MAC standings....

Here are the MAC standings as of right now, more or less with current tiebreakers, except CMU and Ball State.  Anyway, BG would be on the road right now if the season ended today and they are kind of behind the eight ball with only 3 home games left.  Also, they lot to NIU and EMU, which is not good tiebreaker wise.

The next two for BG are on the road...that's the bad news.  The good news is that we play Kent and Ball State, both teams which are below us in the standings.  It would be a nice time to put together some road magic.

Akron Deals Crushing Blow

Keith Dambrot has only lost once to Bowling Green--that was in 2009 on a wild shot by Brian Moten that led BG to the regular season title.  Tonight, you saw why.  His teams know how to win games.  They are just closers...their guys make plays when they need them.

BG had rallied from way back...the Falcons never led in the game at any point...and with about 9 seconds left Jehvon Clarke nailed a miracle bank-shot 3 to tie the game.  Akron had time outs and most teams would call one, but Dambrot trusted his guys and just let it roll and Quincy Diggs nailed a cold-blooded long jumper to win the game for the Zips.

Ouch.  That's how you do it.  It wasn't the first shot that the Zips made down the stretch, but it was the most important one.

BG did what it seems to do a lot lately, which is fall into a big hole right out of the gate.  BG was down 6-0 and trailed by 10 or more for the most of the last 10 minutes of the first half before getting it to 9 just before the break.

BG then did what they also seem to do, which is to fight back.  BG got the lead down to 4, Akron pushed it back up to 10 with about 9 minutes left in the game.  BG went on an 8-1 run to get it to 3 with 6:38 left.  It kind of bounced around there for a few minutes and BG got it to 1 with about 3 minutes left.  BG was down 2 with 1:14 left.  Akron got a put back to go up 4.  

Spencer Parker was fouled and the ball appeared to be goaltended, but the refs did not give the +1 and he missed the front of the 1-1 ( meaning that the foul must have been on the floor), and he missed it and that set up the sequence I listed above.

Statistically, it was as close at it could be.  BG held Akron to 1.02 points per possession while stepping up to .98 themselves.  It was just one possession short.

The shooting was pretty much even and both teams had a bad game with turnovers.  BG got to the line 9 more times than Akron did but didn't shoot very well, netting out only +6.  The true difference was offensive rebounding.  Akron just devastated BG on the offensive glass and that got them 7 more shots than BG and 3 more FGs and 2 more 3FGs and that was enough for the narrow difference.

College Basketball

Jehvon Clarke had a good scoring game for BG.  He had 19 points on 8 of 14 shooting, which is a good night.  Ball-handling was not so good, as he had 4 assists over 6 turnovers.  His outside shot is not always there but I would love to see him drive to the basket more...he is very difficult to defend when he does.

Richaun Holmes had a double-double, with 14 points and 13 rebounds.  He was also incredibly efficient, making 4-5 FGs and 6 of 7 FTs.  He had 4 steals, 3 blocks and 3 turnovers.  And...one show-stopping dunk in the first half.

Spencer Parker had a struggling 12 points on 4 of 11 shooting.  Even so, when he is on the BG offense is a different story.  Finally, Cam Black showed a lot of offensive energy, with 10 points on 4 of 6 shooting.

So, BG falls to 4-6 in the MAC and right now is fighting for the a home berth in the tourney.  Also, they have only 3 home games remaining in the last 8.  They will get the opportunity for a couple of road wins as they play @Kent and @Ball State this week.  They have beaten OU and WMU on the road, played UT and Akron tough, beat Buffalo...it would be great to see them build on those performances and turn them into a couple road wins.

Zipper Problems Come to BG

The Akron Zips are the most consistent program in the MAC.  They are always near the top and this year is no exception.  Heading into the weekend's games, they are tied with UT for the top spot and have to be considered a favorite to win one of the two semi-final byes.  This team is good every year without exception.

Akron seems to have found the one thing MAC teams dream about---getting a winning coach that wants to stay.

In total, it has been a good if not great season for them.  They are 15-7, but 7-2 in the MAC.  They had nice wins over Oregon State and @Cleveland State.  In conference, they have lost at home to UT and @Kent.  They are 5-4 on the road, and have won @OU, @EMU and @CMU in the MAC.

Here is how the teams stack up.  You can see precisely how Akron is winning.  Note that we are now using MAC-only stats for these analysis to eliminate pre-season biases and to get a better reflection of how teams are playing now.  Akron has a good offense--that efficiency is #4 in the MAC--and they are playing very good defense especially in the MAC season.  In fact, during MAC play their defense is now better than BG's, which has been steadily creeping up.  Now, BG is also playing better offense of late.  You can see where BG might be able to get this game in a winnable range.

