Football Update for Monday

So, it has been the type of day we might have expected...and yet, the type of day that is hard to enjoy.

Coach Babers had his opening press conference in Syracuse.  He said he plans to take assistants from BG...specifically "all the good ones," which probably doesn't make CB Coach Mike Mickens feel very good since he appears to be the only one staying behind.  Coach mentioned Ward specifically, others are based on scuttlebutt.  Nick Monroe, who pre-dated Babers at BG, told a local reporter he is already on the ground recruiting, so that one is confirmed.  Coach brought his whole team to BG from EIU so this isn't surprising.  Anyway, a lot of empty offices.  The word is that they will be back to Coach the bowl game, but the level of focus has to be in doubt.

Tough day on the verbal commit front:

Based on twitter feeds, here is the news (there may be more).

Dirion Hutchins, a St. Louis area D-lineman has de-committed.
Evan Foster, who is from Michigan and whose brother played here has also de-committed.  Was offered a Purdue scholarship recently.
Terrance Landers. the top recruit and a WR (according to the rankings) has de-committed.  Would not be surprised to see him in Syracuse.  Info based on media accounts.
Sharif Saleem, a DE from the Cleveland area has de-committed based on his twitter feed.
Kyree Calli, a WR from the same HS Matt Johnson attended, has de-committed, based on his twitter feed.
AJ Garson, a TE from Florida has not de-committed but was visited by UCONN.
Cam Jeffries was offered by Air Force, according to his twitter feed.  Nothing explicitly saying he de-committed.
Elijah Cunningham was offered by Toledo.  Nothing explicitly saying he de-committed.

Anyway, that's the news as it stands right now.  Be strong, Falcon Nation.

Sweet Victory: MAC Title Game Offense

So here is the thing.  The BG offense as performed during 2015 is designed to be tough to beat because you can't commit to stopping any one thing.  Teams that tried to play base defenses found themselves giving up 600-700 yards per game.  So, teams did what teams do...try to take one thing away and see what happens.

In other words, do you want #11 to beat you or #8?  See, that's a tough call.

NIU made a clear choice...they were going to stop #11 and take their chances with #8.

They did hold Johnson down.  Yes, he had a good completion percentage with 25 of 37 overall, but the 25 passes netted only 235 yards, which is about 9.5 yards per completion.  About 20% of those came on the big Lewis pass, leaving 190 yards on the other 24 completions.  Johnson was also sacked twice and threw 2 picks.

As someone said after the game, BG kept facing "light boxes" so they did what you do when you are in that offense...you run.

Accounting for sacks, BG tried 39 pass plays and 51 runs.  Even with the clock killing aspects in the 4th Q, that's a lot different than we might have expected.

You take what they give you.

So, you want #8 to beat you?  Well, he can do that.  Travis Greene capped off his career (bowl notwithstanding) at BG with a simply commanding performance that made him the game MVP.  Greene was just an absolute beast out there for BG.  He carried the ball 29 times for 183 yards and 2 TDs.  That's 6.3 yards per carry.  How'd you like to cap your career with the most yards you rushed for in a game?  Nice.

He was simply unstoppable when he got to the second level.  It was among the best rushing performances in a critical game  that I can remember from a BG player.  He created miss after miss, broke tackle after tackle and pushed pile after pile.  I hope Falcon fans appreciate the incredible performer he was for our team.

Maybe his performance is best captured in the video here, where he got into the secondary and just abused Brandon Mayes in the secondary on his way to a 25-yard TD run.  (Note the Chris Kingston high-five after the score!).

Oh, and if that wasn't enough, you also had Fred Coppet 16 times for 85 yards and a TD, for a 5.3-yard average.  Even including sacks, as a team BG averaged 5 yards per carry.

Finally, you have to give credit to BG's offensive line.  NIU teams are historically very tough up front, but BG's line was consistently opening holes and getting Greene and Coppet onto the second level.  The line has been a strength for BG all year, and they delivered a virtuoso performance in the title game.

Said it before...just incredibly proud of our guys.  Many of these guys are two-time MAC Champions and all of them are Falcons forever and champions forever.

Defense to come.

Bowl Bid Enrages Many in Falcon Nation

And then the Falcon Nation found out we were playing Georgia Southern in the GoDaddy Bowl.

KA-BOOM.

People are really upset.  I'm not in the camp, for a few reasons I will spell out here.

First, the objections, which boil down to this:

We are conference champions and we deserve a better bowl with a better, more name opponent.

Among the things that have been said:

It is a garbage bowl.

I've never heard of Georgia Southern

We deserve better than the #3 team in the Sun Belt.

We should be playing Temple or Boise, both of whom got MAC opponents.

I don't care about the game, etc.

Etc.

A few thoughts.

Bowl invitations are extended by the bowls...not the MAC or anyone else.  GoDaddy had the first choice of MAC schools and picked the champion.  The tie-in is with the Sun Belt and they invited Georgia Southern.

If you've never heard of Georgia Southern, you aren't a very big college football fan.  They took Georgia to OT in Athens and easily beat WMU this year alone.  They beat Florida two years ago.  This is a solid program.  The argument that you never heard of them belongs in the same place it belongs when P5 schools say that before they play us.

