Boom! Falcons Notch Huge Road Win

So, with about 14 minutes left in the game, honestly, you had to figure BG had next to no chance at winning today.  WMU is a good team and they are tough at home and they were rolling.  With 7 left in the first half, the game had been tied at 23, but WMU had gone on a 16-4 run to end the half and then over the first 6 minutes of the second half blown the lead out 3 more to 50-35.

And then BG came alive.  They have their faults, but they aren't quitters, they have played tough in every game.  They scored the game's next 10 points (8 by Anthony Henderson) to slice the lead to 5 and wake everybody up.  From there, BG had a 9-4 run...all on 3s (Henderson 2, Lyshe 1) and the game was tied 8:41 left.

Now you see this a lot.  Team executes a furious rally to get back into the game but finds they expended what they had to get it close and end up losing.  You'd especially expect to see the road team have this problem.

But that wasn't what happened.  WMU never lead by more than 3, which they did with 4:15 left in the game.

From here, BG closed the game on a 9-1 run to end up with the 5 point Falcon victory.

We'll look at the scoring in a moment, but let's keep an eye on the defensive side of the ball.  BG got a bunch of stops, holding WMU without scoring at all for the last 2:05 of the game.  That's impressive and that shows who the stronger team was at the end of the game.

BG was was 2 with about 2 minutes left.  Jehvon Clarke--he of the struggling shot--stepped back and nailed a 3 to give BG the lead.  The teams then traded turnover before Parker fouled Conner Tava.  He did BG a huge favor by missing both free throws.  BG came down and caught WMU in some broken coverage and Henderson had a layup to put BG up 3 with :15 left.

WMU had a shot, but their conference leading scorer, David Brown, missed a long 3 and Richaun Holmes--who had a very long day--grabbed the rebound and then converted 2 FTs and the game was over.  BG had a huge road win under its belt.

College Basketball

WMU is a strong physical team.  They were clearly determined to keep BG away from its inside game.  And, it largely worked.  Holmes battled foul trouble and shot 3 of 11.  Black shot 0 for 7.  Parker was 3 for 7.

What happened was interesting.  BG actually got scoring from the outside from the guards.  The key player for the game was Anthony Henderson.  I've certainly mentioned his struggling shooting, but the dude was just unconscious.  He shot 10 of 16, 7 of 10 from beyond the arc and scored 27 points.  The points and the 3FGs were both career highs.  He had 4 steals, too.

Jehvon Clake was 5 of 13 shooting, which is not great but he also made 2 of 5 from beyond the arc.  And JD Tisdale and Demarkeo Lyshe both nailed key shots as well.

So, WMU took away the inside game and the guards delivered from the outside, something we have not seen much of this year.

You don't want to project too much ahead, but I have said it before.  If BG starts to get some outside shooting, this team is a different team.

I don't want to leave the discussion of the big guys with their shooting.  They did contribute. Black, for example, had 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and a steal.  Holmes had 5 rebonds and 3 blocks...also 3 turnovers.  Parker had 2 steals...and 4 turnovers.

Anyway, just making the point.  They did contribute.  Just a tough night shooting.

BG was actually outshot a little bit by WMU, but the 3-ball evened it out (yeah, I really wrote that and its right).  WMU shot 45% overall and 33% from 3...while BG was 40% and 56%.  The other difference was turnovers.  As you can see below, BG had a big (-6) advantage in turnovers.  Offensive rebounds were an advantage to WMU, and while WMU got to the line more than BG, the Falcons made the most of what they had at the line, making 11 of 15.  WMU was also good at 14 of 20, but if BG had one of its normal FT nights, this result could have been different.

In total, BG scored 1.02 points per possession, which is not great but good enough for BG to win.  BG held WMU to .94 points per possession, which is .11 below their normal average.

College Basketball

So BG gets an very big road win, not just because of who and where it was, but also because of how it happened.  BG was way down and could easily have packed it in, but they rallied and then they finished and I hope they had a really nice bus ride home because they deserve it.