Let's see how that all happens, starting with the Akron offense against the BG defense.  Two of the four factors look pretty evenly matched.  The AK offense and BG defense are comparably average in turnovers and offensive rebounds.  The two areas where there the contest will be decided is shooting and free throws.  BG is going to need to hold Akron's shooting below that number and they have to do it without fouling.  BG is allowing a ton of FTs in MAC play and that's going to need to be fixed.  To BG's advantage, Akron is not a good FT shooting team...in fact, they are worse than BG.  This is a good team but not a terrible matchup for BG.

Flipping things around...I mentioned that Akron has a strong defense in MAC play and BG, in total, has struggled on offense in MAC play.  Some of that is held down by the dreadful start BG got off to, but as you can see here, what BG gets and Akron allows are exactly the same.  I think BG has a shot at putting some numbers up here, however.  I would expect Akron to concentrate on Holmes--as other teams have done--and the game will fall onto the guards and Parker.

Akron plays a very deep rotation, and this year is no exception.  This keeps down some of the overall stat totals.  The guys leading them are no surprises.  They have 3 seniors who are all between 6'6" and 6'8" who are leading their team in scoring and will put the pressure onto Holmes, Black and Parker on the inside.  Demetrius Treadwell is scoring 15.9 PPG on 45% shooting..with only 4 3s, which makes him relatively inefficient.  He is also getting 10 rebounds and 4 offensive rebounds per game, which is pretty huge.  Averaging a double-double.

Quincy Diggs is scoring 13.4 per game.  He's also pretty inefficient though, at 41% and 27%.  He is 2nd on the team with 5 rebounds per game.

The third leg of the stool is Nick Harney.  He is scoring 10.8 on 56% shooting.  He has 4 rebounds a game to go with that.

A couple other notes.  Their best 3-shooter is Jake Kretzer at 36% and he's 6'7" as well, which could be a matchup issue for BG (or any team, given the inside guys).

The PG position was well documented here last year, and there's no reason to get into it again.  Rafael Bettancourt is on the point, and he is not getting a ton of assists (3.1) but he is still at a 2:1 ration with 1.6 assists.

Akron is a good team and they know how to win.  This will be a game where BG has to play its very best game.  I don't think this is an awful matchup for the Falcons, though, and I'm looking forward to seeing BG keep the Zips off the line and win this one.

Fouls and Free Throws Doom Falcons

I have said this before.  You have to give our guys credit.  They are not a great basketball team and they are short-handed but they are not quitters.

BG went down 11-0 to what is probably the top team in the MAC in their arena with a big crowd that was rocking.  Just inside of 10 minutes, it was 26-10 and with 2 minutes left in the half UT was up 41-27.  BG scored the last 5 points to bring it to 9 at the half.

And then Falcons more or less brought it all the way back.  In less than 5 minutes, the deficit was down to 2.  With 11:30 left it was 1 and BG was only down 2 with 3:16 left.  From there, UT did what they do, scoring 12 points and allowing 7 in the stretch run to put the game away with a 83-76 final.

College Basketball Stats

BG started short-handed and then had ridiculous foul trouble that stretched things even further and yet the game was still very much in doubt with 3 minutes left and this on the road with an opponent that hasn't lost at home and has only lost 3 times overall.  Richaun Holmes had 2 quick fouls are barely played at all in the first half.

There's no doubt.  At 26-10, this could easily have gone the other way and it didn't.  No, BG didn't win and no, there are no moral victories...but they deserve credit for their performance last night.  It took a lot of guts and we should be proud of that.

In fact, the difference was free throws...and 3FGs and offensive rebounds, to a lesser extent.  BG held UT to 37% FG shooting, which is 10% below their average.  If anything kept BG in the game, that was it.  Now, UT made 8 3FGs (40%) and got 41% of the available offensive rebounds, which is even higher than their MAC leading norm.

Even with all that, it was still a game.  However, BG was whistled for 24 fouls and UT for 11.  Yes, you read that right.  BG was fouling at the end, but that wasn't the issue.  BG just committed a ton of fouls.  Now, maybe that's how they kept the shooting percentage for UT low...you tend to foul when you are out of position, so maybe a foul is a similar outcome as a made shot.

It was widespread.  Tisdale fouled out and five other BG players finished with 3 or more fouls.  It is a borderline miracle that BG did not have a worse problem with DQs.

The problem was that UT was great at the line.  UT was 29 of 35 shooting FTs...and BG was 7 of 8.  That was the difference in the game.

