Football Opponents now firmed up

Just a quick football interlude....the MAC rotation has been announced for next year's schedule.  Frankly, next year is stacking up to be a really tough schedule for BG.

BG will have have the same cross-over games next year with the West...and we know how that went this year.  Only difference is BG goes to WMU (who I would expect to continue to improve) and Ball State, who I would expect to be better than this year and then gets the Rockets at the Doyt.  That's tough...BG also goes to Buffalo and to Kent.

Meanwhile, OU, UMass and Akron round out the home schedule, which is good, since (I would imagine) Akron and OU would be our biggest opponents for the East.

No Miami again this year.

#BGSU football gets Ohio, UMass, Akron, Toledo at home in 2015. Buffalo, Kent, Ball State, WMU on the road. No Miami again next season.

The non-conference schedule is also tough.  BG plays At Tennessee, At Maryland, HOME v. Memphis, At Purdue.

Besides being undefeated at Purdue, that represents a tough set of games with no FCS opponent.  Babers' supporters are proud of pointing to his year 2 record at EIU, but that's going to require at least 4 big road wins.

Falcons Win #10, Stomp OU

The BGSU Falcons won their 10th in easy fashion on Saturday, using a powerful second half to put the OU Bobcats down by a 69-54 score.  It is BG's biggest win in the MAC in two seasons an over a team that is a traditional power in the MAC.  I doesn't look like it is exactly OU's best team--time will tell on that--but even if the Bobcats are weak, the Falcons went out and beat them easily, in the end.

With 10 wins, the Falcons are now 2 wins short of last year's win total.  The win was achieved without Jehvon Clarke, who was injured at the Kent game and in a boot on the sidelines.  I understand that BG doesn't think the injury is a long-term issue.

BG came out hot, scoring the game's first 6 points and forcing OU to burn an early time out.  BG never lost the lead.  BG led by as much as 7 but didn't stretch away from OU.  The lead at the half was 5.

Five minutes into the 2nd half the lead was still 5 for BG.  Just after the 12 minute media timeout, a Spencer Parker layup put BG up by 10.  In all, a 15-2 run ballooned the lead out for the Falcons.  BG led by as much as 21 before the final 15 point margin.

NCAA Basketball

BG had a very good defensive game holding OU to .89 points per possession.  The key was the 2FG.  BG was 8 of 21 on 3FG and OU was 8 of 22...BG was  9 of 11 from the line and OU was 8 of 11.  Those are even.  And, BG had only 2 fewer turnovers than OU.  The difference in the game was that BG shot 18 of 38 from 2FG and OU shot 11 of 35, which is 47% versus 31%.  That percentage for OU on 2FG is just terrible--you'd consider that below average for 3FG.  The advantage of 7 2FGs was the difference.

BG ended up at 1.13 points per possession, which is very solid.  BG now has 5 games over 1.1 points per possession.  Last year there were 3 and one was Earlham.

On other note, we did notice that BG had a tough night on the defensive boards against Kent.  They were back on point this time, holding OU to 25% offensive boards.

College Basketball Stats

On an individual basis, you have to recognize that Richaun Holmes is playing like a beast and is beginning to develop his consistency as well.  In 26 minutes of action, Holmes scored 18 points on 7 of 9 shooting, 12 rebounds and 5 blocked shots.  It is very difficult to have a better game than that.  he was a big part of OU struggling so much in the paint.  When a player is near the basket and feels the need to locate Holmes before shooting?  Dang.

Zach Denny had another nice game, with 11 point on 4 of 9 shooting and 9 rebounds.  Denny is a really solid player.  We expected a shooter, but he defends and plays defense as well.  Against OU, he showed the ability to run a shot fake at the 3-line, get the defender off his feet and then step inside the line for an uncontested 2.

Anthony Henderson had 10 points, also on 4 of 9 shooting.  Jovon Austin only had 2 points, but had 6 assists over 2 turnovers.  He is very active with the ball and is clearly much better an opening things up than BG had last year.  Joseph had 4 assists and 3 turnovers, as the two PGs continued to essentially split time...though sometimes they are on the court together.

Replacing Clarke, BG used JD Tisdale, who played 10 minutes and was solidly in the flow without generating any big numbers.  He made both his FTs, which is something after his nightmare year last season at the line.  Walk-on Matt Fox also played 11 minutes, drilling 2 treys.  Coach Jans noted after the game that when you have injuries you can develop depth for use later, and BG got very solid minutes out of these two young men.