BG is now 2-2 in the MAC.  They go to OU Wednesday--certainly another tough assignment--but then have Miami at home Saturday.  This win means BG has a chance to go 2-1 for the week and end the week at .500.  Beyond that, you'd love to see the team develop some confidence and develop and outside game to go with the inside game.  Time will tell, but today was a very encouraging game.

CBS Checks in on the foul emphasis

So, CBS Sports has looked at the foul emphasis and they have a long article about it.  It is pretty interesting.  Fouls per game are going down, but you're going to have to win an argument about whether defenses are fouling less or if the refs have tightened the grip.

Scoring is up, year to year....4 points per game per team, and points per possession is up about .03, which doesn't sound like much but it is significant.  They are a little less than 2 team fouls per game more than last year, all of which suggests that defenses are beginning to adjustl

The most interesting thing is looking at the weekly data they compiled.  Essentially, while points per possession has remained stable, the total number of possessions has steadily dropped and with it the points per game.  I don't understand why.  Fouls have dropped as well, but you'd think an open floor will bring quicker baskets, but apparently that's not happening.

Which, in the end, means that the NCAA is not going to get what they wanted with this emphasis.  Scoring is continuing to languish.  My prediction is that the next thing they try is to bring the shot clock down again.

That might or might not work.  Here's the thing...what if the real issue is that the players are not skilled on the offensive end of the floor?  Reducing the shot clock could make the problem worse.

The re-focus on the fouls was the right thing to do for the game.  Whether it gets the results the NCAA wants is another matter.  It may be that the lower scoring games are how things are going to look.

On the road....Bronco Preview

OK, so BG makes its first road trip to Kalamazoo to play the WMU Broncos.  That's a tough opening assignment for the Falcons.

BG has a two-game winning streak against WMU, which is notable because they had lost something like 14 out of 15 before that in all manner of venues.  BG won the last game at K-Zoo.

Still, WMU is 6-1 at home, including a smack-down of the Rockets, who are, as I write this, about to score a double-digit win at the JAR.  Overall, they are 9-6 with 1 non-D1 win.  They opened the season with a very good win over New Mexico State.  The remainder of their wins are less impressive.  On the other hand, their worst loss was @Northwestern, which has an RPI of 150, so there are no bad losses on the docket.

They are 2-1 in the MAC.  They won vs UT, @Miami and then lost in a blowout @EMU.

FWIW, twice they have been held under 40 points this year, which is 1 time more than BG.  Never at home, though.

WMU has always played a very physical game.  During last year's game, they were very physical.  They seem to have adjusted to whatever is going on in the college game, however.  they are only getting 1.7 fouls more per game than last year and they are in the middle of the NCAA pack, so it appears to have not been an issue.

Here is how the basic game stacks up.  WMU has been a very efficient team on offense and BG has been very efficient team on defense.  We have wondered for a while how BG would defend against a good opponent, and we'll find out more tomorrow.  As noted, there have been a couple stinko offensive performances for WMU, but on average they have been efficient.  They have typically played at 67-68 possessions, which is the same as BG and right around the NCAA average.

On the other end, WMU is a good defensive team, considerably better than the NCAA average.  BG is going to need to bring the offense they had against CMU in this one against a better defensive team.

Breaking it down a little bit more, we can see what has made the offense efficient.  They are a solid shooting team (45% and 32%).  They try about twice as many 3s as BG does, which is still not a lot.  They take decent care of the ball, are above average on the offensive boards and get to the line a ridiculous amount.   That's the 10th best FT% rate in the country, and they are 11th in the country in terms of percentage of point from FTs.  They shoot 70%, which is just a little above average but good enough when you are getting all those attempts.

That's a good place to keep your eye on.  BG has done a nice job keeping teams off the line, as you can see, but this will be a challenge.  And, I am concerned about offensive rebounds.  The season numbers are similar, but BG has not always excelled in this area, and will need to at least do this well in order to get the stops they need to win...which is a big number.

Flipping things around, this looks to be a pretty even .  WMU is allowing its opponents to shoot pretty much where BG has been shooting so far.  WMU does not create a lot of turnovers and they are just OK on the offensive boards.  They are keeping teams off the line (they have tried 94 more FTs than their opponents).  BG is going to need to get to the line and make FTs for this road game.