All those FTs gave UT an offensive efficiency of 1.19 points per possession, just a hair over their season average and the 3rd best game against BG this season.  BG had 1.09 points per possession, which is their fourth best D1 game of the year and their best offensive game in a defeat.  In my preview, I said that BG needed to hold UT to 70 to have a shot to win, and I was not far off.

BG shot the ball well and limited turnovers and had a better than average game on the offensive boards...it just came down to FTs.

College Basketball Stats

BG got very strong guard play.  I think most teams are guarding BG by trying to control Holmes, and the guards simply must produce for BG to win.  Anthony Henderson had an incredible night...23 points on 9 of 16 shooting and 4 of 7 from 3FG...with 7 rebounds, six assists, 2 steals and only 1 turnover.

Jehvon Clarke also had 23 points, but was less efficient, shooting 9 of 21 and 1 of 7.  He also had 7 rebounds to go with 8 assists over 2 turnovers.

Spencer Parker had 16 points and 7 rebounds, though he shot 43%.  Cam Black had 10 rebounds.  UT did keep Holmes under wraps...6 points and 4 rebounds.

Anyway, certainly would have been sweet to come all the way back and pull this one off, but I am proud of our guys for the fight they showed.

Signing Day Event Report

So, the whole thing is in the books now.  The first signing day for Coach Babers...which consisted of mostly players who were retained from the previous staff.  Anyway, here are the appropriate links:

First, you can watch the video of the presser.

Second, you can read about our players.

And third, you can watch the highlight video.





I watched the whole thing online.  The format was that they played the video and then Coach talked, so we didn't get a player by player commentary on the recruits.  Nonetheless, Coach Babers had some very interesting things to say.

Let me say this on a big picture level.  I don't know Coach Babers and have never met him, so I don't know what kind of person he really is.  However, he seems to be somebody we can really get behind.  He has an electric personality.  Definitely seems like someone people would want to follow.  I was very impressed with him at the opening and then again today.  I recommend watching the video so you can judge for yourself.

He said some interesting things.

First, he had the class to compliment Coach Clawson and the previous staff, since they recruited most of the players we signed.

Second, he said that when Kingston interviewed Babers, he asked Babers if he would be willing to honor the commitments made by the previous coach.  Babers said he would and he says he did, 100%.

Two things.  First, based on what I have seen, Chris Kingston is the right guy for us.  He is just starting, but this is not the first time I have seen something like this which suggests he gets the culture of what we want to stand for.  Those young men made a commitment to BGSU--not Coach Clawson--and the University should honor its word.

Second, you may have heard one player and his coach complaining about his treatment at the hands of BGSU.  Just a reminder that when those charges were levied, BGSU was not able to comment, based on NCAA rules.  So, an accusation that can't be answered should be taken with a grain of salt.  Which is why you didn't see it here.

We had a couple guys de-commit for their own reasons, but Coach says he honored all of our commitments.

Babers gave much of the credit for keeping the recruiting class together to Kingston.  As expected, "latecomers...were trying to disrupt the class."  Kingston got the players together during the interregnum, and created camaraderie among them as a group, using social media.  Babers said that when he arrived, the recruits were telling him about BG.  They included him in their fold, and not the other way around.  They were committed to BGSU and stay committed to the University.

So more points for Kingston.

Moving along, four of the new players are in school now.  They are:  Roger Lewis, Marcus Milton (both prep players), Nick Johnson (HS) and Clayton Nichols (Texas Tech transfer).  Especially for Johnson, this is a huge advantage.

Coach talked a lot about recruiting Ohio.  Coach Clawson did too, so we will see how far this actually goes.  89% of the players in this class are within 3 hours of BG.  Coach Babers said that we want to "live off Ohio," and that our recruiting patterns will be like a spirograph, which is something us older guys did for fun before there were video games.  That means that your start your efforts near home and go out from there, but that the most effort will be near home.

Finally, he had very interesting things to say about how young players will interact with the system.  He said that his system is "simplistic."  Which means that it doesn't take players a long time to learn it.  So, they will start camp off with the players in the depth chart as expected, and then they will stop and force the younger players onto the first strings to see how they do.  If they can play, he doesn't want them to languish on the depth chart coasting toward a predetermined redshirt.

Worked correctly, this makes everyone better, including the incumbent players.

Finally, he said that he looks for three things in players.

First, players who are leaders and (usually) Captains.  "Most people are followers," he said.
Second, players from winning programs.
Third, players who are capable.  And that requires good evaluation.

Anyway, really good stuff, I thought.  Check it out for yourself.  Whether Coach Babers wins or not is still to be decided, but I don't get the sense it is going to be boring.

