of their 2FGs, the most in a couple years by a BG opponent.  They also made 38% of their 3s.

So wha happen?  Well, they had a horrible game for turnovers.  They literally turned the ball over 1 out of every 3 times down the court.  That's the most since BG played WMU in 2012  (on this day, in fact).  Their all-star PG Michael Weathers had 0 assists and 10 turnovers, which is just an incredible line.  He sat most of the second half.

How did BG make it up?  First, BG made 44% from 3FG, their best since the Norfolk State game.  BG took better, if not great, care of the ball.  And then BG had a very good day on the offensive boards and at the FT line.  BG was 23 of 31 from the line while Miami was 12 of 16.  That's 74% for BG, which among their better games this year.




Individually, it was interesting.  BG started the same lineup they used when the four guys were suspended.  The big surprise is Malik Hluchoweckyj.  He was getting zero minutes before, and he has now started twice and played very well.  Coach says he works hard on the defensive end of the floor and he had 10 points on 4 of 5 shooting in 19 minutes.   In this two games, he has made a real difference and adds depth to the overall unit.

The games biggest star was Wes Alcegaire, who scored a career-high 25 on 9 of 15 shooting, including 6 3FGs.  Zack Denny had 10 points but continued to struggle with his shot, shooting 1 of 7.  BG also got contributions from Rasheed Worrell, who had 8 rebounds, and Rod Caldwell, who had 3 assists against 0 turnovers.  Dylan Frye plays with a lot of energy but has been struggling as a starter as well.

Even so, I like our young guys.  They are freshmen.  It happens.  Ask Michael Weathers.

So, in come the Rockets Saturday.  This is a tough one.  BG hasn't won 2 in a row in the MAC since their tournament run this year.  And, kenpom literally projects them to lose out.  There's no better time to turn all of that--including the Rocket streak--around then this Saturday.

National Signing Day!!





It's here!  National Signing Day.  BGSU has you covered.  You can check them out on any social media you like, as well as here where the twitter feed will stream.  They will update as they get every LOI faxed it.  Later, they will do a presentation on the recruits and then I'll post a summary later.  For now, this feed is your best source of information.