Individually, the Broncos are lead by the MAC's leading scorer, 6'3" SR G David Brown, who is scoring 18.8 points per game.  He is not terribly efficient...he is shooting only 41% with 29% from 3 (#7 in MAC, surprisingly) and he leads the MAC in 3FG attempts.  BG has been mixing zone and man, but this would seem to point us to the idea that BG is going to need to play man and take care of Brown.

Shayne Whittington is also a very effective player.  He's scoring 13.8 points per game on 49% shooting and 9 rebounds per game, which is 3rd in the MAC.  He is 6'11" and a Sr.  Obviously, this is a big assignment for Cam Black and the BG bigs.

They are supplemented by a very good 6'5" SO...Conner Tava.  He is scoring 13 points a game on 63% shooting and adds 5 rebounds per game.

This is a tough assignment for BG.  BG has won on the road and has shown the ability to compete in a tough assignment (EG, Xavier), but there's no margin for error.  They have to play good defense against a team that can play inside and out, avoid fouling, play physical and then BG has to bring at least a respectable offensive effort.

Three Offensive Tiers for BG....

I noticed an interesting trend for the BG men's basketball team when I was looking at points per possession.  In a way I don't recall seeing for any team so far, there have actually been 3 BG offensive teams this year.  As you can see above, the offensive games are clumped together in discrete groups...Those above 1.08, between .98 and .92, and then below .78.  Those gaps are just really unusual.

So there is Team A.  This is a good offensive team.  In D1 this year, the median team is scoring 1.06 points per possession.  In 4 games BG has scored higher than that, and they have won each of those games.  This team has yet to show up on the road.

Then, there is Team B.  This team is well below average and BG is 2-4 in that group, including a road win @Morehead State.

Finally, there is Team C, an awful offensive team.  BG is 0-5 in those games, including 3 home losses.  Even sadder is that BG played pretty good defense in a few of these games, and essentially wasted some pretty good offensive performances.  Anyway, you'd be hard pressed to win any games at that kind of efficiency.  The IPFW game was .28 points per possession below average.

Taking B and C together, BG is 2-9 in games where is scored less than 1 point per possession and 4-0 when it scores above 1.08.  (I eliminated the Earlham game).

Anyway, the key point here is that the offense is either decent, bad or terrible and the team has needed at least decent offense to win consistently.

BG Football Class Looks ready to lose 2nd O-lineman

Centerville (Ohio) OL Jared Weyler, who is visiting #Minnesota next weekend, is at Miami (Ohio) today: http://t.co/NLEUxwFfuY
— Allen Trieu (@AllenTrieu) January 18, 2014

Congrats to Jared Weyler for receiving an offer from the University of Minnesota last night! #EPND
— John Puckett (@JohnPuck4) January 17, 2014

The news from twitter appears to be that BG's 2nd O-lineman in next year's class has de-committed and will head elsewhere.  As you can see, he has a Big 10 offer from Minnesota and is visiting Miami.   Weyler is from Centrville, a long-time BG pipeline.

People are going to jump on this and blame it on the switch to a spread offense.  I wouldn't over interpret what is going on.  The first young man is playing at a very good FBS FCS program near home and this young man has a Big Ten offer.

And, when BG was playing effective spread football, they always had a strong o-line.  I'm sure it remains a priority.

BG still has 2 o-lineman in the class.

Falcon POV Video on making a Kill--Very Cool.

Jack Carle of Sentinel-Tribune Interviews Coach Babers

Jack Carle of the Sentinel had a chance to sit down and talk with Coach Babers.  It is absolutely worth a read.  Our new coach is certainly an interesting guy.  Yeah, I mean, he did the whole, "no job is guaranteed thing" which is what everyone always says, but there's stuff in there about him not being into making guys wrestle on mats (something I like), treating the current team like champions, and why he isn't watching any game film from last year.

The one thing to note is about recruiting.  He expects to sign about 20 guys and it sounds like what we have right now is more or less going to be what we will move forward with...which is all well and good as long as they turn out to be good players, which is no different than any other year.  Some guys are in school, but he's going to reveal all that on 2/5.  The assistants will be formally announced after that.

No players have asked for a release.

Anyway, check the story out.