They are a good team.  They play an option style, which is always tough for teams to defend when they don't see it, and we haven't.

Also, they are a multiple FCS champion and are new to FBS.  This is their first bowl game.  They are going to bring people and they are going to be stoked.  If BG doesn't come ready to play, especially with an interim coach, they could get blown off the field.

Would be it be better to play Temple or Boise?  Sure.  Would a higher-profile game have been a nice reward for a truly special season?  Yes.  But that wasn't what was available in the contractual agreements the MAC signed on to.

Will it make a huge difference in anything?  No.  We weren't going to earn anyone's respect beating Temple or Boise...we're always going to be an oddity.  Maybe we had a shot at ending up ranked.

Now, as it relates to the GoDaddy bowl...I think this is the best of the bowl opportunities we have.  BG has been twice and Mobile really embraces the game and you get a real bowl-week environment, as opposed to, say, playing a bowl in DC.

So, hey, look, it isn't perfect, but it's a real game.  We just won the MAC Title.  Let's enjoy life a little.  Bask a while longer.  Lighten up.  And let's beat Georgia Southern.

BG Notches Nice Win Over Drake

Not saying Drake is going to be a Sweet Sixteen team or anything, but this was a solid matchup for the Falcons and BG was able to put them away with relative ease--thanks to finally making some shots--and at 6-2 hopefully the team can keep building.  My own view is that while the schedule is soft, the team is a little bit better than I expected them to be so far.  Alcegaire, in particular, is making a real difference.

Most of the first half was tightly contested, with the leading changing hands a number of times.  It was tied 30-30 and then BG went on an 8-0 run to lead 38-30 with about 2 minutes left.  The Bulldogs rallied to cut the deficit to four at the half.  Four minutes into the second half the game was tied again, and BG went on a 3-minute 11-3 run (5 points from Denny) to take a lead they would not relinquish.  Drake ran the lead to 2 again, but BG went on an 11-1 run to pop it up to 12 with 6 minutes left and from then on in the lead only dipped inside 10 once as the Falcons cruised home with the 75-63 win.

The difference in this one was shooting.  BG has struggled to make shots--especially from 3FG range--in its earlier games.  Not so yesterday.  BG shot 49% overall and 65% from 3FG (which is just ridiculous...11 of 17) and when you do that you are going to be very difficult to beat.  BG had 1.14 points per possession, which is really good.  Meanwhile, Drake was supposed to be the hot shooting team, but they shot 42% and 25% and that role reversal was the difference in the game.  All the other measures were very similar.

Individually, Zack Denny was the man of the night.  He's been slumping a little bit, but he hit 23 points on 9 of 13 shooting and 4 of 5 from 3FG.  He also added 7 rebounds.  Wes Alcegaire also had a very nice game, scoring 17 on 5 of 11 and 3 of 6 shooting...he's a very solid MAC player.  Pep Joseph, who has been struggling to find his rhythm this year had 10 points on 4 of 8 and 2 of 2 shooting.  He also had 4 assists with 3 turnovers.  Spencer Parker did not score much, but he added 9 rebounds and 5 assists to go with 3 turnovers.

So, BG is 6-2 with 5 straight wins.  They travel to play SE MO State on Tuesday...they are 0-7 against the #35 schedule to date in the country with only one really bad loss.  BG ran the table on their homestand but have not played a true road game since FGCU.  It remains very interesting to watch this program evolve under Coach Huger.

Falcon Football Update...

Ok, so obviously a lot went on yesterday.  Let's check out what we know.

Obviously, Dino Babers is going to Syracuse.  Defensive Coordinator Brian Ward will coach BG in the bowl game.  Chris Kingston said yesterday that he expects all the assistants to coach BG in the game.  Exactly what that means isn't clear.  For example, when Clawson left, Elko and Ruggerio coached BG in the Pizza Bowl, but they did so after spending most of the time before the game at Wake.  There's no word I can find about what Babers is doing in terms of assistants to Syracuse, which could also play into it.

Obviously, I'm keeping my eyes open to see what happens.

The other event from yesterday was that BG learned it will be in the Go Daddy bowl in Mobile and play Georgia Southern.

I've seen some unhappiness on twitter about the assignment, which are based on a couple things.  People would like a higher profile opponent and a higher profile bowl.  Working in reverse order, the bowls are pre-decided.  This year, Go Daddy got to pick first and they picked the conference champion with the big offense and there's no surprise there and we should be flattered.

Also, I think Mobile is the best bowl experience for the players.  The town rallies around the bowl game and it is a big deal and they get a true "bowl" experience.

People are pointing to last year when the MAC did some maneuvering to get NIU to play Marshall, which was the C-USA champion.  It was a very nice matchup for the MAC. Having said that, apparently that wasn't available this year because BG is playing Georgia Southern.

By the way, more to come, but that's a tough matchup...not a high-profile matchup, but that's going to be a challenge.

OK, so what happens next.

This period is usually pretty chaotic.  You've got an entire staff either getting ready to go to Syracuse or trying to get a job for next year.  You've got recruits looking around and people trying to poach them.  At Toledo, you had the old coach trying to poach recruits.  And then you have only a few days until the dead period starts and you want to be in that "space" as much as possible.