So, at 10-3 and 2-0, BG continues to makes the Falcon Nation happy with the turn-around in the first season of the Jans era.  BG has won 4 straight since the Ferris game.  They have held 8 teams under .9 points per possession.  A real test looms Wednesday as BG travels to the JAR to take on the Zips.  East titles run through Akron..not sure this Akron team is up to their normal standards, but they present a big challenge and they are coming off a loss.  Can't wait to see how our boys do.

Not too cold for Chris Jones....

What's the windchill?  Did you say 11?  And who is that practicing in shorts for the Patriots?

That's right....former Falcon and MAC Defensive Player of the Year Chris Jones.  Here's an interesting story about it....Jones says he isn't trying to prove anything...and his teammates don't use the word "tough" to describe it.

Roll Along, Chris.

Here Kitty Kitty Kitty

And here we go.  The 1-0 Falcons now take on the OU Bobcats...perennial power in the MAC, but with a new Coach and maybe a couple holes.  Getting the feeling there's going to be a big crowd at the Stroh and we're going to be jacked up.  Honestly, have not looked this forward to a Falcon game in many years.

OU is 5-7 this year.  Their best wins are over Depaul and UNC-Wilmington, the first on a neutral floor and the other at the Convo.  They also lost at home to St. Bonaventure and, in their MAC opener by 10 to NIU, of all people.  Astonishingly, they have played only 2 true road games, losing them both.

As we look at the matchup, we can see a team that is a little less effective than BG on offense and significantly poorer on defense.  On our floor, that would seem to give our boys the advantage.

As you can see above, BG's offense and OU's defense are relatively closely matched.  And that is pretty evident in the chart below.  What BG is doing on offense is pretty comparable to what OU is doing on defense in all areas.  If BG continues to shoot well, that's a new story, but basically this looks like a pretty even and predictable match up.

Flipping it around, we can see how the OU offense and BG defense compare.  It is a little hard to see how OU is only getting 1 point per possession...they are a pretty good shooting team...they are hurt by relatively high turnovers, poor offensive rebounding and worst-in-the-conference FT production, both getting to the line, where they are last, and making shots, were they are 10th.  This end is the big challenge for BG.  The Falcons need to defend the shot effectively and then get their offensive rebounding mojo back and they have a shot to keep OU in check.  

Individually, it is important to keep in mind that OU is third in the MAC at possessions per game, so that will juice their scoring a little bit.

OU's leading scorer is Javarez Willis, a Texas Tech transfer who played sparingly last year but is getting 33 minutes this year.  He's a 5'11" G who is scoring 15.7 PPG on 45% shooting, which is pretty good for a guard.  He's a 38% 3FG shooter on 83 attempts (a lot) and 86% at the line.  He leads the team with 3.3 assists per game.

OU does have a nice inside game, and will pressure BG to defend inside.  The Falcons only have one true paint defender, so Dickerson and Parker are going to have to stretch up a little bit or this is a matchup issue.

The second leading scorer is Maurice Ndour, who you will be familiar with from last year.  He is scoring 14.9 PPG to go with 8.4 RPG.  He's shooting 45%, which is not great for a big man.

Antonio Campbell, a 6'8" SO is scoring 10.4 PPG on 52% shooting and adding about 7 rebounds per game.  He has also fouled out 3 times, so the Falcons could help themselves by getting this young player into foul trouble.

Finally, 6'5" FR Ryan Taylor is scoring 10.4 PPG as well, on 49% shooting but only 27% from 3FG.

Again, this is an exciting day for us as fans.  This is a winnable game at home, and, dare we say it, one we expect to win?  Looking for a nice crowd and for the joint to rock a little bit...looking forward to seeing the Falcons keep the good times rolling.

Orange Dagger! Falcons Start out MAC Play with Road Win...

So, last night was a pretty good night.  BG went into a place where they have not won in a long time, faced some severe adversity, rallied and then closed out a tightly contested game with Kent State to go 1-0 in the MAC with a road win and a win in division.

Just to get the disclaimers out, Kent was playing without their starting PG, Derek Jackson, who was suspended for the game.  Even so, this was a very nice win for BG and should provide some significant confidence moving forward.