National Signing Day Update

So, the signing day is underway.  I write pretty much the same post every year.  There is no doubt that recruiting is vital to success in college sports.  Having said that, you can't tell anything by today.  The ratings services might or might not have good evaluations, there's always a lot of smoke and mirrors and....these are 17-18 year old young men.  Some of them have peaked and some of them are late bloomers.  Think of yourself at 18...see what I mean?  Also, good coaches make players better.

Anyway, I always find one example.  Travis Greene, who just had the most rushing yards of any player in our program's history, was unranked on ESPN coming out of a HS and was a 2-star on Rivals, which basically everyone is.

A bonus:  remember seeing Paul Swan kill it in the MAC title game?  Guy was an unheralded recruit.

So don't over-react today.  Everyone is going to say they love their recruits.  Only time will truly tell.

BGSU has a blog they are running as the signees come in.  So far, there have been no surprises.  We had been carrying a Thomas Jones on our list, but Falcon Fodder said last night that he was going to Wayne State.  Other than that, all the players we had expected to see are in, so far as I can tell.  We could always have a surprise addition.

There was a little bit of shifting with the coaching change, but most of the guys are guys we had all along.  One other pleasant surprise is that Nick Johnson is enrolled, putting him in spring practice this year.

As of this minute, BG has 17 signees.  Also, there were last year's greyshirts, not sure what is up with that, plus a transfer QB.

Dino's presser is at 2.

Note: Based on this, it appears that everyone is in.

All 17 student-athletes had their NLI's in today by 9:15 am, a record according to @CoachNJ_Monroe #BGSUNSD #WeAreBG http://t.co/DZVAJ2DO12
— Scott Swegan (@ScottSwegan) February 5, 2014

Hated Rocket Preview

So the rivarly renews itself again Wednesday night (weather permitting) as BG and the Rockets tangle for the first of two meetings this year.

Look, there's no way to sugar coat this.  The Rockets are huge favorites.  They have come all the way back from the depths and are now probably the best team in the MAC, or at least in the neighborhood.  They are 18-3 against the 139th ranked schedule and have an RPI of 31.  At 6-2 they are tied for first in the MAC.  Their losses are @Kansas, @WMU and @OU (in OT).  They are 10-0 at home.

Unlike most college basketball teams, this is a team built on offense.  They are very efficient, at 1.19 points per possession.  That is #6 in the nation.  BG has been effective on defense, but has played poorly of late and that is simply going to have to be fixed.  UT is not especially efficient on defense, so there is an opportunity there.  BG played poor defense yet scored enough to beat Buffalo, so maybe that's in the cards, but if you want my bet, BG's a lot more likely to win if UT scores about 70 instead of the 83 they average.

What makes the Rockets offense so good?  They are a team without blemishes, really.  They lead the MAC in Effective FG%, Turnover %, Offensive Rebounding % and they are #3 in free throw rate.  In fact, they take ridiculously good care of the ball.  That turnover rate is in the top 10 in D1.  Finally, FT Rate is a measure of getting to the line.  They are #3 in converting FTs as well.  They don't take a lot of 3s (9th) but they have the best %.  This is an offensive juggernaut.

The flip side is that UT is not especially good on defense.  They are 10th in the MAC in defensive efficiency and they are as poor against the shot as they are good with it.  They force an average turnover rate and an average offensive rebounding %.  They are very good at keeping teams off the line...2nd in the MAC.

Individually, these guys have some very good players.  It all starts with Juice Brown, their PG.  He's scoring 14.5 PPG with 6.6 assists against 2.9 turnovers.  That assist number is 6th in the nation, though they do play an uptempo style that provides more FG opportunities.  He also makes 89% of his FTs and has a ridiculous ability to make shots in clutch times.  He's among the best players in the MAC and probably the best guard.

Justin Drummond is their 2nd leading scorer.  He scores 14.4 PPG on 53% shooting and 4.9 rebounds per game.  Rian Pearson is scoring 13.7 PPG on 48% shooting and 40% from 3FG.  He also averages 5 rebounds per game.  OSU transfer JD Witherspoon is scoring 12 on 58% shooting and 6.3 rebounds.  Nathan Boothe is scoring 10 a game on 47% shooting and 4.7 rebounds.

Anyway, that's 5 guys in double figures.  They are built this program very effectively and this is a very good team.  They are huge favorites over BG.  The Falcons are going to need to keep the game around 70 and play their very best game to win...something they have done on the road twice this year.  BG won @WMU and @OU, both places UT lost.  That's the kind of effort they are going to need.