I recall hearing last time that Kingston was involved in calling the recruits and keeping them on board and most of them did come.  I also recall hearing that Kingston insisted that the new coach (Babers) honor any commitments to the program and the previous staff.  Anyway, that's something to keep an eye on as well.

As for the new coach, my warning would be this.  There will be internet rumors and sites promising coach scoops.  Last time, none of them mentioned Babers.  This decision isn't being made by a committee, it is being made by one guy and don't get caught up too much in rumors about who we are thinking about.

BG has had success twice now looking for proven head coaches in FCS ball...and that same approach brought Chris Jans in as well.  Kingston said last time when he announced Babers that some people just are head coaches and some people are not.  By getting somebody who is already winning as a HC-as opposed to a coordinator from a bigger program--you can eliminate some of the guesswork.

In terms of promoting within, it would surprise me.  But I don't know the guys.  Maybe one of them is a "natural born" Head Coach.

Stay tuned....

Drake Preview

Well, with all the football excitement, we have men's basketball today, not to be forgotten.  This game has the potential to be interesting.  BG has been playing a soft schedule, to be sure.  Drake is a team BG beat in Iowa last year in our first signal that we might be better than we expected.  Still, they are in the Missouri Valley Conference...where they were picked to be 8th, but still.

They are 4-3 with an RPI of 244 right now.  They lost to pretty good Weber State and UMKC teams and beat Pepperdine and Western Kentucky (neutral floors) and those both look to be top-half D1 teams.  They also beat UIC (very bad team) and lost @Tulane.

Anyway, I think this has the potential to be a pretty good test for our boys.

This team is very efficient on offense.  They are the 25th best shooting team in D1...more on that later.  They don't play at a high pace, with 70 possessions per 40 minutes about a half possession below the national average.  However, they are earning 1.09 points per possession, which is significantly above the national average, which right now is about 1.02 points per possession.  This is going to present a challenge to the BG defense. On the other side of the game, they are a good defensive team and BG is slightly below average on offense.  Both teams have one non-D1 blowout that inflates stats....

As mentioned this is a very good shooting team.  The EFG you see here is about 7% better than the average, which is right around 49%.  Nothing else on their offense is special...their turnovers are slightly above average, offensive rebounding is really poor and they don't get to the line that much.  The most important of the four factors is shooting and it isn't close and they are shooting 49.9% overall and 44.8% from 3FG.  Also, their stats lines on the three less important measures are pretty close to what BG usually allows.

On the defensive end, you can see that BG is an average shooting team and Drake has typically allowed a little worse in terms of shooting %.  The profile here actually matches up really closely, with the exception of FTs.  Drake has done a good job not allowing FTs.

Based on that, I'd say we'd get a normal offensive effort from BG and the challenge will be seeing whether the Falcons can impact Drake on the offensive end.

Individually, they are led in scoring by 6'8" R-JR Kale Abrahamson.  He sat out last year after transferring from Northwestern, but this guy is putting up eye popping numbers.  He is scoring 19.1 PPG, which is in the top 60 in the country.  He is doing it with 47% shooting overall and 37% 3FG shooting on a team high 51 attempts.

He is joined by Reed Timmer, who scores almost as much, at 18.6 PPG.  He's a 6'1" SO.  He's shooting 54% overall and 55% from beyond the arc, though he has tried only 22 of those.  Those are both good numbers for a guard.  The overall shooting % would be good for a center.

Their PG is Graham Woodward, who is average 13 PPG with 3 assists per game at a 1:1 ratio with turnovers.  He's shooting 46% overall and 56% on his threes, which again are just really good shooting numbers.

They have a 7'0" guy from Denmark and Poland and they play about 17 minutes per game, almost like they split the game.  BG doesn't have anyone at that height, but I get the sense from the data that Drake plays small, which is a decent matchup for us.  Abrahamson will be a tough matchup with his size and ability.

Anyway, this is a good test for our guys.  Will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Breaking: Babers to Syracuse

So, it didn't take long.  The news is all over the Internet, Coach Babers is indeed going to Syracuse.

This is the world we live in.  If you win in the MAC, you move up.  Your choices are to win and face this challenge with coaching or lose and have it be like Gregg Brandon.

I like this better.

Babers leaves with my best wishes.  Man wants to ply his trade at a higher visibility institution and for more money, I wish him 100% the best.

He promised us he was 100% focused on the game last night and he delivered.  He promised to wait until after the game and he was good to his word.  He was 100% honest and won last night's game.  That's a championship.  In a world where coaches lie and hose players all the time, where Coaches talk about team and then act about self, he took care of the team's business first.

Contrast that with our last two and done coach...Urban Meyer...who made a big speech about how he was staying because his family needed stability and then left two days later.

And Babers is leaving a ring behind.  Unlike Meyer.

I'll be rooting for Syracuse and Coach Babers.  Thanks for a great two years.  It wasn't always smooth sailing, but you delivered exactly what you said you would and pretty much exactly the way you said it would happen.

Bon voyage.