It was not always easy, and there were a couple periods where BG was outplayed pretty significantly. With 7 minutes left in the half, BG was up 18-16, but Kent went on a 19-2 run in about 5 and a half minutes, which obviously represents a serious collapse on both ends of the court.  Down 15, BG did an important thing, which was to sneak 6 points in over the last minute of the game to get the lead inside 10, including a Joseph steal and run-out layup in the final seconds.  Coach Jans identified that at halftime as an important part of keeping BG in the game.

BG followed up on that momentum.  Five minutes into the half they were still down 7, but went on an 8-0 run to pop into the lead with 12 left in the half.  Kent wasn't done...they went on another run and with just inside 7 minutes left to play they led by 8 again.  In 4 minutes, BG came back on a 13-4 run to get back into the lead.  Spencer Parker scored 7 of those 13 points, and he's the hero of the second half.

BG never trailed again.  With a minute left Kent had it down to 1, and Parker pulled out his orange dagger and splashed another 3 to put the Flashes up by 4 points.  BG was up 4 until almost the end, when Brewer dropped an uncontested layup in to give the final margin.

College Basketball Stats

Even with Kent playing without their PG, this is a very solid win for our team.  The two rallies were great to see, especially on the road.  In a way, the second one was even better, because it seems that on the road is when you often see a team gas out when they fall behind that late in the second half.  As we continue to see what we have, we continue to get positive results.

The preview I did indicated this would be a tight game.  Both teams presented pretty similar profiles and it certainly was a tight game.  BG did not play great defense.  Kent scored 1.04 points per possession.  However, the Falcons had a better offensive day (obviously), with 1.08 points per possession.  The difference...believe it or not, was 3FG shooting.  BG has lacked a consistent outside shooting game for years, but BG was 8 of 15 from beyond the arc for the game and Kent was 6 of 21.  The preview noted that Kent normally makes more than their opponents, so this was big for BG.

The other thing BG showed was some adaptability.  They went to some full court pressure to take Kent out of their rhythm and also played some second half zone.  I think it is a sign of a well-coached and hard to beat team that can take multiple approaches on defense, especially if they are not committed to one style as a defining characteristic, like EMU.

Anyway, BG had a +4 edge in turnovers, which doesn't sound like a lot, unless it is a tight game.  Those possessions were critical.  BG only had 10 turnovers for the game, which is excellent.

Coach won't be happy with the offensive rebounding, as Kent had their way on the offensive boards.  Finally, the teams ended up even on FTs made, even though Kent tried 4 more.  BG went 10 of 11 from the line and didn't miss until the last 30 seconds of the game.

College Basketball Stats

On an individual basis, Richaun Holmes was the team's leading scorer with 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 blocks.  He shot 8 of 16 and 2 of 3 from 3FG, and the only serious blemish was that he made 5 of BG's 10 turnovers.  As mentioned though, Spencer Parker was the guy who pulled the game out.  He had 16 points all in the second half on 6 of 11 and 2 of 2 shooting, and each of the treys were at critical times...one gave BG the lead they never gave up and one pushed the lead to 4 with a minute left.

Jovon Austin was back after an ankle injury against Chicago State.  He's starting at 1 now and had 6 assists over 2 turnovers in 24 minutes.  Pep Joseph had 3 steals.

One note on Kent...this Jimmy Hall guy is going to be a player.  He is a sophomore transfer from Hofstra and had a career high 25 points on 10 of 15 shooting and 7 rebounds.  Todd Walker was comparing him to Jovan McCrea of Buffalo, which is not good news for the rest of the conference.

BG is now 9-3 with 4 road wins.  Excitement is continuing to grow.  OU comes in Saturday.  We have been drawing better and we could get a really nice crowd for that one.  OU lost at home to NIU and is having a disappointing season.  Be great to see us grind one out over them...and the cool thing is, you're starting to expect this team to succeed.

MAC Opener: Kent Preview

So here we go kids. Buckle in. The MAC season is about to begin.  Let's get 'er going.

BG opens on the road at Kent.  The Flashes have historically been very tough at home, although that has softened a little bit in the last couple of years, BG has lost the last four games at the MAC Center.  Overall, Kent has won 6 of the last 10, though the teams split last year.

Kent is 9-4 so far.  As noted in the MAC reset, they have some soft wins, and their best win was @North Dakota State.  Having said that, they have no bad losses....all are to a team with an RPI under 100.  So, without any big wins or bad losses, we are kind of at a loss as to how good they are.

Looking at points per possession, we can see that on an overall basis, the teams are pretty similar through the pre-season.  Kent has been a little bit better on offense but BG has been a little bit better on defense.   Therefore, both teams have a solid spread between scoring and defense, and on that basis, this shapes up to be a pretty interesting matchup.

The chart below compares the four factors for BG's offense and Kent's defense.  BG shoots slightly better than Kent normally allows, and Kent forces a few more turnovers than BG is used to making.  Rebounding is pretty even and the only place where there is a real spread is on free throw shooting.  Kent has put people on the line quite a bit and that presents an opportunity for BG, which does not typically find its way to the line a lot.

Flipping the situation, we see basically the same shooting situation....Kent is used to shooting better than BG is used to allowing.  BG is used to forcing more turnovers than Kent is used to allowing.  In this case, the biggest challenge will be on the offensive boards.  This is a point of emphasis for Coach Jans, but Kent has been at least decent on the offensive boards. 

One other thing to note is that Kent shoots 38% from beyond the arc, which is 3rd in the MAC.  They are +39 on 3FGs for the year, so BG will need to defend the perimeter effectively.

Individually, Kent is led by Jimmy Hall, a 6'7" SO who is in his first year in the MAC after transferring from Hofstra.  He's efficient, shooting a straight 50% and leads the team with 7.8 RPG, which is 5th in the MAC.  He is a poor FT shooter, so a Hack-a-Hall strategy is not outside the realm of possibility.

The second and third leading scorers are more familiar names, Deveraux Manley, a real weapon at 12.1/46% and 46% 3FG, and Kris Brewer (10.7%, but 38% shooting on all FGs and also on 3FG.  Brewer also averages 3 assists per game, slightly behind team leader Derek Jackson at 3.5.  Khaliq Spicer, at 6;9" also averages 6 rebounds per game.

Kellon Thomas played six games before being injured and has not appeared since.  He was supposed to be out a month, which started on 12/9.  Kent plays a deep rotation, with 10 guys averaging 10 minutes or more per game.

I think this has the potential to be a really competitive game, as both teams have presented similar profiles over the course of the season.  If Kent has the advantage, it is because they are at home (and giving away free tickets to fans who tweet pics of themselves in Kent gear) and because they played a slightly tougher pre-MAC schedule.  Having said that, BG has been able to play well on the road and has been very competitive.  The results of this will be very interesting and a win puts BG one MAC East road win up early.

MAC Basketball Reset....

So, tonight the MAC season starts out for 2015.  Always fun....little hint, look for UT to put the lie in CMU's face at Savage tonight.  Anyway, this is a good time to check in on the MAC and how teams have done so far.  Stats are courtesy of the incomparable bbstate.com.  For each team, I give the record, their RPI, their top wins (in the top half of D1 teams), their worst loss, and then their average RPI of wins and losses, followed by D1 losses, for reasons which will be obvious.

Followed by some commentary, in each case.

Buffalo (9-3, 35 RPI)

Top Wins:  @Texas Arlington (126), So Dakota State (157)
Worst Loss: @St. Bonaventure (156)
Avg RPI Win: 215
Avg RPI Loss:55
Non D1 wins: 0

In my opinion, Buffalo had the best pre-season in the MAC.  There are no non-D1 wins in there, and their worst loss was to a decent team on the road.  Their other losses are to Kansas and Wisconsin, so the Bulls have no serious hits on their record.  The East is down this year and the Bulls look to be the clear favorites.

EMU (11-2, 92 RPI)

Top Wins:  @UM (139), @Missouri State (159), Oakland (166)
Worst Loss: @MSU (53)
Avg RPI Win: 147
Avg RPI Loss: 36

Non D1 wins: 4

EMU is off to a gaudy start.  But what self-respecting team trying to prepare for a MAC title run plays 4 teams that are not D1?  Honestly, I think it hurts the MAC and there should be a rule limiting teams to 1.  Anyway, they have a big win over a down Michigan team and a couple of other decent wins and no bad losses...MSU and Dayton.  I still make UT the favorite in the West until I see more from EMU against D1 opposition.

CMU (10-1, 113 RPI)

Top Wins:  @McNeese (100), @Northwestern (102)
Worst Loss: @Bradley (289)
Avg RPI Win: 156
Avg RPI Loss: 289

Non D1 wins: 3

Look CMU is almost just as bad with 3 non D1 wins.  They do have two wins better than EMU and only one loss, though it was too a bad team.  Not sure the Chips aren't the second best team in the West.  The thing here is they are scoring points by the truckload.  They are 3rd in the nation in points per possession and are 2nd in the nation in effective field goal%.  They have the lowest turnover% in the MAC as well as the best rebound percentage.  How much of that came playing 3 non D1 teams?  Time will tell.

BG (8-3, 115 RPI)

Top Wins:  Wright State (98), Cleveland State (173)
Worst Loss: Ferris State (non D1)
Avg RPI Win: 236
Avg RPI Loss: 47

Non D1 wins: 0

BG has one of the best wins in the MAC against Wright State but also has the conference's only D loss.  Fortunately for BG's RPI that doesn't count in the calculations.  The average RPI win number is important.  Looking very forward to seeing how the 8-3 start translates to MAC play.

UT (8-5, 117 RPI)

Top Wins:  @McNeese (100), @Cleveland State 173
Worst Loss: Detroit (213)--Neutral Floor
Avg RPI Win: 218
Avg RPI Loss: 97

Non D1 wins: 0

UT was supposed to be the best team in the MAC and it wasn't supposed to be that close.  UT can't be thrilled about the season to date...especially the neutral court losses to Detroit and Oakland.  Also, for the team they are, I am sure they would have thought they could beat Oregon, though that one was away.  Anyway, I still make UT the favorite to win the MAC.

Kent (9-4, 144 RPI)

Top Wins:  No Dak State (168) Neutral floor
Worst Loss: UTEP (78) Neutral Floor
Avg RPI Win: 242
Avg RPI Loss: 52

Non D1 wins: 1

Last year broke Kent's streak of 20 win seasons.  Are they back?  I am not a Senderhof fan, but they don't have any bad losses or any great wins.  In a MAC East which is appearing to be more wide open than expected, Kent is a threat.

Akron (9-4, 163 RPI)

Top Wins:  South Carolina (87) USC (107), both neutral.
Worst Loss: Middle Tennessee 225
Avg RPI Win: 206
Avg RPI Loss: 133
Non D1 wins: 1

Akron is trying to put things together without Treadwell.  They have two really nice wins, though their worst loss is pretty bad.  They have a bunch of soft wins to go with their 2 good ones....5 wins against teams over 225 in RPI.  Akron is the East's most dominant program and I think they are a threat to win the East, though they have yet to show that without Tree they can be a serious threat for the whole MAC.

NIU (6-5, 199 RPI)

Top Wins:  Mississippi Valley State (262)
Worst Loss: @Dartmouth (218)
Avg RPI Win: 233
Avg RPI Loss: 139

Non D1 wins: 1

I'm not sure how NIU is ranked above WMU...honestly.  Anyway, NIU has been benefitting from a really soft schedule.  Their average RPI win is comparable to BG's, but they have not beaten anyone at all of any significance.  

WMU (8-4, 202 RPI)

Top Wins:  @Oakland (166),
Worst Loss: @San Diego (180)
Avg RPI Win: 215
Avg RPI Loss: 105

Non D1 wins: 1

Defending MAC Champs are off to an average start.  No real big wins to speak of and no really bad losses either.

OU (5-6, 215 RPI)

Top Wins:  App. State (175)
Worst Loss: St. Bonaventure (156)
Avg RPI Win: 229
Avg RPI Loss: 104

Non D1 wins: 0

Hustle Belt says this is the MAC's most disappointing team.  That's possible, just because you are used to them always being good.  Their win quality is obviously not good, though they don't have any terrible losses to speak of, either.  Those are all D1 games, so that's something.  I would still not be surprised to see OU line up a quarter final bye for themselves.

Ball State (5-6, 278 RPI)

Top Wins:  Indiana State, 219
Worst Loss: @IUPUI (265)
Avg RPI Win: 230
Avg RPI Loss: 127

Non D1 wins: 1

Ball State has really been struggling for a few years and this year is no exception.  No great wins (I mean NO great wins) and at least one bad loss.  I like BSU's coach, but progress is hard to come by.

Miami (5-8, 309 RPI)

Top Wins:  UMKC (315)
Worst Loss: @IPFW (290)
Avg RPI Win: 261
Avg RPI Loss: 141

Non D1 wins: 1

Clearly the worst team in the MAC.  All four of their D1 wins are at home against teams with an RPI of 315 of above, and they only go to 351.  They have some quality losses, but then also losses to Virginia Tech and IPFW.  Miami might be better than this, but they have do nothing to show it.